FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $88.11

SS: $108.93  |  10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  2026-04-25 01:50

NOW @ $88.11   UNDERWATER $20.82 (19.1% below SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  SS: $108.93  |  IV: HIGH

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)
SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)
HP: $105 exp 2026-06-18 (entry $7.369/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$32,850(ND $27.85 + SW $5) x 1000
Normal income ref$2,601/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$2,728/mo
Unrealized P&L$-14,691fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALS
FLOOR $2,728/mo · cover hedge bleed
TARGET $2,601/mo · match normal income (95% ann ROI on ML)
TRADE RECOMMENDATION (match normal income)
Sell 5: NOW $89 call (exp 1 May 2026, 6d DTE, ~$2.40 bid)
Keep 5: $109 CC (~$0.20 bid)
Net income: $3,503/mo (target $2,601 · floor $2,728)
Survival: 55%
EV: +$1,270/mo (+$254/cycle · vs $0/mo for do-nothing · assumes realized vol = IV × 85%)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $108.93 by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,691
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,890
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $89): -$8,765
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $109): +$100
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,466 (+$225 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,601 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,865 — the opportunity cost of earning $3,272/mo income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every strike × expiry in the 5-14 DTE band (2 expiry / expiries in 5-14 DTE band). ★ = recommended pick. Contracts-to-match recomputed per row.

Fortress delta: 0.427 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$8,890 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellNet Inc/moEV /moSurvivalCC Assignment Cost @ SSDo Nothing @ SSTotal Position P&L @ SS
$936d1 May 2026$1.0510/10$2,522+$1,85476%-$14,880$-5,601$-20,681 ($-5,990 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-15,080)
$9313d8 May 2026$2.2510/10$2,464+$1,58469%-$13,680$-5,601$-19,481 ($-4,790 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-13,880)
$916d1 May 2026$1.607/10$3,011+$1,50767%-$11,431$-5,601$-17,172 ($-2,481 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-11,571)
$9113d8 May 2026$2.908/10$2,718+$1,32261%-$12,024$-5,601$-17,785 ($-3,094 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-12,184)
$906d1 May 2026$2.006/10$3,457+$1,50361%-$10,158$-5,601$-15,879 ($-1,188 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-10,278)
$9013d8 May 2026$3.307/10$2,741+$1,20258%-$10,941$-5,601$-16,682 ($-1,991 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-11,081)
$896d1 May 2026$2.405/10$3,503+$1,27055%-$8,765$-5,601$-14,466 (+$225 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-8,865)
$8913d8 May 2026$3.707/10$3,388+$1,17554%-$11,361$-5,601$-17,102 ($-2,411 vs today) (vs do-nothing $-11,501)

* = target unreachable with 10 contracts. Rows sorted by survival (desc). Net Inc/mo = deterministic best case (assumes 100% survival). EV /mo = probability-weighted monthly edge: premium − E[buyback] scaled monthly. Uses realized vol = IV × 85% (variance risk premium = 15%). Do-nothing EV/mo on FIGHT leg is $0 by definition — positive here means this trade beats passive over many cycles. CC Assignment Cost @ SS = damage on short calls at SS. Do Nothing @ SS = absolute P&L if you keep all 10 at conservative CC, no FIGHT. Total Position P&L @ SS = absolute P&L of this trade at SS. "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost on a V-bounce.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income refTarget monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
Hedge rolling costMonthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
FIGHT CCShort-dated, near-ATM covered call for income recovery
Conservative CCStandard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater)
Cover hedgeMin FIGHT contracts to pay for the hedge rolling cost
Match normalFIGHT contracts needed to reach normal income target
Gap/ctNet gap risk per contract: (SS - strike - bid) x 100. Max loss if stock rallies to SS, net of premium received.
Gap@HedgeTotal gap risk at cover-hedge contract count
Gap@MatchTotal gap risk at match-normal contract count
Net@MatchMonthly income after hedge cost at match-normal level
fortress_fight.py v1.1  |  2026-04-25 01:50