NEM @ $95.90 UNDERWATER $18.64 (16.3% below BE SS)
5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $118.83 | IV: HIGH
LC: $87.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $45.141/sh)
SP: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $18.953/sh)
HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.477/sh)
Current CCs
| Contract | Expiry | Type | Status | Sigma | Survival | Entry |
|---|
| 5x $98 call | 10 Jul 2026 (3d) | FIGHT | ACTIVE | σ 0.53 | 70% | entry $0.92 |
Economics
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,853/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $290/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,316 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,426/mo
HEDGE COVER
$290/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,853/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.8 mo to earn back $13,520
ML VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $28,520
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $118.83 (probe: $119C 17d) brings only $44/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$0
Hole (after banked)
$10,316
was $10,316 · 0% earned back
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 5x $98C 10 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.92 | $458 | 2026-07-02 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 16 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 36 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $126.91 (+32%) · daily UBB $107.33 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $101 / 10d. This is the safest strike (survival 77%, breach 23%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,426/mo); it brings $2,625/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $98/10d for $4,875/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $110/10d (96% survival, $324/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $8,038 (59% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 1.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-10,439 and cuts bleed by $290/mo.
📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first
Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 marks the recommendation, the safest strike that still clears the income floor (50% of normal), shown first; it hands off to the 🛡 safe-yield rung when that rung buys meaningful survival for little income. 🛡 safe yield inverts the objective (survival pinned ≥90%, max income available there, all contracts); then 33%, 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.
🎯
Engine pick: sell
5 × $101 (primary),
77% survival, breach
23%,
$2,625/mo.
⚖️
Worth a safer step: the
$103 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to
84% (breach 23% → 16%) for
$945/mo less (36% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium.
Lean: the safer $103 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect NEM to stay flat-to-down near term.
NEM spot $95.90
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Breach | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up |
|---|
| cover hedge | 4 × $110 | 17 Jul | 10d | 14.7% | 96% | 4% | $324 | -$2,301 | $3,422 |
| 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $106 | 17 Jul | 10d | 10.5% | 91% | 9% | $975 | -$1,650 | $6,088 |
| 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $103 | 17 Jul | 10d | 7.4% | 84% | 16% | $1,680 | -$945 | $7,353 |
| 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $101 | 17 Jul | 10d | 5.3% | 77% | 23% | $2,625 | — | $8,038 |
| 100% normal | 5 × $98 | 17 Jul | 10d | 2.2% | 63% | 37% | $4,875 | +$2,250 | $8,788 |
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on NEM are the tiebreakers.
🎯 50% normal · sell 5×$101, 5.3% OTM, 77% surv
Sell 5 × $101 5.3% OTM over spot $95.90 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.00 mid)
= $875 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,625/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $101)
77%
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,609
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
38%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$990
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$108 @ 83% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.27/sh now → $3.73 mid-life (likely $3.97–$5.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,138 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $102 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$101 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$1.44/sh | +$720 cycle +$1,595 [+$430…+$753] · 97% credit | 71% surv 52% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$103 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.50/sh | +$252 cycle +$1,127 [-$70…+$244] · 64% credit | 74% surv 60% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$104 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.05/sh | +$27 cycle +$902 [-$323…+$2] · 25% credit | 76% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.05/sh | +$27 cycle +$902 [-$323…+$2] · 25% credit | 76% surv 64% |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$108 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$1.47/sh | -$735 cycle +$140 [-$1,254…-$808] | 83% surv 77% |
| budget: banked $875 debit $735 (84% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$140 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,824/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,426/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($4,853/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,335/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $101 is $18 below CC-SS $118.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,038 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 59.4% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 28.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-10,439 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $103.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $99.99 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$100-103.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $103.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $101.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $875 | $-7,146 | +$3,170 | +$835 |
| +2.5% | $103.52 (1.1σ) | $-387 | $-7,273 | +$3,044 | -$427 |
| +5% | $106.05 (1.4σ) | $-1,650 | $-7,399 | +$2,917 | -$1,690 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (2.6σ) | $-5,895 | $-7,823 | +$2,493 | -$5,935 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $101): -$8,038
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,038 (+$2,279 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,873 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,165, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield · sell 5×$106, 10.5% OTM, 91% surv
Sell 5 × $106 10.5% OTM over spot $95.90 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.77 mid)
= $325 credit for the 10d cycle → $975/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $106)
91%
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.2] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,159
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,739
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$110 @ 77% POP
66% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.84/sh now → $4.13 mid-life (likely $3.24–$5.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 344 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $107 (overshoots $1.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$106 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$1.55/sh | +$775 cycle +$1,100 [+$627…+$1,092] · 99% credit | 71% surv 52% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$108 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.64/sh | +$319 cycle +$644 [+$141…+$588] · 86% credit | 74% surv 59% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$109 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.19/sh | +$94 cycle +$419 [-$117…+$349] · 59% credit | 76% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$109 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.19/sh | +$94 cycle +$419 [-$117…+$349] · 59% credit | 76% surv 63% |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$110 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.21/sh | -$106 cycle +$219 [-$337…+$135] · 35% credit | 77% surv 66% |
| budget: banked $325 debit $106 (33% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$219 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,893/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $975/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,426/mo) | -60% |
| vs normal income ($4,853/mo) | 20% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $685/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $106 is $13 below CC-SS $118.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,088 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 45.0% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 21.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-10,374 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $106.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $104.94 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$105-106.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $106.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $106.00 (1.4σ) | $325 | $-5,446 | +$4,870 | +$285 |
| +2.5% | $108.65 (1.8σ) | $-1,000 | $-5,579 | +$4,737 | -$1,040 |
| +5% | $111.30 (2.1σ) | $-2,325 | $-5,711 | +$4,605 | -$2,365 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (2.6σ) | $-3,945 | $-5,873 | +$4,443 | -$3,985 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $106): -$6,088
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,088 (+$4,229 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,873 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,215, the opportunity cost of earning $975/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$103, 7.4% OTM, 84% surv
Sell 5 × $103 7.4% OTM over spot $95.90 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.39 mid)
= $560 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,680/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $103)
84%
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.5] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,795
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
26%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,383
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$109 @ 81% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.50/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $3.58–$5.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 768 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $104 (overshoots $1.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$103 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$1.48/sh | +$742 cycle +$1,302 [+$507…+$915] · 97% credit | 71% surv 52% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$105 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.56/sh | +$279 cycle +$839 [+$13…+$404] · 76% credit | 74% surv 60% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$106 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.11/sh | +$53 cycle +$613 [-$237…+$164] · 42% credit | 76% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$106 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.11/sh | +$53 cycle +$613 [-$237…+$164] · 42% credit | 76% surv 63% |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$109 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$1.09/sh | -$543 cycle +$17 [-$927…-$470] · 4% credit | 81% surv 73% |
| budget: banked $560 debit $543 (97% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,501/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,680/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,426/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($4,853/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,390/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $103 is $16 below CC-SS $118.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,353 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 54.4% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 25.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-10,451 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.12 collected) or spot ≥ $104.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $101.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$102-104.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $104.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $103.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $560 | $-6,561 | +$3,755 | +$520 |
| +2.5% | $105.57 (1.3σ) | $-727 | $-6,690 | +$3,626 | -$767 |
| +5% | $108.15 (1.7σ) | $-2,015 | $-6,819 | +$3,497 | -$2,055 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (2.6σ) | $-5,210 | $-7,138 | +$3,178 | -$5,250 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$7,353
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,353 (+$2,964 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,873 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,480, the opportunity cost of earning $1,680/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal · sell 5×$98, 2.2% OTM, 63% surv
Sell 5 × $98 2.2% OTM over spot $95.90 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $3.40 mid)
= $1,625 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,875/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $98)
63%
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-4.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~12.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,179
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
63%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$125
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$110 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.95/sh now → $3.50 mid-life (likely $4.47–$6.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,892 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $99 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$1.38/sh | +$688 cycle +$2,313 [+$313…+$552] · 97% credit | 71% surv 52% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$99 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.93/sh | +$465 cycle +$2,090 [+$86…+$325] · 85% credit | 73% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$100 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.43/sh | +$213 cycle +$1,838 [-$197…+$57] · 35% credit | 74% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$100 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.43/sh | +$213 cycle +$1,838 [-$197…+$57] · 35% credit | 74% surv 60% |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$110 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$2.76/sh | -$1,381 cycle +$244 [-$2,305…-$1,732] | 91% surv 90% |
| budget: banked $1,625 debit $1,381 (85% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$244 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $923/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,426/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($4,853/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,585/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $98 is $21 below CC-SS $118.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,788 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 65.0% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 30.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-10,391 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.81/sh (~25% of the $3.25 collected) or spot ≥ $101.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$97-101.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $101.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,625 | $-7,746 | +$2,570 | +$1,585 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (≤1σ, normal week) | $400 | $-7,869 | +$2,447 | +$360 |
| +5% | $102.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-825 | $-7,991 | +$2,325 | -$865 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.54 (2.6σ) | $-6,645 | $-8,573 | +$1,743 | -$6,685 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$8,788
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,788 (+$1,529 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,873 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,915, the opportunity cost of earning $4,875/mo FIGHT income now)
cover hedge · sell 4×$110, 14.7% OTM, 96% surv
Sell 4 × $110 14.7% OTM over spot $95.90 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.32 mid)
= $108 credit for the 10d cycle → $324/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $110)
96%
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-280
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
4%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,676
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$114 @ 77% POP
65% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.31/sh now → $4.46 mid-life (likely $2.86–$5.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 109 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $112 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$110 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$1.64/sh | +$656 cycle +$764 [+$640…+$1,102] · 99% credit | 71% surv 52% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$113 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.30/sh | +$121 cycle +$229 [+$18…+$497] · 75% credit | 75% surv 62% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$113 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.30/sh | +$121 cycle +$229 [+$18…+$497] · 75% credit | 75% surv 62% |
| SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$114 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.10/sh | -$39 cycle +$69 [-$169…+$322] · 53% credit | 77% surv 65% |
| budget: banked $108 debit $39 (36% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$69 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $4,362/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $324/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,426/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($4,853/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $58/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $110 is $9 below CC-SS $118.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,422 |
| … as % of IC ($13,520) | 25.3% |
| … as % of ML ($28,520) | 12.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-8,271 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $110.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $107.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $108.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$109-110.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $110.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $110.00 (1.9σ) | $108 | $-3,855 | +$6,461 | +$76 |
| +2.5% | $112.75 (2.3σ) | $-992 | $-3,718 | +$6,598 | -$1,024 |
| +5% | $115.50 (2.7σ) | $-2,092 | $-3,630 | +$6,686 | -$1,924 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,316
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,316
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$3,422
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $115): -$375
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,797 (+$6,520 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,873 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,924, the opportunity cost of earning $324/mo FIGHT income now)
FIGHT CC options
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$10,316 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,873
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $101 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 5/5 | $2,625 | $2,335 | 77% | 84% | +$1,549 | -$8,038 | 59.4% | $-8,038 (vs do-nothing $-6,165) |
| $102 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/5 | $2,647 | $2,357 | 73% | 81% | +$1,328 | -$6,913 | 51.1% | $-6,913 (vs do-nothing $-5,040) |
| $100 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 4/5 | $2,700 | $2,434 | 73% | 82% | +$1,574 | -$6,630 | 49.0% | $-7,005 (vs do-nothing $-5,132) |
| $101 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $2,735 | $2,446 | 70% | 81% | +$1,177 | -$7,363 | 54.5% | $-7,363 (vs do-nothing $-5,490) |
| $99 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.69 | 4/5 | $3,228 | $2,962 | 68% | 80% | +$1,776 | -$6,854 | 50.7% | $-7,229 (vs do-nothing $-5,356) |
| $100 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 4/5 | $2,682 | $2,417 | 66% | 78% | +$1,219 | -$6,010 | 44.5% | $-6,385 (vs do-nothing $-4,512) |
| $99 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 4/5 | $2,965 | $2,699 | 63% | 76% | +$1,256 | -$6,250 | 46.2% | $-6,625 (vs do-nothing $-4,752) |
| $98 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 3/5 | $2,925 | $2,683 | 63% | 78% | +$1,539 | -$5,273 | 39.0% | $-6,022 (vs do-nothing $-4,149) |
| $97.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 3/5 | $2,970 | $2,728 | 60% | 78% | +$1,415 | -$5,408 | 40.0% | $-6,157 (vs do-nothing $-4,284) |
| $98 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 3/5 | $2,462 | $2,220 | 60% | 75% | +$975 | -$4,853 | 35.9% | $-5,602 (vs do-nothing $-3,729) |
| $97 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 3/5 | $3,285 | $3,043 | 58% | 76% | +$1,547 | -$5,453 | 40.3% | $-6,202 (vs do-nothing $-4,329) |
| $97 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/5 | $2,726 | $2,485 | 56% | 74% | +$1,013 | -$5,003 | 37.0% | $-5,752 (vs do-nothing $-3,879) |
| $96 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 3/5 | $2,912 | $2,670 | 53% | 74% | +$949 | -$5,198 | 38.4% | $-5,947 (vs do-nothing $-4,074) |
Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $96 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 2/5 | $2,490 | $2,272 | 52% | 74% | +$1,058 | -$3,735 | 27.6% | $-4,859 (vs do-nothing $-2,986) |
| $95 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 3/5 | $3,256 | $3,014 | 49% | 71% | +$1,021 | -$5,303 | 39.2% | $-6,052 (vs do-nothing $-4,179) |
| $95 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 2/5 | $2,880 | $2,662 | 47% | 72% | +$1,134 | -$3,805 | 28.1% | $-4,929 (vs do-nothing $-3,056) |
| $94 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 3/5 | $3,574 | $3,332 | 45% | 70% | +$1,044 | -$5,423 | 40.1% | $-6,172 (vs do-nothing $-4,299) |
| $94 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $3,082 | 41% | 72% | +$1,201 | -$3,865 | 28.6% | $-4,989 (vs do-nothing $-3,116) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.
Legend
| BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike) | The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS. |
| Max Loss (ML) | Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike. |
| Normal income | At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS). |
| 50% income floor | The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it |
| Hedge rolling cost | Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares |
| POP (mid) | Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available |
| Survival | Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike) |
| EV/mo | Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%) |
| CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike) | The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager). |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS | (CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS. |
| %IC / %ML | Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary) |
| Recovery months | Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income |
| Conservative CC | Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts |