CC Income Manager
● CACHED CHAINS · 0h
GENERATEDNov 03, 2026 04:10
Insight 2 candidates from the cc_scanner scan Nov 03, 04:08 · 0h ago (fortress_rebuild cc_picks as fallback). Coverage + CC-SS from the fortress_rebuild scan · Nov 03, 04:07 · 0h ago. Insight 1 marks: live.
Nov'26 INCOME · CC + PUTS + INTEREST − COMMISSIONS
floor $30,000 · ideal $50,000 · stretch $100,000 · 28 days left · behind pace
Goal tracker - active target: Nov'26
| Month | Gross | Net-adj | Gap to ideal |
|---|
| Nov'26 projected | $0 | $0 | $50,000 |
| Dec'26 forecast | $0 | $0 | - |
Ties to the headline: Net-adj $0 + $2,945 posted interest = $-84 above. The tracker counts CC + put income only; interest stays out so the graded ledger stays clean.
The forward (open-CC) premium is GROSS - it assumes every open call expires worthless. Historically only 68% is kept (the rest is bought back when stocks run), so the Net-adj column haircuts the forecast to match the realized number. The haircut applies to premium you COLLECTED only: a leg opened at a net debit (a roll-up cost) is money already spent, so it carries into Net-adj at full weight rather than being shrunk by a keep rate that has nothing to buy back. Gap is measured on Net-adj.
Tracking to goal - projected Nov'26 income
Projected Nov'26 income
likely $16,830 to $53,278 · booked so far $0
reaches floor, short of idealfloor $30,000 · ideal $50,000 · stretch $100,000 (optional)
floor $30k
ideal $50k
stretch $100k
Tap any segment or chip to jump to its panel below. Interest = posted cash interest (last month's accrual) · Booked = realized this month (done, no forecast) · Pipeline = open CCs' remaining premium × historical keep · New CCs = Insight 2 sell-all ($26,781/mo full rate) × 28/30 days left = $24,996 · E[rollover] = held CCs re-written before month-end, income survival-weighted (expected value) · E[fight] = every UNCOVERED deep-drawdown name at fight's near-term safe-yield strike (the tenor you actually sell), valued at your historical keep rate and prorated like New CCs - counted since 2026-07-14 because it lands in actuals when sold (70% of July's realized came from deep names). Each term covers a DISJOINT set: Booked = done, Pipeline / E[rollover] = open CCs (this cycle / re-written), New CCs = uncovered safe, E[fight] = uncovered deep. (2b/2c below are FYI-only references - they feed nothing.)
Step A - 3-month income-CC behaviour
In plain English. Over the last 255 income covered calls you sold and closed, you came out even-or-ahead on 86%; only 35 “ran over” (the stock jumped past your strike, so you had to buy the call back at a loss). You hold each one about 8 days and keep about 68% of every premium dollar after the early buy-backs. That 68% “keep” is exactly what the forecast up top uses to turn gross premium (if every call expired worthless) into the realistic net number.
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Closed CC round-trips | 255 (120 expired full / 135 bought back / 35 run over) |
| Avg time CC stays open | 8.5 days |
| Win rate (kept >= 0) / run-over rate | 86% / 14% |
| Typical premium given up (per bought-back CC) | $150 · mean $356 (skewed by a few big run-overs) |
| Give-up ratio (buyback / premium) | 19.9% dollar-weighted · typical trade gives back 16% (median, size-free) |
| Mean keep (blended) | 80% |
| Forecast keep (maturity-weighted month) | 68% only the 5 month(s) from 2026-06 count: earlier months predate the mature stack (FIGHT, CC-SS floors) and describe a book you no longer trade. Across all 6 months this would read 66%. |
Premium sold vs kept, by month
| Month | CCs | Sold | Bought back | Kept | Keep % |
|---|
| 2026-05 | 30 | $46,060 | $-15,587 | $30,473 | 66% |
| 2026-06 MATURE | 68 | $95,155 | $-30,422 | $64,733 | 68% |
| 2026-07 MATURE | 145 | $187,438 | $-69,931 | $117,507 | 63% |
| 2026-08 MATURE | 75 | $73,608 | $-14,550 | $59,058 | 80% |
| 2026-09 MATURE EVENT | 65 | $45,628 | $-19,115 | $26,513 | 58% |
| 2026-10 MATURE | 117 | $124,036 | $-14,455 | $109,581 | 88% |
| TOTAL | | $571,925 | $-164,060 | $407,865 | 71% |
EVENT 2026-09 (exogenous pause): FOMC decision + Clarity Act vote: calls held back through the first half of the month; the calls that were written gave back 39% (vs a 20-37% norm) escaping the post-FOMC move. Event months stay in every statistic above (the median bounds one month's pull); they are excluded only from the --score calibration verdict, where a deliberate pause would otherwise read as model error.
Read the KEPT column, not the rate. The keep % is efficiency per premium dollar sold, not income. A quiet month where most calls simply expire scores a high rate on little money; an active month where you buy winners back early scores lower and can still bank far more. Only the mature months (from 2026-06) feed the forecast keep above.
Early-cover read: HEALTHY - 86% expire for near-full profit, strikes well placed.
Excluded 3 structural ticker(s) (net CC < 0 over all history = un-caps, not income): HOOD, NOW, UAMY. Removed from BEHAVIOUR stats only (income totals count them since the 2026-07 NET methodology), so the give-up ratio reflects genuine income-CC behaviour, not the cost of intentionally un-capping Fortress winners.
Window: last 3 months by close date. Run over = an income CC bought back at a net loss (stock ran past the strike). DBB / defensive un-caps are NOT counted here.
Premium needed to reach ideal
| Quantity | Value |
|---|
| Gap to ideal (Nov'26) | $50,000 |
| Gross premium to sell (grossed up 80%) | $62,410 |
| Avg CC hold | 8.5 days |
| Cycles that still fit this month | 3.3 |
Insight 1 - open CC / put book (0 open, 0 to close, bank $0)▾
No open short calls or puts.
Insight 2 - CCs to sell, ALL available contracts (DTE 5-30, survival >= 80%)▾
| Ticker | Spot | CC-SS | Strike | DTE | Surv | Sell all |
|---|
| QQQ▼ -0.7%Joint | 685.7 | 700.7 | 710.0 | Nov 118d | 81% | |
| SPY-0.1%Joint | 755.3 | 764.8 | 773.0 | Nov 1411d | 80% | |
| BMNR-2.0%Neville | 19.8 | 20.7 | 22.5 | Nov 1411d | 83% | |
| MARA▼ -4.4%Neville | 6.5 | 6.8 | 8.0 | Nov 1411d | 86% | |
| QQQ▼ -0.7%Joint | 685.7 | 698.0 | 710.0 | Nov 118d | 81% | |
| SPY-0.1%Joint | 755.3 | 762.5 | 773.0 | Nov 1411d | 80% | |
Sell all: 214 contract(s) on 4 ticker(s) → $6,249/wk · $26,781/mo · blended surv 84% · ✗ floor · ✗ ideal
ONE view (per Abhi, 2026-07-10): sell every available contract at each fortress's income pick - the projection's New-CCs term uses exactly this number. Cell shows monthly / weekly income and contracts. CC-SS is the scalar safe floor; every strike passed fortress_rebuild's per-expiry exit-model safety check.
Insight 2d - expected rollover income (held CCs re-written before Nov'26 end)▾
No held CC expires with a re-write window inside the active month.
Held CCs are not dead weight: a covered name expiring before Nov'26 end frees its shares to be re-written. Cycles come from your real re-write cadence (STEP A median hold, ~8d), floored at a fresh CC's tenor (~7d) so a full weekly premium is never banked more than once a week. Income is expected value = collected × 68% keep × cycles × survival (you only re-write if you keep the shares), so there is no survival cliff - an uw (banked < 0) row simply carries a lower survival weight, not a different formula. Defensive and deep-drawdown names route to 2c instead.
Insight 3 - deep-drawdown income (near-term safe-yield; the E[fight] projection term)▾
No uncovered deep-drawdown fortress with sellable income right now.
Read from fortress_fight --all run Nov 03, 04:10 · 0h ago. THE panel for every uncovered deep-drawdown fortress, at the near-term safe-yield strike you actually sell weekly (survival >= 90%). ✓ safe = strike at/above CC-SS (assignment wouldn't lock a loss); ⚠ below = below CC-SS (assignment locks a loss - the risk you accept for the near-term tenor). This E[net] IS the projection's E[fight] term (prorated): you sell it, it lands in actuals. This cycle = the gross cash you collect on THIS sale (bid × 100 × contracts). Gross/mo is that ×(30/DTE), so a 2-3 DTE rung is a ×10-×15 extrapolation that assumes you re-sell it all month. E[net]/mo = gross × your 68% historical keep rate, the same rate the Goal Tracker net-adjusts with. (It is NOT fight's own vol-edge EV: on 3-DTE penny strikes that number is a difference of two near-equal pennies ×10 proration, so a single IV tick swung it $64k→$22k on an unchanged bid.) Skipped: names whose live book shows an open call (already in Base/E[rollover]). The 45-DTE at/above-CC-SS alternative is FYI in Insight 2c below. Trade plan / escape doors live on the FIGHT dashboard.
Insight 4 - commissions by ticker (IBKR, incl. GST)▾
| Ticker | Oct'26 | Nov'26 MTD | Fills | Contracts | Per contract | % of booked premium |
|---|
| MARA | – | $699 | 17 | 11400 | $0.06 | – |
| BMNR | $400 | $617 | 61 | 17307 | $0.04 | – |
| GLXY | $1,160 | $413 | 28 | 500 | $0.83 | – |
| BTBT | – | $175 | 16 | 10200 | $0.02 | – |
| IREN | $668 | $174 | 152 | 320 | $0.54 | – |
| ETHA1 | – | $91 | 24 | 100 | $0.91 | – |
| ASST | $133 | $77 | 44 | 120 | $0.64 | – |
| SPY | $226 | $69 | 47 | 592 | $0.12 | – |
| COIN | $473 | $69 | 39 | 99 | $0.69 | – |
| IBIT | – | $54 | 4 | 5058 | $0.01 | – |
| OPEN1 | – | $52 | 54 | 105 | $0.49 | – |
| HIMS | $85 | $50 | 8 | 60 | $0.83 | – |
| QUBT | – | $46 | 18 | 75 | $0.62 | – |
| GOOG | $100 | $42 | 40 | 189 | $0.22 | – |
| MSTR | $37 | $39 | 25 | 1342 | $0.03 | – |
| CLSK | – | $35 | 39 | 75 | $0.46 | – |
| GLD | $54 | $25 | 24 | 40 | $0.64 | – |
| NVDA | $126 | $25 | 20 | 40 | $0.62 | – |
| CAN | – | $25 | 15 | 10000 | $0.00 | – |
| RKLB | $77 | $24 | 19 | 1034 | $0.02 | – |
| ENPH | $4 | $23 | 24 | 40 | $0.58 | – |
| COPX | $105 | $20 | 48 | 80 | $0.25 | – |
| MU | $84 | $18 | 24 | 28 | $0.66 | – |
| BTCS | – | $17 | 1 | 3900 | $0.00 | – |
| QCOM | $22 | $17 | 16 | 20 | $0.84 | – |
| SPCX | $32 | $17 | 8 | 20 | $0.83 | – |
| HOOD | $66 | $17 | 28 | 40 | $0.41 | – |
| IGV | $17 | $11 | 10 | 24 | $0.48 | – |
| TSLA | – | $10 | 20 | 20 | $0.52 | – |
| PATH | $38 | $10 | 12 | 70 | $0.14 | – |
| SBET | – | $9 | 1 | 3000 | $0.00 | – |
| DELL | $24 | $9 | 6 | 9 | $1.00 | – |
| INTC | $34 | $9 | 15 | 15 | $0.58 | – |
| AAPL | $38 | $8 | 6 | 15 | $0.51 | – |
| CRCL | $21 | $7 | 15 | 15 | $0.47 | – |
| AMZN | $22 | $6 | 15 | 15 | $0.40 | – |
| QQQ | – | $6 | 5 | 358 | $0.02 | – |
| CRWV | $44 | $5 | 20 | 20 | $0.23 | – |
| AMD | $17 | $4 | 8 | 8 | $0.56 | – |
| MSTX | – | $2 | 3 | 350 | $0.01 | – |
| SNDK | $4 | $2 | 3 | 3 | $0.58 | – |
| APP | $3 | $1 | 3 | 3 | $0.30 | – |
| USD | $2 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Statement totals per account, no ticker split | $688 | – | – | – | – | – |
| TOTAL | $4,805 | $3,028 | 985 | | | |
IBKR commission paid per ticker, including 9% Singapore GST, every account. % of booked premium = this month's commission over that ticker's realized net premium this month: amber from 5%, red from 10%. A ticker split exists only for fills captured live (cc_manager_live, from Oct 7 2026) or imported from a Flex Trades export; IBKR statement totals are per account only, so they stay in their own row.
FYI / reference · not counted in the projection
FYI 2b - max-safety alternative (same contracts, safest strikes; not counted)▾
| Ticker | Spot | Strike | DTE | Surv | Contracts | Net / mo |
|---|
| MARA▼ -4.4%Neville | 6.5 | 9.0 | Nov 1411d | 94% | 125 | $1,366 |
| QQQ▼ -0.7%Joint | 685.7 | 730.0 | Nov 118d | 95% | 8 | $1,250 |
| SPY-0.1%Joint | 755.3 | 778.0 | Nov 1411d | 87% | 4 | $1,101 |
| BMNR-2.0%Neville | 19.8 | 25.0 | Nov 1411d | 95% | 62 | $1,084 |
| QQQ▼ -0.7%Joint | 685.7 | 720.0 | Nov 107d | 92% | 3 | $1,082 |
| SPY-0.1%Joint | 755.3 | 786.0 | Nov 1411d | 95% | 12 | $1,049 |
Max-safety alternative (swap, not add): $6,931
The SAME contracts as Insight 2, at the SAFEST strike (highest survival) whose whole-position income still clears $1,000/mo (a fixed ‘worth writing’ bar). Measuring the total, not per-contract premium, lets a big position reach a deeper, safer strike while still material. An alternative allocation for when you would rather maximise survival than income - a SWAP versus Insight 2, never additive (same inventory). Positions that can't clear the floor at any strike, or whose income pick already is the safest, are omitted.
FYI 2c - safe recovery strikes (at/above CC-SS, up to 45 DTE; not counted)▾
No underwater fortress pays meaningful premium at/above its CC-SS.
FYI ONLY - not counted in the projection. The fully safe alternative: the best CC at/above CC-SS out to 45 DTE that still pays >= 1000/cycle. Safe by construction (assignment can't lock a loss), but the tenor is far out - you sell these names near-term instead (see Insight 3, which IS counted). Kept here so you can see which deep names have a safe strike available. Income = 30/DTE monthly rate; Net / mo applies the keep haircut.
Reading Step A - plain English, with your own numbers
Step A looks at every income covered call you have closed in the last 3 months and asks one question: how much of the premium you sell do you actually get to keep? That single percentage is what turns the gross forecast at the top of this page into the net one. Calls still open are not here, they are in Insight 1.
1 · What happens to one covered call
Say you sell one call for $1,000. Three endings:
A. It expires worthless. You keep the whole $1,000. → counted in expired full (120 of yours).
B. You buy it back early for $200 to free the shares. You keep $800. → counted in bought back (135 of yours). That $200 is the “premium given up”.
C. The stock rips past your strike and you buy it back for $1,300. You are down $300. → still bought back, and also counted as run over (35 of yours).
The bit that trips everyone up: run-overs are a subset of buy-backs, not a third bucket. 120 + 135 = 255, your total. The 35 run-overs are the worst 35 of those 135 buy-backs, counted again so you can see how often it goes badly.
2 · Four percentages that all sound the same
| Number | The question it answers | Worked from your book |
|---|
Give-up ratio
19.9% | Of every premium dollar you sold, how much went back out? | You sold $242,002 of premium and paid $48,120 to buy calls back. 19.9% of what came in went back out. Your biggest trades dominate this one. |
Typical give-back
16% | For a normal single trade, what fraction came back? | Line your 135 buy-backs up by what share of their OWN premium they handed back. The middle one gave back 16%. Here a $18 SOFI call counts exactly as much as a $10,000 MU call. |
Mean keep
80% | The mirror of the give-up ratio. | Just 100% minus 19.9%. Nothing new, it is the same dollar-weighted view stated as what you keep. |
Forecast keep
68% | What a NORMAL MONTH keeps. | This is the only one that changes any number on this page. Work out the keep for each month on its own, then take the middle month. |
3 · Why the middle month, and why recent ones count more
Your months: 2026-05 66%, 2026-06 68%, 2026-07 63%, 2026-08 80%, 2026-09 58%, 2026-10 88%. Their plain average is 71%. The tool does not use the average, because one unusually good or bad month should not set the forecast for every month after it. It lines the months up and takes the middle one.
With one twist: only the months from 2026-06 onward are counted. That is when the toolset matured (FIGHT, CC-SS floors, the scanner's picks), so those are the only months describing a book you still trade. Counting all 6 months instead would read 66%; the mature months alone read 68%.
The current month is always left out, because it is only part finished.
3b · A high keep % is not a good month
This is the trap in the whole card. The keep % measures efficiency per premium dollar sold, not money. Your best rate was 2026-10 at 88%, which banked $109,581. Your best month was 2026-07 at 63%, a worse rate, which banked $117,507.
A quiet month where most calls simply expire scores a high rate on a small amount of premium. An active month where you buy winners back early scores lower by construction (buying back at 80% banked hands back the other 20%) and can bank far more. That is why the card now shows Sold / Bought back / Kept next to the rate: read the Kept column for how you did, and the rate only for how hard the premium worked.
4 · Why two numbers for “premium given up”
Of the 135 calls you bought back, the middle one cost $150 to close. The average is $356, pulled up by a handful of big run-overs. When those two are this far apart, the median is the honest one for “what does a normal buy-back cost me?”
5 · Where the early-cover read comes from
Two rules of thumb on the numbers above:
AGGRESSIVE if you hand back 40%+ of premium, or 30%+ of calls run over. Strikes are too tight; write further out.
HEALTHY if 80%+ come out ahead and you hand back under 25%.
MODERATE anything in between.
Yours: win rate 86% clears 80% AND give-up 20% is under 25%.
6 · Why some tickers are missing
3 ticker(s) are held out of these behaviour numbers: HOOD, NOW, UAMY. On those you deliberately buy the call back to let the stock run (an un-cap). That is a capital-gains decision, not a bad strike. Their money still counts in your income totals at the top of the page; it just should not pollute “how well do I pick strikes?”
Window: last 3 months by close date. Only CLOSED round-trips count. A buy-back tagged [DBB] (a deliberate un-cap) contributes its premium and no buy-back cost, so it never looks like a strike mistake.
Read-only and advisory. Places no orders.