FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $101.82

SS: $108.93 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | 2026-06-29 23:15 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $101.82 UNDERWATER $7.11 (6.5% below SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | SS: $108.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

Economics

Normal income ref	$10,091/mo
Hedge rolling cost	$628/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-16,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,045/mo

HEDGE COVER
$628/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$10,091/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at SS $109 still earns $4,091/mo (41% of normal). Sell the normal CC at SS; a FIGHT CC below SS is not needed here.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 44 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $123.41 (+21%) · daily UBB $123.40 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK — safest strike covering 50% of normal

Sell 10 × $107 10 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.00 bid / $2.10 mid)

Survival (stays ≤ $107)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $109.10)

75%

EV / mo

+$921

Gross FIGHT income	$5,455/mo
vs 50% target ($5,045/mo)	+8%
vs normal target ($10,091/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,827/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($0)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-16,300
… cuts bleed by	-$628/mo

✓ Highest-survival strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns $5,045/mo (max of the hedge cost and 50% of normal income), sized across your 10 contracts. IV 60% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~32% · flat exit -$972 net · free roll-up ≈ +$3/wk

Challenge odds

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$972

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$140 @ 91%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $109.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $123.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $105.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $106-109.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $109.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$107.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,000	$-8,212	+$7,988	+$500
+2.5%	$109.67 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-675	$-7,795	+$8,405	-$1,500
+5%	$112.35 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-3,350	$-7,377	+$8,823	-$1,500

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.20/sh now → $2.97 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$107	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.29/sh	+$1,294 cycle +$3,294	62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$110	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.27/sh	+$268 cycle +$2,268	71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$121	31 Jul 2026	26d left	+$0.18/sh	+$184 cycle +$2,184	79%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$140	7 Aug 2026	34d left	-$1.80/sh	-$1,804 cycle +$196	91%
budget: banked $2,000 debit $1,804 (90% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$196 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,031/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-FIGHT · clears SS ✓

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($107) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 75% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 0 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 10 calls lose.

📊 Income ladder — how much safety each dollar costs

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your contracts. Safest at the top. Going down the ladder buys income by selling a lower, more-often-breached strike. 🎯 is the primary (safest strike covering 50% of normal income). Cap @ SS is the recovery you mortgage only on a full V-bounce to SS.

Income rung	Trade	BB zone	Expiry	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC
cover hedge	10 × $123 / 11d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	94%	6%	$682	$54	-$0	0%
🎯 50% normal	10 × $107 / 11d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	68%	32%	$5,455	$4,827	-$0	0%
100% normal	10 × $102 / 11d	LBB-MBB	10 Jul 2026	51%	49%	$10,091	$9,463	-$3,230	0%

⚔ Face-off if challenged · 🛡 SAFEST vs 🎯 PRIMARY vs 💰 RICHEST

	🛡 SAFEST	🎯 PRIMARY	💰 RICHEST
Trade	10 × $123 / 11d	10 × $107 / 11d	10 × $102 / 11d
POP this week (from today)	94%	75%	65%
Challenge means spot ≥	$123 (+20.8%)	$107 (+5.1%)	$102 (+0.2%)
Odds of that challenge	~6%	~32%	~49%
Premium banked	$250	$2,000	$3,700
Flat exit net (mid-life)	-$3,167	-$972	+$867
Free roll-up speed	+$3/wk	+$3/wk	+$3/wk
Safest escape if challenged	$139 @ 78% 31 Jul 2026 · 26d left at challenge	$140 @ 91% 7 Aug 2026 · 34d left at challenge	$130 @ 91% 31 Jul 2026 · 26d left at challenge
Cycle cash floor (worst door)	-$3,167	-$972	+$867
Cap give-up if held to SS	-$0 (0.0% IC)	-$0 (0.0% IC)	-$3,230 (0.0% IC)

Same playbook engine run on each anchor. Higher strikes need a bigger rally before they are even threatened, and by then the fortress has gained more on the way up; the price is the cap give-up row if the rally keeps going. Cycle cash floor = banked premium plus the worst door in that anchor's roll menu (flat exit or safety roll), the most the whole challenged cycle can cost in cash. Estimates from today's chain, mid-life timing.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 10 contracts at $107 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 68%, breach 32%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,045/mo); it brings $5,455/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $102/11d for $10,091/mo, but breach risk rises to 49% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $123/11d (94% survival, $682/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $109, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-16,300 and cuts bleed by $628/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $108.93 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,219

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $107): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,981 (+$8,219 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,481 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,500, the opportunity cost of earning $5,455/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.156 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,219 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,481

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$107	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.00	10/10	$5,455	$4,827	68%	75%	+$921	-$0	0.0%	$-7,911 (vs do-nothing $-1,430)
$106	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.25	9/10	$5,523	$5,304	65%	73%	+$772	-$612	0.0%	$-8,443 (vs do-nothing $-1,962)
$109	25d	24 Jul 2026	$4.30	10/10	$5,160	$4,532	65%	74%	+$1,099	-$0	0.0%	$-3,681 (vs do-nothing +$2,800)
$108	25d	24 Jul 2026	$4.70	9/10	$5,076	$4,857	63%	73%	+$1,086	-$0	0.0%	$-4,438 (vs do-nothing +$2,043)
$106	18d	17 Jul 2026	$3.30	10/10	$5,500	$4,872	62%	71%	+$771	-$0	0.0%	$-7,611 (vs do-nothing $-1,130)
$105	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.60	8/10	$5,673	$5,863	62%	71%	+$771	-$1,064	0.0%	$-8,745 (vs do-nothing $-2,264)
$108	32d	31 Jul 2026	$5.40	10/10	$5,062	$4,435	61%	71%	+$726	-$0	0.0%	$-3,511 (vs do-nothing +$2,970)
$107	25d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	9/10	$5,400	$5,181	61%	72%	+$1,052	-$0	0.0%	$-5,068 (vs do-nothing +$1,413)
$107	32d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	10/10	$5,438	$4,810	60%	70%	+$788	-$0	0.0%	$-4,111 (vs do-nothing +$2,370)
$105	18d	17 Jul 2026	$3.70	9/10	$5,550	$5,331	59%	69%	+$780	-$207	0.0%	$-8,038 (vs do-nothing $-1,557)
$106	25d	24 Jul 2026	$5.30	8/10	$5,088	$5,278	59%	70%	+$883	-$0	0.0%	$-5,785 (vs do-nothing +$696)
$104	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.90	7/10	$5,536	$6,136	58%	69%	+$576	-$1,421	0.0%	$-8,952 (vs do-nothing $-2,471)
$106	32d	31 Jul 2026	$6.10	9/10	$5,147	$4,928	58%	69%	+$664	-$0	0.0%	$-4,978 (vs do-nothing +$1,503)

Show 27 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$105	25d	24 Jul 2026	$5.70	8/10	$5,472	$5,662	57%	69%	+$904	-$0	0.0%	$-6,265 (vs do-nothing +$216)
$104	18d	17 Jul 2026	$4.00	8/10	$5,333	$5,524	56%	68%	+$592	-$744	0.0%	$-8,425 (vs do-nothing $-1,944)
$105	32d	31 Jul 2026	$6.50	9/10	$5,484	$5,266	56%	68%	+$686	-$0	0.0%	$-5,518 (vs do-nothing +$963)
$105	39d	7 Aug 2026	$6.60	10/10	$5,077	$4,449	55%	67%	+$206	-$0	0.0%	$-5,311 (vs do-nothing +$1,170)
$104	25d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	7/10	$5,124	$5,723	55%	67%	+$789	-$0	0.0%	$-6,712 (vs do-nothing $-231)
$103	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.30	6/10	$5,400	$6,408	54%	67%	+$502	-$1,578	0.0%	$-8,959 (vs do-nothing $-2,478)
$104	32d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	8/10	$5,175	$5,365	54%	67%	+$613	-$0	0.0%	$-6,105 (vs do-nothing +$376)
$104	39d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	10/10	$5,385	$4,757	54%	67%	+$210	-$0	0.0%	$-5,911 (vs do-nothing +$570)
$103	18d	17 Jul 2026	$4.40	7/10	$5,133	$5,733	54%	66%	+$507	-$1,071	0.0%	$-8,602 (vs do-nothing $-2,121)
$103	25d	24 Jul 2026	$6.40	7/10	$5,376	$5,975	53%	67%	+$518	-$0	0.0%	$-7,202 (vs do-nothing $-721)
$103	32d	31 Jul 2026	$7.30	8/10	$5,475	$5,665	52%	66%	+$599	-$0	0.0%	$-6,585 (vs do-nothing $-104)
$103	39d	7 Aug 2026	$7.50	9/10	$5,192	$4,973	52%	66%	+$250	-$0	0.0%	$-6,418 (vs do-nothing +$63)
$102	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.70	5/10	$5,045	$6,463	51%	65%	+$363	-$1,615	0.0%	$-8,846 (vs do-nothing $-2,365)
$102	18d	17 Jul 2026	$4.80	7/10	$5,600	$6,199	51%	65%	+$455	-$1,491	0.0%	$-9,022 (vs do-nothing $-2,541)
$102	25d	24 Jul 2026	$6.90	7/10	$5,796	$6,395	50%	65%	+$563	-$21	0.0%	$-7,552 (vs do-nothing $-1,071)
$102	32d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	7/10	$5,053	$5,652	50%	65%	+$497	-$0	0.0%	$-6,992 (vs do-nothing $-511)
$102	39d	7 Aug 2026	$7.80	9/10	$5,400	$5,181	50%	66%	+$158	-$0	0.0%	$-7,048 (vs do-nothing $-567)
$101	39d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	10/10	$5,462	$4,834	49%	64%	$-710	-$830	0.0%	$-8,811 (vs do-nothing $-2,330)
$101	32d	31 Jul 2026	$8.10	7/10	$5,316	$5,915	48%	65%	+$455	-$0	0.0%	$-7,412 (vs do-nothing $-931)
$101	25d	24 Jul 2026	$7.10	6/10	$5,112	$6,120	48%	65%	+$286	-$498	0.0%	$-7,879 (vs do-nothing $-1,398)
$101	18d	17 Jul 2026	$5.20	6/10	$5,200	$6,208	48%	63%	+$310	-$1,638	0.0%	$-9,019 (vs do-nothing $-2,538)
$101	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.10	5/10	$5,591	$7,008	47%	63%	+$243	-$1,915	0.0%	$-9,146 (vs do-nothing $-2,665)
$100	39d	7 Aug 2026	$8.80	8/10	$5,415	$5,606	47%	63%	+$188	-$104	0.0%	$-7,785 (vs do-nothing $-1,304)
$100	32d	31 Jul 2026	$8.60	7/10	$5,644	$6,243	46%	63%	+$463	-$231	0.0%	$-7,762 (vs do-nothing $-1,281)
$100	25d	24 Jul 2026	$7.90	6/10	$5,688	$6,696	46%	63%	+$502	-$618	0.0%	$-7,999 (vs do-nothing $-1,518)
$100	18d	17 Jul 2026	$5.70	6/10	$5,700	$6,708	44%	62%	+$292	-$1,938	0.0%	$-9,319 (vs do-nothing $-2,838)
$100	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.60	5/10	$6,273	$7,690	43%	61%	+$194	-$2,165	0.0%	$-9,396 (vs do-nothing $-2,915)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v5.0 | 2026-06-29 23:15