FORTRESS FIGHT: CRWV @ $91.42

BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $126.17 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-10 01:33

CRWV @ $91.42 UNDERWATER $34.03 (27.1% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $126.17 | IV: HIGH

LC: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $63.535/sh)

SP: $120 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.524/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.425/sh)

Current CCs

Contract	Expiry	Type	Status	Sigma	Survival	Entry
5x $90 call	10 Jul 2026 (0d)	FIGHT	ASSIGNMENT	no IV		entry $0.68

>>> ASSIGNMENT RISK: 5 contract(s) CLOSE BEFORE MARKET CLOSE, ITM + expiring, will be assigned

5x $90 call (10 Jul 2026, 0d DTE, sigma 0.00)

Buyback: ~$1.47 ask

CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (5 ct)	Sigma	Surv	Type
$92.50 17 Jul 2026	$4.24	+$2.77	+$1,386	0.10	54%	OUT+UP
$94 17 Jul 2026	$3.65	+$2.18	+$1,092	0.23	59%	OUT+UP
$95 17 Jul 2026	$3.23	+$1.76	+$880	0.32	63%	OUT+UP

BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (5 ct)	Sigma	Surv	Type
$117 31 Jul 2026	$1.50	+$0.04	+$19	1.33	91%	OUT+UP
$116 31 Jul 2026	$1.58	+$0.11	+$57	1.27	90%	OUT+UP
$115 31 Jul 2026	$1.71	+$0.24	+$121	1.22	89%	OUT+UP

SAFETY (short DTE, small debit, better sigma)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (5 ct)	Sigma	Surv	Type
$126 31 Jul 2026	$0.80	-$0.66	-$331	1.79	96%	OUT+UP
$125 31 Jul 2026	$0.86	-$0.60	-$301	1.74	96%	OUT+UP
$124 31 Jul 2026	$0.93	-$0.54	-$269	1.69	95%	OUT+UP

Economics

Max Loss	$50,225	(ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500
Normal income ref	$6,680/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$131/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-19,153	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,340/mo

HEDGE COVER
$131/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,680/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $10,225

ML VELOCITY
7.5 mo to earn back $50,225

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $126.17 (probe: $126C 14d) brings only $332/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,028

Hole (after banked)

$18,125

was $19,153 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$342

CC-SS ratchet

$128.14 → $126.17

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $90C 10 Jul 2026	U10001299	$0.68	$342	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 40 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 33 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $127.33 (+39%) · daily UBB $120.03 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $100 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,340/mo); it brings $3,707/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $95/7d for $6,857/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $125/7d (99% survival, $137/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $12,220 (120% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $125, recoverable in 1.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-19,183 and cuts bleed by $131/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $100, 79% survival, $3,707/mo (E[net] $877/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	5 × $100	79%	$3,707	$877

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $877/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $100 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $3,707/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $103 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $1,200/mo less (32% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $103 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CRWV to stay flat-to-down near term.

CRWV spot $91.42 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

4 × $125

17 Jul

36.7%

99%

$32

$137

-$3,570

$436

Sell 4 × $125 36.7% OTM over spot $91.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid)

= $32 credit for the 7d cycle → $137/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $125)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $125.09)

99%

EV / mo

+$116

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.5] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $20

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,855

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$134 @ 76% POP

69% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.67/sh now → $4.72 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$125	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.66/sh	+$666 cycle +$698	68% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$129	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.11/sh	+$44 cycle +$76	73% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$134	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.15/sh	+$60 cycle +$92	76% surv 69%
reaches SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$137/mo
vs 50% target ($3,340/mo)	-96%
vs normal income ($6,680/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$79/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $125 is $1 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$436
… as % of IC ($10,225)	4.3%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	0.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.1 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-15,328

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $125.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $123.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $124-125.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $125.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$125.00 (3.0σ)	$32	$-1,572	+$17,581	-$104
+2.5%	$128.12 (3.3σ)	$-1,218	$-1,505	+$17,648	-$104
+5%	$131.25 (3.6σ)	$-2,468	$-1,438	+$17,715	-$104

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,153

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,125

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $125): -$436

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$83

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,547 (+$17,606 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-104, the opportunity cost of earning $137/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $106

17 Jul

16.0%

90%

20%

$390

$1,671

-$2,036

$9,695

Sell 5 × $106 16.0% OTM over spot $91.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.83 mid)

= $390 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,671/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $106)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $106.83)

91%

EV / mo

+$955

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.9] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,250

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,610

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$119 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.66/sh now → $4.00 mid-life (likely $3.60–$6.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 453 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $109 (overshoots $2.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$106	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.02/sh	+$1,011 cycle +$1,401 [+$853…+$1,348] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.82/sh	+$410 cycle +$800 [-$4…+$677] · 75% credit	76% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$116	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.22/sh	+$108 cycle +$498 [-$382…+$358] · 45% credit	78% surv 72%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$111	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.09/sh	+$46 cycle +$436 [-$303…+$261] · 43% credit	74% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.59/sh	-$294 cycle +$96 [-$874…-$76] · 21% credit	81% surv 76%
budget: banked $390 debit $294 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,844/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,671/mo
vs 50% target ($3,340/mo)	-50%
vs normal income ($6,680/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,541/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $106 is $20 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,695
… as % of IC ($10,225)	94.8%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	19.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-19,180

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $106.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $104.94	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $105-106.83	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $106.83	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$106.00 (1.3σ)	$390	$-11,156	+$7,996	+$220
+2.5%	$108.65 (1.5σ)	$-935	$-11,099	+$8,053	-$1,105
+5%	$111.30 (1.8σ)	$-2,260	$-11,042	+$8,110	-$2,430
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (3.1σ)	$-9,335	$-10,738	+$8,414	-$9,280

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,153

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,125

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $106): -$9,695

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,723 (+$8,430 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,280, the opportunity cost of earning $1,671/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $103

17 Jul

12.7%

85%

30%

$585

$2,507

-$1,200

$11,000

Sell 5 × $103 12.7% OTM over spot $91.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.21 mid)

= $585 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,507/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $103)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $104.21)

88%

EV / mo

+$1,257

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.1] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,173

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,359

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$118 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $5.50/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $3.72–$6.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 622 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $106 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.06/sh	+$1,030 cycle +$1,615 [+$815…+$1,268] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$111	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.84/sh	+$422 cycle +$1,007 [-$32…+$622] · 72% credit	76% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$113	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.24/sh	+$122 cycle +$707 [-$385…+$290] · 42% credit	78% surv 72%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$108	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.13/sh	+$67 cycle +$652 [-$310…+$218] · 40% credit	74% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$118	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.00/sh	-$498 cycle +$87 [-$1,164…-$397] · 11% credit	83% surv 79%
budget: banked $585 debit $498 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$87 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,409/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,507/mo
vs 50% target ($3,340/mo)	-25%
vs normal income ($6,680/mo)	38% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,376/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $103 is $23 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,000
… as % of IC ($10,225)	107.6%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	21.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-19,173

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $104.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $101.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $102-104.21	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $104.21	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$103.00 (1.0σ)	$585	$-12,526	+$6,627	+$415
+2.5%	$105.57 (1.3σ)	$-702	$-12,471	+$6,682	-$872
+5%	$108.15 (1.5σ)	$-1,990	$-12,415	+$6,737	-$2,160
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (3.1σ)	$-10,640	$-12,043	+$7,109	-$10,585

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,153

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,125

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$11,000

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,028 (+$7,125 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,585, the opportunity cost of earning $2,507/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $100

17 Jul

9.4%

79%

35%

$865

$3,707

—

$12,220

Sell 5 × $100 9.4% OTM over spot $91.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.79 mid)

= $865 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,707/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $100)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $101.79)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,571

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.7] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,907

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

35%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,022

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$119 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $5.34/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $4.06–$6.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,050 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $103 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.09/sh	+$1,045 cycle +$1,910 [+$783…+$1,184] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$108	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.86/sh	+$431 cycle +$1,296 [-$93…+$466] · 67% credit	76% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$110	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.27/sh	+$133 cycle +$998 [-$449…+$139] · 33% credit	78% surv 72%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$105	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.17/sh	+$85 cycle +$950 [-$345…+$106] · 32% credit	75% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.68/sh	-$839 cycle +$26 [-$1,685…-$925] · 1% credit	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $865 debit $839 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,747/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,707/mo
vs 50% target ($3,340/mo)	+11%
vs normal income ($6,680/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,576/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $100 is $26 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,220
… as % of IC ($10,225)	119.5%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	24.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-19,183

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.73 collected) or spot ≥ $101.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $99-101.79	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $101.79	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$100.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$865	$-13,810	+$5,342	+$695
+2.5%	$102.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-385	$-13,757	+$5,396	-$555
+5%	$105.00 (1.2σ)	$-1,635	$-13,703	+$5,450	-$1,805
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (3.1σ)	$-11,860	$-13,263	+$5,889	-$11,805

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,153

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,125

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$12,220

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,248 (+$5,905 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,805, the opportunity cost of earning $3,707/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $95

17 Jul

3.9%

65%

73%

$1,600

$6,857

+$3,150

$13,985

Sell 5 × $95 3.9% OTM over spot $91.42 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.25 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $98.25)

75%

EV / mo

+$2,035

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~14.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,916

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

58%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$193

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$119 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.07/sh now → $3.59 mid-life (likely $4.67–$6.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,754 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $98 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.13/sh	+$1,065 cycle +$2,665 [+$740…+$983] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.22/sh	+$610 cycle +$2,210 [+$4…+$392] · 75% credit	75% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.22/sh	+$111 cycle +$1,711 [-$418…-$78] · 18% credit	75% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$105	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$145 cycle +$1,745 [-$574…-$107] · 18% credit	78% surv 72%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.28/sh	-$1,138 cycle +$462 [-$2,275…-$1,545]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,138 (71% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$462 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,090/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,857/mo
vs 50% target ($3,340/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($6,680/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,726/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $95 is $31 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,985
… as % of IC ($10,225)	136.8%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	27.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-19,178

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.80/sh (~25% of the $3.20 collected) or spot ≥ $98.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $94-98.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $98.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$95.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-15,683	+$3,470	+$1,430
+2.5%	$97.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$413	$-15,632	+$3,521	+$243
+5%	$99.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-775	$-15,581	+$3,572	-$945
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (3.1σ)	$-13,625	$-15,028	+$4,124	-$13,570

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,153

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,125

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$13,985

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,013 (+$4,140 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,443 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,570, the opportunity cost of earning $6,857/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CRWV are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (30 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.043 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,125 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,443

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$100	7d	17 Jul 2026	$1.73	5/5	$3,707	$3,576	79%	83%	+$1,571	-$12,220	119.5%	$-13,248 (vs do-nothing $-11,805)
$99	7d	17 Jul 2026	$1.96	4/5	$3,360	$3,302	77%	82%	+$1,331	-$10,084	98.6%	$-11,195 (vs do-nothing $-9,752)
$100	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	5/5	$3,482	$3,351	73%	79%	+$1,056	-$11,460	112.1%	$-12,488 (vs do-nothing $-11,045)
$97.50	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.38	4/5	$4,080	$4,022	73%	79%	+$1,475	-$10,516	102.8%	$-11,627 (vs do-nothing $-10,184)
$99	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.55	5/5	$3,804	$3,673	71%	78%	+$1,100	-$11,810	115.5%	$-12,838 (vs do-nothing $-11,395)
$98	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	5/5	$4,125	$3,994	69%	77%	+$1,119	-$12,160	118.9%	$-13,188 (vs do-nothing $-11,745)
$99	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	5/5	$3,571	$3,441	69%	77%	+$948	-$11,085	108.4%	$-12,113 (vs do-nothing $-10,670)
$96	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.86	3/5	$3,677	$3,692	68%	76%	+$1,195	-$8,193	80.1%	$-9,387 (vs do-nothing $-7,944)
$98	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.35	5/5	$3,821	$3,691	67%	76%	+$979	-$11,410	111.6%	$-12,438 (vs do-nothing $-10,995)
$97	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	4/5	$3,600	$3,542	67%	75%	+$932	-$9,988	97.7%	$-11,099 (vs do-nothing $-9,656)
$97	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	5/5	$4,071	$3,941	65%	75%	+$996	-$11,735	114.8%	$-12,763 (vs do-nothing $-11,320)
$95	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.20	3/5	$4,114	$4,129	65%	75%	+$1,221	-$8,391	82.1%	$-9,585 (vs do-nothing $-8,142)
$96	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	4/5	$3,900	$3,842	64%	74%	+$945	-$10,248	100.2%	$-11,359 (vs do-nothing $-9,916)

Show 17 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$96	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.05	4/5	$3,457	$3,399	63%	74%	+$798	-$9,648	94.4%	$-10,759 (vs do-nothing $-9,316)
$95	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.95	4/5	$4,243	$4,185	62%	73%	+$978	-$10,488	102.6%	$-11,599 (vs do-nothing $-10,156)
$94	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.60	3/5	$4,629	$4,644	62%	73%	+$1,273	-$8,571	83.8%	$-9,765 (vs do-nothing $-8,322)
$95	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.40	4/5	$3,657	$3,599	61%	72%	+$703	-$9,908	96.9%	$-11,019 (vs do-nothing $-9,576)
$94	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	3/5	$3,439	$3,454	60%	72%	+$740	-$8,046	78.7%	$-9,240 (vs do-nothing $-7,797)
$94	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.85	4/5	$3,914	$3,856	59%	72%	+$731	-$10,128	99.1%	$-11,239 (vs do-nothing $-9,796)
$93	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.30	4/5	$4,171	$4,114	57%	71%	+$746	-$10,348	101.2%	$-11,459 (vs do-nothing $-10,016)
$93	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	3/5	$3,696	$3,711	57%	71%	+$727	-$8,226	80.5%	$-9,420 (vs do-nothing $-7,977)
$92.50	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/5	$3,600	$3,688	56%	70%	+$833	-$5,894	57.6%	$-7,171 (vs do-nothing $-5,728)
$92	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.75	4/5	$4,429	$4,371	55%	70%	+$747	-$10,568	103.4%	$-11,679 (vs do-nothing $-10,236)
$92	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/5	$3,986	$4,001	55%	70%	+$728	-$8,391	82.1%	$-9,585 (vs do-nothing $-8,142)
$91	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.30	3/5	$3,557	$3,572	53%	69%	+$593	-$8,061	78.8%	$-9,255 (vs do-nothing $-7,812)
$91	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.65	3/5	$4,275	$4,290	52%	68%	+$708	-$8,556	83.7%	$-9,750 (vs do-nothing $-8,307)
$90	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.70	3/5	$3,729	$3,744	51%	68%	+$552	-$8,241	80.6%	$-9,435 (vs do-nothing $-7,992)
$91	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.95	2/5	$4,243	$4,331	51%	68%	+$862	-$6,044	59.1%	$-7,321 (vs do-nothing $-5,878)
$90	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/5	$4,629	$4,644	50%	67%	+$733	-$8,691	85.0%	$-9,885 (vs do-nothing $-8,442)
$90	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.45	2/5	$4,671	$4,759	47%	66%	+$834	-$6,144	60.1%	$-7,421 (vs do-nothing $-5,978)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-10 01:33