250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $13.74 | IV: HIGH
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $58,636/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $10,841/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-15,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 250 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 163 × $13.50 | 85% | $29,340 | $15,321 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 229 × $13.50 | 75% | $29,354 | $9,160 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 185 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.0% | 93% | 15% | $2,590 | $19,425 | -$9,915 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 185 × $14 13.0% OTM over spot $12.39 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $2,590 credit for the 4d cycle → $19,425/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 94% EV / mo +$16,620 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 85% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,738 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,669 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 185 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 285 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $14 is at/above CC-SS $13.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,338 − CC assignment net of premium (185 × $14): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (65 × $24): +$65 Total Position P&L @ SS: $15,153 (+$30,403 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $15,338 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-185, the opportunity cost of earning $19,425/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,930, position total $31,310 (+$46,560 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 250 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.0% | 93% | 15% | $3,500 | $26,250 | -$3,090 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $14 13.0% OTM over spot $12.39 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $3,500 credit for the 4d cycle → $26,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 94% EV / mo +$22,459 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,500 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,714 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 250 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $14 is at/above CC-SS $13.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,338 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $14): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $15,088 (+$30,338 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $15,338 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-250, the opportunity cost of earning $26,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$44,500, position total $19,675 (+$34,925 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 163 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.0% | 85% | 20% | $3,912 | $29,340 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 163 × $13.50 9.0% OTM over spot $12.39 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.25 mid) = $3,912 credit for the 4d cycle → $29,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 90% EV / mo +$22,527 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 89% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,666 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,434 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 163 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.59–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 600 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $13.50 is at/above CC-SS $13.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,338 − CC assignment net of premium (163 × $13.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (87 × $24): +$87 Total Position P&L @ SS: $15,175 (+$30,425 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $15,338 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-163, the opportunity cost of earning $29,340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,534, position total $28,728 (+$43,978 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 201 × $13 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.9% | 73% | 56% | $7,839 | $58,792 | +$29,453 | $7,002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 201 × $13 4.9% OTM over spot $12.39 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $7,839 credit for the 4d cycle → $58,792/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $13.40) 83% EV / mo +$37,715 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.4] median · 98% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 87% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,117 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,998 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 201 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,169 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $1 below CC-SS $13.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $13.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,338 − CC assignment net of premium (201 × $13): -$7,002 + Conservative CC premium (49 × $24): +$49 Total Position P&L @ SS: $8,135 (+$23,385 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $15,338 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,203, the opportunity cost of earning $58,792/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,853, position total $13,371 (+$28,621 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 250 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 21.1% | 91% | 19% | $4,250 | $11,591 | -$17,763 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $15 21.1% OTM over spot $12.39 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $4,250 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,591/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $15.19) 92% EV / mo +$8,001 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $0 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,565 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 78% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.29/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 370 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $15 is at/above CC-SS $13.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,338 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $15): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $15,088 (+$30,338 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $15,338 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-250, the opportunity cost of earning $11,591/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,750, position total $45,425 (+$60,675 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 215 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.0% | 82% | 38% | $7,095 | $19,350 | -$10,004 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 215 × $14 13.0% OTM over spot $12.39 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $7,095 credit for the 11d cycle → $19,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.35) 86% EV / mo +$11,005 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,098 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,434 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 215 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 935 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $14 is at/above CC-SS $13.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $14.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,338 − CC assignment net of premium (215 × $14): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (35 × $24): +$35 Total Position P&L @ SS: $15,123 (+$30,373 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $15,338 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-215, the opportunity cost of earning $19,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,185, position total $30,025 (+$45,275 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 229 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 9.0% | 75% | 42% | $10,763 | $29,354 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 229 × $13.50 9.0% OTM over spot $12.39 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.49 mid) = $10,763 credit for the 11d cycle → $29,354/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $13.99) 82% EV / mo +$14,906 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 87% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,776 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,839 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 229 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,262 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $13.50 is at/above CC-SS $13.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $13.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,338 − CC assignment net of premium (229 × $13.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (21 × $24): +$21 Total Position P&L @ SS: $15,109 (+$30,359 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $15,338 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-229, the opportunity cost of earning $29,354/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$44,655, position total $19,541 (+$34,791 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 250 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.9% | 55% | 95% | $21,500 | $58,636 | +$29,283 | $9,459 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $12.50 0.9% OTM over spot $12.39 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.87 mid) = $21,500 credit for the 11d cycle → $58,636/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $13.37) 72% EV / mo +$20,492 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.2 mo) · 98% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,500 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$4,521 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.96–$1.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,356 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $1 below CC-SS $13.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $13.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,338 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $12.50): -$9,459 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,629 (+$20,879 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $15,338 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,709, the opportunity cost of earning $58,636/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$64,000, position total $175 (+$15,425 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$30,338 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $15,338
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 163/250 | $29,340 | $29,577 | 85% | 90% | +$22,527 | -$0 | 0.0% | $15,202 (vs do-nothing $-136) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 229/250 | $29,354 | $29,411 | 75% | 82% | +$14,906 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,414 (vs do-nothing +$5,076) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 101/250 | $29,542 | $29,949 | 73% | 83% | +$18,951 | -$3,518 | 10.1% | $11,718 (vs do-nothing $-3,619) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 171/250 | $29,381 | $29,596 | 66% | 77% | +$12,295 | -$1,853 | 5.3% | $13,314 (vs do-nothing $-2,024) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 207/250 | $29,325 | $29,442 | 64% | 76% | +$9,942 | -$0 | 0.0% | $17,442 (vs do-nothing +$2,104) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 65/250 | $29,738 | $30,242 | 56% | 76% | +$14,775 | -$4,084 | 11.7% | $11,189 (vs do-nothing $-4,149) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 156/250 | $29,380 | $29,636 | 56% | 72% | +$9,435 | -$1,690 | 4.8% | $13,492 (vs do-nothing $-1,846) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 125/250 | $29,318 | $29,659 | 55% | 72% | +$10,246 | -$4,729 | 13.5% | $10,483 (vs do-nothing $-4,854) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.