FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN @ $39.20

BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $72.24 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | 2026-07-03 11:07

IREN @ $39.20 UNDERWATER $24.23 (38.2% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $72.24 | IV: HIGH

LC: $50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.797/sh)

SP: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.718/sh)

HP: $23 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.773/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$107,700	(ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000
Normal income ref	$15,215/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$1,590/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-59,479	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,607/mo

HEDGE COVER
$1,590/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$15,215/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $13,700

ML VELOCITY
7.1 mo to earn back $107,700

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $72 (probe: $70C 14d) brings only $343/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 28 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 30 · %B 3 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $47.44 (+21%) · daily UBB $65.87 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 20 contracts at $44 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,607/mo); it brings $7,714/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 19 × $40/7d for $15,471/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 17 × $50/7d (94% survival, $1,603/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $54,688 (399% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $63, recoverable in 3.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 20 contracts realizes $-59,579 and cuts bleed by $1,590/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 20 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). The Weekly/Monthly toggle recomputes the same rungs on the 30+ DTE subset of the already-fetched chain: weekly churns premium fastest, monthly buys strike height (fewer rolls, higher cap).

🎯 Engine pick: sell 20 × $44 (primary) — 79% survival, breach 21%, $7,714/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $46 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $2,666/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $46 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect IREN to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on IREN are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal · sell 20×$44, 12.2% OTM, 79% surv

Sell 20 × $44 12.2% OTM over spot $39.20 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.95 mid)

= $1,800 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,714/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $44)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $44.95)

83%

EV / mo

+$2,600

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3–4.3] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~10.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,073

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

33%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,663

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$61 @ 87% POP

86% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.15/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $2.41–$3.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 977 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $46 (overshoots $1.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.51/sh	+$3,011 cycle +$4,811 [+$2,577…+$3,439] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$56	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$2.56/sh	+$5,123 cycle +$6,923 [+$4,613…+$5,797] · 100% credit	84% surv 79%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$59	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$1.70/sh	+$3,394 cycle +$5,194 [+$2,451…+$3,713] · 100% credit	85% surv 81%
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$47	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.38/sh	+$767 cycle +$2,567 [+$10…+$868] · 75% credit	74% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$61	7 Aug 2026	32d left	-$0.74/sh	-$1,481 cycle +$319 [-$3,291…-$1,554] · 5% credit	87% surv 86%
budget: banked $1,800 debit $1,481 (82% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$319 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,796/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,714/mo
vs 50% target ($7,607/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($15,215/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,125/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $44 is $28 below CC-SS $72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$54,688
… as % of IC ($13,700)	399.2%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	50.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.6 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-59,579

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $44.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.56	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-44.95	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $44.95	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,800	$-49,039	+$10,440	+$1,700
+2.5%	$45.10 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-400	$-49,259	+$10,220	-$500
+5%	$46.20 (1.1σ)	$-2,600	$-49,479	+$10,000	-$2,700
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (3.7σ)	$-37,060	$-52,925	+$6,554	-$36,300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,479

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,479

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $44): -$54,688

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,688 (+$4,791 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,300, the opportunity cost of earning $7,714/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $47.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,080, position total $-49,727 (+$9,752 vs today)

33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 19×$46, 16.1% OTM, 85% surv

Sell 19 × $46 16.1% OTM over spot $39.20 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.69 mid)

= $1,178 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,049/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $46)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $46.19)

87%

EV / mo

+$1,958

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.7–4.8] median · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,954

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,275

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$61 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.31/sh now → $2.34 mid-life (likely $2.37–$3.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 684 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (19 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.58/sh	+$2,998 cycle +$4,176 [+$2,629…+$3,504] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$60	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$1.95/sh	+$3,714 cycle +$4,892 [+$2,996…+$4,312] · 100% credit	85% surv 81%
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$57	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$2.89/sh	+$5,484 cycle +$6,662 [+$5,257…+$6,213] · 100% credit	84% surv 78%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$48	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.45/sh	+$856 cycle +$2,034 [+$215…+$1,161] · 85% credit	74% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$61	7 Aug 2026	32d left	-$0.48/sh	-$907 cycle +$271 [-$2,409…-$682] · 13% credit	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $1,178 debit $907 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$271 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $3,324/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,049/mo
vs 50% target ($7,607/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($15,215/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,470/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $46 is $27 below CC-SS $72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$49,635
… as % of IC ($13,700)	362.3%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	46.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)	$-56,638

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $46.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-46.19	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.19	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,178	$-46,956	+$12,523	+$1,083
+2.5%	$46.64 (1.1σ)	$-983	$-47,070	+$12,409	-$1,078
+5%	$47.77 (1.3σ)	$-3,144	$-47,183	+$12,296	-$3,240
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (3.7σ)	$-32,889	$-48,792	+$10,687	-$32,167

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,479

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,479

− CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46): -$49,635

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$919

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,555 (+$8,924 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,167, the opportunity cost of earning $5,049/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $47.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,508, position total $-47,150 (+$12,329 vs today)

100% normal · sell 19×$40, 3.3% OTM, 61% surv

Sell 19 × $40 3.3% OTM over spot $39.20 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.05 mid)

= $3,610 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,471/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $40)

61%

Breach risk

39%

POP (stays ≤ $42.55)

72%

EV / mo

+$2,791

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3–4.1] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~25.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,227

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

64%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$150

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$59 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $2.80/sh now → $1.98 mid-life (likely $2.65–$3.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,924 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $42 (overshoots $1.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (19 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$52	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$1.86/sh	+$3,526 cycle +$7,136 [+$2,691…+$3,229] · 100% credit	85% surv 80%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$40	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.34/sh	+$2,550 cycle +$6,160 [+$1,965…+$2,342] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$55	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$1.14/sh	+$2,167 cycle +$5,777 [+$783…+$1,624] · 93% credit	86% surv 83%
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$43	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.23/sh	+$446 cycle +$4,056 [-$569…+$34] · 27% credit	75% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$59	7 Aug 2026	32d left	-$1.20/sh	-$2,273 cycle +$1,337 [-$4,976…-$3,286]	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $3,610 debit $2,273 (63% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,337 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,393/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,471/mo
vs 50% target ($7,607/mo)	+103%
vs normal income ($15,215/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$13,893/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $40 is $32 below CC-SS $72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$56,703
… as % of IC ($13,700)	413.9%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	52.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.7 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)	$-56,800

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.90 collected) or spot ≥ $42.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $40.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $40-42.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $42.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$40.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,610	$-53,524	+$5,955	+$3,515
+2.5%	$41.51 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,686	$-53,625	+$5,854	+$1,591
+5%	$42.52 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-237	$-53,726	+$5,753	-$332
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (3.7σ)	$-39,957	$-55,860	+$3,619	-$39,235

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,479

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,479

− CC assignment net of premium (19 × $40): -$56,703

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$919

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,623 (+$1,856 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,235, the opportunity cost of earning $15,471/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $47.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,576, position total $-54,218 (+$5,261 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 17×$50, 27.6% OTM, 94% surv

Sell 17 × $50 27.6% OTM over spot $39.20 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.24 mid)

= $374 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,603/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $50)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $50.24)

95%

EV / mo

+$923

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.3–3.9] median — 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,872

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,207

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$65 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.81/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $2.18–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 206 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (17 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.80/sh	+$3,066 cycle +$3,440 [+$2,956…+$4,171] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$65	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$2.79/sh	+$4,749 cycle +$5,123 [+$4,539…+$6,184] · 100% credit	83% surv 79%
reaches SS ✓
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$62	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$3.93/sh	+$6,688 cycle +$7,062 [+$6,994…+$8,236] · 100% credit	83% surv 76%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$54	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.13/sh	+$225 cycle +$599 [-$197…+$1,023] · 64% credit	75% surv 67%

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,603/mo
vs 50% target ($7,607/mo)	-79%
vs normal income ($15,215/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$45/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $50 is $22 below CC-SS $72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$37,440
… as % of IC ($13,700)	273.3%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	34.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (17 ct)	$-50,591

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $50.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-50.24	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $50.24	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$50.00 (1.6σ)	$374	$-39,650	+$19,829	+$289
+2.5%	$51.25 (1.8σ)	$-1,751	$-39,525	+$19,954	-$1,836
+5%	$52.50 (2.0σ)	$-3,876	$-39,400	+$20,079	-$3,961
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (3.7σ)	$-22,457	$-38,436	+$21,043	-$21,811

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,479

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,479

− CC assignment net of premium (17 × $50): -$37,440

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$2,758

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,199 (+$19,280 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,811, the opportunity cost of earning $1,603/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $47.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-44,632 (+$14,847 vs today)

🎯 Engine pick: sell 20 × $46 (primary) — 72% survival, breach 28%, $7,654/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $52 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 28% → 18%) for $2,511/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $52 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect IREN to stay flat-to-down near term.

🎯 50% normal · sell 20×$46, 17.3% OTM, 72% surv

Sell 20 × $46 17.3% OTM over spot $39.20 14 Aug 2026 (42d, $5.64 mid)

= $10,716 credit for the 42d cycle → $7,654/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $46)

72%

Breach risk

28%

POP (stays ≤ $51.64)

81%

EV / mo

+$3,245

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3–4.4] median — 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,285

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

33%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$6,253

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$61 @ 87% POP

86% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 42); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.15/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $2.41–$3.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$3.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 977 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 42, at $46 (overshoots $1.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.51/sh	+$3,011 cycle +$13,727 [+$2,577…+$3,439] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$56	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$2.56/sh	+$5,123 cycle +$15,839 [+$4,613…+$5,797] · 100% credit	84% surv 79%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$59	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$1.70/sh	+$3,394 cycle +$14,110 [+$2,451…+$3,713] · 100% credit	85% surv 81%
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$47	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.38/sh	+$767 cycle +$11,483 [+$10…+$868] · 75% credit	74% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$61	7 Aug 2026	32d left	-$0.74/sh	-$1,481 cycle +$9,235 [-$3,291…-$1,554] · 5% credit	87% surv 86%
budget: banked $10,716 debit $1,481 (14% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9,235 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,796/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,654/mo
vs 50% target ($7,607/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($15,215/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,065/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $46 is $26 below CC-SS $72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,772
… as % of IC ($13,700)	304.9%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	38.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.7 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-60,043

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.34/sh (~25% of the $5.36 collected) or spot ≥ $51.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 22d left	3-21d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.56	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-51.64	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $51.64	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,800	$-49,039	+$10,440	+$1,700
+2.5%	$45.10 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-400	$-49,259	+$10,220	-$500
+5%	$46.20 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,600	$-49,479	+$10,000	-$2,700
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (1.5σ)	$-37,060	$-52,925	+$6,554	-$36,300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,479

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,479

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$41,772

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,772 (+$17,707 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,384, the opportunity cost of earning $7,654/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $47.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-44,647 (+$14,832 vs today)

33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 20×$52, 32.7% OTM, 82% surv

Sell 20 × $52 32.7% OTM over spot $39.20 14 Aug 2026 (42d, $3.79 mid)

= $7,201 credit for the 42d cycle → $5,144/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $52)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $55.79)

86%

EV / mo

+$2,651

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4–4.4] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,293

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

41%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$12,424

Free roll-up

none

Buyback gross: $13.82/sh now → $9.81 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,144/mo
vs 50% target ($7,607/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($15,215/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,554/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $52 is $20 below CC-SS $72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,287
… as % of IC ($13,700)	243.0%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	30.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-59,858

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $55.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 22d left	3-21d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $51.48	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $51-55.79	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $55.79	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$52.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$7,201	$-29,238	+$30,241	+$7,101
+2.5%	$53.30 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,601	$-29,498	+$29,981	+$4,501
+5%	$54.60 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,001	$-29,758	+$29,721	+$1,901
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (1.5σ)	$-15,659	$-31,524	+$27,955	-$14,899

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,479

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,479

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$33,287

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,287 (+$26,192 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,899, the opportunity cost of earning $5,144/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $47.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-44,647 (+$14,832 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 19×$59, 50.5% OTM, 89% surv

Sell 19 × $59 50.5% OTM over spot $39.20 7 Aug 2026 (35d, $1.54 mid)

= $1,957 credit for the 35d cycle → $1,677/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $59)

89%

Breach risk

11%

POP (stays ≤ $60.53)

90%

EV / mo

+$181

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4–4.3] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,800

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$15,285

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$68 @ 82% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 17 of 35); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.78/sh now → $9.07 mid-life (likely $7.56–$11.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 547 simulated challenges: the $59 strike is typically first touched on day 21 of 35, at $61 (overshoots $2.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (19 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$59	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.52/sh	+$4,786 cycle +$6,743 [+$5,006…+$6,170] · 100% credit	75% surv 57%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$64	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.19/sh	+$360 cycle +$2,317 [+$313…+$872] · 100% credit	78% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$64	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.19/sh	+$360 cycle +$2,317 [+$313…+$872] · 100% credit	78% surv 65%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$68	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.88/sh	-$1,664 cycle +$293 [-$1,550…-$964] · 6% credit	82% surv 72%
budget: banked $1,957 debit $1,664 (85% used ≈ 4.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$293 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $19,472/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,677/mo
vs 50% target ($7,607/mo)	-78%
vs normal income ($15,215/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$99/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $59 is $13 below CC-SS $72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,206
… as % of IC ($13,700)	169.4%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	21.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)	$-57,465

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.03 collected) or spot ≥ $60.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $59)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 18d left	3-17d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $58.41	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $58-60.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $60.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$59.00 (1.4σ)	$1,957	$-21,877	+$37,602	+$1,862
+2.5%	$60.47 (1.5σ)	$-845	$-22,024	+$37,455	-$940
+5%	$61.95 (1.6σ)	$-3,648	$-22,172	+$37,307	-$3,743
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (1.7σ)	$-6,460	$-22,363	+$37,116	-$5,738

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.24, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,479

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,479

− CC assignment net of premium (19 × $59): -$23,206

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$919

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,126 (+$35,353 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,738, the opportunity cost of earning $1,677/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $47.44 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-44,642 (+$14,837 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$59,479 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-18,388

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$44	7d	10 Jul 2026	$0.90	20/20	$7,714	$6,125	79%	83%	+$2,600	-$54,688	399.2%	$-54,688 (vs do-nothing $-36,300)
$44	7d	10 Jul 2026	$1.00	18/20	$7,714	$6,146	77%	81%	+$2,386	-$49,939	364.5%	$-51,778 (vs do-nothing $-33,390)
$43	7d	10 Jul 2026	$1.12	16/20	$7,680	$6,133	75%	80%	+$2,212	-$44,998	328.5%	$-48,676 (vs do-nothing $-30,288)
$44	14d	17 Jul 2026	$1.91	19/20	$7,776	$6,198	73%	79%	+$1,884	-$50,034	365.2%	$-50,954 (vs do-nothing $-32,566)
$46	42d	14 Aug 2026	$5.36	20/20	$7,654	$6,065	72%	81%	+$3,245	-$41,772	304.9%	$-41,772 (vs do-nothing $-23,384)
$42	7d	10 Jul 2026	$1.25	15/20	$8,036	$6,500	72%	78%	+$2,135	-$42,741	312.0%	$-47,338 (vs do-nothing $-28,950)
$45	42d	14 Aug 2026	$5.73	19/20	$7,774	$6,195	71%	80%	+$3,221	-$40,879	298.4%	$-41,798 (vs do-nothing $-23,411)
$42	7d	10 Jul 2026	$1.40	13/20	$7,800	$6,285	70%	77%	+$1,932	-$37,497	273.7%	$-43,933 (vs do-nothing $-25,545)
$43	14d	17 Jul 2026	$2.09	17/20	$7,614	$6,056	70%	77%	+$1,339	-$46,161	336.9%	$-48,920 (vs do-nothing $-30,532)
$44	42d	14 Aug 2026	$6.11	18/20	$7,854	$6,286	69%	79%	+$3,125	-$39,844	290.8%	$-41,682 (vs do-nothing $-23,295)
$43	21d	24 Jul 2026	$2.80	20/20	$8,000	$6,410	68%	76%	+$1,281	-$52,888	386.0%	$-52,888 (vs do-nothing $-34,500)
$42	7d	10 Jul 2026	$1.46	13/20	$8,134	$6,620	67%	75%	+$1,425	-$38,069	277.9%	$-44,505 (vs do-nothing $-26,117)
$43	42d	14 Aug 2026	$6.51	17/20	$7,902	$6,344	67%	79%	+$3,060	-$38,652	282.1%	$-41,410 (vs do-nothing $-23,022)

Show 23 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$42	14d	17 Jul 2026	$2.55	14/20	$7,650	$6,125	66%	75%	+$1,529	-$38,771	283.0%	$-44,288 (vs do-nothing $-25,900)
$42	21d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	18/20	$7,971	$6,403	65%	74%	+$948	-$48,859	356.6%	$-50,698 (vs do-nothing $-32,310)
$42	42d	14 Aug 2026	$6.95	16/20	$7,947	$6,401	65%	78%	+$3,015	-$37,264	272.0%	$-40,941 (vs do-nothing $-22,554)
$41	7d	10 Jul 2026	$1.74	11/20	$8,203	$6,710	64%	74%	+$1,735	-$32,454	236.9%	$-40,729 (vs do-nothing $-22,341)
$41	42d	14 Aug 2026	$7.41	15/20	$7,939	$6,403	62%	77%	+$2,921	-$35,751	261.0%	$-40,348 (vs do-nothing $-21,960)
$41	14d	17 Jul 2026	$2.90	13/20	$8,079	$6,564	62%	73%	+$1,382	-$36,847	269.0%	$-43,283 (vs do-nothing $-24,895)
$41	28d	31 Jul 2026	$3.80	19/20	$7,736	$6,157	62%	73%	+$186	-$52,143	380.6%	$-53,063 (vs do-nothing $-34,675)
$41	21d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	16/20	$7,886	$6,339	62%	72%	+$805	-$44,470	324.6%	$-48,148 (vs do-nothing $-29,760)
$40	7d	10 Jul 2026	$1.90	10/20	$8,143	$6,660	61%	72%	+$1,469	-$29,844	217.8%	$-39,038 (vs do-nothing $-20,650)
$40	42d	14 Aug 2026	$7.87	14/20	$7,866	$6,341	60%	76%	+$2,842	-$34,129	249.1%	$-39,645 (vs do-nothing $-21,258)
$40	35d	7 Aug 2026	$5.05	18/20	$7,791	$6,223	60%	72%	+$698	-$48,949	357.3%	$-50,788 (vs do-nothing $-32,400)
$40	28d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	16/20	$8,057	$6,510	59%	72%	+$1,056	-$44,070	321.7%	$-47,748 (vs do-nothing $-29,360)
$40	21d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	15/20	$8,143	$6,607	59%	71%	+$637	-$42,666	311.4%	$-47,263 (vs do-nothing $-28,875)
$40	7d	10 Jul 2026	$2.07	9/20	$7,984	$6,513	58%	71%	+$1,194	-$27,156	198.2%	$-37,270 (vs do-nothing $-18,882)
$40	14d	17 Jul 2026	$3.30	11/20	$7,779	$6,285	58%	71%	+$1,142	-$31,838	232.4%	$-40,113 (vs do-nothing $-21,725)
$39	42d	14 Aug 2026	$8.41	13/20	$7,807	$6,292	57%	76%	+$2,810	-$32,287	235.7%	$-38,723 (vs do-nothing $-20,335)
$39	35d	7 Aug 2026	$4.50	20/20	$7,714	$6,125	57%	71%	$-965	-$57,488	419.6%	$-57,488 (vs do-nothing $-39,100)
$39	28d	31 Jul 2026	$4.80	15/20	$7,714	$6,178	56%	70%	+$455	-$42,666	311.4%	$-47,263 (vs do-nothing $-28,875)
$39	21d	24 Jul 2026	$3.95	14/20	$7,900	$6,375	55%	69%	+$3	-$41,011	299.4%	$-46,528 (vs do-nothing $-28,140)
$40	7d	10 Jul 2026	$2.31	8/20	$7,920	$6,459	55%	69%	+$1,122	-$24,347	177.7%	$-35,380 (vs do-nothing $-16,992)
$39	14d	17 Jul 2026	$3.75	10/20	$8,036	$6,553	54%	69%	+$1,011	-$29,494	215.3%	$-38,688 (vs do-nothing $-20,300)
$39	7d	10 Jul 2026	$2.54	7/20	$7,620	$6,170	52%	68%	+$949	-$21,493	156.9%	$-33,445 (vs do-nothing $-15,057)
$38	7d	10 Jul 2026	$2.76	7/20	$8,280	$6,830	49%	66%	+$828	-$21,689	158.3%	$-33,641 (vs do-nothing $-15,253)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-03 11:07