FORTRESS FIGHT: MU @ $976.63

BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1183.81 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-03 10:56

MU @ $976.63 UNDERWATER $243.37 (19.9% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $1220.00 | CC-SS: $1183.81 | IV: HIGH

LC: $880 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $530.281/sh)

SP: $1010 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $385.075/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $3.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$470,000	(ND $250.00 + SW $690) x 500
Normal income ref	$85,714/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$916/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-93,231	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$42,857/mo

HEDGE COVER
$916/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$85,714/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $125,000

ML VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $470,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1184 (probe: $1180C 14d) still earns $22,500/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 81 (live) · RSI 69 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 33 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $1,184.60 (+21%) · daily UBB $1,236.91 · 1-wk expected move ±$140 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $1095 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($42,857/mo); it brings $43,929/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 4 × $1052/7d for $91,656/mo, but breach risk rises to 28% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $1255/7d (96% survival, $1,671/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $34,155 (27% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $1220, recoverable in 0.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-93,606 and cuts bleed by $916/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). The Weekly/Monthly toggle recomputes the same rungs on the 30+ DTE subset of the already-fetched chain: weekly churns premium fastest, monthly buys strike height (fewer rolls, higher cap).

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1095 (primary) — 81% survival, breach 19%, $43,929/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $1130 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 19% → 14%) for $14,679/mo less (33% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MU are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$1095, 12.1% OTM, 81% surv

Sell 5 × $1095 12.1% OTM over spot $976.63 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $21.25 mid)

= $10,250 credit for the 7d cycle → $43,929/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1095)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $1116.25)

84%

EV / mo

+$18,490

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3–2.0] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $30,436

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$14,425

Free roll-up

+$58/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,368 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $69.76/sh now → $49.35 mid-life (likely $52.00–$81.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $20.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$28.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 968 simulated challenges: the $1,095 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,130 (overshoots $34.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,163	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$80.65/sh	+$40,323 cycle +$50,573 [+$36,238…+$43,789] · 100% credit	76% surv 64%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,095	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$26.52/sh	+$13,259 cycle +$23,509 [+$10,032…+$15,455] · 100% credit	69% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,153	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.00/sh	+$500 cycle +$10,750 [-$5,097…+$919] · 31% credit	74% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,318	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$0.91/sh	+$453 cycle +$10,703 [-$9,088…+$526] · 27% credit	82% surv 79%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,368	31 Jul 2026	24d left	-$19.31/sh	-$9,656 cycle +$594 [-$20,830…-$10,238] · 2% credit	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $10,250 debit $9,656 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$594 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $18,774/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$43,929/mo
vs 50% target ($42,857/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($85,714/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$43,013/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1095 is $89 below CC-SS $1184: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$34,155
… as % of IC ($125,000)	27.3%
… as % of ML ($470,000)	7.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-93,606

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.12/sh (~25% of the $20.50 collected) or spot ≥ $1,116.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,095)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,084.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,084-1,116.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,116.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,095.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$10,250	$-29,715	+$63,516	+$2,375
+2.5%	$1,122.38 (1.0σ)	$-3,438	$-31,083	+$62,148	-$11,312
+5%	$1,149.75 (1.2σ)	$-17,125	$-32,452	+$60,779	-$25,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.7σ)	$-52,250	$-35,965	+$57,267	-$60,125

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1183.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,231

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,231

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1095): -$34,155

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,155 (+$59,076 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,030, the opportunity cost of earning $43,929/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,550, position total $-34,195 (+$59,036 vs today)

33% normal · sell 5×$1130, 15.7% OTM, 86% surv

Sell 5 × $1130 15.7% OTM over spot $976.63 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $14.48 mid)

= $6,825 credit for the 7d cycle → $29,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1130)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $1144.47)

88%

EV / mo

+$13,632

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3–2.1] median — 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $28,759

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$18,639

Free roll-up

+$58/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$1,403 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $71.99/sh now → $50.93 mid-life (likely $48.63–$81.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 671 simulated challenges: the $1,130 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $1,167 (overshoots $36.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,130	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$26.25/sh	+$13,126 cycle +$19,951 [+$10,559…+$16,328] · 100% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,198	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$81.63/sh	+$40,817 cycle +$47,642 [+$37,308…+$45,277] · 100% credit	76% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,188	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.61/sh	+$304 cycle +$7,129 [-$4,753…+$2,196] · 37% credit	74% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,353	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$0.80/sh	+$398 cycle +$7,223 [-$8,413…+$2,594] · 34% credit	82% surv 78%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,403	7 Aug 2026	32d left	-$9.48/sh	-$4,740 cycle +$2,085 [-$14,606…-$2,967] · 17% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $6,825 debit $4,740 (69% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,085 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $19,428/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$29,250/mo
vs 50% target ($42,857/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($85,714/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$28,334/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1130 is $54 below CC-SS $1184: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,080
… as % of IC ($125,000)	16.1%
… as % of ML ($470,000)	4.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-93,644

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.41/sh (~25% of the $13.65 collected) or spot ≥ $1,144.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,118.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,119-1,144.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,144.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,130.00 (1.1σ)	$6,825	$-17,390	+$75,842	-$1,050
+2.5%	$1,158.25 (1.3σ)	$-7,300	$-18,802	+$74,429	-$15,175
+5%	$1,186.50 (1.5σ)	$-21,425	$-20,215	+$73,016	-$29,300
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.7σ)	$-38,175	$-21,890	+$71,342	-$46,050

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1183.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,231

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,231

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1130): -$20,080

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,080 (+$73,151 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,955, the opportunity cost of earning $29,250/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,475, position total $-20,120 (+$73,112 vs today)

100% normal · sell 4×$1052, 7.8% OTM, 72% surv

Sell 4 × $1052 7.8% OTM over spot $976.63 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $56.28 mid)

= $21,386 credit for the 7d cycle → $91,656/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1052)

72%

Breach risk

28%

POP (stays ≤ $1108.78)

83%

EV / mo

+$56,177

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3–1.8] median — 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $60,943

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

47%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$2,413

Free roll-up

+$58/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$1,276 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $67.05/sh now → $47.43 mid-life (likely $57.01–$82.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $53.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$6.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,410 simulated challenges: the $1,052 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $1,087 (overshoots $34.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,052	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$26.75/sh	+$10,699 cycle +$32,085 [+$7,812…+$10,789] · 100% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,121	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$79.24/sh	+$31,697 cycle +$53,083 [+$27,665…+$32,129] · 100% credit	76% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,111	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.39/sh	+$556 cycle +$21,943 [-$4,387…-$596] · 20% credit	75% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,276	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$0.93/sh	+$370 cycle +$21,757 [-$8,148…-$1,680] · 16% credit	83% surv 79%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,276	17 Jul 2026	10d left	-$34.05/sh	-$13,621 cycle +$7,766 [-$23,628…-$16,365]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $21,386 debit $13,621 (64% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7,766 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $16,059/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$91,656/mo
vs 50% target ($42,857/mo)	+114%
vs normal income ($85,714/mo)	107% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$94,115/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1052 is $131 below CC-SS $1184: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,138
… as % of IC ($125,000)	24.9%
… as % of ML ($470,000)	6.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-75,710

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $13.37/sh (~25% of the $53.47 collected) or spot ≥ $1,108.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,052)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,041.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,042-1,108.78	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,108.78	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,052.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$21,386	$-36,128	+$57,103	+$15,086
+2.5%	$1,078.81 (≤1σ, normal week)	$10,861	$-34,812	+$58,419	+$4,561
+5%	$1,105.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$336	$-33,497	+$59,734	-$5,964
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (1.7σ)	$-45,614	$-27,753	+$65,478	-$51,914

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1183.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,231

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,231

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $1052): -$31,138

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $1220): +$1,575

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,563 (+$63,668 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,438, the opportunity cost of earning $91,656/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,454, position total $-29,523 (+$63,708 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 1×$1255, 28.5% OTM, 96% surv

Sell 1 × $1255 28.5% OTM over spot $976.63 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.20 mid)

= $390 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,671/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1255)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $1259.20)

96%

EV / mo

+$1,138

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4–1.8] median · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,701

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,266

Free roll-up

+$53/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$1,468 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $79.95/sh now → $56.56 mid-life (likely $43.45–$74.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$52.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 153 simulated challenges: the $1,255 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $1,292 (overshoots $36.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,255	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$24.74/sh	+$2,474 cycle +$2,864 [+$2,601…+$3,914] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,323	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$43.54/sh	+$4,354 cycle +$4,744 [+$4,109…+$6,068] · 100% credit	73% surv 63%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,308	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.97/sh	+$97 cycle +$487 [-$215…+$1,266] · 67% credit	73% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,468	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$1.52/sh	+$152 cycle +$542 [-$564…+$1,530] · 58% credit	81% surv 77%

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,671/mo
vs 50% target ($42,857/mo)	-96%
vs normal income ($85,714/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,256/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1255 is at/above CC-SS $1184: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($125,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($470,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,676

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,259.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,242.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,242-1,259.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,259.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,255.00 (2.0σ)	$390	$24,725	+$117,957	+$2,315
+2.5%	$1,286.38 (2.2σ)	$-2,748	$23,157	+$116,388	+$2,315
+5%	$1,317.75 (2.4σ)	$-5,885	$21,588	+$114,819	+$2,315

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1183.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,231

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,231

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1255): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1220): +$6,300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,300 (+$99,531 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,575, the opportunity cost of earning $1,671/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $6,655 (+$99,886 vs today)

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $1060 (primary) — 66% survival, breach 34%, $43,283/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $1125 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 73% (breach 34% → 27%) for $14,611/mo less (34% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

🎯 50% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$1060, 8.5% OTM, 66% surv

Sell 5 × $1060 8.5% OTM over spot $976.63 14 Aug 2026 (42d, $127.57 mid)

= $60,596 credit for the 42d cycle → $43,283/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1060)

66%

Breach risk

34%

POP (stays ≤ $1187.57)

77%

EV / mo

+$15,095

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1–1.1] median — 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $60,260

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$35,921

Free roll-up

+$58/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$1,368 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 42); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $69.76/sh now → $49.35 mid-life (likely $52.00–$81.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $121.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$71.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 968 simulated challenges: the $1,095 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 42, at $1,130 (overshoots $34.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,163	14 Aug 2026	38d left	+$80.65/sh	+$40,323 cycle +$100,919 [+$36,238…+$43,789] · 100% credit	76% surv 64%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,095	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$26.52/sh	+$13,259 cycle +$73,855 [+$10,032…+$15,455] · 100% credit	69% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,153	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.00/sh	+$500 cycle +$61,096 [-$5,097…+$919] · 31% credit	74% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,318	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$0.91/sh	+$453 cycle +$61,049 [-$9,088…+$526] · 27% credit	82% surv 79%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,368	31 Jul 2026	24d left	-$19.31/sh	-$9,656 cycle +$50,940 [-$20,830…-$10,238] · 2% credit	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $60,596 debit $9,656 (16% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50,940 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $18,774/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$43,283/mo
vs 50% target ($42,857/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($85,714/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$42,367/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $1060 is $124 below CC-SS $1184: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,309
… as % of IC ($125,000)	1.0%
… as % of ML ($470,000)	0.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-96,420

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $30.30/sh (~25% of the $121.19 collected) or spot ≥ $1,187.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,060)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 22d left	3-21d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,084.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,084-1,187.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,187.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,095.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$10,250	$-29,715	+$63,516	+$2,375
+2.5%	$1,122.38 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-3,438	$-31,083	+$62,148	-$11,312
+5%	$1,149.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-17,125	$-32,452	+$60,779	-$25,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-52,250	$-35,965	+$57,267	-$60,125

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1183.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,231

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,231

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1060): -$1,309

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,309 (+$91,922 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,184, the opportunity cost of earning $43,283/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,704, position total $-1,349 (+$91,882 vs today)

33% normal · sell 5×$1125, 15.2% OTM, 73% surv

Sell 5 × $1125 15.2% OTM over spot $976.63 7 Aug 2026 (35d, $70.40 mid)

= $33,450 credit for the 35d cycle → $28,671/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1125)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $1195.40)

79%

EV / mo

+$6,658

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3–1.5] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $33,297

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

54%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$18,074

Free roll-up

+$53/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,263 @ 80% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 17 of 35); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $145.44/sh now → $103.05 mid-life (likely $118.37–$154.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $66.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$36.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,606 simulated challenges: the $1,125 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 35, at $1,160 (overshoots $35.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,125	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$27.86/sh	+$13,929 cycle +$47,379 [+$13,254…+$14,792] · 100% credit	72% surv 55%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,173	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$4.22/sh	+$2,109 cycle +$35,559 [+$671…+$1,607] · 94% credit	75% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,178	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.85/sh	+$927 cycle +$34,377 [-$686…+$331] · 42% credit	75% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,178	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.85/sh	+$927 cycle +$34,377 [-$686…+$331] · 42% credit	75% surv 62%
SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,263	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$30.50/sh	-$15,251 cycle +$18,199 [-$19,824…-$16,587] · 0% credit	80% surv 73%
budget: banked $33,450 debit $15,251 (46% used ≈ 2.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$18,199 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $45,341/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$28,671/mo
vs 50% target ($42,857/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($85,714/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$27,756/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1125 is at/above CC-SS $1184: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($125,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($470,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-94,981

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $16.73/sh (~25% of the $66.90 collected) or spot ≥ $1,195.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 18d left	3-17d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,113.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,114-1,195.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,195.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,125.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$33,450	$6,985	+$100,217	+$25,575
+2.5%	$1,153.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$19,388	$5,579	+$98,810	+$11,513
+5%	$1,181.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,325	$4,173	+$97,404	-$2,550
SS (= V-bounce)	$1,220.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-14,050	$2,235	+$95,467	-$21,925

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1183.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,231

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,231

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $1125): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$93,231 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,875, the opportunity cost of earning $28,671/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $355 (+$93,586 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 1×$1250, 28.0% OTM, 83% surv

Sell 1 × $1250 28.0% OTM over spot $976.63 7 Aug 2026 (35d, $42.38 mid)

= $4,010 credit for the 35d cycle → $3,437/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $1250)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $1292.38)

85%

EV / mo

+$1,082

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4–2.4] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,597

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,440

Free roll-up

+$43/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$1,388 @ 79% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 17 of 35); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $161.60/sh now → $114.50 mid-life (likely $110.78–$158.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $40.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$74.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 943 simulated challenges: the $1,250 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 35, at $1,290 (overshoots $39.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,250	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$23.11/sh	+$2,311 cycle +$6,321 [+$2,112…+$2,862] · 100% credit	72% surv 55%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,288	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$4.01/sh	+$401 cycle +$4,411 [+$66…+$692] · 86% credit	74% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,293	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.60/sh	+$160 cycle +$4,170 [-$200…+$414] · 49% credit	74% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,293	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.60/sh	+$160 cycle +$4,170 [-$200…+$414] · 49% credit	74% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,388	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$36.29/sh	-$3,629 cycle +$381 [-$4,643…-$3,741]	79% surv 72%
budget: banked $4,010 debit $3,629 (90% used ≈ 4.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$381 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $9,776/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,437/mo
vs 50% target ($42,857/mo)	-92%
vs normal income ($85,714/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$16,022/mo

Downside budget

✓ $1250 is at/above CC-SS $1184: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($125,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($470,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,874

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $10.03/sh (~25% of the $40.10 collected) or spot ≥ $1,292.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $1,250)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $1,236.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 18d left	3-17d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,237.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,238-1,292.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,292.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,250.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,010	$28,095	+$121,327	+$5,435
+2.5%	$1,281.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$885	$26,533	+$119,764	+$5,435
+5%	$1,312.50 (1.1σ)	$-2,240	$24,970	+$118,202	+$5,435

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $1183.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-93,231

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$93,231

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $1250): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $1220): +$6,300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,300 (+$99,531 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,575, the opportunity cost of earning $3,437/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $1,184.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $6,655 (+$99,886 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 127 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$93,231 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $7,875

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1095	7d	10 Jul 2026	$20.50	5/5	$43,929	$43,013	81%	84%	+$18,490	-$34,155	27.3%	$-34,155 (vs do-nothing $-42,030)
$1090	7d	10 Jul 2026	$21.05	5/5	$45,107	$44,192	80%	83%	+$17,885	-$36,380	29.1%	$-36,380 (vs do-nothing $-44,255)
$1085	7d	10 Jul 2026	$22.15	5/5	$47,464	$46,549	79%	83%	+$18,350	-$38,330	30.7%	$-38,330 (vs do-nothing $-46,205)
$1080	7d	10 Jul 2026	$23.85	5/5	$51,107	$50,192	78%	82%	+$19,989	-$39,980	32.0%	$-39,980 (vs do-nothing $-47,855)
$1075	7d	10 Jul 2026	$24.40	5/5	$52,286	$51,370	77%	82%	+$19,046	-$42,205	33.8%	$-42,205 (vs do-nothing $-50,080)
$1070	7d	10 Jul 2026	$25.85	4/5	$44,314	$46,774	76%	81%	+$15,929	-$35,184	28.1%	$-33,609 (vs do-nothing $-41,484)
$1065	7d	10 Jul 2026	$27.15	4/5	$46,543	$49,002	75%	80%	+$16,263	-$36,664	29.3%	$-35,089 (vs do-nothing $-42,964)
$1060	7d	10 Jul 2026	$28.70	4/5	$49,200	$51,659	74%	80%	+$16,922	-$38,044	30.4%	$-36,469 (vs do-nothing $-44,344)
$1085	14d	17 Jul 2026	$40.75	5/5	$43,661	$42,745	73%	79%	+$12,359	-$29,030	23.2%	$-29,030 (vs do-nothing $-36,905)
$1055	7d	10 Jul 2026	$29.50	4/5	$50,571	$53,031	73%	79%	+$16,187	-$39,724	31.8%	$-38,149 (vs do-nothing $-46,024)
$1080	14d	17 Jul 2026	$42.20	5/5	$45,214	$44,299	73%	79%	+$12,590	-$30,805	24.6%	$-30,805 (vs do-nothing $-38,680)
$1052	7d	10 Jul 2026	$53.47	2/5	$45,828	$55,037	72%	83%	+$28,089	-$15,569	12.5%	$-10,844 (vs do-nothing $-18,719)
$1075	14d	17 Jul 2026	$43.70	5/5	$46,821	$45,906	72%	78%	+$12,829	-$32,555	26.0%	$-32,555 (vs do-nothing $-40,430)

Show 114 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 114.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$1050	7d	10 Jul 2026	$31.40	4/5	$53,829	$56,288	72%	78%	+$17,227	-$40,964	32.8%	$-39,389 (vs do-nothing $-47,264)
$1048	7d	10 Jul 2026	$55.66	2/5	$47,709	$56,918	71%	82%	+$28,832	-$16,130	12.9%	$-11,405 (vs do-nothing $-19,280)
$1070	14d	17 Jul 2026	$45.45	5/5	$48,696	$47,781	71%	78%	+$13,289	-$34,180	27.3%	$-34,180 (vs do-nothing $-42,055)
$1045	7d	10 Jul 2026	$31.65	4/5	$54,257	$56,717	71%	78%	+$15,322	-$42,864	34.3%	$-41,289 (vs do-nothing $-49,164)
$1065	14d	17 Jul 2026	$46.90	5/5	$50,250	$49,334	70%	77%	+$13,380	-$35,955	28.8%	$-35,955 (vs do-nothing $-43,830)
$1042	7d	10 Jul 2026	$57.86	2/5	$49,598	$58,808	70%	82%	+$29,525	-$16,689	13.4%	$-11,964 (vs do-nothing $-19,839)
$1040	7d	10 Jul 2026	$34.05	3/5	$43,779	$49,613	69%	77%	+$12,739	-$32,928	26.3%	$-29,778 (vs do-nothing $-37,653)
$1060	14d	17 Jul 2026	$48.50	5/5	$51,964	$51,049	69%	77%	+$13,582	-$37,655	30.1%	$-37,655 (vs do-nothing $-45,530)
$1038	7d	10 Jul 2026	$60.07	2/5	$51,487	$60,697	69%	82%	+$30,158	-$17,248	13.8%	$-12,523 (vs do-nothing $-20,398)
$1055	14d	17 Jul 2026	$49.85	5/5	$53,411	$52,495	69%	76%	+$13,466	-$39,480	31.6%	$-39,480 (vs do-nothing $-47,355)
$1065	21d	24 Jul 2026	$61.10	5/5	$43,643	$42,727	68%	76%	+$9,444	-$28,855	23.1%	$-28,855 (vs do-nothing $-36,730)
$1035	7d	10 Jul 2026	$35.70	3/5	$45,900	$51,734	68%	76%	+$12,930	-$33,933	27.1%	$-30,783 (vs do-nothing $-38,658)
$1050	14d	17 Jul 2026	$51.30	4/5	$43,971	$46,431	68%	76%	+$10,725	-$33,004	26.4%	$-31,429 (vs do-nothing $-39,304)
$1060	21d	24 Jul 2026	$62.25	5/5	$44,464	$43,549	68%	76%	+$9,136	-$30,780	24.6%	$-30,780 (vs do-nothing $-38,655)
$1032	7d	10 Jul 2026	$62.28	2/5	$53,385	$62,594	68%	81%	+$30,738	-$17,806	14.2%	$-13,081 (vs do-nothing $-20,956)
$1030	7d	10 Jul 2026	$37.40	3/5	$48,086	$53,920	67%	76%	+$13,092	-$34,923	27.9%	$-31,773 (vs do-nothing $-39,648)
$1055	21d	24 Jul 2026	$64.25	5/5	$45,893	$44,977	67%	75%	+$9,404	-$32,280	25.8%	$-32,280 (vs do-nothing $-40,155)
$1045	14d	17 Jul 2026	$53.20	4/5	$45,600	$48,059	67%	75%	+$11,021	-$34,244	27.4%	$-32,669 (vs do-nothing $-40,544)
$1028	7d	10 Jul 2026	$38.20	3/5	$49,114	$54,949	66%	75%	+$13,072	-$35,433	28.3%	$-32,283 (vs do-nothing $-40,158)
$1050	21d	24 Jul 2026	$65.95	5/5	$47,107	$46,192	66%	75%	+$9,426	-$33,930	27.1%	$-33,930 (vs do-nothing $-41,805)
$1040	14d	17 Jul 2026	$54.70	4/5	$46,886	$49,345	66%	75%	+$10,932	-$35,644	28.5%	$-34,069 (vs do-nothing $-41,944)
$1060	42d	14 Aug 2026	$121.19	5/5	$43,283	$42,367	66%	77%	+$15,095	-$1,309	1.0%	$-1,309 (vs do-nothing $-9,184)
$1025	7d	10 Jul 2026	$39.80	3/5	$51,171	$57,006	66%	75%	+$14,057	-$35,703	28.6%	$-32,553 (vs do-nothing $-40,428)
$1045	21d	24 Jul 2026	$67.75	5/5	$48,393	$47,477	65%	75%	+$9,489	-$35,530	28.4%	$-35,530 (vs do-nothing $-43,405)
$1055	42d	14 Aug 2026	$123.13	5/5	$43,975	$43,059	65%	77%	+$15,163	-$2,840	2.3%	$-2,840 (vs do-nothing $-10,715)
$1022	7d	10 Jul 2026	$40.70	3/5	$52,329	$58,163	65%	75%	+$14,117	-$36,183	28.9%	$-33,033 (vs do-nothing $-40,908)
$1035	14d	17 Jul 2026	$56.40	4/5	$48,343	$50,802	65%	74%	+$10,513	-$36,964	29.6%	$-35,389 (vs do-nothing $-43,264)
$1050	42d	14 Aug 2026	$125.08	5/5	$44,670	$43,755	65%	77%	+$15,222	-$4,367	3.5%	$-4,367 (vs do-nothing $-12,242)
$1045	28d	31 Jul 2026	$80.05	5/5	$42,884	$41,968	65%	74%	+$7,646	-$29,380	23.5%	$-29,380 (vs do-nothing $-37,255)
$1040	21d	24 Jul 2026	$69.55	5/5	$49,679	$48,763	65%	74%	+$9,519	-$37,130	29.7%	$-37,130 (vs do-nothing $-45,005)
$1020	7d	10 Jul 2026	$40.95	3/5	$52,650	$58,484	64%	74%	+$13,316	-$36,858	29.5%	$-33,708 (vs do-nothing $-41,583)
$1045	42d	14 Aug 2026	$127.02	5/5	$45,366	$44,450	64%	77%	+$15,272	-$5,893	4.7%	$-5,893 (vs do-nothing $-13,768)
$1040	28d	31 Jul 2026	$84.80	5/5	$45,429	$44,513	64%	74%	+$9,233	-$29,505	23.6%	$-29,505 (vs do-nothing $-37,380)
$1030	14d	17 Jul 2026	$58.65	4/5	$50,271	$52,731	64%	74%	+$10,926	-$38,064	30.5%	$-36,489 (vs do-nothing $-44,364)
$1035	21d	24 Jul 2026	$71.15	5/5	$50,821	$49,906	64%	74%	+$9,374	-$38,830	31.1%	$-38,830 (vs do-nothing $-46,705)
$1040	42d	14 Aug 2026	$128.98	5/5	$46,065	$45,149	64%	76%	+$15,315	-$7,414	5.9%	$-7,414 (vs do-nothing $-15,289)
$1018	7d	10 Jul 2026	$41.75	3/5	$53,679	$59,513	64%	74%	+$13,198	-$37,368	29.9%	$-34,218 (vs do-nothing $-42,093)
$1035	28d	31 Jul 2026	$84.20	5/5	$45,107	$44,192	64%	74%	+$7,932	-$32,305	25.8%	$-32,305 (vs do-nothing $-40,180)
$1035	42d	14 Aug 2026	$130.93	5/5	$46,760	$45,845	63%	76%	+$15,347	-$8,941	7.2%	$-8,941 (vs do-nothing $-16,816)
$1030	21d	24 Jul 2026	$73.45	5/5	$52,464	$51,549	63%	74%	+$9,696	-$40,180	32.1%	$-40,180 (vs do-nothing $-48,055)
$1015	7d	10 Jul 2026	$43.05	3/5	$55,350	$61,184	63%	74%	+$13,697	-$37,728	30.2%	$-34,578 (vs do-nothing $-42,453)
$1030	28d	31 Jul 2026	$86.50	5/5	$46,339	$45,424	63%	73%	+$8,163	-$33,655	26.9%	$-33,655 (vs do-nothing $-41,530)
$1030	42d	14 Aug 2026	$133.04	5/5	$47,514	$46,598	63%	76%	+$15,429	-$10,386	8.3%	$-10,386 (vs do-nothing $-18,261)
$1012	7d	10 Jul 2026	$43.80	3/5	$56,314	$62,149	63%	73%	+$13,463	-$38,253	30.6%	$-35,103 (vs do-nothing $-42,978)
$1025	21d	24 Jul 2026	$76.60	4/5	$43,771	$46,231	63%	73%	+$8,473	-$32,884	26.3%	$-31,309 (vs do-nothing $-39,184)
$1025	28d	31 Jul 2026	$87.70	5/5	$46,982	$46,067	62%	73%	+$7,782	-$35,555	28.4%	$-35,555 (vs do-nothing $-43,430)
$1025	42d	14 Aug 2026	$135.38	5/5	$48,348	$47,433	62%	76%	+$15,584	-$11,718	9.4%	$-11,718 (vs do-nothing $-19,593)
$1010	7d	10 Jul 2026	$45.40	3/5	$58,371	$64,206	62%	73%	+$14,296	-$38,523	30.8%	$-35,373 (vs do-nothing $-43,248)
$1020	21d	24 Jul 2026	$77.35	4/5	$44,200	$46,659	62%	73%	+$7,792	-$34,584	27.7%	$-33,009 (vs do-nothing $-40,884)
$1020	42d	14 Aug 2026	$137.70	5/5	$49,179	$48,264	62%	76%	+$15,729	-$13,054	10.4%	$-13,054 (vs do-nothing $-20,929)
$1020	35d	7 Aug 2026	$100.70	5/5	$43,157	$42,242	62%	73%	+$6,834	-$31,555	25.2%	$-31,555 (vs do-nothing $-39,430)
$1020	28d	31 Jul 2026	$89.20	5/5	$47,786	$46,870	62%	73%	+$7,541	-$37,305	29.8%	$-37,305 (vs do-nothing $-45,180)
$1008	7d	10 Jul 2026	$45.85	3/5	$58,950	$64,784	61%	73%	+$13,624	-$39,138	31.3%	$-35,988 (vs do-nothing $-43,863)
$1015	42d	14 Aug 2026	$140.03	5/5	$50,011	$49,095	61%	75%	+$15,864	-$14,390	11.5%	$-14,390 (vs do-nothing $-22,265)
$1015	35d	7 Aug 2026	$102.80	5/5	$44,057	$43,142	61%	73%	+$6,889	-$33,005	26.4%	$-33,005 (vs do-nothing $-40,880)
$1015	21d	24 Jul 2026	$79.10	4/5	$45,200	$47,659	61%	72%	+$7,654	-$35,884	28.7%	$-34,309 (vs do-nothing $-42,184)
$1015	28d	31 Jul 2026	$91.60	5/5	$49,071	$48,156	61%	72%	+$7,759	-$38,605	30.9%	$-38,605 (vs do-nothing $-46,480)
$1005	7d	10 Jul 2026	$46.90	3/5	$60,300	$66,134	61%	72%	+$13,698	-$39,573	31.7%	$-36,423 (vs do-nothing $-44,298)
$1010	42d	14 Aug 2026	$142.37	5/5	$50,845	$49,930	61%	75%	+$15,993	-$15,722	12.6%	$-15,722 (vs do-nothing $-23,597)
$1010	14d	17 Jul 2026	$66.35	4/5	$56,871	$59,331	61%	72%	+$10,980	-$42,984	34.4%	$-41,409 (vs do-nothing $-49,284)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-03 10:56