GLD @ $418.26 UNDERWATER $37.74 (8.3% below SS)
10 contracts (1,000 sh) | SS: $456.00 | IV: MEDIUM
LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)
SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)
HP: $410 exp 2026-06-30 (entry $7.213/sh)
Current CCs
| Contract | Expiry | Type | Status | Sigma | Survival | Entry |
|---|
| 5x $422 call | 2 Apr 2026 (8d) | FIGHT | ROLL | σ 0.17 | 57% | entry $9.59 |
| 5x $456 call | 17 Apr 2026 (23d) | CONS | ROLL | σ 1.03 | 85% | entry $4.03 |
>>> ROLL ALERT: 10 contract(s) need immediate action
5x $422 call (2 Apr 2026, 8d DTE, sigma 0.17)
Buyback: ~$9.75 ask
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
| Target | Bid | Net/sh | Total (5 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|
| $422 6 Apr 2026 | $10.10 | +$0.35 | +$175 | 0.14 | 56% | OUT |
| $423 8 Apr 2026 | $10.55 | +$0.80 | +$400 | 0.17 | 57% | OUT+UP |
| $422 8 Apr 2026 | $10.45 | +$0.70 | +$350 | 0.13 | 55% | OUT |
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE)
| Target | Bid | Net/sh | Total (5 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|
| $436 24 Apr 2026 | $10.00 | +$0.25 | +$125 | 0.42 | 66% | OUT+UP |
| $435 24 Apr 2026 | $10.35 | +$0.60 | +$300 | 0.40 | 65% | OUT+UP |
| $434 24 Apr 2026 | $10.65 | +$0.90 | +$450 | 0.37 | 65% | OUT+UP |
SAFETY (short DTE, small debit, better sigma)
| Target | Bid | Net/sh | Total (5 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|
| $457 24 Apr 2026 | $4.95 | -$4.80 | -$2,400 | 0.92 | 82% | OUT+UP |
| $456 24 Apr 2026 | $5.10 | -$4.65 | -$2,325 | 0.90 | 82% | OUT+UP |
| $455 24 Apr 2026 | $5.30 | -$4.45 | -$2,225 | 0.88 | 81% | OUT+UP |
5x $456 call (17 Apr 2026, 23d DTE, sigma 1.03)
Buyback: ~$4.15 ask
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
| Target | Bid | Net/sh | Total (5 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|
| $456 24 Apr 2026 | $5.10 | +$0.95 | +$475 | 0.90 | 82% | OUT |
| $457 24 Apr 2026 | $4.95 | +$0.80 | +$400 | 0.92 | 82% | OUT+UP |
| $458 24 Apr 2026 | $4.80 | +$0.65 | +$325 | 0.95 | 83% | OUT+UP |
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE)
| Target | Bid | Net/sh | Total (5 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|
| $462 24 Apr 2026 | $4.15 | +$0.00 | +$0 | 1.04 | 85% | OUT+UP |
| $461 24 Apr 2026 | $4.30 | +$0.15 | +$75 | 1.02 | 85% | OUT+UP |
| $460 24 Apr 2026 | $4.45 | +$0.30 | +$150 | 0.99 | 84% | OUT+UP |
SAFETY (short DTE, small debit, better sigma)
| Target | Bid | Net/sh | Total (5 ct) | Sigma | Surv | Type |
|---|
| $457 10 Apr 2026 | $2.61 | -$1.54 | -$770 | 1.26 | 90% | UP |
| $457 17 Apr 2026 | $3.80 | -$0.35 | -$175 | 1.05 | 85% | UP |
Economics
| Max Loss | $177,336 | (ND $137.34 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,084/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $6,619/mo | |
| FIGHT CC | $422 call, $7.90 bid | exp 1 Apr 2026 (7d DTE) |
| Conservative CC | $456 call, $1.63 bid | exp 6 Apr 2026 (12d DTE) |
FIGHT Allocation
| Contracts | Income/mo | Net/mo | CC→SS Gap | Net@SS |
|---|
| Cover hedge | 1/10 | $7,053 | $435 | $2,610 | $33,314 |
| Match normal | 5/10 | $18,966 | $12,348 | $13,050 | $22,874 |
| Full FIGHT | 10/10 | $33,857 | $27,239 | $26,100 | $9,824 |
FIGHT Options (exp 1 Apr 2026, 7d DTE)
Fortress delta: 0.952 (IBKR) | Gain@SS: $35,924
| OTM% | Strike | Bid | $/ct/mo | Survival | Hedge Ct | Match Ct | Gap/ct | Gap@Match | Net@Match | Net@Strike | Net@SS |
|---|
| 1% | $422 | $7.90 | $3,386 | 57% | 1/10 | 5/10 | $2,610 | $13,050 | $12,348 | $7,506 | $22,874 |
| 2% | $427 | $6.40 | $2,743 | 67% | 2/10 | 6/10 | $2,260 | $13,560 | $11,469 | $12,156 | $22,364 |
| 3% | $431 | $4.95 | $2,121 | 74% | 2/10 | 8/10 | $2,005 | $16,040 | $11,168 | $16,084 | $19,884 |
| 5% | $439 | $2.96 | $1,269 | 85% | 3/10 | 10/10 | $1,404 | $14,040 | $6,067 | $22,700 | $21,884 |
* = cannot fully match normal income with 10 contracts
TRADE RECOMMENDATION (match normal income)
Sell 5: GLD $422 call (exp 1 Apr 2026, 7d DTE, ~$7.90 bid)
Keep 5: $456 CC (~$1.63 bid)
Net income: $12,348/mo (target $11,084)
Gap CC→SS: $2,610/ct ($13,050 across 5 contracts)
Legend
| Max Loss (ML) | Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike. |
| Normal income ref | Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%) |
| Hedge rolling cost | Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares |
| FIGHT CC | Short-dated, near-ATM covered call for income recovery |
| Conservative CC | Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater) |
| Cover hedge | Min FIGHT contracts to pay for the hedge rolling cost |
| Match normal | FIGHT contracts needed to reach normal income target |
| Gap/ct | Net gap risk per contract: (SS - strike - bid) x 100. Max loss if stock rallies to SS, net of premium received. |
| Gap@Hedge | Total gap risk at cover-hedge contract count |
| Gap@Match | Total gap risk at match-normal contract count |
| Net@Match | Monthly income after hedge cost at match-normal level |