Built Thu 20 Aug 2026 02:54 SGT from the live book (IBKR account summary, positions, greeks) and Trade Query income. Every number below is computed by the same engine as the Risk Cockpit (module_risk_cockpit), not asserted. Portfolio-construction analysis, not licensed advice; nothing here places orders. Marks are the latest FROZEN quotes; new legs priced Black-Scholes at chain-implied vols.
1. Today's book owns the right upside in the wrong instruments. The BMNR/MARA/MSTR/IBIT convexity you want is held mostly as shares (linear, 51% margin, zero yield) and deep short puts (the financing legs the drawdown turned into a second accidental long). They are what make the book 4.0x, what put two accounts within -20 to -25% of the portfolio-margin floor, and what made a -30% day an existential event.
2. The same upside, re-bought as long-dated call spreads, costs a fraction of the capital and none of the margin. ~$310k of premium (9% of equity) buys a ladder paying up to $6.45M at your targets; combined with the long calls you already own the crypto sleeve pays MORE than today at every target node, and its worst case is the premium. No assignment, no margin call, no forced sale at the bottom.
3. The income engine is kept, trimmed where it is thin, and given two more fortresses. MU, GOOG, RKLB, IREN, COIN, COPX, AMZN, DELL, QCOM, INTC, META, AMD, NVDA, GLD, HIMS, IGV stay; SNDK, half of SPY and a third of GOOG come out of Neville; every deep short put in the book is rolled to at-the-money. Income run-rate goes from ~$87k to ~$93k a month plus ~$4k of interest on a bigger cash buffer.
4. Liquidation risk is engineered out, MTM volatility is not. Margin-consuming exposure falls from $6.1M to $1.8M; no account has a liquidation crossover or PM-floor crossing inside the tested range. But the crypto sleeve is still crypto: at an S&P -20% the book is still down ~64% (vs 69% today) on paper. That is the honest price of keeping a shot at $10M to $25M, and there is a dial for it below.
| Today | Ideal | |
|---|
| Net Liq (after ~1% friction on what is traded) | $3,288,463 | $3,245,156 | |
| Beta Delta $ (S&P-equivalent exposure) | $13,157,190 | $12,155,199 | headline leverage 4.00x → 3.75x |
| of which margin-consuming (shares, short puts, short calls) | $6,054,721 | $1,812,293 | this is what can force a liquidation: -70% |
| of which paid-for (long calls / hedge puts, worst case = premium) | $7,102,469 | $10,342,906 | cannot cause a margin call |
| Maintenance margin (model, calibrated to broker) | $1,729,228 | $1,560,057 | |
| Excess liquidity | $1,559,235 | $1,685,100 | |
| Cash (Joint loan cleared) | $1,266,002 | $1,250,250 | 39% of equity in cash |
| NLV at S&P -20% (flat vol) | $1,029,072 (-69%) | $1,175,102 (-64%) | +$146,031 of equity preserved |
| NLV at S&P -30% (flat vol) | $514,292 (-84%) | $763,953 (-76%) | +$249,661 |
| NLV at S&P -20% (crash vol, skewed) | $1,353,304 | $1,535,187 | |
| NLV at S&P +20% | $5,324,456 | $5,215,164 | upside kept |
| Crypto sleeve at BMNR 50 / MARA 25 / COIN 300 / IBIT 60 | +$2,358,267 | +$2,607,844 | better |
| at BMNR 100 / MARA 40 / COIN 450 / IBIT 90 | +$6,372,506 | +$6,734,804 | better |
| at BMNR 150 / MARA 100 / COIN 600 / IBIT 120 | +$13,519,325 | +$13,506,705 | equal |
| Worst case of the crypto moonshot ladder | shares can halve again; deep puts get assigned | $308,026 premium, that is all | defined risk |
| CC income run-rate, 90d basis | $86,873/mo | $92,948/mo + $4,125 interest | 180d basis: $72,551 → $75,714 |
| Accounts with an IBKR liquidation crossover inside -50% (flat vol) | Neville, Joint | Main | |
| Accounts crossing the ~$100k PM floor inside -60% (flat vol) | Neville, Joint, Retired | none | |
| Realized P&L booked by the transition | | -$2,059,758 | already in Net Liq; no tax in Singapore |
Ideal includes a cash rebalance between your identically-titled accounts (Main → Neville $150,000, Main → Retired $50,000; confirm with IBKR that internal transfers are permitted on your pairing). Retired goes from 3.8x to 2.6x and Neville from 5.3x to 3.6x; Main carries the moonshot ladder because it has the cushion. Joint's loan is cleared by unwinding the MSTR synthetic and selling the share block; it holds the IBIT/MSTR convexity and its income fortresses.
The ideal book, by account
Construction rules (applied mechanically to the live book):
- Linear → convex. Assigned/legacy share blocks in BMNR, MARA, MSTR and half of IBIT are sold; their upside is re-bought as long-dated call spreads (the ladder). Shares are the most margin-expensive, least convex way to own a moonshot.
- Every deep short put → at-the-money. Any short put more than 20% in the money with little time value (Retired's IREN 70P, MSTR 185P, RKLB 135P, APP 540P, QCOM 210P; Neville's IREN 65P, SPCX 195P; Main's GLXY 37.5P, COIN 240P) is rolled to an ATM Jan-28 put. Cuts ~60% of its delta, removes assignment, keeps the long call and the hedge. (BMNR/MARA already done.)
- Capital-inefficient synthetics unwound. Joint's MSTR stock + 250P is $250/share of cash locked behind a 250 call; sold, the call re-bought outright, ~$250k freed (clears the loan).
- Thin accounts de-levered, not de-incomed. Neville: SNDK out, SPY 12 → 6, GOOG Jan-28 sleeve 15 → 10, MARA Jun-27 sleeve rebuilt fresh at Jan-28 (10C/8P/6P x250). Retired: ENPH and CLSK (Skip;-tagged, zero income) out.
- Dead weight out: MSTR 300 / MSTX / SBET / BTCS / ECHO / CAN / OPEN1 / BTBT / QUBT / EOSE, COIN's 300/330 put spread at max loss.
- Two new income fortresses in Main (RKLB 10x 75C/75P/55P, COIN 8x 160C/160P/120P Jan-28), sized small, hedge puts held close.
- Everything else kept as is: MU x8, GOOG, RKLB, IREN x4 (rolled), COIN, COPX, AMZN, DELL, QCOM, INTC, META, AMD, NVDA, GLD, HIMS, IGV, NEM, NOW, PATH, TSLA, CRWV, SPCX, MDB, ETHA, GLXY, and every BMNR/MARA/COIN/GLXY/MSTR/IBIT long call.
Main NLV $1,301,841 · leverage 4.13x (margin-consuming 0.57x) · cash $471,710
| Name | Structure | Value | Beta Delta $ | of which margin-consuming |
|---|
| MU | +5 C880 / +5 P320 / -5 C1065 / -5 P1010 | -$308 | $1,101,515 | $180,838 |
| COIN | +25 C500 / +20 C300 / +8 C165 / +8 P85 / +8 C160 / +8 P120 / -8 P150 / -8 C195 / -8 P160 / -20 C600 | $104,829 | $1,094,411 | $33,550 |
| BMNR | +300 C50 / +75 P25 / +75 C23 / +50 C25 / +50 P15 / +25 P45 / +25 C35 / -125 P18 / -300 C150 | $275,450 | $893,023 | -$27,404 |
| GLXY | +125 P17.5 / +125 C37.5 / -125 P20 | $57,734 | $591,580 | $262,812 |
| IREN | +20 C25 / +20 P35 / -20 P47 | $16,418 | $263,514 | $88,579 |
| META | +3 P330 / +3 C480 / -3 C615 / -3 P650 | -$1,321 | $240,059 | $61,235 |
| ETHA | +50 P10 / +50 C13 / -50 P16 | $9,599 | $202,621 | $65,031 |
| RKLB | +10 C75 / +10 P55 / -10 P75 | $18,431 | $185,845 | $66,524 |
| GLD | +10 C320 / +10 P330 / -10 C445 / -10 P450 | $54,488 | $125,532 | $26,902 |
| MARA | +200 C20 / +200 C40 / +200 P15 / -200 P8 / -200 C11.5 | $135,097 | $121,158 | $114,902 |
| IGV | +12 C70 / -12 C113 | $46,117 | $120,481 | -$25,947 |
| HIMS | +15 P5 / +15 C10 / -15 C33 / -15 P20 | $24,954 | $118,129 | -$1,481 |
| NOW | +10 C80 / +10 P90 / -10 P110 / -10 C150 | $33,724 | $113,762 | -$12,927 |
| TSLA | +5 C550 / -5 C950 | $15,347 | $103,790 | -$76,658 |
| PATH | +35 C10 | $28,073 | $69,730 | $0 |
| NEM | +5 P75 / +5 C87.5 / -5 C125 / -5 P105 | $14,461 | $34,396 | -$14,244 |
Neville NLV $840,205 · leverage 3.57x (margin-consuming 1.07x) · cash $459,042
| Name | Structure | Value | Beta Delta $ | of which margin-consuming |
|---|
| MARA | +250 C10 / +250 P6 / -250 P8 | $67,488 | $561,833 | $166,547 |
| MU | +2 C970 / +2 P370 / -2 C1065 / -2 P1110 | -$19,464 | $442,404 | $96,460 |
| GOOG | +10 P310 / +10 C300 / +5 C340 / +5 P360 / -5 P405 / -10 P345 / -20 C350 | $78,362 | $399,694 | $183,640 |
| SPY | +6 C640 / +5 P750 | $112,360 | $333,811 | $0 |
| IREN | +20 P21 / +20 C45 / -20 C54 / -20 P40 | $5,831 | $229,658 | $35,907 |
| RKLB | 1000 sh | $76,210 | $229,392 | $229,392 |
| AMD | +2 P350 / +2 C420 / -2 P490 | $7,898 | $227,303 | $87,248 |
| NVDA | +5 P70 / +5 C140 / -5 C235 / -5 P175 | $33,068 | $158,431 | -$45,897 |
| CRWV | +5 C105 / +5 P40 / -5 P87 | $3,994 | $133,898 | $41,461 |
| SPCX | +5 C150 / +5 P135 / -5 P135 | $10,040 | $132,090 | $85,128 |
| INTC | +5 P35 / +5 C85 / -5 P100 | $1,877 | $109,746 | $36,681 |
| MDB | +1 C270 / +1 P150 / -1 P340 / -1 C460 | $9,736 | $44,970 | -$20,710 |
Joint NLV $678,261 · leverage 3.91x (margin-consuming 0.07x) · cash -$52,469
| Name | Structure | Value | Beta Delta $ | of which margin-consuming |
|---|
| IBIT | 2500 sh / +150 C50 / +50 C75 / +8 P70 / -150 C100 | $212,664 | $458,732 | $26,786 |
| MSTR | +30 C200 / +10 C180 / -30 C500 | $66,192 | $390,675 | -$97,463 |
| BMNR | +150 C23 / +150 P25 / -82 P18 | $213,197 | $377,997 | $127,065 |
| MARA | +300 C20 / +50 C20 / +50 P10 / -50 P8 / -300 C60 | $62,619 | $339,527 | -$58,614 |
| IREN | +20 C25 / +20 P35 / -20 P47 | $16,418 | $263,514 | $88,579 |
| COPX | +20 C65 / +20 P68 / -20 P90 / -20 C100 | $44,802 | $231,032 | $55,276 |
| MU | +1 P420 / +1 C670 / -1 P800 / -1 C1110 | $21,517 | $221,934 | $14,951 |
| AMZN | +5 P215 / +5 C200 / -5 C272.5 / -5 P250 | $29,414 | $160,697 | $13,903 |
| GOOG | +5 C310 / -5 C400 | $35,804 | $106,684 | -$44,692 |
| TSLA | +5 C550 / -5 C950 | $15,347 | $103,790 | -$76,658 |
Retired NLV $424,850 · leverage 2.63x (margin-consuming 0.30x) · cash $371,967
| Name | Structure | Value | Beta Delta $ | of which margin-consuming |
|---|
| DELL | +3 C340 / +3 P150 / -3 P390 / -3 C600 | $23,680 | $234,976 | $16,892 |
| BMNR | +50 C10 / +50 P10 / -50 P18 / -50 C22 | $31,143 | $225,893 | -$29,772 |
| IREN | +20 P23 / +20 C50 / -20 P40 / -20 C54 | $3,517 | $216,284 | $35,907 |
| COIN | +3 C145 / +3 P75 / -3 C190 / -3 P150 | $5,236 | $118,944 | $17,921 |
| RKLB | +6 P45 / +6 C115 / -6 P75 | -$1,945 | $111,205 | $39,915 |
| QCOM | +5 C190 / +5 P90 / -5 C180 / -5 P160 | -$632 | $93,630 | $17,375 |
| MSTR | +4 P55 / +4 C125 / -4 P100 / -4 C114 | $974 | $87,937 | $19,456 |
| APP | +1 C460 / +1 P185 / -1 P300 / -1 C360 | -$1,187 | $28,923 | $7,898 |
| IBIT | +50 C50 | $0 | $46 | $0 |
The convexity ladder
| Account | Spread | Contracts | Premium (BS est.) | Max payoff | Pays in full at | Why this strike |
|---|
| Main | BMNR Jan-28 50/150 call spread | 300 | $97,358 | $3,000,000 | $150 BMNR | above the $50 exit level you named; the calls you own (23C/25C) cover 20 to 50; this covers 50 to 150 |
| Joint | MARA Jan-28 20/60 call spread | 300 | $46,858 | $1,200,000 | $60 MARA | your 20 target is where it starts paying; 60 is 6x from here |
| Main | COIN Dec-27 300/600 call spread | 20 | $37,492 | $600,000 | $600 COIN | COIN is the institutional crypto proxy; adds to the 25x 500C you own |
| Joint | IBIT Dec-27 50/100 call spread | 150 | $82,392 | $750,000 | $100 IBIT (BTC ~$180k) | lowest-beta crypto; pairs with the 2,500 IBIT shares kept |
| Joint | MSTR Dec-27 200/500 call spread | 30 | $43,926 | $900,000 | $500 MSTR | replaces the 1,300 shares' upside above 200 at ~1/10th the capital |
| Total | $308,026 (9% of equity) | $6,450,000 | | |
Why spreads, not calls or shares. A call spread costs a quarter of the outright call, caps the payoff where you have said you would exit anyway, and carries roughly a third of the delta per dollar of payoff, which is what keeps MTM swings smaller than shares. Its whole risk is the premium: no assignment, no margin requirement beyond what you paid, nothing IBKR can liquidate. The calls you already hold (275 BMNR 23C/25C, 450 MARA 20C, COIN 165C/500C, GLXY 37.5C, MSTR 180C, IBIT 75C) cover the first leg of the move; the ladder covers the second. Together the sleeve pays more than today's shares+puts at every target, for defined risk.
The MTM-stability dial
| Ladder size | Leverage | NLV at S&P -20% | at -30% | Sleeve at B50/M25 | at B100/M40 | at B150/M100 | Premium at risk |
|---|
| Today's book (for reference) | 4.00x | $1,029,072 (-69%) | $514,292 | +$2,358,267 | +$6,372,506 | +$13,519,325 | shares + deep puts |
| Ideal, no ladder | 3.24x | $1,427,684 (-56%) | $1,061,567 | +$1,787,984 | +$4,837,746 | +$10,545,046 | $0 |
| Ideal, half ladder | 3.49x | $1,301,393 (-60%) | $912,760 | +$2,197,914 | +$5,786,275 | +$12,025,875 | $154,013 |
| Ideal, full ladder (shown) | 3.75x | $1,175,102 (-64%) | $763,953 | +$2,607,844 | +$6,734,804 | +$13,506,705 | $308,026 |
This is the one real trade-off in the design. Every $150k of ladder premium buys about $1.5M of payoff at the stretch target and costs about 4 points of NLV at an S&P -20%. With no ladder the book is the most stable (-56% at -20%, still mostly the long calls you already own) and keeps 78% of today's stretch payoff; the full ladder matches today's stretch payoff and beats it at every nearer node. I have shown the full ladder because you asked for a real shot at $25M; if MTM comfort matters more, the half ladder is the compromise. Either way the downside is premium, not margin.
Staging and timing: what now, what waits
Principle: do now everything that removes margin-consuming risk or is cheapest now; stage the sale of linear crypto exposure into the recovery so you are not selling the bottom, and convert each tranche into higher-strike spreads as it goes (the ratchet). Buy the ladder now, not later: a 50/150 BMNR spread at $20 costs roughly half what it costs at $30.
| When | Do | Why now / why wait |
|---|
| Now (this week) | Roll every deep short put to ATM (Retired x5, Neville IREN/SPCX, Main GLXY/COIN-240). Unwind Joint's MSTR stock+250P, buy 10x 250C. Sell the dead weight. Close SNDK, trim SPY 12→6 and GOOG 15→10 in Neville, rebuild Neville's MARA at Jan-28. Close COIN's 300/330 spread. Rebalance cash Main→Neville/Retired. Buy the ladder. Open the two new income fortresses. | All of this cuts margin-consuming delta or assignment risk, none of it sells crypto convexity, and the ladder is cheapest at today's prices. Realizes ~-$0.9M on MSTR/junk blocks, already in NLV. |
| Now, tranche 1 of 3 | Sell one-third of the BMNR (5,400) and MARA (3,300) shares and 1,250 IBIT; the cash funds the ladder. | The shares are the margin-heaviest, zero-yield way to hold the moonshot; converting a third now funds the convexity without new cash and trims Joint's loan. |
| BMNR $30 / MARA $15 | Sell tranche 2 of the shares (+~$160k BMNR, +~$20k MARA vs today). Buy 100 more BMNR 60/200 spreads with part of it; bank the rest. | Shares paid you the first leg; above 30 the 23C/25C calls take over, so the shares are no longer doing anything the calls do not. Ratchet: linear → convex at a higher strike, cash banked. |
| BMNR $50 / MARA $25 | Sell tranche 3 of shares. Roll the 23C/25C and 20C long calls (by then ~0.9 delta, i.e. linear) into 60/200 (BMNR) and 30/100 (MARA) spreads; buy back the ATM short puts (cheap by then). This is your stated 'exit and rebuild risk-defined'. | At 50 the recovery grid shows +$2.6M on the sleeve; this locks roughly half of it as cash and keeps the rest as defined-risk convexity to 150/100. Book breakeven vs original basis is ~$42 BMNR / ~$20 MARA, so this is the level at which the bagholding is over. |
| BMNR $100 / MARA $40 | Sell half the ladder (~+$3M of payoff realized); keep half for the stretch. | Bank the $10M milestone when it arrives; keep the lottery ticket for $25M with house money. |
| Every quarter | Run the cockpit; roll any short put that goes 15% ITM; roll the ladder in Q4-27 if still wanted; re-check the income floor. | The rules below. |
What the staging costs versus doing it all now: keeping two-thirds of the shares for a few months keeps ~$0.8M of margin-consuming beta-delta on the book and Joint's loan partly open, in exchange for the shares' linear gain from here to 30 (about +$160k BMNR, +$20k MARA). Liquidation risk during that window is what the Risk Cockpit shows today (Main and Joint fine; Neville and Retired are fixed by the now-items regardless). If BMNR falls to 12 first, the shares have lost another ~$130k that the ladder would not have; that is the bet staging makes, and it is the bet you said you wanted.
Alternatives considered
| Option | What it is | Leverage / margin-consuming | NLV at S&P -20% | PM-floor risk | Sleeve at B50/M25 · B150/M100 | Income | Verdict |
|---|
| A. Hold everything as is | Wait for the recovery with today's book (post BMNR/MARA put roll). | 4.0x / 1.84x | $1,029,072 (-69%) | Retired ~-20%, Neville ~-23% (flat) | +$2,358,267 · +$13,519,325 | $86,873/mo | Cheapest, but two accounts are a -25% S&P from the PM floor and the share blocks can halve again. Path to $5M needs the cluster x1.65; a -30% first cuts it off. |
| B. Full liquidation to the ideal, now | This page, executed in one go. | 3.75x / 0.56x | $1,175,102 (-64%) | none inside -60% in any account | +$2,607,844 · +$13,506,705 | $92,948/mo | Best risk profile, same or better convexity, more income. Sells the shares at 20/9.6: gives up their linear first leg (~$180k to BMNR 30). |
| C. Staged (recommended) | Everything in B except the share blocks, which go in thirds at now / 30 / 50 (BMNR) and now / 15 / 25 (MARA). | starts ~3.9x, ends as B | between A and B for a few months, then B | Neville/Retired fixed now; Main/Joint never at risk | as B, plus the shares' linear gain to 30 | as B | Keeps the recovery path on the shares you are attached to while removing every liquidation mechanism immediately. The only scenario where A beats it is a straight-line rally from here with no dip; the only scenario where B beats it is a further crash first. |
| D. Clean 1x book | Liquidate, rebuild as stock/ETFs, no options. | 1.0x / 1.0x | -20 to -35% | none | convexity gone | 15 to 25k/mo | Sleep-at-night option; abandons both the recovery and the income goal. Kept here for completeness only. |
On the unrealized losses. The -$3.1M of unrealized is already inside today's Net Liq; the ideal book realizes about -$2,059,758 of it (the share blocks and the junk), which changes a label, not your wealth, and carries no tax in Singapore. The real question is only whether the next dollar of BMNR/MARA upside is better held as shares (full downside, 51% margin, zero yield) or as the calls and spreads (defined downside, no margin, same payoff above the strikes). The recovery grid says the shares earn their keep only for the first leg (20 to 30); above that the calls do the work. Staging respects that: keep the shares for the first leg, convert as it plays out.
Path to $10M minimum / $25M stretch
| Scenario | Crypto sleeve payoff (ideal book) | Plus income (~$948,073/yr net, 90d basis haircut 15%) | Net Liq in ~2 years | in ~3 years | in ~5 years |
|---|
| No crypto recovery (income only) | +$0 | $948,073/yr | $5,141,302 | $6,089,375 | $7,985,521 |
| BMNR 30 / MARA 20 | +$1,093,736 | $948,073/yr | $6,235,038 | $7,183,111 | $9,079,257 |
| BMNR 50 / MARA 25 (your exit thought) | +$2,607,844 | $948,073/yr | $7,749,146 | $8,697,219 | $10,593,365 |
| BMNR 100 / MARA 40 | +$6,734,804 | $948,073/yr | $11,876,106 | $12,824,179 | $14,720,324 |
| BMNR 150 / MARA 100 (stretch) | +$13,506,705 | $948,073/yr | $18,648,007 | $19,596,080 | $21,492,226 |
$10M is reachable on two independent routes: BMNR ~100 / MARA ~40 at any time inside the ladder's life (sleeve +$6.7M on $3.2M of equity plus a year or two of income), or BMNR 50 / MARA 25 plus ~4 years of the income engine. Income alone (~$0.9M to $1.1M a year, not compounded, on a 3.2M base) gets to ~$8M in five years and ~$10M in six to seven; the crypto sleeve is what pulls that forward.
$25M needs the stretch scenario or a second cycle. BMNR 150 / MARA 100 puts the book at ~$17M to $19M with income; reaching $25M from there requires ratcheting (the staging table's conversions at 30 / 50 / 100 put more spreads on at higher strikes as each level is hit) or a further leg above 150. It is a real possibility in a 2021-style crypto cycle and an unlikely one otherwise; I would plan around $10M and treat $25M as the lottery ticket the ladder is designed to keep alive at a cost you can afford to lose (~9% of equity).
What would break the path: a second -50% in the crypto names before the recovery (the ladder expires worthless, -$0.3M; the calls you own lose most of their value, but nothing is liquidated and the income engine keeps running); MU's IV collapsing (it is a third of the income run-rate on 90 days, half that on 180); or IBKR house-margin hikes in a crash pulling the thin accounts toward the PM floor faster than the model, which is why Neville and Retired are de-levered first and carry more cash.
Rules of the ideal book (the constitution)
- Margin-consuming beta-delta ≤ 1.0x NLV per account (shares, short puts, short calls). Today 1.84x; ideal 0.56x. Paid-for exposure (long calls, hedge puts) is capped only by rule 3.
- No short put more than 15% in the money without being rolled to ATM within the week. This is the rule that would have prevented the BMNR 65P / MARA 25P situation.
- Moonshot premium at risk ≤ 12% of equity per year (today's ladder ~9%). Roll or let expire; never defend it with margin.
- Cash ≥ 25% of NLV in every account; rebalance between identically-titled accounts when one drifts below.
- PM-floor distance ≥ -35% (flat vol) in every account; the cockpit reports it. If an account breaches, de-lever that account first, not the book.
- Hedge puts are held, not rented: Jan-28 or later, within 30% of the short-put strike, so max loss ≤ cash and liquidation stays impossible by construction (the v28 doctrine).
- Income floor $50k/mo, target $90k/mo; CC writes only above CC-SS; never into earnings.
- The ratchet: each time BMNR / MARA doubles from here, convert a third of the remaining linear or deep-ITM exposure into spreads one strike band higher and bank the difference.
- Quarterly cockpit review; annual ladder roll decision in Q4-27.
Method, assumptions, caveats
- Engine: module_risk_cockpit (tested): Black-Scholes revaluation per leg, TIMS scan margin at IBKR's per-underlying margin intervals calibrated to each account's live maintenance, beta-weighted scenarios, crossover and PM-floor search, crash-vol skew. The ideal book is built by applying the construction rules to the live positions; kept legs carry live marks, new legs are priced Black-Scholes at chain-implied vols (BMNR 95%, MARA 85%, IBIT 55%, MSTR 80%, COIN 75%).
- Income: Trade Query realized CC income per ticker (90-day and 180-day run-rates), scaled by the ratio of long-call contracts kept; new RKLB/COIN fortresses at the measured per-contract rate; cash interest at 3.8%. The 90-day figure is inflated by MU's recent IV; the path table haircuts it 15%.
- Friction: 1% of gross value traded (~$45k). Convexity payoffs are instant revaluations (no time decay); the recovery-grid drift (time value burning) applies to the kept long calls as before.
- Not modelled: IBKR house-margin hikes in a crash; IV compression on a rally (trims near-ATM call values a little); execution slippage on the illiquid LEAPS (work them over sessions); tax (none in Singapore).
- Next step if adopted: price every new leg live in RTH with fortress_v28 (archetype + whatIf margin) before ticketing; update active_fortresses.csv as each sleeve changes so cc_check / rebuild / fight keep the right safe strikes; re-run the Risk Cockpit after each tranche.
Scripts: ideal.py, render_ideal.py (with the cockpit engine) in ~/fortress/_md_files/2026-08-20/.