Portfolio Risk & Liquidation Cockpit

Thu 20 Aug 2026 02:23 SGT (ET 2026-08-19) · live IBKR account summary + positions + greeks, TIMS-race liquidation model (margin shrinks as prices fall). Read-only. Betas and margin intervals are the measured Risk Navigator values; each account's t0 margin is calibrated to the broker's own number.
Main   3.6x
NLV $1,517,367 · excess $788,396
PM floor not within -60% to not within -60%
Neville   5.4x
NLV $696,153 · excess $284,369
PM floor ~-23% to ~-29%
Joint   3.7x
NLV $688,405 · excess $315,343
PM floor ~-38% to ~-42%
Retired   3.8x
NLV $378,432 · excess $160,725
PM floor ~-20% to ~-24%

Cross-account roll-up

AccountNet LiqMaint marginExcess LiqCushionCash / loanGross positionBeta Delta $Leverage
Main$1,517,367$726,707$788,3960.52$838,710$3,320,983$5,393,4623.55x
Neville$696,153$411,709$284,3690.41$296,226$1,622,587$3,726,8635.35x
Joint$688,405$373,024$315,3430.46-$351,004$1,617,951$2,578,0913.75x
Retired$378,432$217,707$160,7250.42$482,071$613,088$1,444,6763.82x
TOTAL$3,280,356$1,729,147$1,548,833$1,266,002$7,174,609$13,143,0924.01x
Every 1% move in the S&P is worth about $131,431 to the book (Beta Delta $ / 100). Leverage is Beta Delta $ over Net Liq: the book behaves like $13,143,092 of S&P-equivalent exposure on $3,280,356 of equity.

Liquidation distance and scenario grid (corrected TIMS-race model)

AccountNLV nowNLV -10%-20%-30%-40%Excess -20%Excess -30%IBKR liquidation (flat / crash-vol)~$100k PM floor (flat / crash-vol)
Main$1,517,367$987,166 (-35%)$548,799 (-64%)$304,910 (-80%)$228,667 (-85%)$275,136$155,246none within -50% / none within -50%not within -60% / not within -60%
Neville$696,153$364,003 (-48%)$130,212 (-81%)$32,878 (-95%)$36,446 (-95%)-$3,211-$45,739-20% / -32%~-23% / ~-29%
Joint$688,405$438,711 (-36%)$248,219 (-64%)$139,753 (-80%)$91,802 (-87%)$132,011$83,796none within -50% / none within -50%~-38% / ~-42%
Retired$378,432$226,287 (-40%)$98,033 (-74%)$35,022 (-91%)$16,736 (-96%)$41,670$12,517none within -50% / none within -50%~-20% / ~-24%
TOTAL$3,280,356$2,016,166$1,025,263 (-69%)$512,564 (-84%)$373,652$445,607$205,820
Moves are beta-weighted: an S&P -20% is a ~-55% move in the crypto/miner names at their betas. "Liquidation" is the first move where excess liquidity hits zero (crash-vol spikes IV as prices fall with put skew (puts ramp harder than calls, crypto hardest), which is realistic. Flat holds IV constant (a crash with no vol spike, which cannot happen), so for this net-long-volatility book it UNDERSTATES survivability; the truth sits between the two, nearer crash-vol for the well-hedged accounts. The PM floor is where NLV drops below ~$100k and IBKR reverts the account to Reg-T, which force-reduces it regardless of the crossover; it is the effective liquidation point for the thin accounts. Both liquidation and PM-floor columns now share the same vol assumption (flat / crash-vol), so read each as a range. House margin hikes on volatile names in a real crash pull both ends closer.

Beta Delta $ concentration (all accounts)

NameBeta Delta $% of bookLoss at S&P -20% (linear)
BMNR$1,908,13815%-$381,628
MU$1,770,42513%-$354,085
IREN$1,085,0408%-$217,008
COIN$842,4956%-$168,499
GLXY$832,6536%-$166,531
MARA$693,7195%-$138,744
GOOG$686,5495%-$137,310
SPY$665,8965%-$133,179
SNDK$400,9813%-$80,196
MSTR$380,2823%-$76,056
RKLB$376,0063%-$75,201
IBIT$298,0332%-$59,607
META$240,5672%-$48,113
DELL$234,5572%-$46,911
Other (29 names, table below)$2,727,75121%-$545,550
Total$13,143,092100%-$2,628,618

The other 29 names

NameBeta Delta $% of bookLoss at S&P -20% (linear)
COPX$234,2232%-$46,845
AMD$226,4652%-$45,293
SPCX$211,1782%-$42,236
TSLA$209,2272%-$41,845
ETHA$203,1182%-$40,624
AMZN$158,6421%-$31,728
NVDA$157,7331%-$31,547
CRWV$151,5811%-$30,316
GLD$125,5661%-$25,113
QCOM$123,3211%-$24,664
IGV$119,8941%-$23,979
HIMS$115,9861%-$23,197
NOW$113,4011%-$22,680
INTC$109,4101%-$21,882
CLSK$71,9451%-$14,389
PATH$70,2591%-$14,052
ENPH$68,1251%-$13,625
APP$44,3280%-$8,866
MDB$44,2120%-$8,842
SBET$43,3680%-$8,674
NEM$35,0580%-$7,012
QUBT$25,9060%-$5,181
MSTX$17,7170%-$3,543
BTBT$15,7150%-$3,143
BTCS$12,7470%-$2,549
EOSE$10,3520%-$2,070
CAN$8,1740%-$1,635
ECHO$1000%-$20
OPEN1$00%+$0
Other subtotal$2,727,75121%-$545,550

Assignment radar (short puts near early exercise)

AccountShort putContractsMarkTime value / shCarry / sh / yrCushion (tv/carry)Cash if assignedAccount cashStatus
JointOPEN1 10P356.75-3.250.40-8.1x$35,000-$351,004exercise rational now
JointEOSE 15P1011.650.300.600.5x$15,000-$351,004exercise rational now
MainCOIN 330P25180.3010.5713.200.8x$825,000$838,710exercise rational now
NevilleGOOG 405P577.2813.2016.200.8x$202,500$296,226exercise rational now
MainGLD 450P1057.6518.8318.001.0x$450,000$838,710watch
JointQUBT 22P2514.701.040.881.2x$55,000-$351,004watch
JointBTBT 4P1002.800.200.161.3x$40,000-$351,004watch
NevilleSPCX 195P565.0010.117.801.3x$97,500$296,226watch
RetiredAPP 540P1256.8028.4121.601.3x$54,000$482,071watch
A deep-in-the-money put with less time value than the interest on its strike (cushion < 1.0x) is rational for the holder to exercise early; you would be assigned the stock at the strike and must fund it in cash (red = the account cannot, so it goes on a margin loan). Roll it down or buy it back to remove the overhang on your timing.

Shares-as-margin-valve (the fallback lever)

AccountStockSharesValue nowMaint freed if sold nowif sold at -20%at -40%
JointBMNR8,800$176,088$89,805$37,000$1,796
MainBMNR7,500$150,075$76,538$31,534$1,531
JointIBIT5,000$193,350$50,271$35,793$21,315
JointMSTR1,000$103,560$44,531$20,217$891
MainMARA10,000$95,600$27,724$10,923$554
NevilleRKLB1,000$76,220$22,104$8,797$442
MainMSTR300$31,068$13,359$6,065$267
MainSBET3,000$20,850$7,714$4,505$1,296
Total$846,811$332,046$154,834$28,092
Selling stock frees roughly its margin interval times its value, and the position carries no convexity, so it is the cleanest maintenance lever. But the valve shrinks in the drawdown where you would pull it (a stock worth half as much frees half as much margin); it is a cushion, not a rescue, and it does nothing for the PM floor since it converts stock to cash without moving NLV.

Recovery tracker (whole-book, all accounts)

IBIT   spot 38.67 · unrealized on the book -$321,763 · breakeven vs today $38.67 · vs basis $71.10

IBIT price$45$60$80$120
Change vs today+$36,243+$183,714+$437,462+$993,314
vs original basis-$285,520-$138,049+$115,699+$671,551

COIN   spot 160.27 · unrealized on the book -$251,952 · breakeven vs today $160.27 · vs basis $340.08

COIN price$200$300$400$600
Change vs today+$63,726+$194,088+$346,612+$714,436
vs original basis-$188,227-$57,865+$94,660+$462,484

MARA   spot 9.56 · unrealized on the book -$154,011 · breakeven vs today $9.56 · vs basis $17.77

MARA price$15$20$25$40$100
Change vs today+$99,549+$207,608+$354,866+$955,405+$4,215,080
vs original basis-$54,462+$53,597+$200,855+$801,394+$4,061,068

BMNR   spot 20.01 · unrealized on the book -$703,074 · breakeven vs today $20.01 · vs basis $39.76

BMNR price$25$30$50$70$100$150
Change vs today+$165,344+$338,522+$1,115,494+$1,970,285+$3,309,238+$5,592,324
vs original basis-$537,730-$364,552+$412,420+$1,267,212+$2,606,164+$4,889,250
Instant reval (if the name gapped to that price today), Black-Scholes at each leg's implied vol, all accounts, shares plus every option leg. "Breakeven vs today" is the price at which holding neither gains nor loses from here; it drifts up over time as near-ATM long calls burn time value. "Vs basis" adds back the unrealized loss already on the book (approximate; uses IBKR average cost).
Model: module_risk_cockpit (tested). Betas and intervals measured from the 2026-08-16 Risk Navigator exports; refresh occasionally. Off-RTH marks are FROZEN/DELAYED and greeks are Black-Scholes fallbacks; re-run in RTH for live greeks. Not licensed advice; read-only, no orders.