FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $763.42

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $698.82 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $763.42 UNDERWATER $0.58 (0.1% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $698.82 (banked floor $695.11) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$22,811/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$62,646	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$11,405/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$22,811/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
6.5 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
6.5 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $698.82 (probe: $749C 11d) still earns $10,375/mo (45% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$3,323

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,252

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$698.82 → $695.11

⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 12x $750C 20260731 on 2026-08-03. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $795C 31 Aug 2026	U13190865	$1.04	$1,252	2026-08-13

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 63 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 53 · %B 47 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $779.26 (+2%) · daily UBB $788.62 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $698.82 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $775 18 Sep 2026 (25d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $775)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$6,012

Income / mo

$7,214

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $772 28 Aug 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $772)

82%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$1,524

Income / mo

$11,430

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.78/sh now → $3.38 mid-life (likely $3.40–$5.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 697 simulated challenges: the $772 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $775 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$772	31 Aug 2026	5d left	+$1.00/sh	+$1,198 cycle +$2,722 [+$503…+$1,511] · 87% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$773	31 Aug 2026	5d left	+$0.67/sh	+$807 cycle +$2,331 [+$5…+$1,061] · 75% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$774	31 Aug 2026	5d left	+$0.14/sh	+$168 cycle +$1,692 [-$889…+$310] · 38% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$787	18 Sep 2026	23d left	+$0.02/sh	+$29 cycle +$1,553 [-$2,081…+$162] · 28% credit	80% surv 75%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$792	18 Sep 2026	23d left	-$1.26/sh	-$1,513 cycle +$11 [-$3,973…-$1,498] · 3% credit	84% surv 82%
budget: banked $1,524 debit $1,513 (99% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,316/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $793 18 Sep 2026 (25d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $793)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,080

Income / mo

$1,296

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (164 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 164 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.837 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $69,990

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$772	4d	28 Aug 2026	$1.27	12/12	$11,430	$11,430	82%	86%	+$6,468	-$0	0.0%	$64,170 (vs do-nothing $-5,820)
$771	4d	28 Aug 2026	$1.53	10/12	$11,475	$15,147	80%	84%	+$6,206	-$0	0.0%	$65,400 (vs do-nothing $-4,590)
$770	4d	28 Aug 2026	$1.82	9/12	$12,285	$17,793	76%	82%	+$6,308	-$0	0.0%	$66,120 (vs do-nothing $-3,870)
$769	4d	28 Aug 2026	$2.15	8/12	$12,900	$20,244	73%	80%	+$6,278	-$0	0.0%	$66,814 (vs do-nothing $-3,176)
$770	7d	31 Aug 2026	$2.28	12/12	$11,726	$11,726	71%	77%	+$3,171	-$0	0.0%	$65,382 (vs do-nothing $-4,608)
$768	4d	28 Aug 2026	$2.52	7/12	$13,230	$22,410	69%	78%	+$6,084	-$0	0.0%	$67,470 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$770	9d	2 Sep 2026	$2.93	12/12	$11,720	$11,720	69%	76%	+$3,203	-$0	0.0%	$66,162 (vs do-nothing $-3,828)
$769	7d	31 Aug 2026	$2.64	11/12	$12,446	$14,282	68%	75%	+$3,297	-$0	0.0%	$66,162 (vs do-nothing $-3,828)
$770	10d	3 Sep 2026	$3.26	12/12	$11,736	$11,736	68%	75%	+$3,280	-$0	0.0%	$66,558 (vs do-nothing $-3,432)
$770	11d	4 Sep 2026	$3.79	12/12	$12,404	$12,404	67%	75%	+$3,770	-$0	0.0%	$67,194 (vs do-nothing $-2,796)
$769	9d	2 Sep 2026	$3.32	11/12	$12,173	$14,009	66%	75%	+$3,688	-$0	0.0%	$66,910 (vs do-nothing $-3,080)
$767	4d	28 Aug 2026	$2.93	6/12	$13,185	$24,201	65%	76%	+$5,710	-$0	0.0%	$68,076 (vs do-nothing $-1,914)
$769	10d	3 Sep 2026	$3.66	11/12	$12,078	$13,914	65%	74%	+$3,305	-$0	0.0%	$67,284 (vs do-nothing $-2,706)

Show 151 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 151.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$768	7d	31 Aug 2026	$3.04	9/12	$11,726	$17,234	65%	74%	+$3,044	-$0	0.0%	$67,218 (vs do-nothing $-2,772)
$769	11d	4 Sep 2026	$4.22	10/12	$11,509	$15,181	64%	74%	+$3,309	-$0	0.0%	$68,090 (vs do-nothing $-1,900)
$768	9d	2 Sep 2026	$3.75	10/12	$12,500	$16,172	63%	73%	+$3,525	-$0	0.0%	$67,620 (vs do-nothing $-2,370)
$768	10d	3 Sep 2026	$4.10	10/12	$12,300	$15,972	63%	73%	+$3,310	-$0	0.0%	$67,970 (vs do-nothing $-2,020)
$767	7d	31 Aug 2026	$3.47	8/12	$11,897	$19,241	62%	72%	+$2,998	-$0	0.0%	$67,870 (vs do-nothing $-2,120)
$768	11d	4 Sep 2026	$4.68	9/12	$11,487	$16,995	62%	72%	+$3,131	-$0	0.0%	$68,694 (vs do-nothing $-1,296)
$769	18d	11 Sep 2026	$5.98	12/12	$11,960	$11,960	62%	72%	+$3,342	-$0	0.0%	$69,822 (vs do-nothing $-168)
$767	9d	2 Sep 2026	$4.21	9/12	$12,630	$18,138	61%	72%	+$3,305	-$0	0.0%	$68,271 (vs do-nothing $-1,719)
$767	10d	3 Sep 2026	$4.58	9/12	$12,366	$17,874	60%	72%	+$3,281	-$0	0.0%	$68,604 (vs do-nothing $-1,386)
$766	4d	28 Aug 2026	$3.38	5/12	$12,675	$25,527	60%	72%	+$3,489	-$0	0.0%	$68,620 (vs do-nothing $-1,370)
$768	18d	11 Sep 2026	$6.48	11/12	$11,880	$13,716	60%	71%	+$3,164	-$0	0.0%	$70,386 (vs do-nothing +$396)
$767	11d	4 Sep 2026	$5.17	9/12	$12,690	$18,198	59%	71%	+$3,212	-$0	0.0%	$69,135 (vs do-nothing $-855)
$766	7d	31 Aug 2026	$3.94	7/12	$11,820	$21,000	59%	71%	+$2,891	-$0	0.0%	$68,464 (vs do-nothing $-1,526)
$768	25d	18 Sep 2026	$8.20	12/12	$11,808	$11,808	58%	70%	+$2,914	-$0	0.0%	$72,486 (vs do-nothing +$2,496)
$766	9d	2 Sep 2026	$4.70	8/12	$12,533	$19,877	58%	70%	+$3,021	-$0	0.0%	$68,854 (vs do-nothing $-1,136)
$767	18d	11 Sep 2026	$7.02	10/12	$11,700	$15,372	58%	70%	+$2,954	-$0	0.0%	$70,890 (vs do-nothing +$900)
$766	10d	3 Sep 2026	$5.07	8/12	$12,168	$19,512	57%	70%	+$3,135	-$0	0.0%	$69,150 (vs do-nothing $-840)
$766	11d	4 Sep 2026	$5.69	8/12	$12,415	$19,759	57%	70%	+$3,020	-$0	0.0%	$69,646 (vs do-nothing $-344)
$767	25d	18 Sep 2026	$8.74	11/12	$11,537	$13,373	56%	70%	+$2,719	-$0	0.0%	$72,872 (vs do-nothing +$2,882)
$765	4d	28 Aug 2026	$3.88	4/12	$11,640	$26,328	56%	70%	+$2,981	-$0	0.0%	$69,094 (vs do-nothing $-896)
$766	18d	11 Sep 2026	$7.56	10/12	$12,600	$16,272	56%	69%	+$3,051	-$0	0.0%	$71,430 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)
$765	7d	31 Aug 2026	$4.45	6/12	$11,443	$22,459	55%	69%	+$2,715	-$0	0.0%	$68,988 (vs do-nothing $-1,002)
$765	9d	2 Sep 2026	$5.23	7/12	$12,203	$21,383	55%	69%	+$2,736	-$0	0.0%	$69,367 (vs do-nothing $-623)
$766	25d	18 Sep 2026	$9.29	11/12	$12,263	$14,099	55%	69%	+$2,773	-$0	0.0%	$73,477 (vs do-nothing +$3,487)
$765	10d	3 Sep 2026	$5.60	7/12	$11,760	$20,940	55%	69%	+$2,953	-$0	0.0%	$69,626 (vs do-nothing $-364)
$765	11d	4 Sep 2026	$6.23	7/12	$11,894	$21,074	54%	69%	+$2,710	-$0	0.0%	$70,067 (vs do-nothing +$77)
$765	18d	11 Sep 2026	$8.16	9/12	$12,240	$17,748	54%	69%	+$3,431	-$0	0.0%	$71,826 (vs do-nothing +$1,836)
$765	25d	18 Sep 2026	$9.86	10/12	$11,832	$15,504	53%	68%	+$2,568	-$0	0.0%	$73,730 (vs do-nothing +$3,740)
$764	4d	28 Aug 2026	$4.41	4/12	$13,230	$27,918	53%	71%	+$4,700	-$0	0.0%	$69,306 (vs do-nothing $-684)
$764	7d	31 Aug 2026	$5.00	6/12	$12,857	$23,873	52%	68%	+$2,957	-$0	0.0%	$69,318 (vs do-nothing $-672)
$764	9d	2 Sep 2026	$5.78	6/12	$11,560	$22,576	52%	68%	+$2,391	-$0	0.0%	$69,786 (vs do-nothing $-204)
$764	10d	3 Sep 2026	$6.12	7/12	$12,852	$22,032	52%	68%	+$3,074	-$0	0.0%	$69,990 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$764	11d	4 Sep 2026	$6.80	7/12	$12,982	$22,162	52%	67%	+$2,763	-$0	0.0%	$70,466 (vs do-nothing +$476)
$764	18d	11 Sep 2026	$8.74	8/12	$11,653	$18,997	52%	69%	+$3,197	-$0	0.0%	$72,086 (vs do-nothing +$2,096)
$764	25d	18 Sep 2026	$10.45	10/12	$12,540	$16,212	52%	67%	+$2,613	-$0	0.0%	$74,320 (vs do-nothing +$4,330)
$763	25d	18 Sep 2026	$11.06	9/12	$11,945	$17,453	50%	67%	+$2,386	-$0	0.0%	$74,436 (vs do-nothing +$4,446)
$763	18d	11 Sep 2026	$9.35	8/12	$12,467	$19,811	50%	68%	+$3,352	-$0	0.0%	$72,574 (vs do-nothing +$2,584)
$763	11d	4 Sep 2026	$7.39	6/12	$12,093	$23,109	49%	66%	+$2,391	-$0	0.0%	$70,752 (vs do-nothing +$762)
$763	10d	3 Sep 2026	$6.71	6/12	$12,078	$23,094	49%	67%	+$2,808	-$0	0.0%	$70,344 (vs do-nothing +$354)
$763	9d	2 Sep 2026	$6.33	6/12	$12,660	$23,676	49%	66%	+$2,372	-$0	0.0%	$70,116 (vs do-nothing +$126)
$763	7d	31 Aug 2026	$5.57	5/12	$11,936	$24,788	49%	67%	+$2,627	-$0	0.0%	$69,715 (vs do-nothing $-275)
$762	25d	18 Sep 2026	$11.68	9/12	$12,614	$18,122	48%	66%	+$2,411	-$0	0.0%	$74,994 (vs do-nothing +$5,004)
$763	4d	28 Aug 2026	$4.98	4/12	$14,940	$29,628	48%	69%	+$4,929	-$0	0.0%	$69,534 (vs do-nothing $-456)
$762	18d	11 Sep 2026	$9.84	7/12	$11,480	$20,660	48%	67%	+$2,900	-$0	0.0%	$72,594 (vs do-nothing +$2,604)
$762	11d	4 Sep 2026	$7.92	6/12	$12,960	$23,976	47%	65%	+$2,342	-$0	0.0%	$71,070 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)
$761	25d	18 Sep 2026	$12.33	8/12	$11,837	$19,181	47%	65%	+$2,185	-$0	0.0%	$74,958 (vs do-nothing +$4,968)
$762	10d	3 Sep 2026	$7.30	6/12	$13,140	$24,156	47%	65%	+$2,206	-$0	0.0%	$70,698 (vs do-nothing +$708)
$762	9d	2 Sep 2026	$6.94	5/12	$11,567	$24,419	47%	65%	+$2,010	-$0	0.0%	$70,400 (vs do-nothing +$410)
$762	7d	31 Aug 2026	$6.08	5/12	$13,029	$25,881	46%	65%	+$2,578	-$0	0.0%	$69,970 (vs do-nothing $-20)
$761	18d	11 Sep 2026	$10.48	7/12	$12,227	$21,407	46%	67%	+$3,015	-$0	0.0%	$73,042 (vs do-nothing +$3,052)
$760	25d	18 Sep 2026	$12.92	8/12	$12,403	$19,747	45%	65%	+$2,152	-$0	0.0%	$75,430 (vs do-nothing +$5,440)
$761	11d	4 Sep 2026	$8.54	5/12	$11,645	$24,497	45%	65%	+$1,953	-$0	0.0%	$71,200 (vs do-nothing +$1,210)
$761	10d	3 Sep 2026	$7.95	5/12	$11,925	$24,777	44%	64%	+$1,880	-$0	0.0%	$70,905 (vs do-nothing +$915)
$762	4d	28 Aug 2026	$5.54	3/12	$12,465	$28,989	44%	68%	+$3,731	-$0	0.0%	$69,816 (vs do-nothing $-174)
$759	25d	18 Sep 2026	$13.57	8/12	$13,027	$20,371	44%	64%	+$2,159	-$0	0.0%	$75,950 (vs do-nothing +$5,960)
$761	9d	2 Sep 2026	$7.57	5/12	$12,617	$25,469	44%	64%	+$2,024	-$0	0.0%	$70,715 (vs do-nothing +$725)
$760	18d	11 Sep 2026	$11.20	7/12	$13,067	$22,247	44%	66%	+$3,195	-$0	0.0%	$73,546 (vs do-nothing +$3,556)
$760	11d	4 Sep 2026	$9.19	5/12	$12,532	$25,384	43%	64%	+$1,958	-$0	0.0%	$71,525 (vs do-nothing +$1,535)
$758	25d	18 Sep 2026	$14.22	7/12	$11,945	$21,125	43%	64%	+$1,869	-$0	0.0%	$75,660 (vs do-nothing +$5,670)
$761	7d	31 Aug 2026	$6.74	4/12	$11,554	$26,242	42%	64%	+$2,215	-$0	0.0%	$70,238 (vs do-nothing +$248)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-24 21:44