25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.33 | IV: HIGH
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,400/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $475/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 18 × $13 | 73% | $2,295 | $437 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 22 × $15 | 17 Jul | 8d | 24.6% | 94% | 13% | $132 | $495 | -$1,800 | $4,987 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $15 24.6% OTM over spot $12.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.07 mid) = $132 credit for the 8d cycle → $495/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $15.07) 94% EV / mo +$236 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-887 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,570 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.59–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 243 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $17.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $15.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,600 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $15): -$4,987 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17): -$95 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,082 (+$5,518 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-792 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,290, the opportunity cost of earning $495/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 20.4% | 91% | 19% | $250 | $938 | -$1,358 | $6,817 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14.50 20.4% OTM over spot $12.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.12 mid) = $250 credit for the 8d cycle → $938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 92% EV / mo +$443 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $273 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,584 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 375 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,600 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14.50): -$6,817 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,817 (+$3,783 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-792 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,025, the opportunity cost of earning $938/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 12.1% | 81% | 40% | $396 | $1,485 | -$810 | $6,492 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $13.50 12.1% OTM over spot $12.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.26 mid) = $396 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,485/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $13.76) 84% EV / mo +$482 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $779 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$785 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 928 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,600 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $13.50): -$6,492 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$222 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,714 (+$3,886 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-792 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,922, the opportunity cost of earning $1,485/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $13 | 17 Jul | 8d | 8.0% | 73% | 44% | $612 | $2,295 | — | $7,176 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $13 8.0% OTM over spot $12.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.36 mid) = $612 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,295/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $13.37) 79% EV / mo +$646 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~10.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,623 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$502 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,334 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $4 below CC-SS $17.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $13.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,600 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $13): -$7,176 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$222 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,398 (+$3,202 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-792 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,606, the opportunity cost of earning $2,295/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $12.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 3.8% | 63% | 78% | $1,176 | $4,410 | +$2,115 | $10,408 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $12.50 3.8% OTM over spot $12.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.53 mid) = $1,176 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,410/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $13.04) 74% EV / mo +$901 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~16.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,754 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$223 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,821 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $13.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,600 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $12.50): -$10,408 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$32 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,440 (+$160 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-792 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,648, the opportunity cost of earning $4,410/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.802 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-792
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 18/25 | $2,295 | $1,834 | 73% | 79% | +$646 | -$7,176 | 76.8% | $-7,398 (vs do-nothing $-6,606) |
| $13 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 20/25 | $2,280 | $1,815 | 69% | 77% | +$642 | -$7,514 | 80.4% | $-7,672 (vs do-nothing $-6,880) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 12/25 | $2,205 | $1,756 | 63% | 74% | +$451 | -$5,204 | 55.7% | $-5,616 (vs do-nothing $-4,824) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 15/25 | $2,220 | $1,765 | 62% | 73% | +$492 | -$6,130 | 65.6% | $-6,447 (vs do-nothing $-5,655) |
| $12 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 12/25 | $2,208 | $1,759 | 53% | 69% | +$307 | -$5,288 | 56.6% | $-5,700 (vs do-nothing $-4,908) |
| $12 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 9/25 | $2,396 | $1,954 | 52% | 68% | +$376 | -$4,155 | 44.4% | $-4,662 (vs do-nothing $-3,870) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.