5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $125.73 | IV: HIGH
| Contract | Expiry | Type | Status | Sigma | Survival | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $90 call | 10 Jul 2026 (0d) | FIGHT | ASSIGNMENT | no IV | entry $0.68 |
| Target | Sell @ | Net/sh | Total (5 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $92.50 17 Jul 2026 | $4.59 | +$2.39 | +$1,194 | 0.03 | 51% | OUT+UP |
| $94 17 Jul 2026 | $3.92 | +$1.72 | +$862 | 0.17 | 57% | OUT+UP |
| $95 17 Jul 2026 | $3.52 | +$1.32 | +$662 | 0.26 | 60% | OUT+UP |
| Target | Sell @ | Net/sh | Total (5 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 31 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | +$0.10 | +$50 | 0.98 | 84% | OUT+UP |
| $110 31 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | +$0.32 | +$159 | 0.93 | 82% | OUT+UP |
| $109 31 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | +$0.50 | +$251 | 0.88 | 81% | OUT+UP |
| Target | Sell @ | Net/sh | Total (5 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $121 31 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | -$1.03 | -$515 | 1.50 | 93% | OUT+UP |
| $120 31 Jul 2026 | $1.23 | -$0.97 | -$484 | 1.45 | 93% | OUT+UP |
| $119 31 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | -$0.88 | -$439 | 1.39 | 92% | OUT+UP |
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,911/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $118/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,555 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $90C 10 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.68 | $342 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $101 | 80% | $3,579 | $986 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $126 | 17 Jul | 7d | 36.7% | 99% | 2% | $30 | $129 | -$3,450 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $126 36.7% OTM over spot $92.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.12 mid) = $30 credit for the 7d cycle → $129/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $126) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $126.12) 99% EV / mo +$103 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.4] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-182 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,331 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $135 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.68/sh now → $4.72 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $126 is at/above CC-SS $125.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $126.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $126)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,555 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,527 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $126): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,028 (+$17,527 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$194, the opportunity cost of earning $129/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $107 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.1% | 91% | 19% | $355 | $1,521 | -$2,057 | $9,009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $107 16.1% OTM over spot $92.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.76 mid) = $355 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,521/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $107.75) 92% EV / mo +$857 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.5] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,108 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,650 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.67/sh now → $4.01 mid-life (likely $3.34–$5.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 407 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $110 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $19 below CC-SS $125.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $107.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,555 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,527 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $107): -$9,009 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,036 (+$8,519 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,815, the opportunity cost of earning $1,521/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $104 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.9% | 86% | 29% | $560 | $2,400 | -$1,179 | $10,304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $104 12.9% OTM over spot $92.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.15 mid) = $560 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $105.15) 88% EV / mo +$1,229 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.1-3.4] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,715 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,389 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $118 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.51/sh now → $3.90 mid-life (likely $3.65–$5.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 670 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $22 below CC-SS $125.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.12 collected) or spot ≥ $105.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,555 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,527 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$10,304 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,331 (+$7,224 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,110, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $101 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.6% | 80% | 32% | $835 | $3,579 | — | $11,529 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $101 9.6% OTM over spot $92.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.71 mid) = $835 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,579/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $102.71) 84% EV / mo +$1,559 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.6] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,886 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,057 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.78 mid-life (likely $3.95–$6.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 959 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $104 (overshoots $2.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $25 below CC-SS $125.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.67 collected) or spot ≥ $102.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,555 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,527 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $101): -$11,529 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,556 (+$5,999 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,335, the opportunity cost of earning $3,579/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $95 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.1% | 62% | 79% | $1,750 | $7,500 | +$3,921 | $13,614 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $95 3.1% OTM over spot $92.15 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.55 mid) = $1,750 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $98.55) 73% EV / mo +$2,112 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~16.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,907 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$30 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $119 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.03/sh now → $3.56 mid-life (likely $4.74–$6.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,863 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $98 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $31 below CC-SS $125.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.88/sh (~25% of the $3.50 collected) or spot ≥ $98.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,555 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,527 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$13,614 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,641 (+$3,914 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,420, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,527 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,221
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.67 | 5/5 | $3,579 | $3,461 | 80% | 84% | +$1,559 | -$11,529 | 112.7% | $-12,556 (vs do-nothing $-11,335) |
| $100 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 5/5 | $4,093 | $3,975 | 77% | 82% | +$1,687 | -$11,909 | 116.5% | $-12,936 (vs do-nothing $-11,715) |
| $99 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 4/5 | $3,703 | $3,658 | 75% | 80% | +$1,419 | -$9,827 | 96.1% | $-10,893 (vs do-nothing $-9,672) |
| $100 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 5/5 | $3,643 | $3,525 | 72% | 78% | +$1,057 | -$11,164 | 109.2% | $-12,191 (vs do-nothing $-10,970) |
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 4/5 | $4,457 | $4,412 | 70% | 78% | +$1,532 | -$10,251 | 100.3% | $-11,317 (vs do-nothing $-10,096) |
| $99 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 5/5 | $4,018 | $3,900 | 70% | 77% | +$1,136 | -$11,489 | 112.4% | $-12,516 (vs do-nothing $-11,295) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 4/5 | $3,514 | $3,469 | 67% | 76% | +$950 | -$9,451 | 92.4% | $-10,517 (vs do-nothing $-9,296) |
| $99 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 5/5 | $3,643 | $3,525 | 67% | 75% | +$758 | -$10,814 | 105.8% | $-11,841 (vs do-nothing $-10,620) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 3/5 | $3,986 | $4,014 | 66% | 75% | +$1,206 | -$7,988 | 78.1% | $-9,093 (vs do-nothing $-7,872) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 5/5 | $3,893 | $3,775 | 65% | 74% | +$770 | -$11,139 | 108.9% | $-12,166 (vs do-nothing $-10,945) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 4/5 | $3,814 | $3,769 | 65% | 75% | +$968 | -$9,711 | 95.0% | $-10,777 (vs do-nothing $-9,556) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 5/5 | $4,179 | $4,061 | 64% | 73% | +$803 | -$11,439 | 111.9% | $-12,466 (vs do-nothing $-11,245) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 4/5 | $4,114 | $4,069 | 63% | 73% | +$963 | -$9,971 | 97.5% | $-11,037 (vs do-nothing $-9,816) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $4,528 | 62% | 73% | +$1,267 | -$8,168 | 79.9% | $-9,273 (vs do-nothing $-8,052) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 4/5 | $3,600 | $3,555 | 62% | 73% | +$684 | -$9,371 | 91.6% | $-10,437 (vs do-nothing $-9,216) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 4/5 | $4,500 | $4,455 | 60% | 72% | +$1,018 | -$10,191 | 99.7% | $-11,257 (vs do-nothing $-10,036) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 4/5 | $3,829 | $3,784 | 60% | 72% | +$684 | -$9,611 | 94.0% | $-10,677 (vs do-nothing $-9,456) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 3/5 | $5,014 | $5,042 | 59% | 72% | +$1,275 | -$8,348 | 81.6% | $-9,453 (vs do-nothing $-8,232) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 3/5 | $3,632 | $3,660 | 58% | 71% | +$754 | -$7,823 | 76.5% | $-8,928 (vs do-nothing $-7,707) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 4/5 | $4,057 | $4,012 | 58% | 71% | +$671 | -$9,851 | 96.3% | $-10,917 (vs do-nothing $-9,696) |
| $93 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 4/5 | $4,257 | $4,212 | 56% | 70% | +$617 | -$10,111 | 98.9% | $-11,177 (vs do-nothing $-9,956) |
| $93 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 3/5 | $3,954 | $3,981 | 56% | 70% | +$790 | -$7,973 | 78.0% | $-9,078 (vs do-nothing $-7,857) |
| $92 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 4/5 | $4,486 | $4,441 | 54% | 69% | +$577 | -$10,351 | 101.2% | $-11,417 (vs do-nothing $-10,196) |
| $92.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 2/5 | $3,900 | $4,001 | 54% | 69% | +$832 | -$5,735 | 56.1% | $-6,879 (vs do-nothing $-5,658) |
| $92 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/5 | $4,243 | $4,271 | 53% | 69% | +$774 | -$8,138 | 79.6% | $-9,243 (vs do-nothing $-8,022) |
| $91 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.30 | 3/5 | $3,557 | $3,585 | 52% | 68% | +$414 | -$7,928 | 77.5% | $-9,033 (vs do-nothing $-7,812) |
| $91 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 3/5 | $4,564 | $4,592 | 50% | 68% | +$770 | -$8,288 | 81.1% | $-9,393 (vs do-nothing $-8,172) |
| $91 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 2/5 | $4,543 | $4,644 | 48% | 67% | +$816 | -$5,885 | 57.6% | $-7,029 (vs do-nothing $-5,808) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.
3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $455.97 | IV: HIGH
| Contract | Expiry | Type | Status | Sigma | Survival | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $450 call | 10 Jul 2026 (0d) | CONS | ROLL | no IV | entry $10.58 |
| Target | Sell @ | Net/sh | Total (3 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $457.50 17 Jul 2026 | $22.52 | +$16.50 | +$4,951 | 0.03 | 51% | OUT+UP |
| $460 17 Jul 2026 | $21.59 | +$15.57 | +$4,670 | 0.07 | 53% | OUT+UP |
| $462.50 17 Jul 2026 | $20.50 | +$14.48 | +$4,344 | 0.12 | 55% | OUT+UP |
| Target | Sell @ | Net/sh | Total (3 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $560 31 Jul 2026 | $8.74 | +$2.72 | +$815 | 1.11 | 87% | OUT+UP |
| $550 31 Jul 2026 | $9.77 | +$3.75 | +$1,126 | 1.01 | 84% | OUT+UP |
| $550 24 Jul 2026 | $6.09 | +$0.07 | +$20 | 1.23 | 89% | OUT+UP |
| Max Loss | $89,400 | (ND $58.00 + SW $240) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $19,434/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $271/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $14,762 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $450C 10 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $10.58 | $3,175 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $500 | 80% | $10,929 | $3,132 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $560 | 17 Jul | 7d | 22.8% | 96% | 8% | $150 | $643 | -$10,286 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $560 22.8% OTM over spot $455.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.67 mid) = $150 credit for the 7d cycle → $643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $560) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $561.67) 96% EV / mo +$439 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,946 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $604 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $29.64/sh now → $20.96 mid-life (likely $14.99–$29.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 147 simulated challenges: the $560 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $575 (overshoots $15.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $560 is at/above CC-SS $455.97: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.50 collected) or spot ≥ $561.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $560)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $452.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $455.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $14,762 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $560): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $455): +$6,046 Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,807 (+$6,046 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $23,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,023, the opportunity cost of earning $643/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $530 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.2% | 91% | 20% | $1,095 | $4,693 | -$6,236 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $530 16.2% OTM over spot $455.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.88 mid) = $1,095 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,693/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $530) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $533.88) 91% EV / mo +$2,675 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,857 Free roll-up +$19/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $574 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $28.05/sh now → $19.84 mid-life (likely $17.42–$29.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$16.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 407 simulated challenges: the $530 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $544 (overshoots $13.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $530 is at/above CC-SS $455.97: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.91/sh (~25% of the $3.65 collected) or spot ≥ $533.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $530)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $452.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $455.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $14,762 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $530): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $14,762 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $23,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,069, the opportunity cost of earning $4,693/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $517.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.5% | 87% | 27% | $1,515 | $6,493 | -$4,436 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $517.50 13.5% OTM over spot $455.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.45 mid) = $1,515 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,493/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $517.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $522.95) 89% EV / mo +$3,251 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,297 Free roll-up +$19/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $572 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $27.39/sh now → $19.37 mid-life (likely $17.94–$30.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$14.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 550 simulated challenges: the $518 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $531 (overshoots $13.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $517.50 is at/above CC-SS $455.97: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.26/sh (~25% of the $5.05 collected) or spot ≥ $522.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $518)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $452.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $455.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $14,762 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $517.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $14,762 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $23,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,069, the opportunity cost of earning $6,493/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $500 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.7% | 80% | 32% | $2,550 | $10,929 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $500 9.7% OTM over spot $455.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $8.62 mid) = $2,550 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $500) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $508.62) 84% EV / mo +$4,921 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,065 Free roll-up +$19/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $574 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $26.46/sh now → $18.72 mid-life (likely $19.79–$30.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 972 simulated challenges: the $500 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $513 (overshoots $12.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $500 is at/above CC-SS $455.97: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.12/sh (~25% of the $8.50 collected) or spot ≥ $508.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $500)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $452.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $455.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $14,762 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $500): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $14,762 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $23,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,069, the opportunity cost of earning $10,929/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $475 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.2% | 66% | 72% | $4,590 | $19,671 | +$8,743 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $475 4.2% OTM over spot $455.97 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $15.65 mid) = $4,590 credit for the 7d cycle → $19,671/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $475) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $490.65) 75% EV / mo +$5,874 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$744 Free roll-up +$19/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $559 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $25.14/sh now → $17.78 mid-life (likely $22.40–$32.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $15.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,652 simulated challenges: the $475 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $488 (overshoots $13.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $475 is at/above CC-SS $455.97: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.83/sh (~25% of the $15.30 collected) or spot ≥ $490.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $475)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $452.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $455.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $14,762 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $475): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $14,762 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $23,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,069, the opportunity cost of earning $19,671/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 45 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.041 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $23,830
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 3/3 | $10,929 | $10,658 | 80% | 84% | +$4,921 | -$0 | 0.0% | $17,312 (vs do-nothing $-6,519) |
| $497.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 3/3 | $11,057 | $10,786 | 79% | 83% | +$4,494 | -$0 | 0.0% | $17,342 (vs do-nothing $-6,489) |
| $495 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 3/3 | $12,086 | $11,815 | 77% | 82% | +$4,924 | -$0 | 0.0% | $17,582 (vs do-nothing $-6,249) |
| $492.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 3/3 | $12,600 | $12,329 | 76% | 81% | +$4,795 | -$0 | 0.0% | $17,702 (vs do-nothing $-6,129) |
| $490 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $10.35 | 3/3 | $13,307 | $13,036 | 75% | 80% | +$4,813 | -$0 | 0.0% | $17,866 (vs do-nothing $-5,964) |
| $487.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $11.00 | 3/3 | $14,143 | $13,872 | 73% | 79% | +$4,843 | -$0 | 0.0% | $18,062 (vs do-nothing $-5,769) |
| $495 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.75 | 3/3 | $10,125 | $9,854 | 72% | 78% | +$2,779 | -$0 | 0.0% | $19,486 (vs do-nothing $-4,344) |
| $485 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $12.00 | 2/3 | $10,286 | $16,701 | 72% | 79% | +$3,561 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,184 (vs do-nothing $-3,646) |
| $482.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $12.50 | 2/3 | $10,714 | $17,129 | 70% | 78% | +$3,429 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,284 (vs do-nothing $-3,546) |
| $490 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $17.35 | 3/3 | $11,154 | $10,883 | 70% | 77% | +$2,950 | -$0 | 0.0% | $19,966 (vs do-nothing $-3,864) |
| $495 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $22.75 | 3/3 | $9,750 | $9,479 | 69% | 77% | +$2,434 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,586 (vs do-nothing $-2,244) |
| $480 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $13.30 | 2/3 | $11,400 | $17,815 | 69% | 77% | +$3,516 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,444 (vs do-nothing $-3,386) |
| $485 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $18.90 | 3/3 | $12,150 | $11,879 | 68% | 76% | +$3,007 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,432 (vs do-nothing $-3,399) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $490 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $22.70 | 3/3 | $9,729 | $9,458 | 67% | 75% | +$1,773 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,572 (vs do-nothing $-2,259) |
| $477.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $14.10 | 2/3 | $12,086 | $18,501 | 67% | 76% | +$3,565 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,604 (vs do-nothing $-3,226) |
| $485 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $25.75 | 3/3 | $11,036 | $10,765 | 66% | 75% | +$2,513 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,486 (vs do-nothing $-1,344) |
| $475 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $15.30 | 2/3 | $13,114 | $19,529 | 66% | 75% | +$3,916 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,844 (vs do-nothing $-2,986) |
| $480 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $20.65 | 3/3 | $13,275 | $13,004 | 65% | 74% | +$3,106 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,956 (vs do-nothing $-2,874) |
| $472.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $16.05 | 2/3 | $13,757 | $20,172 | 64% | 74% | +$3,840 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,994 (vs do-nothing $-2,836) |
| $480 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $27.10 | 3/3 | $11,614 | $11,343 | 64% | 74% | +$2,352 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,892 (vs do-nothing $-939) |
| $475 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $22.50 | 3/3 | $14,464 | $14,193 | 63% | 73% | +$3,179 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,512 (vs do-nothing $-2,319) |
| $470 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $17.10 | 2/3 | $14,657 | $21,072 | 62% | 73% | +$3,978 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,204 (vs do-nothing $-2,626) |
| $475 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $29.05 | 3/3 | $12,450 | $12,179 | 62% | 73% | +$2,398 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,476 (vs do-nothing $-354) |
| $467.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $17.75 | 2/3 | $15,214 | $21,629 | 61% | 72% | +$3,729 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,334 (vs do-nothing $-2,496) |
| $470 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $24.45 | 2/3 | $10,479 | $16,893 | 60% | 72% | +$2,147 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,674 (vs do-nothing $-1,156) |
| $470 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $30.00 | 3/3 | $12,857 | $12,586 | 60% | 72% | +$1,963 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,762 (vs do-nothing $-69) |
| $465 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $19.25 | 2/3 | $16,500 | $22,915 | 59% | 72% | +$4,164 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,634 (vs do-nothing $-2,196) |
| $465 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $26.60 | 2/3 | $11,400 | $17,815 | 58% | 71% | +$2,196 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,104 (vs do-nothing $-726) |
| $465 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $32.25 | 3/3 | $13,821 | $13,551 | 58% | 71% | +$2,032 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,436 (vs do-nothing +$606) |
| $462.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $20.25 | 2/3 | $17,357 | $23,772 | 57% | 71% | +$4,125 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,834 (vs do-nothing $-1,996) |
| $460 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $35.20 | 2/3 | $10,057 | $16,472 | 56% | 70% | +$1,565 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,824 (vs do-nothing +$994) |
| $460 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $28.85 | 2/3 | $12,364 | $18,779 | 55% | 70% | +$2,220 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,554 (vs do-nothing $-276) |
| $460 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $21.40 | 2/3 | $18,343 | $24,758 | 55% | 70% | +$4,168 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,064 (vs do-nothing $-1,766) |
| $457.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $30.10 | 2/3 | $12,900 | $19,315 | 54% | 69% | +$2,260 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,804 (vs do-nothing $-26) |
| $455 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $37.45 | 2/3 | $10,700 | $17,115 | 54% | 69% | +$1,538 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,080 (vs do-nothing +$1,250) |
| $457.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $22.20 | 2/3 | $19,029 | $25,443 | 53% | 69% | +$3,864 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,224 (vs do-nothing $-1,606) |
| $455 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $31.20 | 2/3 | $13,371 | $19,786 | 53% | 68% | +$2,219 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,830 (vs do-nothing $-0) |
| $455 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $23.35 | 1/3 | $10,007 | $23,108 | 52% | 68% | +$1,906 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,045 (vs do-nothing $-785) |
| $450 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $40.10 | 2/3 | $11,457 | $17,872 | 52% | 68% | +$1,589 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,610 (vs do-nothing +$780) |
| $452.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $32.50 | 2/3 | $13,929 | $20,343 | 51% | 68% | +$2,246 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,590 (vs do-nothing $-240) |
| $450 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $33.75 | 2/3 | $14,464 | $20,879 | 50% | 67% | +$2,233 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,340 (vs do-nothing $-490) |
| $452.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $24.60 | 1/3 | $10,543 | $23,643 | 50% | 67% | +$1,899 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,920 (vs do-nothing $-910) |
| $447.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $35.05 | 2/3 | $15,021 | $21,436 | 49% | 67% | +$2,225 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,100 (vs do-nothing $-730) |
| $450 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $26.00 | 1/3 | $11,143 | $24,243 | 48% | 67% | +$1,933 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,810 (vs do-nothing $-1,020) |
| $447.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $27.25 | 1/3 | $11,679 | $24,779 | 46% | 66% | +$1,878 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,685 (vs do-nothing $-1,145) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.