20 contracts (2,000 sh) | SS: $44.00 | IV: HIGH
| Contract | Expiry | Type | Status | Sigma | Survival | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $57 call | 5 Jun 2026 (35d) | CONS | SAFE | σ 1.54 | 94% | entry $5.77 |
| Max Loss | $56,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,433/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,961/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,727 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Every strike × expiry in the 5-14 DTE band (2 expiry / expiries in 5-14 DTE band). ★ = recommended pick. Contracts-to-match recomputed per row.
Fortress delta: 0.928 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Net Inc/mo | EV /mo | Survival | CC Assignment Cost @ SS | Do Nothing @ SS | Total Position P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 7d | 8 May 2026 | $2.75 | 0/20 | $15,253 | +$0 | 72% | -$0 | $-1,227 | $-1,227 (+$8,500 vs today) (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| ★ $46 | 14d | 15 May 2026 | $3.50 | 20/20 | $12,039 | +$11,013 | 66% | -$0 | $-1,227 | $-9,727 (+$0 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-8,500) |
| $46 | 7d | 8 May 2026 | $3.05 | 0/20 | $15,253 | +$0 | 62% | -$0 | $-1,227 | $-1,227 (+$8,500 vs today) (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $46 | 14d | 15 May 2026 | $3.85 | 20/20 | $13,539 | +$11,063 | 59% | -$0 | $-1,227 | $-9,727 (+$0 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-8,500) |
| $45 | 7d | 8 May 2026 | $3.30 | 0/20 | $15,253 | +$0 | 57% | -$0 | $-1,227 | $-1,227 (+$8,500 vs today) (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $45 | 14d | 15 May 2026 | $4.10 | 20/20 | $14,610 | +$11,277 | 55% | -$0 | $-1,227 | $-9,727 (+$0 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-8,500) |
* = target unreachable with 20 contracts. Rows sorted by survival (desc). Net Inc/mo = deterministic best case (assumes 100% survival). EV /mo = probability-weighted monthly edge: premium − E[buyback] scaled monthly. Uses realized vol = IV × 85% (variance risk premium = 15%). Do-nothing EV/mo on FIGHT leg is $0 by definition — positive here means this trade beats passive over many cycles. CC Assignment Cost @ SS = damage on short calls at SS. Do Nothing @ SS = absolute P&L if you keep all 20 at conservative CC, no FIGHT. Total Position P&L @ SS = absolute P&L of this trade at SS. "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost on a V-bounce.
| Max Loss (ML) | Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike. |
| Normal income ref | Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%) |
| Hedge rolling cost | Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares |
| FIGHT CC | Short-dated, near-ATM covered call for income recovery |
| Conservative CC | Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater) |
| Cover hedge | Min FIGHT contracts to pay for the hedge rolling cost |
| Match normal | FIGHT contracts needed to reach normal income target |
| Gap/ct | Net gap risk per contract: (SS - strike - bid) x 100. Max loss if stock rallies to SS, net of premium received. |
| Gap@Hedge | Total gap risk at cover-hedge contract count |
| Gap@Match | Total gap risk at match-normal contract count |
| Net@Match | Monthly income after hedge cost at match-normal level |