25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $20.74 | IV: HIGH
HP strike estimated at $6.60 (no --legs, check IBKR connection)
| Normal income ref | $4,600/mo | |
| Hedge rolling cost | $500/mo |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 19 × $13 | 74% | $2,423 | $516 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 23 × $15 | 17 Jul | 8d | 25.0% | 94% | 13% | $138 | $517 | -$1,905 | $13,064 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $15 25.0% OTM over spot $12.00 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.08 mid) = $138 credit for the 8d cycle → $517/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $15.08) 94% EV / mo +$267 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,678 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 72% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.59–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 211 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $6 below CC-SS $20.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $15.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,665 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $15): -$13,064 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17): -$746 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,855 (+$5,855 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,485, the opportunity cost of earning $517/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 20.8% | 91% | 18% | $250 | $938 | -$1,485 | $15,350 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14.50 20.8% OTM over spot $12.00 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.12 mid) = $250 credit for the 8d cycle → $938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 92% EV / mo +$478 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,622 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 370 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $6 below CC-SS $20.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,665 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14.50): -$15,350 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,315 (+$4,315 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,025, the opportunity cost of earning $938/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 12.5% | 81% | 39% | $418 | $1,568 | -$855 | $13,338 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $13.50 12.5% OTM over spot $12.00 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.26 mid) = $418 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,568/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $13.76) 85% EV / mo +$568 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$854 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 863 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $7 below CC-SS $20.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,665 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $13.50): -$13,338 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$2,238 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,089 (+$4,089 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,251, the opportunity cost of earning $1,568/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $13 | 17 Jul | 8d | 8.3% | 74% | 42% | $646 | $2,423 | — | $14,060 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $13 8.3% OTM over spot $12.00 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $646 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,423/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $13.38) 80% EV / mo +$768 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$554 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,271 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $8 below CC-SS $20.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $13.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,665 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $13): -$14,060 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$2,238 Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,367 (+$3,367 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,973, the opportunity cost of earning $2,423/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $12 | 17 Jul | 8d | 0.0% | 53% | 99+% | $1,278 | $4,792 | +$2,370 | $14,454 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $12 0.0% OTM over spot $12.00 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.75 mid) = $1,278 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,792/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $12.75) 69% EV / mo +$901 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$272 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $9 below CC-SS $20.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $12.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,665 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $12): -$14,454 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$2,611 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,600 (+$2,600 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,740, the opportunity cost of earning $4,792/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$19,665 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $10,340
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 19/25 | $2,423 | $1,935 | 74% | 80% | +$768 | -$14,060 | 0.0% | $3,367 (vs do-nothing $-6,973) |
| $13 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 22/25 | $2,376 | $1,882 | 70% | 77% | +$629 | -$15,840 | 0.0% | $2,706 (vs do-nothing $-7,634) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 13/25 | $2,389 | $1,913 | 64% | 74% | +$570 | -$10,075 | 0.0% | $5,114 (vs do-nothing $-5,226) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 17/25 | $2,414 | $1,930 | 62% | 73% | +$510 | -$12,801 | 0.0% | $3,880 (vs do-nothing $-6,460) |
| $12 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 13/25 | $2,392 | $1,916 | 54% | 69% | +$388 | -$10,166 | 0.0% | $5,023 (vs do-nothing $-5,317) |
| $12 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 9/25 | $2,396 | $1,928 | 53% | 69% | +$451 | -$7,227 | 0.0% | $6,470 (vs do-nothing $-3,870) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.