20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $95.44 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $100,800 | (ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,559/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-41,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 14 × $75 | 76% | $4,200 | $-5,536 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 16 × $76 | 73% | $4,267 | $-714 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $75 | 10 Jul | 2d | 3.3% | 76% | 48% | $120 | $1,800 | -$2,400 | $12,143 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $75 3.3% OTM over spot $72.62 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.67 mid) = $120 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $75.67) 82% EV / mo $-1,212 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.5-5.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.1 mo) · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~23.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,136 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$868 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $76 @ 67% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.33/sh now → $1.65 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 850 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $76 (overshoots $1.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $20 below CC-SS $95.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $75.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,300 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$12,143 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $86): -$13,143 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,285 (+$16,015 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,510, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.13 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,758, position total $-24,847 (+$16,453 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $75 | 10 Jul | 2d | 3.3% | 76% | 48% | $200 | $3,000 | -$1,200 | $20,238 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $75 3.3% OTM over spot $72.62 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.67 mid) = $200 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $75.67) 82% EV / mo $-2,021 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.9-5.5] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~23.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $952 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,446 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $76 @ 67% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.33/sh now → $1.65 mid-life (likely $1.92–$3.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 840 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $76 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $20 below CC-SS $95.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $75.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,300 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $75): -$20,238 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $86): -$9,388 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,625 (+$11,675 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,850, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.13 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,930, position total $-29,187 (+$12,113 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $75 | 10 Jul | 2d | 3.3% | 76% | 28% | $280 | $4,200 | — | $28,333 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $75 3.3% OTM over spot $72.62 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.67 mid) = $280 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $75.67) 82% EV / mo $-2,829 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~21.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,036 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,024 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $76 @ 67% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.33/sh now → $1.65 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 845 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $76 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $20 below CC-SS $95.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $75.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,300 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $75): -$28,333 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $86): -$5,633 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,965 (+$7,335 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,190, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.13 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,102, position total $-33,527 (+$7,773 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 14 × $74 | 10 Jul | 2d | 1.9% | 67% | 68% | $560 | $8,400 | +$4,200 | $29,453 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $74 1.9% OTM over spot $72.62 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.77 mid) = $560 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $74) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $74.78) 75% EV / mo $-3,823 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-5.5] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~35.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,680 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,689 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $77 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.27/sh now → $1.61 mid-life (likely $1.99–$4.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,242 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $76 (overshoots $1.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $74 is $21 below CC-SS $95.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $74.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,300 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $74): -$29,453 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $86): -$5,633 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,085 (+$6,215 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,310, the opportunity cost of earning $8,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.13 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,222, position total $-34,647 (+$6,653 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $79 | 17 Jul | 9d | 8.8% | 86% | 29% | $480 | $1,600 | -$2,667 | $25,820 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $79 8.8% OTM over spot $72.62 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.68 mid) = $480 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $79.67) 88% EV / mo +$40 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.7-4.8] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,837 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,218 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $80 @ 67% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.27/sh now → $2.31 mid-life (likely $2.08–$3.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 629 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $80 (overshoots $1.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $16 below CC-SS $95.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $79.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,300 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $79): -$25,820 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $86): -$3,755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,575 (+$11,725 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,800, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.13 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,128, position total $-29,137 (+$12,163 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $78 | 17 Jul | 9d | 7.4% | 82% | 37% | $855 | $2,850 | -$1,417 | $32,277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $78 7.4% OTM over spot $72.62 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.82 mid) = $855 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $78.83) 85% EV / mo +$264 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.6-4.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.2 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-45 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,427 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $79 @ 67% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.19/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $2.20–$3.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 818 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $79 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $17 below CC-SS $95.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $78.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,300 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $78): -$32,277 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $86): -$939 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,215 (+$8,085 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,440, the opportunity cost of earning $2,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.13 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,892, position total $-32,777 (+$8,523 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $76 | 17 Jul | 9d | 4.7% | 73% | 44% | $1,280 | $4,267 | — | $29,820 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $76 4.7% OTM over spot $72.62 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.15 mid) = $1,280 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,267/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $77.15) 79% EV / mo +$166 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.7-4.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~11.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,667 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,144 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $77 @ 67% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.03/sh now → $2.14 mid-life (likely $2.37–$3.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,309 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $77 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76 is $19 below CC-SS $95.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $77.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,300 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $76): -$29,820 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $86): -$3,755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,575 (+$7,725 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,800, the opportunity cost of earning $4,267/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.13 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,128, position total $-33,137 (+$8,163 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 14 × $73 | 17 Jul | 9d | 0.5% | 54% | 95% | $2,520 | $8,400 | +$4,133 | $28,893 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $73 0.5% OTM over spot $72.62 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.17 mid) = $2,520 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $73) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $75.17) 68% EV / mo +$96 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.7-5.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~30.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,483 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$246 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $79 @ 85% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.79/sh now → $1.98 mid-life (likely $2.77–$3.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,274 simulated challenges: the $73 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $74 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $73 is $22 below CC-SS $95.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $75.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $73)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.91 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,300 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $73): -$28,893 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $86): -$5,633 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,525 (+$6,775 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,775 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,750, the opportunity cost of earning $8,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $93.13 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,662, position total $-34,087 (+$7,213 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.905 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$41,300 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-18,775
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 14/20 | $4,200 | $2,698 | 76% | 82% | $-2,829 | -$28,333 | 49.9% | $-33,965 (vs do-nothing $-15,190) |
| $76 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 16/20 | $4,267 | $2,745 | 73% | 79% | +$166 | -$29,820 | 52.5% | $-33,575 (vs do-nothing $-14,800) |
| $76 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 17/20 | $4,144 | $2,613 | 69% | 78% | +$425 | -$30,834 | 54.3% | $-33,650 (vs do-nothing $-14,875) |
| $75 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 11/20 | $4,217 | $2,742 | 67% | 75% | +$427 | -$21,216 | 37.4% | $-29,665 (vs do-nothing $-10,890) |
| $74 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 7/20 | $4,200 | $2,763 | 67% | 75% | $-1,912 | -$14,726 | 25.9% | $-26,930 (vs do-nothing $-8,155) |
| $75 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 20/20 | $4,125 | $2,566 | 65% | 74% | $-1,416 | -$38,675 | 68.1% | $-38,675 (vs do-nothing $-19,900) |
| $73.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 4/20 | $4,200 | $2,791 | 61% | 74% | $-283 | -$8,495 | 15.0% | $-23,515 (vs do-nothing $-4,740) |
| $74 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 17/20 | $4,250 | $2,719 | 61% | 70% | $-3,500 | -$35,169 | 61.9% | $-37,985 (vs do-nothing $-19,210) |
| $74 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 16/20 | $4,350 | $2,829 | 59% | 70% | $-1,197 | -$31,980 | 56.3% | $-35,735 (vs do-nothing $-16,960) |
| $73.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 11/20 | $4,331 | $2,857 | 57% | 70% | +$85 | -$21,821 | 38.4% | $-30,270 (vs do-nothing $-11,495) |
| $73 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 4/20 | $4,500 | $3,091 | 55% | 70% | $-1,180 | -$8,675 | 15.3% | $-23,695 (vs do-nothing $-4,920) |
| $73 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 7/20 | $4,200 | $2,763 | 54% | 68% | +$48 | -$14,446 | 25.4% | $-26,650 (vs do-nothing $-7,875) |
| $73 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 10/20 | $4,125 | $2,660 | 54% | 70% | $-159 | -$20,238 | 35.6% | $-29,625 (vs do-nothing $-10,850) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $72 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 8/20 | $4,200 | $2,754 | 49% | 66% | +$19 | -$16,510 | 29.1% | $-27,775 (vs do-nothing $-9,000) |
| $72 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 6/20 | $4,200 | $2,773 | 47% | 65% | $-348 | -$12,803 | 22.5% | $-25,945 (vs do-nothing $-7,170) |
| $71.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 8/20 | $4,650 | $3,204 | 46% | 65% | +$55 | -$16,670 | 29.3% | $-27,935 (vs do-nothing $-9,160) |
| $71.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 6/20 | $4,800 | $3,373 | 44% | 64% | $-306 | -$12,923 | 22.8% | $-26,065 (vs do-nothing $-7,290) |
| $72 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 3/20 | $5,625 | $4,226 | 43% | 65% | $-920 | -$6,656 | 11.7% | $-22,615 (vs do-nothing $-3,840) |
| $71.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 2/20 | $4,800 | $3,410 | 38% | 63% | $-488 | -$4,468 | 7.9% | $-21,365 (vs do-nothing $-2,590) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.