FORTRESS FIGHT: NEM @ $96.70

BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $116.29 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-07 10:52

NEM @ $96.70 UNDERWATER $17.84 (15.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $116.29 | IV: HIGH

LC: $87.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $45.141/sh)

SP: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $18.953/sh)

HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.477/sh)

Current CCs

Contract	Expiry	Type	Status	Sigma	Survival	Entry
5x $98 call	10 Jul 2026 (3d)	FIGHT	ACTIVE	σ 0.33	63%	entry $0.92

Economics

Max Loss	$28,520	(ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500
Normal income ref	$4,544/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$290/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-10,316	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,272/mo

HEDGE COVER
$290/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$4,544/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $13,520

ML VELOCITY
6.3 mo to earn back $28,520

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $116.29 (probe: $116C 17d) brings only $159/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

Hole (after banked)

$10,316

was $10,316 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$458

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $98C 10 Jul 2026	U10001299	$0.92	$458	2026-07-02

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 18 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 40 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $126.91 (+31%) · daily UBB $107.33 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $102 / 10d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,272/mo); it brings $2,295/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $98/10d for $4,875/mo, but breach risk rises to 41% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $110/10d (96% survival, $324/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $6,382 (47% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 1.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-10,374 and cuts bleed by $290/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 marks the recommendation, the safest strike that still clears the income floor (50% of normal), shown first; it hands off to the 🛡 safe-yield rung when that rung buys meaningful survival for little income. 🛡 safe yield inverts the objective (survival pinned ≥90%, max income available there, all contracts); then 33%, 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $102 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $2,295/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $103 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 81% (breach 22% → 19%) for $615/mo less (27% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

Rung	Sell	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	4 × $110	13.8%	96%	4%	$324	-$1,971	$2,410
🛡 safe yield	5 × $107	10.7%	92%	8%	$645	-$1,650	$4,432
33% normal	5 × $103	6.5%	81%	19%	$1,680	-$615	$6,087
🎯 50% normal	5 × $102	5.5%	78%	22%	$2,295	—	$6,382
100% normal	5 × $98	1.3%	59%	41%	$4,875	+$2,580	$7,522

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on NEM are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$102, 5.5% OTM, 78% surv

Sell 5 × $102 5.5% OTM over spot $96.70 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.65 mid)

= $765 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,295/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $102)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $103.64)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,255

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-3.7] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,896

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

36%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$879

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$109 @ 82% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.65/sh now → $3.29 mid-life (likely $3.46–$5.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,081 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $103 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$102	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.61/sh	+$804 cycle +$1,569 [+$601…+$856] · 100% credit	70% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$104	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.54/sh	+$272 cycle +$1,037 [+$22…+$277] · 78% credit	74% surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$105	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.14/sh	+$71 cycle +$836 [-$204…+$62] · 32% credit	75% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$105	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.14/sh	+$71 cycle +$836 [-$204…+$62] · 32% credit	75% surv 64%
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$109	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.52/sh	-$759 cycle +$6 [-$1,235…-$818]	82% surv 77%
budget: banked $765 debit $759 (99% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,213/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,295/mo
vs 50% target ($2,272/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($4,544/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,005/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $102 is $14 below CC-SS $116.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,382
… as % of IC ($13,520)	47.2%
… as % of ML ($28,520)	22.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-10,374

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.53 collected) or spot ≥ $103.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $100.98	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $101-103.64	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $103.64	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$102.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$765	$-6,761	+$3,555	+$725
+2.5%	$104.55 (1.1σ)	$-510	$-6,693	+$3,623	-$550
+5%	$107.10 (1.4σ)	$-1,785	$-6,626	+$3,691	-$1,825
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.54 (2.5σ)	$-5,505	$-6,429	+$3,888	-$5,545

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$6,382

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,382 (+$3,934 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-607 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,775, the opportunity cost of earning $2,295/mo FIGHT income now)

🛡 safe yield · sell 5×$107, 10.7% OTM, 92% surv

Sell 5 × $107 10.7% OTM over spot $96.70 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.11 mid)

= $215 credit for the 10d cycle → $645/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $107)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $108.11)

94%

EV / mo

+$405

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.2] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $816

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,603

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$110 @ 75% POP

63% survival

Buyback gross: $5.14/sh now → $3.64 mid-life (likely $3.08–$4.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 382 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $108 (overshoots $1.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$107	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.74/sh	+$869 cycle +$1,084 [+$763…+$1,115] · 100% credit	70% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$110	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.28/sh	+$141 cycle +$356 [-$38…+$305] · 71% credit	75% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$110	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.28/sh	+$141 cycle +$356 [-$38…+$305] · 71% credit	75% surv 63%
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$645/mo
vs 50% target ($2,272/mo)	-72%
vs normal income ($4,544/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$355/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $107 is $9 below CC-SS $116.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,432
… as % of IC ($13,520)	32.8%
… as % of ML ($28,520)	15.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-10,659

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $108.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $105.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $106-108.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $108.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$107.00 (1.4σ)	$215	$-4,678	+$5,638	+$175
+2.5%	$109.67 (1.8σ)	$-1,122	$-4,607	+$5,709	-$1,162
+5%	$112.35 (2.2σ)	$-2,460	$-4,537	+$5,780	-$2,500
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.54 (2.5σ)	$-3,555	$-4,479	+$5,838	-$3,595

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $107): -$4,432

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,432 (+$5,884 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-607 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,825, the opportunity cost of earning $645/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal · sell 5×$103, 6.5% OTM, 81% surv

Sell 5 × $103 6.5% OTM over spot $96.70 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.39 mid)

= $560 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,680/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $103)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $104.39)

86%

EV / mo

+$892

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,254

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,118

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$109 @ 80% POP

74% survival

Buyback gross: $4.75/sh now → $3.36 mid-life (likely $3.32–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 905 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $104 (overshoots $1.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.63/sh	+$817 cycle +$1,377 [+$627…+$920] · 99% credit	70% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$105	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.57/sh	+$285 cycle +$845 [+$42…+$341] · 81% credit	73% surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$106	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.17/sh	+$85 cycle +$645 [-$184…+$123] · 40% credit	75% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$106	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.17/sh	+$85 cycle +$645 [-$184…+$123] · 40% credit	75% surv 64%
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$109	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.97/sh	-$485 cycle +$75 [-$863…-$481] · 2% credit	80% surv 74%
budget: banked $560 debit $485 (87% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,984/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,680/mo
vs 50% target ($2,272/mo)	-26%
vs normal income ($4,544/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,390/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $103 is $13 below CC-SS $116.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,087
… as % of IC ($13,520)	45.0%
… as % of ML ($28,520)	21.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-10,451

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.12 collected) or spot ≥ $104.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $101.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $102-104.39	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $104.39	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$103.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$560	$-6,439	+$3,877	+$520
+2.5%	$105.57 (1.2σ)	$-727	$-6,371	+$3,945	-$767
+5%	$108.15 (1.6σ)	$-2,015	$-6,303	+$4,013	-$2,055
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.54 (2.5σ)	$-5,210	$-6,134	+$4,183	-$5,250

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$6,087

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,087 (+$4,229 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-607 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,480, the opportunity cost of earning $1,680/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 5×$98, 1.3% OTM, 59% surv

Sell 5 × $98 1.3% OTM over spot $96.70 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $3.40 mid)

= $1,625 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,875/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

59%

Breach risk

41%

POP (stays ≤ $101.40)

75%

EV / mo

+$2,081

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~15.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,183

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

71%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$113

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$111 @ 92% POP

92% survival

Buyback gross: $4.28/sh now → $3.02 mid-life (likely $4.07–$5.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,118 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $99 (overshoots $1.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.51/sh	+$754 cycle +$2,379 [+$466…+$620] · 99% credit	70% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$99	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.89/sh	+$444 cycle +$2,069 [+$125…+$300] · 89% credit	72% surv 57%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$101	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.04/sh	+$19 cycle +$1,644 [-$362…-$145] · 9% credit	76% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$101	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.04/sh	+$19 cycle +$1,644 [-$362…-$145] · 9% credit	76% surv 65%
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$111	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.47/sh	-$1,235 cycle +$390 [-$2,116…-$1,594]	92% surv 92%
budget: banked $1,625 debit $1,235 (76% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$390 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $691/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,875/mo
vs 50% target ($2,272/mo)	+115%
vs normal income ($4,544/mo)	107% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,585/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $98 is $18 below CC-SS $116.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,522
… as % of IC ($13,520)	55.6%
… as % of ML ($28,520)	26.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-10,391

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.81/sh (~25% of the $3.25 collected) or spot ≥ $101.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $97.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $97-101.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $101.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$98.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,625	$-8,007	+$2,309	+$1,585
+2.5%	$100.45 (≤1σ, normal week)	$400	$-7,942	+$2,374	+$360
+5%	$102.90 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-825	$-7,877	+$2,439	-$865
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.54 (2.5σ)	$-6,645	$-7,569	+$2,748	-$6,685

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$7,522

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,522 (+$2,794 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-607 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,915, the opportunity cost of earning $4,875/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 4×$110, 13.8% OTM, 96% surv

Sell 4 × $110 13.8% OTM over spot $96.70 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.32 mid)

= $108 credit for the 10d cycle → $324/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $110)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $110.31)

96%

EV / mo

+$247

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.3] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-5

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,433

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$113 @ 75% POP

63% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.45/sh now → $3.85 mid-life (likely $2.54–$4.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 152 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $111 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$110	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.82/sh	+$727 cycle +$835 [+$728…+$1,097] · 100% credit	70% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$113	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.37/sh	+$149 cycle +$257 [+$74…+$451] · 88% credit	75% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$113	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.37/sh	+$149 cycle +$257 [+$74…+$451] · 88% credit	75% surv 63%
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$324/mo
vs 50% target ($2,272/mo)	-86%
vs normal income ($4,544/mo)	7% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$58/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $110 is $6 below CC-SS $116.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,410
… as % of IC ($13,520)	17.8%
… as % of ML ($28,520)	8.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-8,271

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $110.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $108.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $109-110.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $110.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$110.00 (1.8σ)	$108	$-3,198	+$7,118	+$76
+2.5%	$112.75 (2.2σ)	$-992	$-2,850	+$7,466	-$1,024
+5%	$115.50 (2.6σ)	$-2,092	$-2,552	+$7,764	-$1,924

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.29, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$2,410

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $115): -$121

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,531 (+$7,785 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-607 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,924, the opportunity cost of earning $324/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.053 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,316 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-607

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$102	10d	17 Jul 2026	$1.53	5/5	$2,295	$2,005	78%	83%	+$1,255	-$6,382	47.2%	$-6,382 (vs do-nothing $-5,775)
$101	10d	17 Jul 2026	$1.75	5/5	$2,625	$2,335	73%	81%	+$1,267	-$6,772	50.1%	$-6,772 (vs do-nothing $-6,165)
$103	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.64	5/5	$2,329	$2,040	73%	82%	+$1,039	-$5,327	39.4%	$-5,327 (vs do-nothing $-4,720)
$102	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.00	5/5	$2,647	$2,357	70%	79%	+$1,123	-$5,647	41.8%	$-5,647 (vs do-nothing $-5,040)
$100	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.25	4/5	$2,700	$2,434	69%	79%	+$1,300	-$5,618	41.6%	$-5,739 (vs do-nothing $-5,132)
$101	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	5/5	$2,735	$2,446	67%	79%	+$946	-$6,097	45.1%	$-6,097 (vs do-nothing $-5,490)
$99	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.69	3/5	$2,421	$2,179	64%	77%	+$1,085	-$4,381	32.4%	$-4,624 (vs do-nothing $-4,017)
$100	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	4/5	$2,682	$2,417	64%	76%	+$1,012	-$4,998	37.0%	$-5,119 (vs do-nothing $-4,512)
$99	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	4/5	$2,965	$2,699	60%	74%	+$1,026	-$5,238	38.7%	$-5,359 (vs do-nothing $-4,752)
$98	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.25	3/5	$2,925	$2,683	59%	75%	+$1,249	-$4,513	33.4%	$-4,756 (vs do-nothing $-4,149)
$98	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	3/5	$2,462	$2,220	57%	73%	+$785	-$4,093	30.3%	$-4,336 (vs do-nothing $-3,729)
$97.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.30	3/5	$2,970	$2,728	56%	74%	+$1,102	-$4,648	34.4%	$-4,891 (vs do-nothing $-4,284)
$97	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.15	3/5	$2,726	$2,485	53%	71%	+$805	-$4,243	31.4%	$-4,486 (vs do-nothing $-3,879)

Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$97	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.65	3/5	$3,285	$3,043	53%	72%	+$1,211	-$4,693	34.7%	$-4,936 (vs do-nothing $-4,329)
$96	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.50	3/5	$2,912	$2,670	50%	72%	+$723	-$4,438	32.8%	$-4,681 (vs do-nothing $-4,074)
$96	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.15	2/5	$2,490	$2,272	48%	70%	+$802	-$3,229	23.9%	$-3,593 (vs do-nothing $-2,986)
$95	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.15	3/5	$3,256	$3,014	46%	68%	+$778	-$4,543	33.6%	$-4,786 (vs do-nothing $-4,179)
$95	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.80	2/5	$2,880	$2,662	42%	69%	+$848	-$3,299	24.4%	$-3,663 (vs do-nothing $-3,056)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 10:52