FORTRESS FIGHT: GLD @ $370.05

BE SS: $456.00  |  CC-SS: $466.09  |  10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  2026-07-09 00:04

GLD @ $370.05   UNDERWATER $85.95 (18.8% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $456.00  |  CC-SS: $466.09  |  IV: MEDIUM

LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)
SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)
HP: $330 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $4.500/sh)

Current CCs

ContractExpiryTypeStatusSigmaSurvivalEntry
5x $410 call31 Jul 2026 (22d)FIGHTACTIVEσ 1.6795%entry $7.37

Economics

Max Loss$256,000(ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 1000
Normal income ref$18,346/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$1,621/mo
Unrealized P&L$-131,915fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,173/mo
HEDGE COVER
$1,621/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$18,346/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $136,000
ML VELOCITY
14.0 mo to earn back $256,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $466.09 (probe: $465C 15d) brings only $40/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$248
Hole (after banked)
$131,667
was $131,915 · 0% earned back
Cycles closed
2
Credit in flight
$1,650
CC-SS ratchet
$466.27 → $466.09
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
5x $410C 31 Jul 2026U10001299$3.30$1,6502026-07-02
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 10 contracts at $380 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 75%, breach 25%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($9,173/mo); it brings $9,900/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $373/8d for $20,062/mo, but breach risk rises to 42% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $394/8d (95% survival, $1,725/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $83,447 (61% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $456, recoverable in 4.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-131,985 and cuts bleed by $1,621/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 10 × $380, 75% survival, $9,900/mo (E[net] $1,974/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 8d10 × $38075%$9,900$1,974

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $1,974/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $380 (primary), 75% survival, breach 25%, $9,900/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $384 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 25% → 17%) for $3,788/mo less (38% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $384 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLD to stay flat-to-down near term.
GLD  spot $370.05 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge10 × $39417 Jul8d6.5%95%10%$460$1,725-$8,175$71,627
Sell 10 × $394 6.5% OTM over spot $370.05 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.53 mid)
= $460 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,725/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $394)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $394.53)
95%
EV / mo
+$1,188
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 4.7 mo [3.2-6.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.9 mo)  ·  29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without)  ·  ~2.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-1,611
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
8%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,559
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$399 @ 72% POP
61% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.51/sh now → $6.02 mid-life (likely $4.55–$8.26)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.56/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 235 simulated challenges: the $394 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $397 (overshoots $3.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$39420 Jul 20267d left+$0.92/sh+$915
cycle +$1,375
[+$681…+$1,896] · 95% credit
67%
surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$39520 Jul 20267d left+$0.35/sh+$354
cycle +$814
[-$7…+$1,242] · 75% credit
68%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$39924 Jul 202611d left+$0.24/sh+$241
cycle +$701
[-$292…+$1,361] · 68% credit
72%
surv 61%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,725/mo
vs 50% target ($9,173/mo)-81%
vs normal income ($18,346/mo)9% covered
Net income (after hedge)$104/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $394 is $72 below CC-SS $466.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$71,627
… as % of IC ($136,000)52.7%
… as % of ML ($256,000)28.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-131,985
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $394.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $394)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $390.06Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$390-394.53
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $394.53
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.37 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$394.00 (1.7σ)$460$-98,619+$33,295+$450
+2.5%$403.85 (2.3σ)$-9,390$-94,965+$36,950-$9,400
+5%$413.70 (3.0σ)$-19,240$-91,310+$40,604-$19,250
SS (= V-bounce)$456.00 (6.0σ)$-61,540$-75,617+$56,297-$60,550
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $466.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,915
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$131,667
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $394): -$71,627
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,875 (+$60,040 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,325 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,550, the opportunity cost of earning $1,725/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield10 × $38917 Jul8d5.1%90%20%$880$3,300-$6,600$76,207
Sell 10 × $389 5.1% OTM over spot $370.05 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.95 mid)
= $880 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,300/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $389)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $389.94)
91%
EV / mo
+$1,882
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.8 mo [3.0-6.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.0 mo)  ·  27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without)  ·  ~4.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $6,265
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
15%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,926
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$396 @ 74% POP
65% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.21/sh now → $5.81 mid-life (likely $4.46–$7.78)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.93/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 464 simulated challenges: the $389 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $392 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$38920 Jul 20267d left+$0.88/sh+$883
cycle +$1,763
[+$631…+$1,681] · 95% credit
67%
surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$39020 Jul 20267d left+$0.32/sh+$323
cycle +$1,203
[-$11…+$1,007] · 74% credit
68%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$39424 Jul 202611d left+$0.15/sh+$154
cycle +$1,034
[-$372…+$1,094] · 60% credit
72%
surv 61%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$39624 Jul 202611d left-$0.69/sh-$689
cycle +$191
[-$1,363…+$223] · 33% credit
74%
surv 65%
budget: banked $880 debit $689 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$191 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $13,958/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,300/mo
vs 50% target ($9,173/mo)-64%
vs normal income ($18,346/mo)18% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,679/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $389 is $77 below CC-SS $466.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$76,207
… as % of IC ($136,000)56.0%
… as % of ML ($256,000)29.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)4.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-131,980
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $389.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $389)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $385.11Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$385-389.94
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $389.94
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.37 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$389.00 (1.3σ)$880$-105,054+$26,860+$870
+2.5%$398.72 (2.0σ)$-8,845$-101,446+$30,468-$8,855
+5%$408.45 (2.7σ)$-18,570$-97,838+$34,076-$18,580
SS (= V-bounce)$456.00 (6.0σ)$-66,120$-80,197+$51,717-$65,130
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $466.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,915
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$131,667
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $389): -$76,207
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-76,455 (+$55,460 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,325 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-65,130, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean10 × $38417 Jul8d3.8%83%34%$1,630$6,112-$3,788$80,457
Sell 10 × $384 3.8% OTM over spot $370.05 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.71 mid)
= $1,630 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,112/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $384)
83%
Breach risk
17%
POP (stays ≤ $385.71)
86%
EV / mo
+$2,860
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 5.2 mo [3.6-7.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without)  ·  ~7.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $17,928
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
25%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,968
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$393 @ 77% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.92/sh now → $5.60 mid-life (likely $5.16–$8.26)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.97/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 743 simulated challenges: the $384 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $387 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$38420 Jul 20267d left+$0.85/sh+$851
cycle +$2,481
[+$375…+$1,353] · 92% credit
67%
surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$38724 Jul 202611d left+$1.00/sh+$1,005
cycle +$2,635
[+$283…+$1,645] · 85% credit
70%
surv 57%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$38520 Jul 20267d left+$0.29/sh+$293
cycle +$1,923
[-$263…+$736] · 58% credit
68%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$38924 Jul 202611d left+$0.07/sh+$69
cycle +$1,699
[-$785…+$629] · 43% credit
72%
surv 61%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$39324 Jul 202611d left-$1.54/sh-$1,542
cycle +$88
[-$2,692…-$1,149] · 10% credit
77%
surv 69%
budget: banked $1,630 debit $1,542 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $11,060/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,112/mo
vs 50% target ($9,173/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($18,346/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,491/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $384 is $82 below CC-SS $466.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$80,457
… as % of IC ($136,000)59.2%
… as % of ML ($256,000)31.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)4.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-132,000
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.63 collected) or spot ≥ $385.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $384)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $380.16Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$380-385.71
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $385.71
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.37 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$384.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,630$-111,159+$20,755+$1,620
+2.5%$393.60 (1.6σ)$-7,970$-107,597+$24,317-$7,980
+5%$403.20 (2.3σ)$-17,570$-104,036+$27,879-$17,580
SS (= V-bounce)$456.00 (6.0σ)$-70,370$-84,447+$47,467-$69,380
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $466.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,915
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$131,667
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $384): -$80,457
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-80,705 (+$51,210 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,325 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,380, the opportunity cost of earning $6,112/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal10 × $38017 Jul8d2.7%75%39%$2,640$9,900$83,447
Sell 10 × $380 2.7% OTM over spot $370.05 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.71 mid)
= $2,640 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,900/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $380)
75%
Breach risk
25%
POP (stays ≤ $382.71)
81%
EV / mo
+$3,932
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 4.6 mo [2.8-6.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.7 mo)  ·  32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without)  ·  ~12.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $28,799
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
39%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,794
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$392 @ 79% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.68/sh now → $5.43 mid-life (likely $5.68–$8.66)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,167 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $383 (overshoots $2.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$38020 Jul 20267d left+$0.83/sh+$826
cycle +$3,466
[+$239…+$1,044] · 88% credit
67%
surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$38324 Jul 202611d left+$0.93/sh+$933
cycle +$3,573
[+$46…+$1,203] · 77% credit
70%
surv 57%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$38120 Jul 20267d left+$0.27/sh+$270
cycle +$2,910
[-$408…+$441] · 45% credit
68%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$38524 Jul 202611d left+$0.00/sh+$3
cycle +$2,643
[-$1,028…+$163] · 28% credit
72%
surv 62%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$39224 Jul 202611d left-$2.53/sh-$2,535
cycle +$105
[-$4,293…-$2,646]
79%
surv 75%
budget: banked $2,640 debit $2,535 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$105 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $7,905/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,900/mo
vs 50% target ($9,173/mo)+8%
vs normal income ($18,346/mo)54% covered
Net income (after hedge)$8,279/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $380 is $86 below CC-SS $466.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$83,447
… as % of IC ($136,000)61.4%
… as % of ML ($256,000)32.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)4.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-131,985
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.64 collected) or spot ≥ $382.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$376-382.71
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $382.71
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.37 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$380.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,640$-115,633+$16,281+$2,630
+2.5%$389.50 (1.3σ)$-6,860$-112,109+$19,806-$6,870
+5%$399.00 (2.0σ)$-16,360$-108,584+$23,330-$16,370
SS (= V-bounce)$456.00 (6.0σ)$-73,360$-87,437+$44,477-$72,370
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $466.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,915
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$131,667
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $380): -$83,447
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-83,695 (+$48,220 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,325 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,370, the opportunity cost of earning $9,900/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal10 × $37317 Jul8d0.8%58%85%$5,350$20,062+$10,162$87,737
Sell 10 × $373 0.8% OTM over spot $370.05 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $5.45 mid)
= $5,350 credit for the 8d cycle → $20,062/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $373)
58%
Breach risk
42%
POP (stays ≤ $378.45)
71%
EV / mo
+$5,437
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 4.8 mo [3.0-6.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.8 mo)  ·  39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without)  ·  ~27.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $43,258
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
68%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$199
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$394 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.28/sh now → $5.15 mid-life (likely $6.88–$9.70)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $5.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.20/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,050 simulated challenges: the $373 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $376 (overshoots $3.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$37524 Jul 202611d left+$1.30/sh+$1,301
cycle +$6,651
[+$102…+$756] · 79% credit
69%
surv 55%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$37320 Jul 20267d left+$0.78/sh+$783
cycle +$6,133
[-$67…+$397] · 70% credit
67%
surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$37420 Jul 20267d left+$0.23/sh+$229
cycle +$5,579
[-$747…-$201] · 16% credit
68%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$37724 Jul 202611d left+$0.28/sh+$284
cycle +$5,634
[-$1,140…-$347] · 15% credit
71%
surv 60%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$39424 Jul 202611d left-$4.18/sh-$4,183
cycle +$1,167
[-$7,480…-$5,447]
90%
surv 89%
budget: banked $5,350 debit $4,183 (78% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,167 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,641/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$20,062/mo
vs 50% target ($9,173/mo)+119%
vs normal income ($18,346/mo)109% covered
Net income (after hedge)$18,441/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $373 is $93 below CC-SS $466.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$87,737
… as % of IC ($136,000)64.5%
… as % of ML ($256,000)34.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)4.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-132,015
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.34/sh (~25% of the $5.35 collected) or spot ≥ $378.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $373)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $369.27Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$369-378.45
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $378.45
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.37 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$373.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,350$-122,520+$9,394+$5,340
+2.5%$382.32 (≤1σ, normal week)$-3,975$-119,060+$12,854-$3,985
+5%$391.65 (1.5σ)$-13,300$-115,601+$16,314-$13,310
SS (= V-bounce)$456.00 (6.0σ)$-77,650$-91,727+$40,187-$76,660
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $466.09, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,915
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$131,667
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $373): -$87,737
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-87,985 (+$43,930 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,325 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-76,660, the opportunity cost of earning $20,062/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLD are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (98 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 98 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.371 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$131,667 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,325

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$3784d13 Jul 2026$1.2910/10$9,675$8,05480%84%+$4,642-$86,79763.8%$-87,045 (vs do-nothing $-75,720)
$3806d15 Jul 2026$1.9110/10$9,550$7,92979%83%+$4,187-$84,17761.9%$-84,425 (vs do-nothing $-73,100)
$3774d13 Jul 2026$1.568/10$9,360$7,74477%82%+$4,240-$70,02251.5%$-72,485 (vs do-nothing $-61,160)
$3796d15 Jul 2026$2.159/10$9,675$8,05776%81%+$3,939-$76,44356.2%$-77,799 (vs do-nothing $-66,474)
$3808d17 Jul 2026$2.6410/10$9,900$8,27975%81%+$3,932-$83,44761.4%$-83,695 (vs do-nothing $-72,370)
$3764d13 Jul 2026$1.847/10$9,660$8,04774%80%+$4,019-$61,77345.4%$-65,344 (vs do-nothing $-54,019)
$3786d15 Jul 2026$2.458/10$9,800$8,18474%80%+$3,775-$68,51050.4%$-70,973 (vs do-nothing $-59,648)
$3798d17 Jul 2026$2.939/10$9,889$8,27073%79%+$3,702-$75,74155.7%$-77,097 (vs do-nothing $-65,772)
$3776d15 Jul 2026$2.787/10$9,730$8,11771%78%+$3,539-$60,41544.4%$-63,986 (vs do-nothing $-52,661)
$3788d17 Jul 2026$3.258/10$9,750$8,13471%78%+$3,443-$67,87049.9%$-70,333 (vs do-nothing $-59,008)
$3754d13 Jul 2026$2.176/10$9,765$8,15570%78%+$3,743-$53,35039.2%$-58,029 (vs do-nothing $-46,704)
$37811d20 Jul 2026$3.5510/10$9,682$8,06170%77%+$3,076-$84,53762.2%$-84,785 (vs do-nothing $-73,460)
$3778d17 Jul 2026$3.607/10$9,450$7,83768%76%+$3,149-$59,84144.0%$-63,412 (vs do-nothing $-52,087)
Show 85 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 85.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$3766d15 Jul 2026$3.156/10$9,450$7,84068%76%+$3,255-$52,16238.4%$-56,841 (vs do-nothing $-45,516)
$37813d22 Jul 2026$4.1510/10$9,577$7,95668%76%+$2,977-$83,93761.7%$-84,185 (vs do-nothing $-72,860)
$37711d20 Jul 2026$3.959/10$9,695$8,07767%76%+$2,979-$76,62356.3%$-77,979 (vs do-nothing $-66,654)
$37815d24 Jul 2026$4.8010/10$9,600$7,97967%75%+$2,909-$83,28761.2%$-83,535 (vs do-nothing $-72,210)
$3744d13 Jul 2026$2.545/10$9,525$7,91766%76%+$3,343-$44,77432.9%$-50,560 (vs do-nothing $-39,235)
$37713d22 Jul 2026$4.559/10$9,450$7,83266%75%+$2,827-$76,08355.9%$-77,439 (vs do-nothing $-66,114)
$3768d17 Jul 2026$4.007/10$10,500$8,88766%75%+$3,338-$60,26144.3%$-63,832 (vs do-nothing $-52,507)
$3756d15 Jul 2026$3.556/10$10,650$9,04065%75%+$3,462-$52,52238.6%$-57,201 (vs do-nothing $-45,876)
$37611d20 Jul 2026$4.358/10$9,491$7,87565%75%+$2,773-$68,59050.4%$-71,053 (vs do-nothing $-59,728)
$37715d24 Jul 2026$5.209/10$9,360$7,74265%74%+$2,729-$75,49855.5%$-76,854 (vs do-nothing $-65,529)
$37613d22 Jul 2026$5.008/10$9,231$7,61564%74%+$2,687-$68,07050.1%$-70,533 (vs do-nothing $-59,208)
$3758d17 Jul 2026$4.456/10$10,012$8,40263%74%+$3,067-$51,98238.2%$-56,661 (vs do-nothing $-45,336)
$37615d24 Jul 2026$5.609/10$10,080$8,46263%73%+$2,794-$76,03855.9%$-77,394 (vs do-nothing $-66,069)
$37511d20 Jul 2026$4.857/10$9,259$7,64663%73%+$2,671-$60,36644.4%$-63,937 (vs do-nothing $-52,612)
$3734d13 Jul 2026$2.975/10$11,138$9,53062%74%+$3,609-$45,05933.1%$-50,845 (vs do-nothing $-39,520)
$3746d15 Jul 2026$3.955/10$9,875$8,26762%73%+$2,968-$44,06932.4%$-49,855 (vs do-nothing $-38,530)
$37513d22 Jul 2026$5.458/10$10,062$8,44662%73%+$2,811-$68,51050.4%$-70,973 (vs do-nothing $-59,648)
$37515d24 Jul 2026$6.058/10$9,680$8,06461%72%+$2,582-$68,03050.0%$-70,493 (vs do-nothing $-59,168)
$3748d17 Jul 2026$4.856/10$10,912$9,30261%72%+$3,088-$52,34238.5%$-57,021 (vs do-nothing $-45,696)
$37411d20 Jul 2026$5.257/10$10,023$8,41060%72%+$2,668-$60,78644.7%$-64,357 (vs do-nothing $-53,032)
$37413d22 Jul 2026$5.907/10$9,531$7,91860%72%+$2,522-$60,33144.4%$-63,902 (vs do-nothing $-52,577)
$3736d15 Jul 2026$4.405/10$11,000$9,39260%72%+$3,083-$44,34432.6%$-50,130 (vs do-nothing $-38,805)
$37415d24 Jul 2026$6.458/10$10,320$8,70459%71%+$2,559-$68,51050.4%$-70,973 (vs do-nothing $-59,648)
$3724d13 Jul 2026$3.404/10$10,200$8,59558%72%+$2,948-$36,27526.7%$-43,169 (vs do-nothing $-31,844)
$3738d17 Jul 2026$5.355/10$10,031$8,42458%71%+$2,719-$43,86932.3%$-49,655 (vs do-nothing $-38,330)
$37311d20 Jul 2026$5.706/10$9,327$7,71758%71%+$2,316-$52,43238.6%$-57,111 (vs do-nothing $-45,786)
$37313d22 Jul 2026$6.357/10$10,258$8,64557%71%+$2,540-$60,71644.6%$-64,287 (vs do-nothing $-52,962)
$37315d24 Jul 2026$7.007/10$9,800$8,18757%70%+$2,393-$60,26144.3%$-63,832 (vs do-nothing $-52,507)
$3726d15 Jul 2026$4.904/10$9,800$8,19557%70%+$2,584-$35,67526.2%$-42,569 (vs do-nothing $-31,244)
$3728d17 Jul 2026$5.805/10$10,875$9,26756%71%+$3,386-$44,14432.5%$-49,930 (vs do-nothing $-38,605)
$37211d20 Jul 2026$6.256/10$10,227$8,61756%70%+$2,460-$52,70238.8%$-57,381 (vs do-nothing $-46,056)
$37213d22 Jul 2026$6.856/10$9,485$7,87455%70%+$2,222-$52,34238.5%$-57,021 (vs do-nothing $-45,696)
$37215d24 Jul 2026$7.507/10$10,500$8,88755%69%+$2,441-$60,61144.6%$-64,182 (vs do-nothing $-52,857)
$3714d13 Jul 2026$3.904/10$11,700$10,09554%70%+$3,064-$36,47526.8%$-43,369 (vs do-nothing $-32,044)
$3716d15 Jul 2026$5.404/10$10,800$9,19554%69%+$2,627-$35,87526.4%$-42,769 (vs do-nothing $-31,444)
$3718d17 Jul 2026$6.354/10$9,525$7,92053%70%+$2,864-$35,49526.1%$-42,389 (vs do-nothing $-31,064)
$37111d20 Jul 2026$6.706/10$10,964$9,35353%69%+$2,390-$53,03239.0%$-57,711 (vs do-nothing $-46,386)
$37113d22 Jul 2026$7.356/10$10,177$8,56753%69%+$2,228-$52,64238.7%$-57,321 (vs do-nothing $-45,996)
$37115d24 Jul 2026$8.006/10$9,600$7,99053%69%+$2,102-$52,25238.4%$-56,931 (vs do-nothing $-45,606)
$37015d24 Jul 2026$8.606/10$10,320$8,71051%68%+$2,202-$52,49238.6%$-57,171 (vs do-nothing $-45,846)
$37013d22 Jul 2026$8.005/10$9,231$7,62351%68%+$2,003-$44,04432.4%$-49,830 (vs do-nothing $-38,505)
$37011d20 Jul 2026$7.305/10$9,955$8,34751%68%+$2,097-$44,39432.6%$-50,180 (vs do-nothing $-38,855)
$3708d17 Jul 2026$6.904/10$10,350$8,74551%69%+$2,971-$35,67526.2%$-42,569 (vs do-nothing $-31,244)
$3706d15 Jul 2026$6.004/10$12,000$10,39551%68%+$2,796-$36,03526.5%$-42,929 (vs do-nothing $-31,604)
$3704d13 Jul 2026$4.453/10$10,012$8,41050%68%+$2,383-$27,49120.2%$-35,493 (vs do-nothing $-24,168)
$36915d24 Jul 2026$9.156/10$10,980$9,37049%67%+$2,211-$52,76238.8%$-57,441 (vs do-nothing $-46,116)
$36913d22 Jul 2026$8.505/10$9,808$8,20049%67%+$1,944-$44,29432.6%$-50,080 (vs do-nothing $-38,755)
$36911d20 Jul 2026$7.905/10$10,773$9,16548%67%+$2,163-$44,59432.8%$-50,380 (vs do-nothing $-39,055)
$3698d17 Jul 2026$7.454/10$11,175$9,57048%68%+$3,029-$35,85526.4%$-42,749 (vs do-nothing $-31,424)
$3696d15 Jul 2026$6.553/10$9,825$8,22348%67%+$2,093-$27,16120.0%$-35,163 (vs do-nothing $-23,838)
$36815d24 Jul 2026$9.755/10$9,750$8,14247%66%+$1,875-$44,16932.5%$-49,955 (vs do-nothing $-38,630)
$36813d22 Jul 2026$9.105/10$10,500$8,89247%66%+$1,970-$44,49432.7%$-50,280 (vs do-nothing $-38,955)
$3694d13 Jul 2026$5.053/10$11,362$9,76046%67%+$2,470-$27,61120.3%$-35,613 (vs do-nothing $-24,288)
$36811d20 Jul 2026$8.504/10$9,273$7,66846%66%+$1,752-$35,83526.3%$-42,729 (vs do-nothing $-31,404)
$3688d17 Jul 2026$8.054/10$12,075$10,47045%67%+$3,113-$36,01526.5%$-42,909 (vs do-nothing $-31,584)
$36715d24 Jul 2026$10.355/10$10,350$8,74245%65%+$1,883-$44,36932.6%$-50,155 (vs do-nothing $-38,830)
$3686d15 Jul 2026$7.153/10$10,725$9,12345%65%+$2,112-$27,28120.1%$-35,283 (vs do-nothing $-23,958)
$36713d22 Jul 2026$9.705/10$11,192$9,58545%65%+$1,965-$44,69432.9%$-50,480 (vs do-nothing $-39,155)
$36711d20 Jul 2026$9.104/10$9,927$8,32244%65%+$1,742-$35,99526.5%$-42,889 (vs do-nothing $-31,564)
$36615d24 Jul 2026$11.005/10$11,000$9,39243%65%+$1,918-$44,54432.8%$-50,330 (vs do-nothing $-39,005)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-09 00:04