FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

3 tickers, 85 contracts | Normal income ref: $28,759/mo | 2026-06-29 22:41

MSTR @ $86.76 UNDERWATER $74.24 (46.1% below SS)

4 contracts (400 sh) | SS: $161.00 | IV: HIGH

HP strike estimated at $47.72 (no --legs, check IBKR connection)

Economics

Normal income ref	$6,382/mo
Hedge rolling cost	$408/mo

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,191/mo

HEDGE COVER
$408/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,382/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at SS $161 brings only $295/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below SS is warranted.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B 5 (live) · RSI 29 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 27 · %B 12 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $138.34 (+59%) · daily UBB $145.46 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK — safest strike covering 50% of normal

Sell 4 × $94 10 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.05 bid / $3.33 mid)

Survival (stays ≤ $94)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $97.33)

75%

EV / mo

+$772

Gross FIGHT income	$3,327/mo
vs 50% target ($3,191/mo)	+4%
vs normal target ($6,382/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,919/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$25,580
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($0)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.0 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-110
… cuts bleed by	-$408/mo

✓ Highest-survival strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns $3,191/mo (max of the hedge cost and 50% of normal income), sized across your 4 contracts. IV 97% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~32% · flat exit -$711 net · free roll-up ≈ +$5/wk

Challenge odds

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$711

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$117 @ 86%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.76/sh (~25% of the $3.05 collected) or spot ≥ $97.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $145.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $93.06	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $93-97.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $97.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$94.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,220	$3,826	+$3,826	+$1,112
+2.5%	$96.35 (≤1σ, normal week)	$280	$3,732	+$3,732	+$172
+5%	$98.70 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-660	$3,638	+$3,638	-$768
SS (= V-bounce)	$161.00 (5.2σ)	$-25,580	$1,146	+$1,146	-$8,088

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.83/sh now → $4.83 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$94	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.87/sh	+$749 cycle +$1,969	65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.00/sh	+$2 cycle +$1,222	71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$107	7 Aug 2026	34d left	+$0.14/sh	+$58 cycle +$1,278	74%
SS $161 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$117	24 Jul 2026	20d left	-$3.05/sh	-$1,219 cycle +$1	86%
budget: banked $1,220 debit $1,219 (100% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,068/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-FIGHT

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($94) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 75% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 0 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 4 calls lose.

📊 Income ladder — how much safety each dollar costs

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your contracts. Safest at the top. Going down the ladder buys income by selling a lower, more-often-breached strike. 🎯 is the primary (safest strike covering 50% of normal income). Cap @ SS is the recovery you mortgage only on a full V-bounce to SS.

Income rung	Trade	BB zone	Expiry	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC
cover hedge	4 × $114 / 11d	LBB-MBB	10 Jul 2026	94%	6%	$447	$39	-$18,636	0%
🎯 50% normal	4 × $94 / 11d	LBB-MBB	10 Jul 2026	68%	32%	$3,327	$2,919	-$25,580	0%
100% normal	4 × $87 / 11d	LBB-MBB	10 Jul 2026	51%	49%	$6,382	$5,974	-$27,260	0%

⚔ Face-off if challenged · 🛡 SAFEST vs 🎯 PRIMARY vs 💰 RICHEST

	🛡 SAFEST	🎯 PRIMARY	💰 RICHEST
Trade	4 × $114 / 11d	4 × $94 / 11d	4 × $87 / 11d
POP this week (from today)	94%	75%	66%
Challenge means spot ≥	$114 (+31.4%)	$94 (+8.3%)	$87 (+0.3%)
Odds of that challenge	~6%	~32%	~49%
Premium banked	$164	$1,220	$2,340
Flat exit net (mid-life)	-$2,177	-$711	+$553
Free roll-up speed	+$5/wk	+$5/wk	+$5/wk
Safest escape if challenged	$127 @ 71% 7 Aug 2026 · 34d left at challenge	$117 @ 86% 24 Jul 2026 · 20d left at challenge	$107 @ 90% 17 Jul 2026 · 12d left at challenge
Cycle cash floor (worst door)	-$2,177	-$711	+$553
Cap give-up if held to SS	-$18,636 (0.0% IC)	-$25,580 (0.0% IC)	-$27,260 (0.0% IC)

Same playbook engine run on each anchor. Higher strikes need a bigger rally before they are even threatened, and by then the fortress has gained more on the way up; the price is the cap give-up row if the rally keeps going. Cycle cash floor = banked premium plus the worst door in that anchor's roll menu (flat exit or safety roll), the most the whole challenged cycle can cost in cash. Estimates from today's chain, mid-life timing.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 4 contracts at $94 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 68%, breach 32%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,191/mo); it brings $3,327/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 4 × $87/11d for $6,382/mo, but breach risk rises to 49% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $114/11d (94% survival, $447/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $25,580 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $161, recoverable in 4.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 4 contracts realizes $-110 and cuts bleed by $408/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $161.00 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $0

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,726

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $94): -$25,580

Total Position P&L @ SS: $1,146 (+$1,146 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,234 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,088, the opportunity cost of earning $3,327/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.34 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,516, position total $2,053 (+$2,053 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$26,726 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $9,234

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.05	4/4	$3,327	$2,919	68%	75%	+$772	-$25,580	0.0%	$1,146 (vs do-nothing $-8,088)
$94	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.25	4/4	$3,545	$3,137	67%	74%	+$838	-$25,700	0.0%	$1,026 (vs do-nothing $-8,208)
$93	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.40	4/4	$3,709	$3,301	66%	74%	+$841	-$25,840	0.0%	$886 (vs do-nothing $-8,348)
$92	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.55	4/4	$3,873	$3,465	65%	73%	+$837	-$25,980	0.0%	$746 (vs do-nothing $-8,488)
$92	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.70	4/4	$4,036	$3,628	63%	72%	+$825	-$26,120	0.0%	$606 (vs do-nothing $-8,628)
$92	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.90	3/4	$3,191	$2,857	62%	72%	+$644	-$19,680	0.0%	$2,673 (vs do-nothing $-6,561)
$92	18d	17 Jul 2026	$4.90	4/4	$3,267	$2,859	62%	71%	+$569	-$25,440	0.0%	$1,286 (vs do-nothing $-7,948)
$91	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.10	3/4	$3,355	$3,020	61%	71%	+$664	-$19,770	0.0%	$2,583 (vs do-nothing $-6,651)
$92	18d	17 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/4	$3,400	$2,992	61%	70%	+$585	-$25,560	0.0%	$1,166 (vs do-nothing $-8,068)
$92	18d	17 Jul 2026	$5.35	4/4	$3,567	$3,159	60%	70%	+$630	-$25,660	0.0%	$1,066 (vs do-nothing $-8,168)
$91	18d	17 Jul 2026	$5.55	4/4	$3,700	$3,292	59%	69%	+$638	-$25,780	0.0%	$946 (vs do-nothing $-8,288)
$90	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.50	3/4	$3,682	$3,347	58%	70%	+$684	-$19,950	0.0%	$2,403 (vs do-nothing $-6,831)
$91	25d	24 Jul 2026	$6.70	4/4	$3,216	$2,808	58%	69%	+$588	-$25,320	0.0%	$1,406 (vs do-nothing $-7,828)

Show 15 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$90	18d	17 Jul 2026	$5.95	4/4	$3,967	$3,559	57%	68%	+$642	-$26,020	0.0%	$706 (vs do-nothing $-8,528)
$89	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.90	3/4	$4,009	$3,675	56%	68%	+$677	-$20,130	0.0%	$2,223 (vs do-nothing $-7,011)
$90	25d	24 Jul 2026	$7.15	4/4	$3,432	$3,024	56%	68%	+$607	-$25,540	0.0%	$1,186 (vs do-nothing $-8,048)
$89	18d	17 Jul 2026	$6.35	4/4	$4,233	$3,825	55%	67%	+$628	-$26,260	0.0%	$466 (vs do-nothing $-8,768)
$89	25d	24 Jul 2026	$7.60	4/4	$3,648	$3,240	54%	67%	+$616	-$25,760	0.0%	$966 (vs do-nothing $-8,268)
$88	11d	10 Jul 2026	$5.40	3/4	$4,418	$4,084	53%	67%	+$725	-$20,280	0.0%	$2,073 (vs do-nothing $-7,161)
$88	18d	17 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/4	$3,400	$3,066	53%	66%	+$474	-$19,860	0.0%	$2,493 (vs do-nothing $-6,741)
$88	25d	24 Jul 2026	$7.95	4/4	$3,816	$3,408	52%	66%	+$565	-$26,020	0.0%	$706 (vs do-nothing $-8,528)
$87	11d	10 Jul 2026	$5.85	2/4	$3,191	$2,930	51%	66%	+$470	-$13,630	0.0%	$4,350 (vs do-nothing $-4,884)
$87	18d	17 Jul 2026	$7.30	3/4	$3,650	$3,316	51%	65%	+$488	-$20,010	0.0%	$2,343 (vs do-nothing $-6,891)
$87	25d	24 Jul 2026	$8.35	4/4	$4,008	$3,600	50%	65%	+$527	-$26,260	0.0%	$466 (vs do-nothing $-8,768)
$86	32d	31 Jul 2026	$8.65	4/4	$3,244	$2,836	49%	64%	+$9	-$26,540	0.0%	$186 (vs do-nothing $-9,048)
$86	25d	24 Jul 2026	$8.95	3/4	$3,222	$2,888	49%	65%	+$431	-$19,815	0.0%	$2,538 (vs do-nothing $-6,696)
$86	18d	17 Jul 2026	$7.80	3/4	$3,900	$3,566	48%	64%	+$490	-$20,160	0.0%	$2,193 (vs do-nothing $-7,041)
$86	11d	10 Jul 2026	$6.35	2/4	$3,464	$3,203	48%	65%	+$465	-$13,730	0.0%	$4,250 (vs do-nothing $-4,984)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 4 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

RKLB @ $92.15 UNDERWATER $49.40 (34.9% below SS)

6 contracts (600 sh) | SS: $141.55 | IV: HIGH

HP strike estimated at $59.90 (no --legs, check IBKR connection)

Economics

Normal income ref	$9,082/mo
Hedge rolling cost	$734/mo

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,541/mo

HEDGE COVER
$734/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$9,082/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at SS $142 brings only $49/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below SS is warranted.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 53 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 25 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $137.73 (+49%) · daily UBB $126.77 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK — safest strike covering 50% of normal

Sell 6 × $100 10 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.86 bid / $2.98 mid)

Survival (stays ≤ $100)

70%

Breach risk

30%

POP (stays ≤ $102.98)

76%

EV / mo

+$1,351

Gross FIGHT income	$4,680/mo
vs 50% target ($4,541/mo)	+3%
vs normal target ($9,082/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,946/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$23,214
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($0)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-72
… cuts bleed by	-$734/mo

✓ Highest-survival strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns $4,541/mo (max of the hedge cost and 50% of normal income), sized across your 6 contracts. IV 89% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~30% · flat exit -$1,185 net · free roll-up ≈ +$4/wk

Challenge odds

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,185

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$123 @ 85%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.86 collected) or spot ≥ $102.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $126.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $99-102.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $102.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$100.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,716	$5,955	+$5,955	+$1,698
+2.5%	$102.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$216	$5,805	+$5,805	+$198
+5%	$105.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,284	$5,655	+$5,655	-$1,302
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (3.5σ)	$-23,214	$3,462	+$3,462	-$12,702

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.84/sh now → $4.83 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.04/sh	+$626 cycle +$2,342	64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$104	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.18/sh	+$111 cycle +$1,827	70%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$113	7 Aug 2026	34d left	+$0.70/sh	+$418 cycle +$2,134	73%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$123	24 Jul 2026	20d left	-$2.85/sh	-$1,710 cycle +$6	85%
budget: banked $1,716 debit $1,710 (100% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,786/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-FIGHT

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($100) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 76% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 0 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 6 calls lose.

📊 Income ladder — how much safety each dollar costs

Income rung	Trade	BB zone	Expiry	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC
cover hedge	6 × $117 / 11d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	93%	7%	$736	$3	-$14,460	0%
🎯 50% normal	6 × $100 / 11d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	70%	30%	$4,680	$3,946	-$23,214	0%
100% normal	6 × $92 / 11d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	50%	50%	$9,327	$8,594	-$26,310	0%

⚔ Face-off if challenged · 🛡 SAFEST vs 🎯 PRIMARY vs 💰 RICHEST

	🛡 SAFEST	🎯 PRIMARY	💰 RICHEST
Trade	6 × $117 / 11d	6 × $100 / 11d	6 × $92 / 11d
POP this week (from today)	93%	76%	66%
Challenge means spot ≥	$117 (+27.0%)	$100 (+8.5%)	$92 (+-0.2%)
Odds of that challenge	~7%	~30%	~50%
Premium banked	$270	$1,716	$3,420
Flat exit net (mid-life)	-$3,124	-$1,185	+$751
Free roll-up speed	+$4/wk	+$4/wk	+$4/wk
Safest escape if challenged	$127 @ 72% 24 Jul 2026 · 20d left at challenge	$123 @ 85% 24 Jul 2026 · 20d left at challenge	$113 @ 91% 17 Jul 2026 · 12d left at challenge
Cycle cash floor (worst door)	-$3,124	-$1,185	+$751
Cap give-up if held to SS	-$14,460 (0.0% IC)	-$23,214 (0.0% IC)	-$26,310 (0.0% IC)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 6 contracts at $100 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 70%, breach 30%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,541/mo); it brings $4,680/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 6 × $92/11d for $9,327/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+21pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 6 × $117/11d (93% survival, $736/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $23,214 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $142, recoverable in 2.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 6 contracts realizes $-72 and cuts bleed by $734/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $141.55 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $0

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,676

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $100): -$23,214

Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,462 (+$3,462 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $16,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,702, the opportunity cost of earning $4,680/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $137.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,922, position total $3,691 (+$3,691 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$26,676 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $16,164

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$100	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.86	6/6	$4,680	$3,946	70%	76%	+$1,351	-$23,214	0.0%	$3,462 (vs do-nothing $-12,702)
$99	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.00	6/6	$4,909	$4,176	68%	75%	+$1,169	-$23,730	0.0%	$2,946 (vs do-nothing $-13,218)
$98	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.30	6/6	$5,400	$4,666	66%	74%	+$1,206	-$24,150	0.0%	$2,526 (vs do-nothing $-13,638)
$97	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.60	5/6	$4,909	$4,184	63%	72%	+$998	-$20,475	0.0%	$4,449 (vs do-nothing $-11,715)
$98	18d	17 Jul 2026	$4.80	6/6	$4,800	$4,066	62%	71%	+$944	-$23,250	0.0%	$3,426 (vs do-nothing $-12,738)
$96	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.00	5/6	$5,455	$4,729	61%	71%	+$1,087	-$20,775	0.0%	$4,149 (vs do-nothing $-12,015)
$97	18d	17 Jul 2026	$5.15	6/6	$5,150	$4,416	60%	70%	+$956	-$23,640	0.0%	$3,036 (vs do-nothing $-13,128)
$96	18d	17 Jul 2026	$5.55	5/6	$4,625	$3,900	58%	69%	+$828	-$20,000	0.0%	$4,924 (vs do-nothing $-11,240)
$95	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.35	4/6	$4,745	$4,028	58%	69%	+$853	-$16,880	0.0%	$6,292 (vs do-nothing $-9,872)
$96	25d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	6/6	$4,752	$4,018	57%	69%	+$779	-$23,370	0.0%	$3,306 (vs do-nothing $-12,858)
$95	18d	17 Jul 2026	$5.95	5/6	$4,958	$4,233	56%	68%	+$839	-$20,300	0.0%	$4,624 (vs do-nothing $-11,540)
$95	25d	24 Jul 2026	$7.00	6/6	$5,040	$4,306	55%	68%	+$789	-$23,730	0.0%	$2,946 (vs do-nothing $-13,218)
$94	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.80	4/6	$5,236	$4,519	55%	68%	+$866	-$17,100	0.0%	$6,072 (vs do-nothing $-10,092)

Show 13 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94	18d	17 Jul 2026	$6.50	5/6	$5,417	$4,691	54%	67%	+$954	-$20,525	0.0%	$4,399 (vs do-nothing $-11,765)
$94	25d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	6/6	$5,256	$4,522	53%	67%	+$711	-$24,150	0.0%	$2,526 (vs do-nothing $-13,638)
$93	11d	10 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/6	$5,673	$4,956	52%	67%	+$876	-$17,340	0.0%	$5,832 (vs do-nothing $-10,332)
$93	25d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	5/6	$4,620	$3,895	52%	66%	+$575	-$20,425	0.0%	$4,499 (vs do-nothing $-11,665)
$93	32d	31 Jul 2026	$8.35	6/6	$4,697	$3,963	51%	65%	+$185	-$24,120	0.0%	$2,556 (vs do-nothing $-13,608)
$92	39d	7 Aug 2026	$10.15	6/6	$4,685	$3,951	50%	65%	+$337	-$23,640	0.0%	$3,036 (vs do-nothing $-13,128)
$92	32d	31 Jul 2026	$8.65	6/6	$4,866	$4,132	50%	64%	+$100	-$24,540	0.0%	$2,136 (vs do-nothing $-14,028)
$92	25d	24 Jul 2026	$8.25	5/6	$4,950	$4,225	50%	65%	+$633	-$20,650	0.0%	$4,274 (vs do-nothing $-11,890)
$92	11d	10 Jul 2026	$5.70	3/6	$4,664	$3,955	50%	66%	+$685	-$13,155	0.0%	$8,265 (vs do-nothing $-7,899)
$91	39d	7 Aug 2026	$10.30	6/6	$4,754	$4,020	48%	64%	+$193	-$24,150	0.0%	$2,526 (vs do-nothing $-13,638)
$91	32d	31 Jul 2026	$8.90	6/6	$5,006	$4,273	48%	64%	$-24	-$24,990	0.0%	$1,686 (vs do-nothing $-14,478)
$91	25d	24 Jul 2026	$8.65	5/6	$5,190	$4,465	48%	64%	+$587	-$20,950	0.0%	$3,974 (vs do-nothing $-12,190)
$91	11d	10 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/6	$5,073	$4,364	47%	64%	+$685	-$13,305	0.0%	$8,115 (vs do-nothing $-8,049)

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

BMNR @ $13.31 UNDERWATER $3.82 (22.3% below SS)

75 contracts (7,500 sh) | SS: $17.13 | IV: HIGH

LC: $23 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.149/sh)

SP: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.818/sh)

HP: $45 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $26.191/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$46,875	(ND $6.25 + SW $0) x 7500
Normal income ref	$13,295/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$3,274/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-336,227	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,648/mo

HEDGE COVER
$3,274/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,295/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $46,875

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $46,875

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at SS $17 brings only $818/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below SS is warranted.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B -3 (live) · RSI 35 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 30 · %B 8 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $19.05 (+43%) · daily UBB $18.53 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-03: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK — safest strike covering 50% of normal

Sell 55 × $14 10 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.45 bid / $0.49 mid)

Survival (stays ≤ $14)

64%

Breach risk

36%

POP (stays ≤ $14.49)

73%

EV / mo

+$1,555

Gross FIGHT income	$6,750/mo
vs 50% target ($6,648/mo)	+2%
vs normal target ($13,295/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,694/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$14,740
… as % of IC ($46,875)	31.4%
… as % of ML ($46,875)	31.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (55 ct)	$-246,787
… cuts bleed by	-$2,401/mo

✓ Highest-survival strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns $6,648/mo (max of the hedge cost and 50% of normal income), sized across your 75 contracts. IV 79% (strike).

⚠ ELEVATED BREACH RISK: even the safest strike that clears the floor is breached 36% of the time (survival 64% < 65%). Premium is thin relative to the move; consider a smaller size, a lower income target (climb the ladder), or waiting for IV.

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~36% · flat exit -$511 net · free roll-up ≈ +$1/wk

Challenge odds

36%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$511

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$17 @ 92%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $14.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $18.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $13.86	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $14-14.49	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $14.49	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.36 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$14.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,475	$-331,794	+$4,434	+$2,255
+2.5%	$14.35 (≤1σ, normal week)	$550	$-332,766	+$3,461	+$330
+5%	$14.70 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,375	$-333,738	+$2,489	-$1,595
SS (= V-bounce)	$17.13 (2.0σ)	$-14,740	$-340,747	-$4,520	-$14,245

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 55 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (55 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$14	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.25/sh	+$1,353 cycle +$3,828	64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$15	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.07/sh	+$388 cycle +$2,863	72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$16	31 Jul 2026	26d left	+$0.08/sh	+$436 cycle +$2,911	76%
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$17	17 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.42/sh	-$2,311 cycle +$164	92%
budget: banked $2,475 debit $2,311 (93% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$164 cash · rolled 55 ct earn ≈ $1,687/mo while parked; 20 ct free to re-FIGHT · clears SS ✓

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($14) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 73% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 20 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 55 calls lose. Re-arm capacity: a challenge enriches the 20 free contracts; near-ATM FIGHT premium at the challenged spot ≈ $197/ct/mo (up to $3,944/mo), at the price of fresh cap give-up on a continued rally. Re-run the tool to re-size.

📊 Income ladder — how much safety each dollar costs

Income rung	Trade	BB zone	Expiry	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC
cover hedge	61 × $15 / 11d	LBB-MBB	10 Jul 2026 ⚠E	81%	19%	$3,327	$206	-$11,773	25%
🎯 50% normal	55 × $14 / 11d	LBB-MBB	10 Jul 2026 ⚠E	64%	36%	$6,750	$3,694	-$14,740	31%
100% normal	75 × $14 / 11d	<LBB	10 Jul 2026 ⚠E	54%	46%	$13,295	$10,022	-$22,350	48%

⚔ Face-off if challenged · 🛡 SAFEST vs 🎯 PRIMARY vs 💰 RICHEST

	🛡 SAFEST	🎯 PRIMARY	💰 RICHEST
Trade	61 × $15 / 11d	55 × $14 / 11d	75 × $14 / 11d
POP this week (from today)	84%	73%	68%
Challenge means spot ≥	$15 (+12.7%)	$14 (+5.2%)	$14 (+1.4%)
Odds of that challenge	~19%	~36%	~46%
Premium banked	$1,220	$2,475	$4,875
Flat exit net (mid-life)	-$2,329	-$511	+$948
Free roll-up speed	+$1/wk	+$1/wk	+$1/wk
Safest escape if challenged	$18 @ 81% 31 Jul 2026 · 26d left at challenge	$17 @ 92% 17 Jul 2026 · 12d left at challenge	$17 @ 90% 24 Jul 2026 · 20d left at challenge
Cycle cash floor (worst door)	-$2,329	-$511	+$948
Cap give-up if held to SS	-$11,773 (25.1% IC)	-$14,740 (31.4% IC)	-$22,350 (47.7% IC)

🎚 Scale up — contracts dial at $14 10 Jul 2026 · up to 75 ct = $9,205/mo income, -$20,100 cap · POP flat at 73%

POP stays 73% at every row; contract count never buys POP. Income, EV and cap give-up scale linearly.

Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC	EV/mo
55/75	$6,750	$3,694	-$14,740	31.4%	+$1,555
59/75	$7,241	$4,142	-$15,812	33.7%	+$1,669
63/75	$7,732	$4,589	-$16,884	36.0%	+$1,782
67/75	$8,223	$5,036	-$17,956	38.3%	+$1,895
71/75	$8,714	$5,484	-$19,028	40.6%	+$2,008
75/75	$9,205	$5,931	-$20,100	42.9%	+$2,121

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 55 contracts at $14 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 64%, breach 36%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($6,648/mo); it brings $6,750/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 75 × $14/11d for $13,295/mo, but breach risk rises to 46% (+10pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 61 × $15/11d (81% survival, $3,327/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $14,740 (31% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $17, recoverable in 1.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 55 contracts realizes $-246,787 and cuts bleed by $2,401/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $17.13 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-336,227

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,400

− CC assignment net of premium (55 × $14): -$14,740

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17): -$180

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-340,747 ($-4,520 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-326,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,245, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.363 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,400 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-326,502

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$14	11d	10 Jul 2026	$0.45	55/75	$6,750	$3,694	64%	73%	+$1,555	-$14,740	31.4%	$-340,747 (vs do-nothing $-14,245)
$14	18d	17 Jul 2026	$0.70	57/75	$6,650	$3,573	61%	71%	+$1,479	-$13,851	29.5%	$-339,840 (vs do-nothing $-13,338)
$14	25d	24 Jul 2026	$0.86	65/75	$6,708	$3,543	59%	70%	+$1,351	-$14,755	31.5%	$-340,672 (vs do-nothing $-14,170)
$14	11d	10 Jul 2026	$0.65	38/75	$6,736	$3,866	54%	68%	+$1,182	-$11,324	24.2%	$-337,484 (vs do-nothing $-10,982)
$14	18d	17 Jul 2026	$0.90	45/75	$6,750	$3,804	53%	67%	+$1,184	-$12,285	26.2%	$-338,382 (vs do-nothing $-11,880)
$14	25d	24 Jul 2026	$1.06	53/75	$6,742	$3,708	53%	67%	+$1,121	-$13,621	29.1%	$-339,646 (vs do-nothing $-13,144)
$14	32d	31 Jul 2026	$1.01	71/75	$6,723	$3,493	52%	67%	+$38	-$18,602	39.7%	$-344,465 (vs do-nothing $-17,963)
$14	39d	7 Aug 2026	$1.17	74/75	$6,660	$3,397	52%	67%	$-10	-$18,204	38.8%	$-344,040 (vs do-nothing $-17,538)

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v5.0 | 2026-06-29 22:41