FORTRESS FIGHT: COPX @ $79.62

BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $97.13 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

COPX @ $79.62 UNDERWATER $13.78 (14.8% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $93.40 | CC-SS: $97.13 (banked floor $93.67) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.858/sh)

SP: $90 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $19.960/sh)

HP: $68 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $9.525/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$100,800	(ND $28.40 + SW $22) x 2000
Normal income ref	$10,615/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,145/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-35,500	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,308/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,615/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.4 mo to earn back $56,800

ML VELOCITY
9.5 mo to earn back $100,800

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $97.13 (probe: $95.5C 13d) brings only $231/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$7,216

Hole (after banked)

$28,284

was $35,500 · 20% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$97.13 → $93.67

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Full leg history (15) and event log · CLOSED 7 · EXPIRED 6 · UNKNOWN 2 · updated 2026-10-17 03:11

Status	Leg	Credit/sh	Credit	Opened	Closed	Close/sh	Banked	Account	Source
EXPIRED	20x $89.5C 16 Oct 2026	$0.40	$800	2026-10-13	2026-10-17	$0.00	$800	U6241782	execution
EXPIRED	20x $89C 9 Oct 2026	$0.65	$1,300	2026-10-06	2026-10-12	$0.00	$1,300	U6241782	execution
EXPIRED	20x $90C 2 Oct 2026	$0.65	$1,306	2026-09-28	2026-10-05	$0.00	$1,306	U6241782	snapshot
EXPIRED	20x $92C 25 Sep 2026	$0.65	$1,310	2026-09-18	2026-09-28	$0.00	$1,310	U6241782	snapshot
UNKNOWN	20x $100C 18 Sep 2026	$1.31	$2,611	2026-08-05	2026-09-18	$1.31	$0	U6241782	snapshot
UNKNOWN	20x $85C 7 Aug 2026	$0.34	$686	2026-08-03	2026-08-05	$0.34	$0	U6241782	snapshot
EXPIRED	20x $80.5C 31 Jul 2026	$0.58	$1,166	2026-07-28	2026-08-03	$0.00	$1,166	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	1x $85C 31 Jul 2026	$0.40	$40	2026-07-22	2026-07-28	$0.10	$30	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	5x $85C 31 Jul 2026	$0.40	$201	2026-07-22	2026-07-28	$0.16	$121	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	5x $85C 31 Jul 2026	$0.40	$201	2026-07-22	2026-07-28	$0.16	$121	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	1x $85C 31 Jul 2026	$0.40	$40	2026-07-22	2026-07-28	$0.16	$24	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	3x $85C 31 Jul 2026	$0.40	$121	2026-07-22	2026-07-28	$0.10	$91	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	5x $85C 31 Jul 2026	$0.40	$201	2026-07-22	2026-07-28	$0.10	$151	U6241782	snapshot
EXPIRED	19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026	$0.40	$760	2026-07-11	2026-07-18	$0.00	$760	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	1x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026	$0.40	$40	2026-07-11	2026-07-16	$0.05	$35	U6241782	execution

Event log

2026-10-17 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 20x $89.5C: banked $800

2026-10-13 SOLD 20x $89.5C 20261016 @ $0.40 (new leg)

2026-10-12 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 20x $89C: banked $1,300

2026-10-06 SOLD 20x $89C 20261009 @ $0.65 (new leg)

2026-10-05 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 20x $90C: banked $1,306

2026-09-28 TRACKING 20x $90C 20261002 @ $0.65 (snapshot)

2026-09-28 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 20x $92C: banked $1,310

2026-09-18 TRACKING 20x $92C 20260925 @ $0.65 (snapshot)

2026-09-18 ? 20x $100C 20260918 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-08-05 TRACKING 20x $100C 20260918 @ $1.31 (snapshot)

2026-08-05 ? 20x $85C 20260807 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-08-03 TRACKING 20x $85C 20260807 @ $0.34 (snapshot)

2026-08-03 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 20x $80.5C: banked $1,166

2026-07-28 CLOSED 1x $85C 20260731: banked $30

2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $85C: banked $151 (1 remain)

2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 3x $85C: banked $91 (6 remain)

2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $85C: banked $24 (9 remain)

2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $85C: banked $121 (10 remain)

2026-07-28 PARTIAL CLOSE 5x $85C: banked $121 (15 remain)

2026-07-28 SOLD 1x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 20)

2026-07-28 SOLD 5x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 19)

2026-07-28 SOLD 3x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 14)

2026-07-28 SOLD 1x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.61 (extends leg to 11)

2026-07-28 SOLD 5x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.61 (extends leg to 10)

2026-07-28 SOLD 5x $80.5C 20260731 @ $0.61 (new leg)

2026-07-22 TRACKING 20x $85C 20260731 @ $0.40 (snapshot)

2026-07-18 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 19x $81.5C: banked $760

2026-07-16 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $81.5C: banked $35 (19 remain)

2026-07-11 SOLD 20x $81.5C 20260717 @ $0.40 (new leg)

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 32 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 34 · %B 4 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $95.88 (+20%) · daily UBB $89.76 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 18 contracts at $83 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,308/mo); it brings $5,400/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 20 × $81/6d for $11,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 20 × $100/20d (98% survival, $150/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $24,359 (43% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $93, recoverable in 2.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 18 contracts realizes $-32,265 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 23 Oct 2026 (6d) · sell 18 × $83, 78% survival, $5,400/mo (E[net] $1,145/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	23 Oct 2026 · 6d	18 × $83	78%	$5,400	$1,145

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,080 with probability 67%; on the 33% touch you roll, paying $2,878 to close and taking $1,390 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,488) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 23 Oct 2026 · 6d · E[net] $1,145/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 18 × $83 (50% normal), 78% survival, breach 22%, $5,400/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $84 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 22% → 16%) for $1,800/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $84 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect COPX to stay flat-to-down near term.

COPX spot $79.62 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

20 × $85.50

23 Oct

7.4%

90%hist 95%

20%hist 14%

+7pp

$500

$2,500

-$2,900

$22,766

Sell 20 × $85.50 7.4% OTM over spot $79.62 23 Oct 2026 (6d, $0.40 mid)

= $500 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $85.50)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $85.90)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,340

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

66% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,767/mo

median; plan ~$1,202/mo after 68% keep · $6,504 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,911

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$92 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.41/sh now → $1.71 mid-life (likely $1.50–$2.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 365 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $87 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$86	30 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.82/sh	+$1,644 cycle +$2,144 [+$1,360…+$2,263] · 99% credit	66% surv 52%	-$21,584 NOT cap gain +$13,916
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$91	13 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$423 cycle +$923 [-$209…+$934] · 64% credit	79% surv 73%	-$11,033 NOT cap gain +$24,467
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$87	30 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.05/sh	+$92 cycle +$592 [-$458…+$466] · 50% credit	72% surv 62%	-$19,373 NOT cap gain +$16,127
Max even-money escape in the band	~$92	13 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.00/sh	+$4 cycle +$504 [-$686…+$477] · 44% credit	81% surv 76%	-$9,451 NOT cap gain +$26,049
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,500/mo
vs 50% target ($5,308/mo)	-53%
vs normal income ($10,615/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,500/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $85.50 is $12 below CC-SS $97.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,766
… as % of IC ($56,800)	40.1%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	22.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,800

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $85.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $84.64	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $85-85.90	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $85.90	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$85.50 (1.3σ)	$500	$-23,228	+$12,272	+$400
+2.5%	$87.64 (1.8σ)	$-3,775	$-23,224	+$12,276	-$3,875
+5%	$89.78 (2.3σ)	$-8,050	$-23,220	+$12,280	-$8,150
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (3.2σ)	$-15,300	$-23,212	+$12,288	-$15,400

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $97.13, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,500

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,061

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $85.50): -$22,766

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,205 (+$12,295 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,605 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,600, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

18 × $84

23 Oct

5.5%

84%hist 86%

32%hist 32%

+8pp

$720

$3,600

-$1,800

$22,919

Sell 18 × $84 5.5% OTM over spot $79.62 23 Oct 2026 (6d, $0.55 mid)

= $720 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $84)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $84.55)

87%

EV / mo

+$1,396

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,202/mo

median; plan ~$1,498/mo after 68% keep · $8,770 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,234

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$92 @ 84% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.61–$2.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 688 simulated challenges: the $84 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $85 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$84	30 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.79/sh	+$1,426 cycle +$2,146 [+$1,006…+$1,746] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$24,576 NOT cap gain +$10,924
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$89	13 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.30/sh	+$540 cycle +$1,260 [-$284…+$844] · 63% credit	78% surv 72%	-$14,690 NOT cap gain +$20,810
Max even-money escape in the band	~$90	13 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.14/sh	+$257 cycle +$977 [-$617…+$557] · 47% credit	79% surv 74%	-$13,973 NOT cap gain +$21,527
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$86	30 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.02/sh	+$35 cycle +$755 [-$658…+$249] · 35% credit	72% surv 63%	-$22,202 NOT cap gain +$13,298
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$92	13 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.33/sh	-$594 cycle +$126 [-$1,642…-$372] · 15% credit	84% surv 80%	-$9,819 NOT cap gain +$25,681
budget: banked $720 debit $594 (83% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$126 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $2,949/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,600/mo
vs 50% target ($5,308/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($10,615/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,623/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $84 is $13 below CC-SS $97.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,919
… as % of IC ($56,800)	40.4%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	22.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-32,220

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $84.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $83.16	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $83-84.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $84.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$84.00 (1.0σ)	$720	$-26,001	+$9,499	+$630
+2.5%	$86.10 (1.5σ)	$-3,060	$-25,577	+$9,923	-$3,150
+5%	$88.20 (2.0σ)	$-6,840	$-25,153	+$10,347	-$6,930
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (3.2σ)	$-16,200	$-24,102	+$11,398	-$16,290

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $97.13, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,500

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,061

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $84): -$22,919

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$717

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,075 (+$11,425 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,605 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,470, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

18 × $83

23 Oct

4.2%

78%hist 82%

44%hist 42%

+9pp

$1,080

$5,400

—

$24,359

Sell 18 × $83 4.2% OTM over spot $79.62 23 Oct 2026 (6d, $0.77 mid)

= $1,080 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $83)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $83.78)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,901

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

63% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,808/mo

median; plan ~$1,909/mo after 68% keep · $12,754 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

33%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,798

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$93 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.62–$2.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 994 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $84 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$83	30 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.77/sh	+$1,390 cycle +$2,470 [+$867…+$1,631] · 98% credit	66% surv 51%	-$26,253 NOT cap gain +$9,247
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$87	13 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.51/sh	+$910 cycle +$1,990 [+$57…+$1,124] · 77% credit	76% surv 69%	-$17,964 NOT cap gain +$17,536
Max even-money escape in the band	~$89	13 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.10/sh	+$177 cycle +$1,257 [-$797…+$348] · 36% credit	79% surv 74%	-$15,694 NOT cap gain +$19,806
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$85	30 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.00/sh	+$5 cycle +$1,085 [-$750…+$133] · 29% credit	72% surv 63%	-$23,875 NOT cap gain +$11,625
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$93	13 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.57/sh	-$1,032 cycle +$48 [-$2,256…-$956] · 5% credit	86% surv 84%	-$8,896 NOT cap gain +$26,604
budget: banked $1,080 debit $1,032 (96% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $2,307/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,400/mo
vs 50% target ($5,308/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($10,615/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,423/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $83 is $14 below CC-SS $97.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,359
… as % of IC ($56,800)	42.9%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	24.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-32,265

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $83.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $82.17	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $82-83.78	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $83.78	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$83.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,080	$-27,643	+$7,857	+$990
+2.5%	$85.07 (1.3σ)	$-2,655	$-27,224	+$8,276	-$2,745
+5%	$87.15 (1.7σ)	$-6,390	$-26,805	+$8,695	-$6,480
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (3.2σ)	$-17,640	$-25,542	+$9,958	-$17,730

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $97.13, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,500

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,061

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $83): -$24,359

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $93.50): -$717

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,515 (+$9,985 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,605 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,910, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

20 × $81

23 Oct

1.7%

63%hist 64%

75%hist 69%

+13pp

$2,200

$11,000

+$5,600

$30,066

Sell 20 × $81 1.7% OTM over spot $79.62 23 Oct 2026 (6d, $1.23 mid)

= $2,200 credit for the 6d cycle → $11,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $81)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $82.22)

73%

EV / mo

+$2,086

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+13pp

74% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,305/mo

median; plan ~$2,927/mo after 68% keep · $13,754 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$832

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$93 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.90–$2.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,682 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $82 (overshoots $1.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$81	30 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.73/sh	+$1,466 cycle +$3,666 [+$715…+$1,298] · 96% credit	66% surv 51%	-$29,071 NOT cap gain +$6,429
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$83	6 Nov 2026	17d left	+$0.55/sh	+$1,098 cycle +$3,298 [+$43…+$796] · 76% credit	73% surv 64%	-$24,675 NOT cap gain +$10,825
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$82	30 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.12/sh	+$239 cycle +$2,439 [-$798…-$57] · 22% credit	70% surv 61%	-$27,535 NOT cap gain +$7,965
Max even-money escape in the band	~$87	13 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.01/sh	+$28 cycle +$2,228 [-$1,412…-$381] · 14% credit	80% surv 75%	-$18,738 NOT cap gain +$16,762
SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$93	13 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.92/sh	-$1,835 cycle +$365 [-$3,850…-$2,410]	91% surv 90%	-$7,587 NOT cap gain +$27,913
budget: banked $2,200 debit $1,835 (83% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$365 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,497/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,000/mo
vs 50% target ($5,308/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($10,615/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $81 is $16 below CC-SS $97.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,066
… as % of IC ($56,800)	52.9%
… as % of ML ($100,800)	29.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-35,750

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $82.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $89.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $80.19	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $80-82.22	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $82.22	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$81.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,200	$-30,537	+$4,963	+$2,100
+2.5%	$83.02 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,850	$-30,533	+$4,967	-$1,950
+5%	$85.05 (1.2σ)	$-5,900	$-30,529	+$4,971	-$6,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$93.40 (3.2σ)	$-22,600	$-30,512	+$4,988	-$22,700

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $97.13, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,500

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,061

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $81): -$30,066

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,505 (+$4,995 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,605 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,900, the opportunity cost of earning $11,000/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COPX are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (29 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.001 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$35,061 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,605

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$83	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.60	18/20	$1,080	$5,400	$5,423	78%hist 82%	44%hist 42%	83%	+$1,901	-$24,359	42.9%	2.3mo	$-25,515 (vs do-nothing $-17,910)
$82.50	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.60	18/20	$1,080	$5,400	$5,423	75%hist 82%	51%hist 45%	81%	+$1,042	-$25,259	44.5%	2.4mo	$-26,415 (vs do-nothing $-18,810)
$83.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$1.15	20/20	$2,300	$5,308	$5,308	74%hist 82%	54%hist 45%	80%	+$1,587	-$24,966	44.0%	2.4mo	$-25,405 (vs do-nothing $-17,800)
$82	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.80	14/20	$1,120	$5,600	$5,669	71%hist 82%	58%hist 45%	78%	+$1,412	-$20,066	35.3%	1.9mo	$-22,655 (vs do-nothing $-15,050)
$83	13d	30 Oct 2026	$1.30	18/20	$2,340	$5,400	$5,423	71%hist 82%	59%hist 45%	78%	+$1,539	-$23,099	40.7%	2.2mo	$-24,255 (vs do-nothing $-16,650)
$82.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$1.35	18/20	$2,430	$5,608	$5,631	68%hist 64%	65%hist 57%	76%	+$1,174	-$23,909	42.1%	2.3mo	$-25,065 (vs do-nothing $-17,460)
$83	20d	6 Nov 2026	$1.80	20/20	$3,600	$5,400	$5,400	68%hist 64%	67%hist 57%	76%	+$1,161	-$24,666	43.4%	2.3mo	$-25,105 (vs do-nothing $-17,500)
$81.50	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.95	12/20	$1,140	$5,700	$5,792	68%hist 64%	66%hist 57%	76%	+$1,300	-$17,619	31.0%	1.7mo	$-20,925 (vs do-nothing $-13,320)
$82	13d	30 Oct 2026	$1.60	15/20	$2,400	$5,538	$5,596	66%hist 64%	70%hist 69%	75%	+$1,315	-$20,299	35.7%	1.9mo	$-22,530 (vs do-nothing $-14,925)
$82.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$2.00	18/20	$3,600	$5,400	$5,423	66%hist 64%	71%hist 69%	75%	+$1,180	-$22,739	40.0%	2.1mo	$-23,895 (vs do-nothing $-16,290)
$81	6d	23 Oct 2026	$1.10	10/20	$1,100	$5,500	$5,615	63%hist 64%	75%hist 69%	73%	+$1,043	-$15,033	26.5%	1.4mo	$-19,055 (vs do-nothing $-11,450)
$82	20d	6 Nov 2026	$2.20	17/20	$3,740	$5,610	$5,645	63%hist 64%	76%hist 69%	73%	+$1,209	-$21,986	38.7%	2.1mo	$-23,500 (vs do-nothing $-15,895)
$81.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$1.70	14/20	$2,380	$5,492	$5,562	63%hist 64%	77%hist 69%	73%	+$917	-$19,506	34.3%	1.8mo	$-22,095 (vs do-nothing $-14,490)

Show 16 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$82	27d	13 Nov 2026	$2.50	20/20	$5,000	$5,556	$5,556	62%hist 64%	79%hist 69%	72%	+$814	-$25,266	44.5%	2.4mo	$-25,705 (vs do-nothing $-18,100)
$81.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$2.35	16/20	$3,760	$5,640	$5,686	61%hist 64%	81%hist 79%	73%	+$1,076	-$21,253	37.4%	2.0mo	$-23,125 (vs do-nothing $-15,520)
$81.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$2.70	18/20	$4,860	$5,400	$5,423	60%hist 64%	83%hist 79%	72%	+$757	-$23,279	41.0%	2.2mo	$-24,435 (vs do-nothing $-16,830)
$81	13d	30 Oct 2026	$1.85	13/20	$2,405	$5,550	$5,631	60%hist 67%	83%hist 79%	72%	+$762	-$18,568	32.7%	1.7mo	$-21,515 (vs do-nothing $-13,910)
$81	20d	6 Nov 2026	$2.45	15/20	$3,675	$5,512	$5,570	59%hist 67%	86%hist 79%	71%	+$807	-$20,524	36.1%	1.9mo	$-22,755 (vs do-nothing $-15,150)
$81	27d	13 Nov 2026	$3.00	16/20	$4,800	$5,333	$5,379	58%hist 67%	87%hist 79%	71%	+$851	-$21,013	37.0%	2.0mo	$-22,885 (vs do-nothing $-15,280)
$80.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$3.10	16/20	$4,960	$5,511	$5,557	56%hist 67%	92%hist 90%	70%	+$772	-$21,653	38.1%	2.0mo	$-23,525 (vs do-nothing $-15,920)
$80	6d	23 Oct 2026	$1.40	8/20	$1,120	$5,600	$5,738	55%hist 67%	93%hist 90%	69%	+$467	-$12,586	22.2%	1.2mo	$-17,325 (vs do-nothing $-9,720)
$80	13d	30 Oct 2026	$2.30	10/20	$2,300	$5,308	$5,423	54%hist 67%	95%hist 90%	69%	+$676	-$14,833	26.1%	1.4mo	$-18,855 (vs do-nothing $-11,250)
$80	27d	13 Nov 2026	$3.30	15/20	$4,950	$5,500	$5,558	54%hist 67%	96%hist 90%	70%	+$699	-$20,749	36.5%	2.0mo	$-22,980 (vs do-nothing $-15,375)
$80	20d	6 Nov 2026	$2.95	12/20	$3,540	$5,310	$5,402	54%hist 67%	96%hist 90%	69%	+$785	-$17,019	30.0%	1.6mo	$-20,325 (vs do-nothing $-12,720)
$79.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$3.50	14/20	$4,900	$5,444	$5,514	52%hist 67%	100%hist 90%	68%	+$609	-$19,786	34.8%	1.9mo	$-22,375 (vs do-nothing $-14,770)
$79	27d	13 Nov 2026	$3.80	13/20	$4,940	$5,489	$5,570	49%	100%hist 90%	67%	+$651	-$18,633	32.8%	1.8mo	$-21,580 (vs do-nothing $-13,975)
$79	20d	6 Nov 2026	$3.40	11/20	$3,740	$5,610	$5,714	49%	100%hist 90%	66%	+$666	-$16,206	28.5%	1.5mo	$-19,870 (vs do-nothing $-12,265)
$79	13d	30 Oct 2026	$2.75	9/20	$2,475	$5,712	$5,838	48%	100%hist 90%	66%	+$536	-$13,845	24.4%	1.3mo	$-18,225 (vs do-nothing $-10,620)
$79	6d	23 Oct 2026	$1.90	6/20	$1,140	$5,700	$5,862	45%	100%hist 90%	64%	+$348	-$9,740	17.1%	0.9mo	$-15,195 (vs do-nothing $-7,590)

86 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$100	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$150	$150	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$97	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-339 (vs do-nothing +$7,266)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$500	$500	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$413	-$14,166	24.9%	1.3mo	$-14,605 (vs do-nothing $-7,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$99	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$150	$150	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$79	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-339 (vs do-nothing +$7,266)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$231	$231	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$140	-$3,166	5.6%	0.3mo	$-3,605 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89.50	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$500	$500	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$381	-$15,166	26.7%	1.4mo	$-15,605 (vs do-nothing $-8,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$98	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$150	$150	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$54	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-339 (vs do-nothing +$7,266)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$500	$500	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$338	-$16,166	28.5%	1.5mo	$-16,605 (vs do-nothing $-9,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$231	$231	97%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$102	-$5,166	9.1%	0.5mo	$-5,605 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$231	$231	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$78	-$6,166	10.9%	0.6mo	$-6,605 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$150	$150	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$22	-$166	0.3%	0.0mo	$-605 (vs do-nothing +$7,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$100	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$111	$111	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	$-14	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-339 (vs do-nothing +$7,266)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88.50	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.10	20/20	$200	$1,000	$1,000	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$782	-$17,066	30.0%	1.6mo	$-17,505 (vs do-nothing $-9,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$231	$231	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$49	-$7,166	12.6%	0.7mo	$-7,605 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$150	$150	96%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	$-21	-$2,166	3.8%	0.2mo	$-2,605 (vs do-nothing +$5,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$231	$231	96%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$15	-$8,166	14.4%	0.8mo	$-8,605 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.10	20/20	$200	$1,000	$1,000	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	97%	+$707	-$18,066	31.8%	1.7mo	$-18,505 (vs do-nothing $-10,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	20/20	$100	$231	$231	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	$-25	-$9,166	16.1%	0.9mo	$-9,605 (vs do-nothing $-2,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.20	20/20	$400	$600	$600	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$373	-$3,866	6.8%	0.4mo	$-4,305 (vs do-nothing +$3,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87.50	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.10	20/20	$200	$1,000	$1,000	95%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$609	-$19,066	33.6%	1.8mo	$-19,505 (vs do-nothing $-11,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.20	20/20	$400	$923	$923	95%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$621	-$9,866	17.4%	0.9mo	$-10,305 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.15	20/20	$300	$692	$692	95%hist 95%	11%hist 14%	95%	+$335	-$10,966	19.3%	1.0mo	$-11,405 (vs do-nothing $-3,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.25	20/20	$500	$750	$750	95%hist 95%	11%hist 14%	95%	+$450	-$5,766	10.2%	0.5mo	$-6,205 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.15	20/20	$300	$1,500	$1,500	94%hist 95%	11%hist 14%	95%	+$982	-$19,966	35.2%	1.9mo	$-20,405 (vs do-nothing $-12,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.25	20/20	$500	$1,154	$1,154	94%hist 95%	12%hist 14%	95%	+$733	-$11,766	20.7%	1.1mo	$-12,205 (vs do-nothing $-4,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.20	20/20	$400	$600	$600	94%hist 95%	13%hist 14%	94%	+$206	-$7,866	13.8%	0.7mo	$-8,305 (vs do-nothing $-700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.20	20/20	$400	$923	$923	93%hist 95%	13%hist 14%	94%	+$428	-$12,866	22.7%	1.2mo	$-13,305 (vs do-nothing $-5,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$86.50	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.20	20/20	$400	$2,000	$2,000	93%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	94%	+$1,318	-$20,866	36.7%	2.0mo	$-21,305 (vs do-nothing $-13,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.40	20/20	$800	$889	$889	93%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	94%	+$501	-$3,466	6.1%	0.3mo	$-3,905 (vs do-nothing +$3,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.25	20/20	$500	$1,154	$1,154	93%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	94%	+$673	-$14,766	26.0%	1.4mo	$-15,205 (vs do-nothing $-7,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.30	20/20	$600	$900	$900	93%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	94%	+$450	-$8,666	15.3%	0.8mo	$-9,105 (vs do-nothing $-1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.30	20/20	$600	$1,385	$1,385	93%hist 95%	15%hist 14%	93%	+$804	-$13,666	24.1%	1.3mo	$-14,105 (vs do-nothing $-6,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.35	20/20	$700	$1,050	$1,050	92%hist 95%	16%hist 14%	93%	+$536	-$9,566	16.8%	0.9mo	$-10,005 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.25	20/20	$500	$1,154	$1,154	92%hist 95%	16%hist 14%	93%	+$570	-$15,766	27.8%	1.5mo	$-16,205 (vs do-nothing $-8,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.35	20/20	$700	$778	$778	92%hist 95%	16%hist 14%	93%	+$297	-$5,566	9.8%	0.5mo	$-6,005 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.35	20/20	$700	$1,050	$1,050	92%hist 95%	17%hist 14%	92%	+$464	-$10,566	18.6%	1.0mo	$-11,005 (vs do-nothing $-3,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.30	20/20	$600	$1,385	$1,385	91%hist 95%	18%hist 14%	92%	+$679	-$16,666	29.3%	1.6mo	$-17,105 (vs do-nothing $-9,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.55	20/20	$1,100	$1,222	$1,222	91%hist 95%	19%hist 14%	92%	+$629	-$7,166	12.6%	0.7mo	$-7,605 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.45	20/20	$900	$1,350	$1,350	91%hist 95%	19%hist 14%	92%	+$683	-$11,366	20.0%	1.1mo	$-11,805 (vs do-nothing $-4,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$85.50	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.25	20/20	$500	$2,500	$2,500	90%hist 95%	20%hist 14%	92%	+$1,340	-$22,766	40.1%	2.1mo	$-23,205 (vs do-nothing $-15,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.45	20/20	$900	$2,077	$2,077	90%hist 86%	20%hist 24%	91%	+$1,228	-$17,366	30.6%	1.6mo	$-17,805 (vs do-nothing $-10,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.55	20/20	$1,100	$1,650	$1,650	90%hist 86%	21%hist 24%	91%	+$892	-$12,166	21.4%	1.1mo	$-12,605 (vs do-nothing $-5,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.65	20/20	$1,300	$1,444	$1,444	89%hist 86%	22%hist 24%	91%	+$716	-$8,966	15.8%	0.8mo	$-9,405 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.55	20/20	$1,100	$1,650	$1,650	89%hist 86%	23%hist 24%	90%	+$790	-$13,166	23.2%	1.2mo	$-13,605 (vs do-nothing $-6,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.40	20/20	$800	$1,846	$1,846	89%hist 86%	23%hist 24%	90%	+$828	-$18,466	32.5%	1.7mo	$-18,905 (vs do-nothing $-11,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$85	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.30	20/20	$600	$3,000	$3,000	88%hist 86%	23%hist 24%	90%	+$1,502	-$23,666	41.7%	2.2mo	$-24,105 (vs do-nothing $-16,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.65	20/20	$1,300	$1,950	$1,950	88%hist 86%	25%hist 24%	90%	+$975	-$13,966	24.6%	1.3mo	$-14,405 (vs do-nothing $-6,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.80	20/20	$1,600	$1,778	$1,778	88%hist 86%	25%hist 24%	89%	+$885	-$10,666	18.8%	1.0mo	$-11,105 (vs do-nothing $-3,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.50	20/20	$1,000	$2,308	$2,308	87%hist 86%	26%hist 24%	89%	+$1,092	-$19,266	33.9%	1.8mo	$-19,705 (vs do-nothing $-12,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.55	20/20	$1,100	$1,650	$1,650	87%hist 86%	27%hist 24%	89%	+$548	-$15,166	26.7%	1.4mo	$-15,605 (vs do-nothing $-8,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.85	20/20	$1,700	$1,889	$1,889	87%hist 86%	27%hist 24%	89%	+$902	-$11,566	20.4%	1.1mo	$-12,005 (vs do-nothing $-4,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$84.50	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.35	20/20	$700	$3,500	$3,500	86%hist 86%	28%hist 24%	89%	+$1,577	-$24,566	43.2%	2.3mo	$-25,005 (vs do-nothing $-17,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.85	20/20	$1,700	$1,889	$1,889	86%hist 86%	29%hist 24%	88%	+$799	-$12,566	22.1%	1.2mo	$-13,005 (vs do-nothing $-5,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.75	20/20	$1,500	$2,250	$2,250	86%hist 86%	29%hist 24%	88%	+$1,006	-$15,766	27.8%	1.5mo	$-16,205 (vs do-nothing $-8,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$86.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.65	20/20	$1,300	$3,000	$3,000	86%hist 86%	29%hist 24%	88%	+$1,555	-$19,966	35.2%	1.9mo	$-20,405 (vs do-nothing $-12,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.95	20/20	$1,900	$2,111	$2,111	85%hist 86%	31%hist 32%	87%	+$909	-$13,366	23.5%	1.3mo	$-13,805 (vs do-nothing $-6,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.80	20/20	$1,600	$2,400	$2,400	85%hist 86%	32%hist 32%	87%	+$997	-$16,666	29.3%	1.6mo	$-17,105 (vs do-nothing $-9,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$86	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.70	20/20	$1,400	$3,231	$3,231	84%hist 86%	33%hist 32%	87%	+$1,521	-$20,866	36.7%	2.0mo	$-21,305 (vs do-nothing $-13,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$84	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.40	20/20	$800	$4,000	$4,000	84%hist 86%	32%hist 32%	87%	+$1,551	-$25,466	44.8%	2.4mo	$-25,905 (vs do-nothing $-18,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	27d	13 Nov 2026	$0.95	20/20	$1,900	$2,111	$2,111	84%hist 86%	33%hist 32%	87%	+$786	-$14,366	25.3%	1.4mo	$-14,805 (vs do-nothing $-7,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$0.80	20/20	$1,600	$2,400	$2,400	83%hist 86%	34%hist 32%	86%	+$821	-$17,666	31.1%	1.7mo	$-18,105 (vs do-nothing $-10,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$1.05	20/20	$2,100	$2,333	$2,333	83%hist 86%	35%hist 32%	86%	+$891	-$15,166	26.7%	1.4mo	$-15,605 (vs do-nothing $-8,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$85.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.75	20/20	$1,500	$3,462	$3,462	82%hist 86%	36%hist 32%	85%	+$1,446	-$21,766	38.3%	2.1mo	$-22,205 (vs do-nothing $-14,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87	20d	6 Nov 2026	$1.00	20/20	$2,000	$3,000	$3,000	82%hist 86%	37%hist 32%	85%	+$1,226	-$18,266	32.2%	1.7mo	$-18,705 (vs do-nothing $-11,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88	27d	13 Nov 2026	$1.15	20/20	$2,300	$2,556	$2,556	82%hist 86%	38%hist 32%	85%	+$967	-$15,966	28.1%	1.5mo	$-16,405 (vs do-nothing $-8,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$83.50	6d	23 Oct 2026	$0.50	20/20	$1,000	$5,000	$5,000	81%hist 86%	38%hist 32%	85%	+$1,902	-$26,266	46.2%	2.5mo	$-26,705 (vs do-nothing $-19,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$86.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$1.05	20/20	$2,100	$3,150	$3,150	80%hist 86%	40%hist 42%	84%	+$1,160	-$19,166	33.7%	1.8mo	$-19,605 (vs do-nothing $-12,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$1.15	20/20	$2,300	$2,556	$2,556	80%hist 86%	41%hist 42%	84%	+$809	-$16,966	29.9%	1.6mo	$-17,405 (vs do-nothing $-9,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$85	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.80	20/20	$1,600	$3,692	$3,692	80%hist 86%	40%hist 42%	84%	+$1,328	-$22,666	39.9%	2.1mo	$-23,105 (vs do-nothing $-15,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87	27d	13 Nov 2026	$1.30	20/20	$2,600	$2,889	$2,889	79%hist 82%	43%hist 42%	83%	+$970	-$17,666	31.1%	1.7mo	$-18,105 (vs do-nothing $-10,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$86	20d	6 Nov 2026	$1.05	20/20	$2,100	$3,150	$3,150	79%hist 82%	43%hist 42%	83%	+$922	-$20,166	35.5%	1.9mo	$-20,605 (vs do-nothing $-13,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$84.50	13d	30 Oct 2026	$0.85	20/20	$1,700	$3,923	$3,923	78%hist 82%	45%hist 42%	83%	+$1,161	-$23,566	41.5%	2.2mo	$-24,005 (vs do-nothing $-16,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$86.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$1.40	20/20	$2,800	$3,111	$3,111	78%hist 82%	46%hist 42%	82%	+$1,069	-$18,466	32.5%	1.7mo	$-18,905 (vs do-nothing $-11,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$85.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$1.20	20/20	$2,400	$3,600	$3,600	77%hist 82%	47%hist 42%	82%	+$1,109	-$20,866	36.7%	2.0mo	$-21,305 (vs do-nothing $-13,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$86	27d	13 Nov 2026	$1.35	20/20	$2,700	$3,000	$3,000	76%hist 82%	49%hist 42%	81%	+$741	-$19,566	34.4%	1.8mo	$-20,005 (vs do-nothing $-12,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$84	13d	30 Oct 2026	$1.05	20/20	$2,100	$4,846	$4,846	76%hist 82%	49%hist 42%	81%	+$1,633	-$24,166	42.5%	2.3mo	$-24,605 (vs do-nothing $-17,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$85	20d	6 Nov 2026	$1.30	20/20	$2,600	$3,900	$3,900	76%hist 82%	50%hist 45%	81%	+$1,120	-$21,666	38.1%	2.0mo	$-22,105 (vs do-nothing $-14,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$85.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$1.60	20/20	$3,200	$3,556	$3,556	75%hist 82%	52%hist 45%	80%	+$1,062	-$20,066	35.3%	1.9mo	$-20,505 (vs do-nothing $-12,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$84.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$1.40	20/20	$2,800	$4,200	$4,200	74%hist 82%	54%hist 45%	80%	+$1,102	-$22,466	39.6%	2.1mo	$-22,905 (vs do-nothing $-15,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$85	27d	13 Nov 2026	$1.75	20/20	$3,500	$3,889	$3,889	73%hist 82%	55%hist 45%	79%	+$1,140	-$20,766	36.6%	2.0mo	$-21,205 (vs do-nothing $-13,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$84	20d	6 Nov 2026	$1.60	20/20	$3,200	$4,800	$4,800	72%hist 82%	58%hist 45%	78%	+$1,355	-$23,066	40.6%	2.2mo	$-23,505 (vs do-nothing $-15,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$84.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$1.75	20/20	$3,500	$3,889	$3,889	72%hist 82%	59%hist 45%	78%	+$865	-$21,766	38.3%	2.1mo	$-22,205 (vs do-nothing $-14,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$83.50	20d	6 Nov 2026	$1.75	20/20	$3,500	$5,250	$5,250	70%hist 64%	62%hist 57%	77%	+$1,425	-$23,766	41.8%	2.2mo	$-24,205 (vs do-nothing $-16,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$84	27d	13 Nov 2026	$2.00	20/20	$4,000	$4,444	$4,444	70%hist 64%	63%hist 57%	77%	+$1,123	-$22,266	39.2%	2.1mo	$-22,705 (vs do-nothing $-15,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$83.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$2.00	20/20	$4,000	$4,444	$4,444	68%hist 64%	67%hist 57%	76%	+$804	-$23,266	41.0%	2.2mo	$-23,705 (vs do-nothing $-16,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$83	27d	13 Nov 2026	$2.30	20/20	$4,600	$5,111	$5,111	66%hist 64%	71%hist 69%	75%	+$1,128	-$23,666	41.7%	2.2mo	$-24,105 (vs do-nothing $-16,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$82.50	27d	13 Nov 2026	$2.35	20/20	$4,700	$5,222	$5,222	64%hist 64%	75%hist 69%	74%	+$873	-$24,566	43.2%	2.3mo	$-25,005 (vs do-nothing $-17,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-17 03:18