CC Income Manager
● CACHED CHAINS · 0h
GENERATEDJul 28, 2026 12:34
Insight 2 candidates from the cc_scanner scan Jul 28, 12:21 · 0h ago (fortress_rebuild cc_picks as fallback). Coverage + CC-SS from the fortress_rebuild scan · Jul 28, 12:33 · 0h ago. Insight 1 marks: live.
Jul'26 INCOME · CC + PUTS + INTEREST
floor $30,000 · ideal $50,000 · 4 days left · ideal reached · final week: planning next month
$7,354 interest
$104,422 booked
$19,894 pipeline
floor
ideal
dark teal = interest posted (last month's accrual, cash now) · solid = booked CC income · faded = projected pipeline (open CCs, net-adj)
⚡ For action — close 1 CC · bank $1,010
MARA 16C x200 · Main · bank $1,010
Goal tracker - active target: Aug'26
| Month | Gross | Net-adj | Gap to ideal |
|---|
| Jul'26 projected | $134,979 | $124,316 | - |
| Aug'26 forecast | $2,802 | $268 | $49,732 |
The forward (open-CC) premium is GROSS - it assumes every open call expires worthless. Historically only 66% is kept (the rest is bought back when stocks run), so the Net-adj column haircuts the forecast to match the realized number. The haircut applies to premium you COLLECTED only: a leg opened at a net debit (a roll-up cost) is money already spent, so it carries into Net-adj at full weight rather than being shrunk by a keep rate that has nothing to buy back. Gap is measured on Net-adj.
Tracking to goal - projected Aug'26 income
reaches idealfloor $30,000 · ideal $50,000
ℹ final week of Jul'26 and ideal reached ($124,316 net-adj) → planning Aug'26 from scratch. Base = open CCs already expiring Aug'26.
Interest $4,830
Tap any segment or chip to jump to its panel below. Interest = posted cash interest (last month's accrual) · existing book's forecast · New CCs = Insight 2 sell-all (every available contract) · E[rollover] = held CCs re-written before month-end, income survival-weighted (expected value) · E[fight] = every UNCOVERED deep-drawdown name at fight's near-term safe-yield strike (the tenor you actually sell), valued at your historical keep rate and prorated like New CCs - counted since 2026-07-14 because it lands in actuals when sold (70% of July's realized came from deep names). Each term covers a DISJOINT set: Booked = done, Pipeline / E[rollover] = open CCs (this cycle / re-written), New CCs = uncovered safe, E[fight] = uncovered deep. (2b/2c below are FYI-only references - they feed nothing.)
Step A - 3-month income-CC behaviour
In plain English. Over the last 220 income covered calls you sold and closed, you came out even-or-ahead on 91%; only 20 “ran over” (the stock jumped past your strike, so you had to buy the call back at a loss). You hold each one about 7 days and keep about 66% of every premium dollar after the early buy-backs. That 66% “keep” is exactly what the forecast up top uses to turn gross premium (if every call expired worthless) into the realistic net number.
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Closed CC round-trips | 220 (49 expired full / 171 bought back / 20 run over) |
| Avg time CC stays open | 6.5 days |
| Win rate (kept >= 0) / run-over rate | 91% / 9% |
| Typical premium given up (per bought-back CC) | $240 · mean $523 (skewed by a few big run-overs) |
| Give-up ratio (buyback / premium) | 31.1% dollar-weighted · typical trade gives back 20% (median, size-free) |
| Mean keep (blended) | 69% |
| Forecast keep (maturity-weighted month) | 66% only 1 complete month since 2026-06 (the mature stack), too thin to stand alone, so earlier months still count at ×1 until there are 2. Mature months count ×3. |
Premium sold vs kept, by month
| Month | CCs | Sold | Bought back | Kept | Keep % |
|---|
| 2026-01 | 10 | $30,415 | $-25,984 | $4,431 | 15% |
| 2026-02 | 32 | $112,445 | $-28,135 | $84,310 | 75% |
| 2026-03 | 44 | $122,850 | $-23,660 | $99,190 | 81% |
| 2026-04 | 44 | $83,613 | $-10,116 | $73,497 | 88% |
| 2026-05 | 29 | $44,060 | $-14,837 | $29,223 | 66% |
| 2026-06 MATURE | 66 | $87,455 | $-29,872 | $57,583 | 66% |
| TOTAL | | $480,838 | $-132,604 | $348,234 | 72% |
Read the KEPT column, not the rate. The keep % is efficiency per premium dollar sold, not income. A quiet month where most calls simply expire scores a high rate on little money; an active month where you buy winners back early scores lower and can still bank far more. Only the mature months (from 2026-06) feed the forecast keep above.
Early-cover read: MODERATE - keeping ~69% of premium; some room to widen strikes.
Excluded 11 structural ticker(s) (net CC < 0 over all history = un-caps, not income): ARM, AVGO, BMNR, CIFR, CLSK, GDX, HOOD, IBIT, MARA, SOFI, UAMY. Removed from BEHAVIOUR stats only (income totals count them since the 2026-07 NET methodology), so the give-up ratio reflects genuine income-CC behaviour, not the cost of intentionally un-capping Fortress winners.
Window: last 3 months by close date. Run over = an income CC bought back at a net loss (stock ran past the strike). DBB / defensive un-caps are NOT counted here.
Premium needed to reach ideal
| Quantity | Value |
|---|
| Gap to ideal (Aug'26) | $49,732 |
| Gross premium to sell (grossed up 69%) | $72,210 |
| Avg CC hold | 6.5 days |
| Cycles that still fit this month | n/a (planning next month) |
Actuals by account - Jul'26 realized
| Account | Realized | Accruing MTD (info) | Share |
|---|
| Neville | $40,298 | $918 | |
| Main | $38,525 | $2,827 | |
| RetireInc | $21,951 | $1,034 | |
| Joint | $3,648 | $50 | |
| TOTAL | $104,422 | $4,830 | |
Interest posted this month: $7,354 (last month's accrual as of Jun 30) → Realized + posted: $111,776
accruing now: $4,830 → posts next month
Realized NET income booked this Jul'26 (losses included). The sheet has no account column, so each closed trade is attributed via: exact strike held in an account this month (book + history, 131 matched), 2 qty-fingerprinted, 1 split pro-rata. CSV fortress sizes are the truth for the qty fingerprint (MU 5 contracts = Main, 2 = Neville) and the pro-rata fallback. Accruing MTD = live IBKR AccruedCash per account (posts as cash next month); interest posted (footer, total only) = last month's final accrual, paid early this month. Interest never counts in CC income totals or projections.
Insight 1 - open CC / put book (33 open, 1 to close, bank $1,010)▾
| Ticker | Spot | Strike | CT | DTE | Surv | Collected | Outstanding | Exit Today | Action | Why |
|---|
| MARAMain | 11.6 | 16.0C | 200 | Jul 313d | 100% | $1,200 | $190 | $1,010 | CLOSE | 84% banked - bank it |
| CRWVNeville | 69.8 | 97.0C | 5 | Aug 0710d | 97% | $115 | $165 | $-50 | hold | underwater, 97% safe |
| NEMMain | 92.3 | 106.0C | 5 | Aug 0710d | 97% | $705dr | $102 | $-808 | hold | opened at a $705 debit, 97% safe |
| HIMSMain | 29.9 | 35.0C | 15 | Jul 313d | 97% | $660dr | $188 | $-848 | hold | opened at a $660 debit, 97% safe |
| MUNeville | 862.2 | 1020.0C | 2 | Jul 313d | 96% | $1,250 | $1,560 | $-310 | hold | underwater, 96% safe |
| QCOMRetireInc | 167.6 | 207.5C | 5 | Aug 0710d | 95% | $70dr | $525 | $-595 | hold | opened at a $70 debit, 95% safe |
| MUMain | 862.2 | 1000.0C | 5 | Jul 313d | 94% | $12,125 | $5,512 | $6,612 | hold | 55% banked, 45% to decay |
| BMNRMain | 17.2 | 21.0C | 75 | Aug 0710d | 92% | $1,425 | $1,462 | $-38 | hold | underwater, 92% safe |
| BMNRJoint | 17.2 | 21.0C | 88 | Aug 0710d | 92% | $1,672 | $1,716 | $-44 | hold | underwater, 92% safe |
| AMZNJoint | 230.7 | 255.0C | 10 | Jul 313d | 92% | $4,830 | $1,325 | $3,505 | hold | 73% banked, 27% to decay |
| GOOGNeville | 324.5 | 340.0C | 15 | Jul 313d | 91% | $1,702 | $1,815 | $-112 | hold | underwater, 91% safe |
| GOOGJoint | 324.5 | 340.0C | 5 | Jul 313d | 91% | $568 | $605 | $-38 | hold | underwater, 91% safe |
| BMNRRetireInc | 17.2 | 20.5C | 50 | Aug 0710d | 90% | $1,300 | $1,600 | $-300 | hold | underwater, 90% safe |
| SPYNeville | 737.3 | 750.0C | 12 | Jul 313d | 89% | $1,992 | $1,542 | $450 | hold | 23% banked, 77% to decay |
| NVDANeville | 193.9 | 210.0C | 5 | Aug 0710d | 88% | $1,230 | $738 | $492 | hold | 40% banked, 60% to decay |
| UAMYRetireInc | 5.3 | 7.0C | 25 | Aug 1417d | 88% | $250 | $312 | $-62 | hold | underwater, 88% safe |
| SPCXNeville | 110.7 | 125.0C | 5 | Jul 313d | 88% | $75 | $1,012 | $-938 | hold | underwater, 88% safe |
| RKLBRetireInc | 65.2 | 72.0C | 6 | Jul 313d | 87% | $618 | $675 | $-57 | hold | underwater, 87% safe |
| IRENNeville | 35.4 | 40.5C | 20 | Jul 313d | 86% | $440 | $1,570 | $-1,130 | hold | underwater, 86% safe |
| IRENRetireInc | 35.4 | 40.5C | 20 | Jul 313d | 86% | $440 | $1,570 | $-1,130 | hold | underwater, 86% safe |
| COINRetireInc | 163.0 | 195.0C | 3 | Aug 1417d | 86% | $195dr | $1,245 | $-1,440 | hold | opened at a $195 debit, 86% safe |
| COINMain | 163.0 | 180.0C | 25 | Jul 313d | 84% | $1,130 | $9,125 | $-7,995 | hold | underwater, 84% safe |
| GOOGNeville | 324.5 | 342.5C | 5 | Aug 0710d | 84% | $1,055 | $1,172 | $-117 | hold | underwater, 84% safe |
| COPXJoint | 76.8 | 80.5C | 20 | Jul 313d | 84% | $1,720 | $1,600 | $120 | hold | 7% banked, 93% to decay |
| GLDMain | 371.1 | 390.0C | 10 | Aug 2124d | 83% | $650dr | $3,100 | $-3,750 | hold | opened at a $650 debit, 83% safe |
| MDBNeville | 304.0 | 325.0C | 1 | Jul 313d | 83% | $610 | $505 | $105 | hold | 17% banked, 83% to decay |
| MSTRRetireInc | 95.2 | 110.0C | 4 | Aug 1417d | 82% | $131dr | $1,294 | $-1,425 | hold | opened at a $131 debit, 82% safe |
| MSTRJoint | 95.2 | 110.0C | 10 | Aug 1417d | 82% | $327dr | $3,235 | $-3,562 | hold | opened at a $327 debit, 82% safe |
| COINMain | 163.0 | 185.0C | 8 | Aug 0710d | 82% | $1,840dr | $3,700 | $-5,540 | hold | opened at a $1,840 debit, 82% safe |
| DELLRetireInc | 416.7 | 475.0C | 3 | Aug 2124d | 77% | $372 | $6,015 | $-5,643 | hold | underwater, 77% safe |
| APPRetireInc | 414.0 | 435.0C | 1 | Jul 313d | 76% | $692 | $585 | $107 | hold | 15% banked, 85% to decay |
| NOWMain | 105.8 | 120.0C | 10 | Sep 1852d | 75% | $700 | $4,500 | $-3,800 | hold | underwater, 75% safe |
| METAMain | 594.4 | 637.5C | 3 | Aug 0710d | 75% | $699dr | $3,712 | $-4,412 | hold | opened at a $699 debit, 75% safe |
CLOSE = you have banked >= 80% of the premium - lock the win and free the shares (the last sliver is not worth the pin/tail risk), OR a still-OTM call whose survival has fallen below 67% (cut it before it breaches). ROLL = already ITM and losing: the LEAPS defends it, so roll up/out (see roll_calls) rather than realize the loss. CHECK REBUILD = still OTM but deteriorating AND underwater: closing would realize the loss, and roll-vs-cut on a fortress is fortress_rebuild's call - the row mirrors rebuild's own routing so you see its answer here. ACT TODAY = expires today ITM: buy back or roll before the close. Everything else HOLDS - a safe call with real premium still decaying to you. The decision is about THIS call's own premium, not whether a fresh CC exists (you find those in Insight 2).
Insight 2 - CCs to sell, ALL available contracts (DTE 5-30, survival >= 80%)▾
| Ticker | Spot | CC-SS | Strike | DTE | Surv | Sell all |
|---|
| RIOTJoint | 21.4 | 20.6 | 26.0 | Aug 0710d | 88% | |
| IGVMain | 90.9 | 87.0 | 96.0 | Aug 0710d | 83% | |
Sell all: 62 contract(s) on 2 ticker(s) → $1,046/wk · $4,484/mo · blended surv 87% · ✗ floor · ✗ ideal
ONE view (per Abhi, 2026-07-10): sell every available contract at each fortress's income pick - the projection's New-CCs term uses exactly this number. Cell shows monthly / weekly income and contracts. CC-SS is the scalar safe floor; every strike passed fortress_rebuild's per-expiry exit-model safety check.
NOT BEING SOLD
| Ticker | Reason |
|---|
| IRENMain | deep drawdown (safe floor 36% above spot) |
| IRENJoint | deep drawdown (safe floor 36% above spot) |
| INTCNeville | deep drawdown (safe floor 29% above spot) |
| ENPHRetireInc | deep drawdown (safe floor 54% above spot) |
| CLSKRetireInc | structural - you un-cap this name (net-CC < 0) |
| GLXYMain | deep drawdown (safe floor 49% above spot) |
Deferred by CSV - 8 fortresses skipped (income deferred upstream)▾
| Fortress | LC | CT | Half-max cap | Tag | Net / mo (deferred) |
|---|
| BMNRMain | 25 | 50 | 25 of 50 | Half Max; Skip | deferred upstream |
| BMNRMain | 23 | 75 | 37 of 75 | Half Max; Skip | deferred upstream |
| BMNRJoint | 23 | 150 | 75 of 150 | Half Max; Skip | deferred upstream |
| ETHAMain | 13 | 50 | - | Skip | deferred upstream |
| IBITJoint | 75 | 50 | - | Skip | deferred upstream |
| MARAJoint | 20 | 50 | 25 of 50 | Half Max; Skip | deferred upstream |
| MARAMain | 20 | 200 | 100 of 200 | Half Max; Skip | deferred upstream |
| MARANeville | 25 | 250 | - | Skip | deferred upstream |
Income deferred: $0 / mo · NOT in the projection
These fortresses carry Skip; in the CSV Comments column, so they are held out of New CCs, E[rollover] and E[fight] - the projection forecasts income you will actually write, and you have deferred these. They are still fully live everywhere else: realized income, the Base pipeline and every buyback verdict in Insight 1 are unaffected, because those are about calls you ALREADY sold. The goal ($30,000 floor / $50,000 ideal) is deliberately NOT lowered to match - this is an income-for-safety trade and the number above is its price. Clear the tag in the CSV and the income returns on the next run.
Insight 2d - expected rollover income (held CCs re-written before Aug'26 end)▾
| Ticker | Spot | Strike | DTE | Surv | Contracts | Collected | Cycles | Gross | E[income] |
|---|
| MUMain | 862.2 | 1000.0 | Jul 313d | 94% | 5 | $12,125 | 4.4x | $35,355 | $33,149 |
| AMZNJoint | 230.7 | 255.0 | Jul 313d | 92% | 10 | $4,830 | 4.4x | $14,084 | $12,934 |
| SPYNeville | 737.3 | 750.0 | Jul 313d | 89% | 12 | $1,992 | 4.4x | $5,808 | $5,171 |
| MU uwNeville | 862.2 | 1020.0 | Jul 313d | 96% | 2 | $1,250 | 4.4x | $3,645 | $3,496 |
| GOOG uwNeville | 324.5 | 340.0 | Jul 313d | 91% | 15 | $1,702 | 3.3x | $3,658 | $3,319 |
| COIN uwMain | 163.0 | 180.0 | Jul 313d | 84% | 25 | $1,130 | 4.4x | $3,295 | $2,769 |
| COPXJoint | 76.8 | 80.5 | Jul 313d | 84% | 20 | $1,720 | 2.8x | $3,192 | $2,674 |
| NVDANeville | 193.9 | 210.0 | Aug 0710d | 88% | 5 | $1,230 | 3.4x | $2,777 | $2,454 |
| RKLB uwRetireInc | 65.2 | 72.0 | Jul 313d | 87% | 6 | $618 | 4.4x | $1,802 | $1,562 |
| APPRetireInc | 414.0 | 435.0 | Jul 313d | 76% | 1 | $692 | 4.4x | $2,018 | $1,530 |
| GOOG uwNeville | 324.5 | 342.5 | Aug 0710d | 84% | 5 | $1,055 | 2.5x | $1,755 | $1,472 |
| MDBNeville | 304.0 | 325.0 | Jul 313d | 83% | 1 | $610 | 4.4x | $1,779 | $1,470 |
| IREN uwNeville | 35.4 | 40.5 | Jul 313d | 86% | 20 | $440 | 4.4x | $1,283 | $1,109 |
| IREN uwRetireInc | 35.4 | 40.5 | Jul 313d | 86% | 20 | $440 | 4.4x | $1,283 | $1,109 |
| GOOG uwJoint | 324.5 | 340.0 | Jul 313d | 91% | 5 | $568 | 3.3x | $1,219 | $1,106 |
| DELL uwRetireInc | 416.7 | 475.0 | Aug 2124d | 77% | 3 | $372 | 1.4x | $350 | $268 |
| CRWV uwNeville | 69.8 | 97.0 | Aug 0710d | 97% | 5 | $115 | 3.4x | $260 | $252 |
| SPCX uwNeville | 110.7 | 125.0 | Jul 313d | 88% | 5 | $75 | 4.4x | $219 | $192 |
Gross $83,781 → E[rollover] $76,036 to Aug'26 end
Held CCs are not dead weight: a covered name expiring before Aug'26 end frees its shares to be re-written. Cycles come from your real re-write cadence (STEP A median hold, ~7d), floored at a fresh CC's tenor (~7d) so a full weekly premium is never banked more than once a week. Income is expected value = collected × 66% keep × cycles × survival (you only re-write if you keep the shares), so there is no survival cliff - an uw (banked < 0) row simply carries a lower survival weight, not a different formula. Defensive and deep-drawdown names route to 2c instead.
Insight 3 - deep-drawdown income (near-term safe-yield; the E[fight] projection term)▾
| Fortress | Spot | CC-SS | Strike | vs CC-SS | DTE | Surv | CT | Rung | This cycle | Gross / mo | E[net] / mo |
|---|
| GLXYMain | 22.3 | 33.3 | 25.0 | ⚠ below | Jul 313d | 89% | 81 | 50% normal | $2,187 | $21,870 | $14,400 |
| IREN-LC25-1299Main | 35.5 | 47.4 | 43.0 | ⚠ below | Jul 313d | 93% | 20 | 50% normal | $740 | $7,400 | $4,872 |
| IREN-LC25-1782Joint | 35.5 | 47.4 | 43.0 | ⚠ below | Jul 313d | 93% | 20 | 50% normal | $740 | $7,400 | $4,872 |
| INTCNeville | 88.3 | 114.6 | 102.0 | ⚠ below | Jul 313d | 95% | 5 | 50% normal | $385 | $3,850 | $2,535 |
| ENPHRetireInc | 37.5 | 57.9 | 47.0 | ⚠ below | Jul 313d | 94% | 8 | 50% normal | $280 | $2,800 | $1,844 |
Deep-name income: $4,332 this cycle · gross $43,320 / mo → E[net] $28,523 / mo · 0 of 5 at/above CC-SS (safe)
Read from fortress_fight --all run Jul 28, 12:24 · 0h ago. THE panel for every uncovered deep-drawdown fortress, at the near-term safe-yield strike you actually sell weekly (survival >= 90%). ✓ safe = strike at/above CC-SS (assignment wouldn't lock a loss); ⚠ below = below CC-SS (assignment locks a loss - the risk you accept for the near-term tenor). This E[net] IS the projection's E[fight] term (prorated): you sell it, it lands in actuals. This cycle = the gross cash you collect on THIS sale (bid × 100 × contracts). Gross/mo is that ×(30/DTE), so a 2-3 DTE rung is a ×10-×15 extrapolation that assumes you re-sell it all month. E[net]/mo = gross × your 66% historical keep rate, the same rate the Goal Tracker net-adjusts with. (It is NOT fight's own vol-edge EV: on 3-DTE penny strikes that number is a difference of two near-equal pennies ×10 proration, so a single IV tick swung it $64k→$22k on an unchanged bid.) Skipped: names whose live book shows an open call (already in Base/E[rollover]). The 45-DTE at/above-CC-SS alternative is FYI in Insight 2c below. Trade plan / escape doors live on the FIGHT dashboard.
FYI / reference · not counted in the projection
FYI 2b - max-safety alternative (same contracts, safest strikes; not counted)▾
| Ticker | Spot | Strike | DTE | Surv | Contracts | Net / mo |
|---|
| RIOTJoint | 21.4 | 29.5 | Aug 0710d | 98% | 50 | $1,033 |
Max-safety alternative (swap, not add): $1,033
The SAME contracts as Insight 2, at the SAFEST strike (highest survival) whose whole-position income still clears $1,000/mo (a fixed ‘worth writing’ bar). Measuring the total, not per-contract premium, lets a big position reach a deeper, safer strike while still material. An alternative allocation for when you would rather maximise survival than income - a SWAP versus Insight 2, never additive (same inventory). Positions that can't clear the floor at any strike, or whose income pick already is the safest, are omitted.
FYI 2c - safe recovery strikes (at/above CC-SS, up to 45 DTE; not counted)▾
| Ticker | Spot | CC-SS | Strike | DTE | Surv | Contracts | Gross / mo | Net / mo |
|---|
| IRENMain | 35.5 | 48.4 | 50.0 | Aug 1417d | 92% | 20 | $2,506$1,420/cycle | $1,726 |
| IRENJoint | 35.5 | 48.4 | 50.0 | Aug 1417d | 92% | 20 | $2,506$1,420/cycle | $1,726 |
| INTCNeville | 88.3 | 114.1 | 115.0 | Sep 0438d | 86% | 5 | $1,026$1,300/cycle | $707 |
Recovery income: gross $6,038 → net-adj $4,159 / mo
FYI ONLY - not counted in the projection. The fully safe alternative: the best CC at/above CC-SS out to 45 DTE that still pays >= 1000/cycle. Safe by construction (assignment can't lock a loss), but the tenor is far out - you sell these names near-term instead (see Insight 3, which IS counted). Kept here so you can see which deep names have a safe strike available. Income = 30/DTE monthly rate; Net / mo applies the keep haircut.
Reading Step A - plain English, with your own numbers
Step A looks at every income covered call you have closed in the last 3 months and asks one question: how much of the premium you sell do you actually get to keep? That single percentage is what turns the gross forecast at the top of this page into the net one. Calls still open are not here, they are in Insight 1.
1 · What happens to one covered call
Say you sell one call for $1,000. Three endings:
A. It expires worthless. You keep the whole $1,000. → counted in expired full (49 of yours).
B. You buy it back early for $200 to free the shares. You keep $800. → counted in bought back (171 of yours). That $200 is the “premium given up”.
C. The stock rips past your strike and you buy it back for $1,300. You are down $300. → still bought back, and also counted as run over (20 of yours).
The bit that trips everyone up: run-overs are a subset of buy-backs, not a third bucket. 49 + 171 = 220, your total. The 20 run-overs are the worst 20 of those 171 buy-backs, counted again so you can see how often it goes badly.
2 · Four percentages that all sound the same
| Number | The question it answers | Worked from your book |
|---|
Give-up ratio
31.1% | Of every premium dollar you sold, how much went back out? | You sold $287,318 of premium and paid $89,438 to buy calls back. 31.1% of what came in went back out. Your biggest trades dominate this one. |
Typical give-back
20% | For a normal single trade, what fraction came back? | Line your 171 buy-backs up by what share of their OWN premium they handed back. The middle one gave back 20%. Here a $18 SOFI call counts exactly as much as a $10,000 MU call. |
Mean keep
69% | The mirror of the give-up ratio. | Just 100% minus 31.1%. Nothing new, it is the same dollar-weighted view stated as what you keep. |
Forecast keep
66% | What a NORMAL MONTH keeps. | This is the only one that changes any number on this page. Work out the keep for each month on its own, then take the middle month. |
3 · Why the middle month, and why recent ones count more
Your months: 2026-01 15%, 2026-02 75%, 2026-03 81%, 2026-04 88%, 2026-05 66%, 2026-06 66%. Their plain average is 65%. The tool does not use the average, because one unusually good or bad month should not set the forecast for every month after it. It lines the months up and takes the middle one.
There is a second rule waiting to kick in: once there are 2 complete months from 2026-06 onward (when the toolset matured), only those will count. Right now there is just 1, too thin to stand alone, so the older months still count but at a third of the weight.
This makes the forecast lower, not higher. The early months kept more, because back then you sold fewer and gentler calls. The mature book trades far more actively and sells near-term below CC-SS in FIGHT, so it hands back more premium. Counting the recent months harder stops a quieter era flattering a forecast for how you trade now.
The current month is always left out, because it is only part finished.
3b · A high keep % is not a good month
This is the trap in the whole card. The keep % measures efficiency per premium dollar sold, not money. Your best rate was 2026-04 at 88%, which banked $73,497. Your best month was 2026-03 at 81%, a worse rate, which banked $99,190.
A quiet month where most calls simply expire scores a high rate on a small amount of premium. An active month where you buy winners back early scores lower by construction (buying back at 80% banked hands back the other 20%) and can bank far more. That is why the card now shows Sold / Bought back / Kept next to the rate: read the Kept column for how you did, and the rate only for how hard the premium worked.
4 · Why two numbers for “premium given up”
Of the 171 calls you bought back, the middle one cost $240 to close. The average is $523, pulled up by a handful of big run-overs. When those two are this far apart, the median is the honest one for “what does a normal buy-back cost me?”
5 · Where the early-cover read comes from
Two rules of thumb on the numbers above:
AGGRESSIVE if you hand back 40%+ of premium, or 30%+ of calls run over. Strikes are too tight; write further out.
HEALTHY if 80%+ come out ahead and you hand back under 25%.
MODERATE anything in between.
Yours: win rate 91% clears 80%, but give-up 31% is above 25%, so it lands in the middle band.
6 · Why some tickers are missing
11 ticker(s) are held out of these behaviour numbers: ARM, AVGO, BMNR, CIFR, CLSK, GDX, HOOD, IBIT, MARA, SOFI, UAMY. On those you deliberately buy the call back to let the stock run (an un-cap). That is a capital-gains decision, not a bad strike. Their money still counts in your income totals at the top of the page; it just should not pollute “how well do I pick strikes?”
Window: last 3 months by close date. Only CLOSED round-trips count. A buy-back tagged [DBB] (a deliberate un-cap) contributes its premium and no buy-back cost, so it never looks like a strike mistake.
Read-only and advisory. Places no orders.