COPX @ $71.94 UNDERWATER $13.06 (15.4% below SS)
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | SS: $85.00 | IV: HIGH
LC: $50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $45.798/sh)
SP: $90 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $22.443/sh)
HP: $71 exp 2026-06-18 (entry $5.444/sh)
Current CCs
| Contract | Expiry | Type | Status | Sigma | Survival | Entry |
|---|
| 8x $75 call | 2 Apr 2026 (3d) | FIGHT | ACTIVE | σ 0.78 | 78% | entry $2.29 |
| 42x $85 call | 17 Apr 2026 (18d) | CONS | SAFE | σ 1.36 | 91% | entry $1.21 |
Economics
| Max Loss | $235,000 | (ND $28.00 + SW $19) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $18,604/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $13,125/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-107,416 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| FIGHT CC | $72 call, $2.70 bid | exp 10 Apr 2026 (11d DTE) |
| Conservative CC | $85 call, $0.25 bid | exp 10 Apr 2026 (11d DTE) |
FIGHT Allocation
| Contracts | Income/mo | Net/mo | CC→SS Gap | Net@SS |
|---|
| Cover hedge | 15/50 | $13,432 | $307 | $14,700 | $-64,456 |
| Match normal | 43/50 | $32,141 | $19,016 | $42,140 | $-91,896 |
| Full FIGHT | 50/50 | $36,818 | $23,693 | $49,000 | $-98,756 |
FIGHT Options (exp 10 Apr 2026, 11d DTE)
Fortress delta: 0.883 (IBKR) | Gain@SS: $57,660
| OTM% | Strike | Bid | $/ct/mo | Survival | Hedge Ct | Match Ct | Gap/ct | Gap@Match | Net@Match | Net@Strike | Net@SS |
|---|
| 1% | $72 | $2.70 | $736 | 53% | 15/50 | 43/50 | $980 | $42,140 | $19,016 | $-93,333 | $-91,896 |
| 2% | $73 | $2.50 | $682 | 56% | 16/50 | 47/50 | $950 | $44,650 | $19,125 | $-90,986 | $-94,406 |
| 3% | $74 | $2.10 | $573 | 61% | 20/50 | 50/50 | $890 | $44,500 | $15,511 | $-87,821 | $-94,256 |
| 5% | $76 | $1.35 | $368 | 71% | 33/50 | 50/50 | $765 | $38,250 | $5,284 | $-82,741 | $-88,006 |
* = cannot fully match normal income with 50 contracts
TRADE RECOMMENDATION (match normal income)
Sell 43: COPX $72 call (exp 10 Apr 2026, 11d DTE, ~$2.70 bid)
Keep 7: $85 CC (~$0.25 bid)
Net income: $19,016/mo (target $18,604)
Gap CC→SS: $980/ct ($42,140 across 43 contracts)
Legend
| Max Loss (ML) | Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike. |
| Normal income ref | Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%) |
| Hedge rolling cost | Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares |
| FIGHT CC | Short-dated, near-ATM covered call for income recovery |
| Conservative CC | Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater) |
| Cover hedge | Min FIGHT contracts to pay for the hedge rolling cost |
| Match normal | FIGHT contracts needed to reach normal income target |
| Gap/ct | Net gap risk per contract: (SS - strike - bid) x 100. Max loss if stock rallies to SS, net of premium received. |
| Gap@Hedge | Total gap risk at cover-hedge contract count |
| Gap@Match | Total gap risk at match-normal contract count |
| Net@Match | Monthly income after hedge cost at match-normal level |