FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

2 tickers, 15 contracts | Normal income ref: $17,148/mo | 2026-06-30 15:58

NEM @ $94.40 UNDERWATER $20.14 (17.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $122.12 | IV: MEDIUM

LC: $88 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $45.141/sh)

SP: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $18.953/sh)

HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.477/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$28,520	(ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500
Normal income ref	$2,956/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$281/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-12,475	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,478/mo

HEDGE COVER
$281/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$2,956/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.6 mo to earn back $13,520

ML VELOCITY
9.6 mo to earn back $28,520

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $122 brings only $88/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 10 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 39 · %B 21 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $109.49 (+16%) · daily UBB $111.16 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $99 / 10d. This is the safest strike (survival 75%, breach 25%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,478/mo); it brings $1,680/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $95/10d for $3,330/mo, but breach risk rises to 46% (+21pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $105/10d (93% survival, $330/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $11,002 (81% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 3.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-12,528 and cuts bleed by $281/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again).

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $99 (primary) — 75% survival, breach 25%, $1,680/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $101 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 25% → 17%) for $645/mo less (38% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $101 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect NEM to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on NEM are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$99, 4.9% OTM, 75% surv

Sell 5 × $99 4.9% OTM over spot $94.40 10 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.23 mid)

= $560 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,680/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $99)

75%

Breach risk

25%

POP (stays ≤ $100.22)

80%

EV / mo

+$591

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

25%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$881

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$105 @ 75% POP

68% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.08/sh now → $2.88 mid-life (likely $3.00–$4.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,193 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $100 (overshoots $1.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$0.69/sh	+$347 cycle +$907 [+$67…+$410] · 84% credit	72% surv 60%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$99	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.48/sh	+$239 cycle +$799 [-$26…+$296] · 70% credit	66% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.26/sh	+$131 cycle +$691 [-$141…+$176] · 47% credit	67% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$103	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$0.29/sh	+$147 cycle +$707 [-$161…+$190] · 47% credit	74% surv 63%
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$105	24 Jul 2026	19d left	-$0.46/sh	-$232 cycle +$328 [-$677…-$239] · 13% credit	75% surv 68%
budget: banked $560 debit $232 (41% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$328 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,909/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,680/mo
vs 50% target ($1,478/mo)	+14%
vs normal income ($2,956/mo)	57% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,399/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $99 is $23 below CC-SS $122: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,002
… as % of IC ($13,520)	81.4%
… as % of ML ($28,520)	38.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,528

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.12 collected) or spot ≥ $100.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $111.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $98-100.22	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $100.22	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$99.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$560	$-9,845	+$2,630	+$555
+2.5%	$101.47 (1.0σ)	$-677	$-9,969	+$2,506	-$682
+5%	$103.95 (1.4σ)	$-1,915	$-10,093	+$2,382	-$1,920
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.54 (3.0σ)	$-7,210	$-10,622	+$1,853	-$7,215

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $122.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,475

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,475

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $99): -$11,002

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,002 (+$1,474 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,557 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,445, the opportunity cost of earning $1,680/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $109.49 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,685, position total $-10,370 (+$2,105 vs today)

33% normal · sell 5×$101, 7.0% OTM, 83% surv

Sell 5 × $101 7.0% OTM over spot $94.40 10 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.82 mid)

= $345 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,035/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $101)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $101.83)

85%

EV / mo

+$436

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,159

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$105 @ 73% POP

63% survival

Buyback gross: $4.25/sh now → $3.01 mid-life (likely $2.79–$4.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 782 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $102 (overshoots $1.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$101	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.50/sh	+$249 cycle +$594 [+$33…+$400] · 82% credit	66% surv 50%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$105	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$0.37/sh	+$187 cycle +$532 [-$67…+$340] · 64% credit	73% surv 63%
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$102	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.29/sh	+$143 cycle +$488 [-$83…+$283] · 60% credit	67% surv 53%

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,035/mo
vs 50% target ($1,478/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($2,956/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$754/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $101 is $21 below CC-SS $122: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,217
… as % of IC ($13,520)	75.6%
… as % of ML ($28,520)	35.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,543

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $101.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $111.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.99	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $100-101.83	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $101.83	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$101.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$345	$-9,160	+$3,315	+$340
+2.5%	$103.52 (1.3σ)	$-917	$-9,287	+$3,189	-$922
+5%	$106.05 (1.7σ)	$-2,180	$-9,413	+$3,062	-$2,185
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.54 (3.0σ)	$-6,425	$-9,837	+$2,638	-$6,430

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $122.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,475

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,475

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $101): -$10,217

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,217 (+$2,259 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,557 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,660, the opportunity cost of earning $1,035/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $109.49 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,900, position total $-9,585 (+$2,890 vs today)

100% normal · sell 5×$95, 0.6% OTM, 54% surv

Sell 5 × $95 0.6% OTM over spot $94.40 10 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.86 mid)

= $1,110 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,330/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

54%

Breach risk

46%

POP (stays ≤ $97.86)

69%

EV / mo

+$293

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

46%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$209

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$108 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $3.73/sh now → $2.64 mid-life (likely $3.66–$5.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,307 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $96 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$97	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$0.94/sh	+$470 cycle +$1,580 [+$8…+$233] · 76% credit	68% surv 56%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.44/sh	+$218 cycle +$1,328 [-$164…+$17] · 29% credit	66% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$107 cycle +$1,217 [-$284…-$97] · 12% credit	67% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$0.14/sh	+$70 cycle +$1,180 [-$382…-$166] · 9% credit	74% surv 65%
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$108	24 Jul 2026	19d left	-$2.15/sh	-$1,074 cycle +$36 [-$2,018…-$1,482]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $1,110 debit $1,074 (97% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$36 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $388/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,330/mo
vs 50% target ($1,478/mo)	+125%
vs normal income ($2,956/mo)	113% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,049/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $95 is $27 below CC-SS $122: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,452
… as % of IC ($13,520)	92.1%
… as % of ML ($28,520)	43.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,795

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.22 collected) or spot ≥ $97.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $111.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $94-97.86	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $97.86	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$95.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,110	$-11,095	+$1,380	+$1,105
+2.5%	$97.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-77	$-11,214	+$1,261	-$82
+5%	$99.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,265	$-11,333	+$1,142	-$1,270
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.54 (3.0σ)	$-8,660	$-12,072	+$403	-$8,665

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $122.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,475

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,475

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$12,452

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,452 (+$24 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,557 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,895, the opportunity cost of earning $3,330/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $109.49 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,135, position total $-11,820 (+$656 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 5×$105, 11.2% OTM, 93% surv

Sell 5 × $105 11.2% OTM over spot $94.40 10 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.28 mid)

= $110 credit for the 10d cycle → $330/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $105)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $105.28)

93%

EV / mo

+$169

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,524

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$109 @ 73% POP

62% survival

Buyback gross: $4.62/sh now → $3.27 mid-life (likely $2.39–$4.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 329 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $106 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$105	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.54/sh	+$272 cycle +$382 [+$163…+$614] · 89% credit	66% surv 50%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$109	24 Jul 2026	19d left	+$0.55/sh	+$273 cycle +$383 [+$141…+$639] · 87% credit	73% surv 62%
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$106	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.34/sh	+$169 cycle +$279 [+$49…+$502] · 81% credit	67% surv 53%

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$330/mo
vs 50% target ($1,478/mo)	-78%
vs normal income ($2,956/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$49/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $105 is $17 below CC-SS $122: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,452
… as % of IC ($13,520)	62.5%
… as % of ML ($28,520)	29.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,508

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $105.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $111.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $104-105.28	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $105.28	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$105.00 (1.6σ)	$110	$-7,595	+$4,880	+$105
+2.5%	$107.62 (1.9σ)	$-1,202	$-7,727	+$4,749	-$1,207
+5%	$110.25 (2.3σ)	$-2,515	$-7,858	+$4,617	-$2,520
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.54 (3.0σ)	$-4,660	$-8,072	+$4,403	-$4,665

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $122.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,475

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,475

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$8,452

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,452 (+$4,024 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,557 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,895, the opportunity cost of earning $330/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $109.49 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,135, position total $-7,820 (+$4,655 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$12,475 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,557

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$99	10d	10 Jul 2026	$1.12	5/5	$1,680	$1,399	75%	80%	+$591	-$11,002	81.4%	$-11,002 (vs do-nothing $-7,445)
$98	10d	10 Jul 2026	$1.23	5/5	$1,845	$1,564	70%	79%	+$406	-$11,447	84.7%	$-11,447 (vs do-nothing $-7,890)
$99	17d	17 Jul 2026	$1.88	5/5	$1,659	$1,378	69%	76%	+$504	-$10,622	78.6%	$-10,622 (vs do-nothing $-7,065)
$100	24d	24 Jul 2026	$2.51	5/5	$1,569	$1,288	68%	75%	+$369	-$9,807	72.5%	$-9,807 (vs do-nothing $-6,250)
$98	17d	17 Jul 2026	$2.20	4/5	$1,553	$1,275	66%	74%	+$433	-$8,769	64.9%	$-9,481 (vs do-nothing $-5,924)
$97	10d	10 Jul 2026	$1.73	3/5	$1,557	$1,282	65%	74%	+$433	-$7,018	51.9%	$-8,441 (vs do-nothing $-4,884)
$98	17d	17 Jul 2026	$2.34	4/5	$1,652	$1,374	64%	73%	+$422	-$8,913	65.9%	$-9,625 (vs do-nothing $-6,068)
$98	24d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	4/5	$1,625	$1,347	63%	74%	+$570	-$8,349	61.8%	$-9,061 (vs do-nothing $-5,504)
$97	17d	17 Jul 2026	$2.56	4/5	$1,807	$1,529	61%	72%	+$459	-$9,025	66.8%	$-9,737 (vs do-nothing $-6,180)
$97	24d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	4/5	$1,825	$1,547	60%	72%	+$596	-$8,589	63.5%	$-9,301 (vs do-nothing $-5,744)
$96	10d	10 Jul 2026	$1.95	3/5	$1,755	$1,480	59%	72%	+$312	-$7,252	53.6%	$-8,675 (vs do-nothing $-5,118)
$96	17d	17 Jul 2026	$2.64	4/5	$1,864	$1,585	57%	70%	+$251	-$9,393	69.5%	$-10,105 (vs do-nothing $-6,548)
$96	24d	24 Jul 2026	$4.05	3/5	$1,519	$1,244	55%	69%	+$280	-$6,622	49.0%	$-8,045 (vs do-nothing $-4,488)

Show 9 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95	10d	10 Jul 2026	$2.22	3/5	$1,998	$1,723	54%	69%	+$176	-$7,471	55.3%	$-8,894 (vs do-nothing $-5,337)
$95	17d	17 Jul 2026	$3.40	3/5	$1,800	$1,525	53%	68%	+$365	-$7,117	52.6%	$-8,540 (vs do-nothing $-4,983)
$95	24d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	3/5	$1,706	$1,431	52%	67%	+$301	-$6,772	50.1%	$-8,195 (vs do-nothing $-4,638)
$94	24d	24 Jul 2026	$5.10	3/5	$1,912	$1,637	49%	66%	+$326	-$6,907	51.1%	$-8,330 (vs do-nothing $-4,773)
$94	17d	17 Jul 2026	$3.75	3/5	$1,985	$1,710	48%	66%	+$295	-$7,312	54.1%	$-8,735 (vs do-nothing $-5,178)
$94	10d	10 Jul 2026	$2.81	2/5	$1,686	$1,414	48%	67%	+$175	-$5,063	37.4%	$-7,197 (vs do-nothing $-3,640)
$93	24d	24 Jul 2026	$4.75	3/5	$1,781	$1,506	45%	65%	$-2	-$7,312	54.1%	$-8,735 (vs do-nothing $-5,178)
$93	17d	17 Jul 2026	$4.00	3/5	$2,118	$1,842	44%	63%	+$143	-$7,537	55.7%	$-8,960 (vs do-nothing $-5,403)
$93	10d	10 Jul 2026	$3.30	2/5	$1,980	$1,708	42%	66%	+$131	-$5,165	38.2%	$-7,299 (vs do-nothing $-3,742)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

GLD @ $369.50 UNDERWATER $86.50 (19.0% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $509.32 | IV: LOW

LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)

SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)

HP: $362 exp 2026-09-30 (entry $4.413/sh)

Current CCs

Contract	Expiry	Type	Status	Sigma	Survival	Entry
5x $410 call	31 Jul 2026 (31d)	FIGHT	ACTIVE	σ 1.54	94%	entry $7.37

Economics

Max Loss	$224,000	(ND $136.00 + SW $88) x 1000
Normal income ref	$14,192/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$4,582/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-125,836	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,096/mo

HEDGE COVER
$4,582/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,192/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
9.6 mo to earn back $136,000

ML VELOCITY
15.8 mo to earn back $224,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $509 brings only $22/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 7 (live) · RSI 36 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 34 · %B 18 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $423.89 (+15%) · daily UBB $414.98 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 10 contracts at $378 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,096/mo); it brings $7,200/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $373/6d for $14,300/mo, but breach risk rises to 38% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $381/6d (84% survival, $4,600/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $129,878 (95% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $456, recoverable in 9.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-125,921 and cuts bleed by $4,582/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 10 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again).

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $378 (primary) — 78% survival, breach 22%, $7,200/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $380 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 22% → 18%) for $2,385/mo less (33% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

🎯 50% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 10×$378, 2.3% OTM, 78% surv

Sell 10 × $378 2.3% OTM over spot $369.50 6 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.52 mid)

= $1,440 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $378)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $379.52)

81%

EV / mo

+$2,316

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,969

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.82/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $3.66–$5.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,045 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $381 (overshoots $2.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	8 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.95/sh	+$949 cycle +$2,389 [+$797…+$1,099] · 100% credit	65% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$388	24 Jul 2026	21d left	+$1.76/sh	+$1,762 cycle +$3,202 [+$972…+$1,963] · 97% credit	74% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$380	8 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.34/sh	+$340 cycle +$1,780 [+$41…+$334] · 80% credit	68% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$394	24 Jul 2026	21d left	+$0.01/sh	+$9 cycle +$1,449 [-$1,158…+$22] · 26% credit	79% surv 75%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	24 Jul 2026	21d left	-$1.38/sh	-$1,378 cycle +$62 [-$2,924…-$1,451] · 2% credit	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $1,440 debit $1,378 (96% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,902/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,200/mo
vs 50% target ($7,096/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($14,192/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,618/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $378 is $131 below CC-SS $509: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$129,878
… as % of IC ($136,000)	95.5%
… as % of ML ($224,000)	58.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-125,921

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.44 collected) or spot ≥ $379.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $378)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $414.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $374.22	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $374-379.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $379.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$378.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,440	$-116,746	+$9,090	+$1,430
+2.5%	$387.45 (1.5σ)	$-8,010	$-117,691	+$8,145	-$8,020
+5%	$396.90 (2.4σ)	$-17,460	$-118,636	+$7,200	-$17,470
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.5σ)	$-76,560	$-124,546	+$1,290	-$75,570

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $509.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-125,836

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,836

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $378): -$129,878

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-129,878 ($-4,042 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-54,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-75,570, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $423.89 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$44,450, position total $-121,335 (+$4,501 vs today)

33% normal · sell 9×$380, 2.8% OTM, 82% surv

Sell 9 × $380 2.8% OTM over spot $369.50 6 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.12 mid)

= $963 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,815/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $381.12)

85%

EV / mo

+$1,776

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,154

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 83% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.90/sh now → $3.46 mid-life (likely $3.52–$5.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 782 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $383 (overshoots $2.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	8 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.96/sh	+$867 cycle +$1,830 [+$758…+$1,019] · 100% credit	65% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$390	24 Jul 2026	21d left	+$1.84/sh	+$1,659 cycle +$2,622 [+$1,067…+$2,003] · 97% credit	74% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$382	8 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.36/sh	+$320 cycle +$1,283 [+$90…+$408] · 86% credit	67% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$396	24 Jul 2026	21d left	+$0.07/sh	+$65 cycle +$1,028 [-$794…+$277] · 35% credit	79% surv 75%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	24 Jul 2026	21d left	-$0.98/sh	-$882 cycle +$81 [-$1,971…-$752] · 9% credit	83% surv 81%
budget: banked $963 debit $882 (92% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$81 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,193/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,815/mo
vs 50% target ($7,096/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($14,192/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$236/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $380 is $129 below CC-SS $509: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$115,423
… as % of IC ($136,000)	84.9%
… as % of ML ($224,000)	51.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.1 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-113,302

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.07 collected) or spot ≥ $381.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $414.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $376-381.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $381.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$380.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$963	$-115,422	+$10,414	+$954
+2.5%	$389.50 (1.7σ)	$-7,587	$-115,422	+$10,414	-$7,596
+5%	$399.00 (2.5σ)	$-16,137	$-115,422	+$10,414	-$16,146
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.5σ)	$-67,437	$-115,522	+$10,314	-$66,546

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $509.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-125,836

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,836

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $380): -$115,423

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $455): -$5,431

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-120,854 (+$4,982 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-54,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,546, the opportunity cost of earning $4,815/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $423.89 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$38,538, position total $-115,422 (+$10,414 vs today)

100% normal · sell 10×$373, 0.9% OTM, 62% surv

Sell 10 × $373 0.9% OTM over spot $369.50 6 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.98 mid)

= $2,860 credit for the 6d cycle → $14,300/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $373)

62%

Breach risk

38%

POP (stays ≤ $375.98)

72%

EV / mo

+$2,815

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

38%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$416

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$402 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $4.63/sh now → $3.28 mid-life (likely $4.25–$6.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,818 simulated challenges: the $373 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $376 (overshoots $3.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$373	8 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.91/sh	+$912 cycle +$3,772 [+$709…+$873] · 100% credit	65% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$382	24 Jul 2026	21d left	+$1.57/sh	+$1,565 cycle +$4,425 [+$546…+$1,208] · 91% credit	74% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$374	8 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.30/sh	+$303 cycle +$3,163 [-$51…+$168] · 67% credit	68% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$388	24 Jul 2026	21d left	+$0.10/sh	+$101 cycle +$2,961 [-$1,286…-$379] · 14% credit	79% surv 74%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	24 Jul 2026	21d left	-$2.18/sh	-$2,179 cycle +$681 [-$4,381…-$2,935]	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $2,860 debit $2,179 (76% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$681 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,567/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$14,300/mo
vs 50% target ($7,096/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($14,192/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,718/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $373 is $136 below CC-SS $509: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$133,458
… as % of IC ($136,000)	98.1%
… as % of ML ($224,000)	59.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-125,956

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.86 collected) or spot ≥ $375.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $373)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $414.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $369.27	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $369-375.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $375.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$373.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,860	$-119,826	+$6,010	+$2,850
+2.5%	$382.32 (1.1σ)	$-6,465	$-120,759	+$5,078	-$6,475
+5%	$391.65 (1.9σ)	$-15,790	$-121,691	+$4,145	-$15,800
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.5σ)	$-80,140	$-128,126	-$2,290	-$79,150

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $509.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-125,836

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,836

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $373): -$133,458

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-133,458 ($-7,622 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-54,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-79,150, the opportunity cost of earning $14,300/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $423.89 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$48,030, position total $-124,915 (+$921 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 10×$381, 3.1% OTM, 84% surv

Sell 10 × $381 3.1% OTM over spot $369.50 6 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.96 mid)

= $920 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $381)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $381.96)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,801

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)

Challenge odds

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,571

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 82% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $4.94/sh now → $3.49 mid-life (likely $3.15–$5.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 707 simulated challenges: the $381 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $384 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$381	8 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.97/sh	+$971 cycle +$1,891 [+$857…+$1,282] · 100% credit	65% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$390	24 Jul 2026	21d left	+$1.88/sh	+$1,884 cycle +$2,804 [+$1,326…+$2,469] · 98% credit	73% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$382	8 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.36/sh	+$363 cycle +$1,283 [+$133…+$518] · 86% credit	67% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$396	24 Jul 2026	21d left	+$0.10/sh	+$104 cycle +$1,024 [-$762…+$523] · 43% credit	79% surv 74%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	24 Jul 2026	21d left	-$0.77/sh	-$771 cycle +$149 [-$1,816…-$387] · 16% credit	82% surv 79%
budget: banked $920 debit $771 (84% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$149 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,886/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,600/mo
vs 50% target ($7,096/mo)	-35%
vs normal income ($14,192/mo)	32% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$18/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $381 is $128 below CC-SS $509: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$127,398
… as % of IC ($136,000)	93.7%
… as % of ML ($224,000)	56.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-125,876

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $381.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $381)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $414.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $377.19	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $377-381.96	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $381.96	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$381.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$920	$-114,566	+$11,270	+$910
+2.5%	$390.52 (1.8σ)	$-8,605	$-115,519	+$10,318	-$8,615
+5%	$400.05 (2.6σ)	$-18,130	$-116,471	+$9,365	-$18,140
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.5σ)	$-74,080	$-122,066	+$3,770	-$73,090

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $509.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-125,836

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$125,836

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $381): -$127,398

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-127,398 ($-1,562 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-54,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-73,090, the opportunity cost of earning $4,600/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $423.89 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$41,970, position total $-118,855 (+$6,981 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 110 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$125,836 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-54,308

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$378	6d	6 Jul 2026	$1.44	10/10	$7,200	$2,618	78%	81%	+$2,316	-$129,878	95.5%	$-129,878 (vs do-nothing $-75,570)
$377	6d	6 Jul 2026	$1.62	9/10	$7,290	$2,711	75%	79%	+$2,026	-$117,628	86.5%	$-123,059 (vs do-nothing $-68,751)
$378	8d	8 Jul 2026	$2.06	10/10	$7,725	$3,143	73%	78%	+$1,937	-$129,258	95.0%	$-129,258 (vs do-nothing $-74,950)
$379	10d	10 Jul 2026	$2.46	10/10	$7,380	$2,798	73%	79%	+$2,185	-$127,858	94.0%	$-127,858 (vs do-nothing $-73,550)
$376	6d	6 Jul 2026	$1.88	8/10	$7,520	$2,944	72%	78%	+$1,940	-$105,151	77.3%	$-116,012 (vs do-nothing $-61,704)
$377	8d	8 Jul 2026	$2.33	9/10	$7,864	$3,285	71%	77%	+$1,848	-$116,989	86.0%	$-122,420 (vs do-nothing $-68,112)
$378	10d	10 Jul 2026	$2.72	9/10	$7,344	$2,765	71%	77%	+$1,802	-$115,738	85.1%	$-121,169 (vs do-nothing $-66,861)
$375	6d	6 Jul 2026	$2.18	7/10	$7,630	$3,057	69%	76%	+$1,833	-$92,497	68.0%	$-108,789 (vs do-nothing $-54,481)
$377	10d	10 Jul 2026	$3.00	8/10	$7,200	$2,624	69%	75%	+$1,620	-$103,455	76.1%	$-114,316 (vs do-nothing $-60,008)
$376	8d	8 Jul 2026	$2.63	8/10	$7,890	$3,314	68%	75%	+$1,738	-$104,551	76.9%	$-115,412 (vs do-nothing $-61,104)
$377	13d	13 Jul 2026	$3.30	10/10	$7,615	$3,034	67%	75%	+$1,311	-$129,018	94.9%	$-129,018 (vs do-nothing $-74,710)
$378	17d	17 Jul 2026	$4.30	10/10	$7,588	$3,007	67%	74%	+$1,826	-$127,018	93.4%	$-127,018 (vs do-nothing $-72,710)
$376	10d	10 Jul 2026	$3.35	8/10	$8,040	$3,464	67%	74%	+$1,998	-$103,975	76.5%	$-114,836 (vs do-nothing $-60,528)

Show 97 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 97.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$375	8d	8 Jul 2026	$2.96	7/10	$7,770	$3,197	66%	74%	+$1,600	-$91,951	67.6%	$-108,243 (vs do-nothing $-53,935)
$377	15d	15 Jul 2026	$3.85	10/10	$7,695	$3,113	66%	73%	+$1,226	-$128,471	94.5%	$-128,471 (vs do-nothing $-74,162)
$374	6d	6 Jul 2026	$2.50	6/10	$7,500	$2,930	66%	74%	+$1,632	-$79,691	58.6%	$-101,414 (vs do-nothing $-47,106)
$376	13d	13 Jul 2026	$3.65	9/10	$7,581	$3,002	65%	73%	+$1,210	-$116,701	85.8%	$-122,132 (vs do-nothing $-67,824)
$377	17d	17 Jul 2026	$4.65	9/10	$7,385	$2,807	65%	73%	+$1,675	-$114,901	84.5%	$-120,332 (vs do-nothing $-66,024)
$375	10d	10 Jul 2026	$3.70	7/10	$7,770	$3,197	64%	73%	+$1,824	-$91,433	67.2%	$-107,725 (vs do-nothing $-53,417)
$376	15d	15 Jul 2026	$4.17	9/10	$7,507	$2,928	64%	72%	+$1,108	-$116,233	85.5%	$-121,664 (vs do-nothing $-67,356)
$374	8d	8 Jul 2026	$3.05	7/10	$8,006	$3,434	63%	73%	+$962	-$92,588	68.1%	$-108,880 (vs do-nothing $-54,572)
$376	17d	17 Jul 2026	$5.00	9/10	$7,941	$3,363	63%	72%	+$1,669	-$115,486	84.9%	$-120,917 (vs do-nothing $-66,609)
$377	24d	24 Jul 2026	$5.90	10/10	$7,375	$2,793	63%	72%	+$1,609	-$126,418	93.0%	$-126,418 (vs do-nothing $-72,110)
$375	13d	13 Jul 2026	$4.05	8/10	$7,477	$2,901	63%	72%	+$1,146	-$104,215	76.6%	$-115,076 (vs do-nothing $-60,768)
$373	6d	6 Jul 2026	$2.86	5/10	$7,150	$2,583	62%	72%	+$1,408	-$66,729	49.1%	$-93,883 (vs do-nothing $-39,575)
$374	10d	10 Jul 2026	$4.05	6/10	$7,290	$2,720	62%	72%	+$1,578	-$78,761	57.9%	$-100,484 (vs do-nothing $-46,176)
$375	15d	15 Jul 2026	$4.55	8/10	$7,281	$2,705	62%	71%	+$1,043	-$103,814	76.3%	$-114,676 (vs do-nothing $-60,368)
$376	24d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	10/10	$7,812	$3,231	61%	71%	+$1,591	-$127,068	93.4%	$-127,068 (vs do-nothing $-72,760)
$375	17d	17 Jul 2026	$5.40	8/10	$7,624	$3,048	61%	71%	+$1,513	-$103,135	75.8%	$-113,996 (vs do-nothing $-59,688)
$374	13d	13 Jul 2026	$4.05	8/10	$7,477	$2,901	60%	70%	+$429	-$105,015	77.2%	$-115,876 (vs do-nothing $-61,568)
$373	8d	8 Jul 2026	$3.60	6/10	$8,100	$3,530	60%	71%	+$1,236	-$79,631	58.6%	$-101,354 (vs do-nothing $-47,046)
$374	15d	15 Jul 2026	$4.95	8/10	$7,919	$3,344	60%	70%	+$1,094	-$104,295	76.7%	$-115,157 (vs do-nothing $-60,848)
$375	24d	24 Jul 2026	$6.70	9/10	$7,538	$2,959	59%	70%	+$1,503	-$114,856	84.5%	$-120,287 (vs do-nothing $-65,979)
$373	10d	10 Jul 2026	$4.45	6/10	$8,010	$3,440	59%	70%	+$1,630	-$79,121	58.2%	$-100,844 (vs do-nothing $-46,536)
$374	17d	17 Jul 2026	$5.80	7/10	$7,165	$2,592	59%	70%	+$1,319	-$90,663	66.7%	$-106,955 (vs do-nothing $-52,647)
$372	6d	6 Jul 2026	$3.25	5/10	$8,125	$3,558	59%	70%	+$1,423	-$67,034	49.3%	$-94,188 (vs do-nothing $-39,880)
$373	13d	13 Jul 2026	$4.80	7/10	$7,754	$3,181	58%	70%	+$916	-$92,063	67.7%	$-108,355 (vs do-nothing $-54,047)
$374	24d	24 Jul 2026	$7.10	8/10	$7,100	$2,524	58%	69%	+$1,328	-$102,575	75.4%	$-113,436 (vs do-nothing $-59,128)
$373	15d	15 Jul 2026	$5.35	7/10	$7,488	$2,915	58%	69%	+$968	-$91,679	67.4%	$-107,971 (vs do-nothing $-53,663)
$372	8d	8 Jul 2026	$4.10	5/10	$7,687	$3,121	57%	69%	+$1,212	-$66,609	49.0%	$-93,763 (vs do-nothing $-39,455)
$373	17d	17 Jul 2026	$6.25	7/10	$7,721	$3,148	57%	69%	+$1,345	-$91,048	66.9%	$-107,340 (vs do-nothing $-53,032)
$372	10d	10 Jul 2026	$4.90	5/10	$7,350	$2,783	57%	69%	+$1,432	-$66,209	48.7%	$-93,363 (vs do-nothing $-39,055)
$373	24d	24 Jul 2026	$7.55	8/10	$7,550	$2,974	56%	68%	+$1,349	-$103,015	75.7%	$-113,876 (vs do-nothing $-59,568)
$372	13d	13 Jul 2026	$4.90	7/10	$7,915	$3,343	56%	68%	+$365	-$92,693	68.2%	$-108,985 (vs do-nothing $-54,677)
$372	15d	15 Jul 2026	$5.77	7/10	$8,073	$3,501	55%	68%	+$971	-$92,086	67.7%	$-108,379 (vs do-nothing $-54,070)
$371	6d	6 Jul 2026	$3.70	4/10	$7,400	$2,836	55%	68%	+$1,182	-$53,847	39.6%	$-86,432 (vs do-nothing $-32,124)
$372	17d	17 Jul 2026	$6.70	7/10	$8,276	$3,704	55%	68%	+$1,340	-$91,433	67.2%	$-107,725 (vs do-nothing $-53,417)
$371	8d	8 Jul 2026	$4.55	5/10	$8,531	$3,965	54%	68%	+$1,232	-$66,884	49.2%	$-94,038 (vs do-nothing $-39,730)
$372	24d	24 Jul 2026	$8.00	8/10	$8,000	$3,424	54%	68%	+$1,347	-$103,455	76.1%	$-114,316 (vs do-nothing $-60,008)
$371	10d	10 Jul 2026	$5.35	5/10	$8,025	$3,458	54%	68%	+$1,461	-$66,484	48.9%	$-93,638 (vs do-nothing $-39,330)
$371	13d	13 Jul 2026	$5.35	6/10	$7,408	$2,838	53%	67%	+$289	-$79,781	58.7%	$-101,504 (vs do-nothing $-47,196)
$371	15d	15 Jul 2026	$6.24	6/10	$7,490	$2,920	53%	67%	+$873	-$79,246	58.3%	$-100,969 (vs do-nothing $-46,661)
$371	17d	17 Jul 2026	$7.20	6/10	$7,624	$3,054	53%	67%	+$1,172	-$78,671	57.8%	$-100,394 (vs do-nothing $-46,086)
$371	24d	24 Jul 2026	$8.50	7/10	$7,438	$2,865	53%	67%	+$1,202	-$90,873	66.8%	$-107,165 (vs do-nothing $-52,857)
$370	6d	6 Jul 2026	$4.15	4/10	$8,300	$3,736	52%	66%	+$1,135	-$54,067	39.8%	$-86,652 (vs do-nothing $-32,344)
$370	8d	8 Jul 2026	$5.05	4/10	$7,575	$3,011	51%	66%	+$1,022	-$53,707	39.5%	$-86,292 (vs do-nothing $-31,984)
$370	10d	10 Jul 2026	$5.85	5/10	$8,775	$4,208	51%	67%	+$1,518	-$66,734	49.1%	$-93,888 (vs do-nothing $-39,580)
$370	13d	13 Jul 2026	$6.20	5/10	$7,154	$2,587	51%	66%	+$652	-$66,559	48.9%	$-93,713 (vs do-nothing $-39,405)
$370	15d	15 Jul 2026	$6.72	6/10	$8,060	$3,490	51%	66%	+$884	-$79,561	58.5%	$-101,284 (vs do-nothing $-46,976)
$370	17d	17 Jul 2026	$7.70	6/10	$8,153	$3,583	51%	66%	+$1,168	-$78,971	58.1%	$-100,694 (vs do-nothing $-46,386)
$370	24d	24 Jul 2026	$9.00	7/10	$7,875	$3,302	51%	66%	+$1,206	-$91,223	67.1%	$-107,515 (vs do-nothing $-53,207)
$369	24d	24 Jul 2026	$9.55	6/10	$7,162	$2,593	49%	65%	+$1,058	-$78,461	57.7%	$-100,184 (vs do-nothing $-45,876)
$369	17d	17 Jul 2026	$8.20	5/10	$7,235	$2,669	49%	65%	+$950	-$66,059	48.6%	$-93,213 (vs do-nothing $-38,905)
$369	15d	15 Jul 2026	$7.20	5/10	$7,201	$2,634	49%	65%	+$730	-$66,559	48.9%	$-93,713 (vs do-nothing $-39,404)
$369	13d	13 Jul 2026	$6.65	5/10	$7,673	$3,107	49%	65%	+$572	-$66,834	49.1%	$-93,988 (vs do-nothing $-39,680)
$369	10d	10 Jul 2026	$6.35	4/10	$7,620	$3,056	49%	65%	+$1,223	-$53,587	39.4%	$-86,172 (vs do-nothing $-31,864)
$369	8d	8 Jul 2026	$5.24	4/10	$7,866	$3,302	49%	65%	+$673	-$54,030	39.7%	$-86,615 (vs do-nothing $-32,306)
$369	6d	6 Jul 2026	$4.29	4/10	$8,588	$4,024	48%	63%	+$212	-$54,410	40.0%	$-86,995 (vs do-nothing $-32,686)
$368	24d	24 Jul 2026	$10.05	6/10	$7,538	$2,968	47%	64%	+$1,029	-$78,761	57.9%	$-100,484 (vs do-nothing $-46,176)
$368	17d	17 Jul 2026	$8.75	5/10	$7,721	$3,154	47%	64%	+$949	-$66,284	48.7%	$-93,438 (vs do-nothing $-39,130)
$368	15d	15 Jul 2026	$7.72	5/10	$7,724	$3,157	47%	64%	+$735	-$66,797	49.1%	$-93,951 (vs do-nothing $-39,643)
$368	13d	13 Jul 2026	$7.15	5/10	$8,250	$3,683	47%	64%	+$520	-$67,084	49.3%	$-94,238 (vs do-nothing $-39,930)
$368	10d	10 Jul 2026	$6.95	4/10	$8,340	$3,776	46%	64%	+$1,313	-$53,747	39.5%	$-86,332 (vs do-nothing $-32,024)

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v5.0 | 2026-06-30 15:58