FORTRESS FIGHT: GLD @ $377.90

BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $470.96 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh)

GLD @ $377.90 UNDERWATER $78.10 (17.1% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $470.96 | IV: LOW

LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)

SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)

HP: $330 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $4.500/sh)

Current CCs

Contract	Expiry	Type	Status	Sigma	Survival	Entry
5x $390 call	17 Jul 2026 (6d)	FIGHT	ACTIVE	σ 1.23	89%	entry $1.35

Economics

Max Loss	$256,000	(ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,269/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$1,052/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-122,025	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,635/mo

HEDGE COVER
$1,052/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,269/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
10.2 mo to earn back $136,000

ML VELOCITY
19.3 mo to earn back $256,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $470.96 (probe: $470C 13d) brings only $23/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$248

Hole (after banked)

$121,777

was $122,025 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$676

CC-SS ratchet

$510.40 → $470.96

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $390C 17 Jul 2026	U10001299	$1.35	$676	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 39 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 47 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $419.79 (+11%) · daily UBB $396.48 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 10 contracts at $385 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($6,635/mo); it brings $7,100/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $380/6d for $14,700/mo, but breach risk rises to 41% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $394/6d (95% survival, $1,150/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $84,537 (62% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $456, recoverable in 6.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-122,085 and cuts bleed by $1,052/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 10 × $385, 78% survival, $7,100/mo (E[net] $1,240/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 6d	10 × $385	78%	$7,100	$1,240

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $1,240/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $385 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $7,100/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $387 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 22% → 17%) for $2,400/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $387 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLD to stay flat-to-down near term.

GLD spot $377.90 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

10 × $394

17 Jul

4.3%

95%

10%

$230

$1,150

-$5,950

$76,727

Sell 10 × $394 4.3% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.29 mid)

= $230 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,150/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $394)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $394.29)

95%

EV / mo

+$733

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.2 mo [5.3-7.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (6.4 mo) · 5% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-489

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,351

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$406 @ 78% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.06/sh now → $3.58 mid-life (likely $2.92–$5.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 242 simulated challenges: the $394 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $396 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$394	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.53/sh	+$534 cycle +$764 [+$313…+$1,152] · 93% credit	65% surv 51%	-$106,771 NOT cap gain +$15,254
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$404	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.34/sh	+$344 cycle +$574 [-$297…+$1,062] · 64% credit	76% surv 70%	-$97,871 NOT cap gain +$24,154
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$395	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.03/sh	+$32 cycle +$262 [-$274…+$578] · 55% credit	67% surv 55%	-$106,283 NOT cap gain +$15,742
Max even-money escape in the band	~$405	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.03/sh	+$32 cycle +$262 [-$655…+$736] · 50% credit	77% surv 72%	-$97,283 NOT cap gain +$24,742
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$406	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.23/sh	-$227 cycle +$3 [-$949…+$463] · 38% credit	78% surv 73%	-$96,642 NOT cap gain +$25,383
budget: banked $230 debit $227 (99% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,919/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,150/mo
vs 50% target ($6,635/mo)	-83%
vs normal income ($13,269/mo)	9% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$98/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $394 is $77 below CC-SS $470.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$76,727
… as % of IC ($136,000)	56.4%
… as % of ML ($256,000)	30.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-122,080

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $394.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $394)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $390.06	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $390-394.29	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $394.29	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$394.00 (1.6σ)	$230	$-107,305	+$14,720	+$220
+2.5%	$403.85 (2.6σ)	$-9,620	$-108,290	+$13,735	-$9,630
+5%	$413.70 (3.6σ)	$-19,470	$-109,275	+$12,750	-$19,480
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-61,770	$-113,505	+$8,520	-$60,780

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,025

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,751

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $394): -$76,727

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-115,001 (+$7,024 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-54,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,780, the opportunity cost of earning $1,150/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,560, position total $-109,884 (+$12,141 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $390

17 Jul

3.2%

90%

20%

$550

$2,750

-$4,350

$80,407

Sell 10 × $390 3.2% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.58 mid)

= $550 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,750/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $390.58)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,563

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.2 mo [6.0-8.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (7.3 mo) · 6% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,118

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,913

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$403 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $4.90/sh now → $3.46 mid-life (likely $2.94–$5.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 489 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $392 (overshoots $2.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.51/sh	+$510 cycle +$1,060 [+$254…+$1,043] · 91% credit	65% surv 51%	-$110,075 NOT cap gain +$11,950
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$399	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.54/sh	+$540 cycle +$1,090 [-$111…+$1,116] · 70% credit	76% surv 69%	-$101,855 NOT cap gain +$20,170
Max even-money escape in the band	~$400	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.24/sh	+$237 cycle +$787 [-$472…+$782] · 54% credit	77% surv 71%	-$101,258 NOT cap gain +$20,767
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$391	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.01/sh	+$9 cycle +$559 [-$340…+$463] · 50% credit	67% surv 55%	-$109,586 NOT cap gain +$12,439
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$403	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.53/sh	-$535 cycle +$15 [-$1,394…-$52] · 24% credit	80% surv 76%	-$99,330 NOT cap gain +$22,695
budget: banked $550 debit $535 (97% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,166/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,750/mo
vs 50% target ($6,635/mo)	-59%
vs normal income ($13,269/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,698/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $390 is $81 below CC-SS $470.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$80,407
… as % of IC ($136,000)	59.1%
… as % of ML ($256,000)	31.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-122,060

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $390.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $390)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $386.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $386-390.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $390.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$390.00 (1.2σ)	$550	$-110,585	+$11,440	+$540
+2.5%	$399.75 (2.2σ)	$-9,200	$-111,560	+$10,465	-$9,210
+5%	$409.50 (3.2σ)	$-18,950	$-112,535	+$9,490	-$18,960
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-65,450	$-117,185	+$4,840	-$64,460

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,025

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,751

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $390): -$80,407

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-118,681 (+$3,344 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-54,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-64,460, the opportunity cost of earning $2,750/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,240, position total $-113,564 (+$8,461 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

10 × $387

17 Jul

2.4%

83%

33%

$940

$4,700

-$2,400

$83,017

Sell 10 × $387 2.4% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.01 mid)

= $940 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $387)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $388.01)

86%

EV / mo

+$2,088

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.4 mo [6.2-8.6] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (7.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 6% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 3% without) · ~11.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,320

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,435

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$401 @ 81% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $4.77/sh now → $3.37 mid-life (likely $3.34–$5.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 776 simulated challenges: the $387 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $389 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$387	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.49/sh	+$493 cycle +$1,433 [+$99…+$758] · 83% credit	65% surv 51%	-$112,402 NOT cap gain +$9,623
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$387	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.44/sh	+$439 cycle +$1,379 [+$38…+$701] · 77% credit	65% surv 51%	-$112,366 NOT cap gain +$9,659
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$395	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.81/sh	+$807 cycle +$1,747 [-$10…+$1,104] · 74% credit	75% surv 67%	-$104,798 NOT cap gain +$17,227
Max even-money escape in the band	~$397	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.16/sh	+$158 cycle +$1,098 [-$767…+$423] · 41% credit	77% surv 71%	-$103,647 NOT cap gain +$18,378
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$401	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.89/sh	-$890 cycle +$50 [-$2,050…-$706] · 9% credit	81% surv 78%	-$101,095 NOT cap gain +$20,930
budget: banked $940 debit $890 (95% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,385/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,700/mo
vs 50% target ($6,635/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($13,269/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,648/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $387 is $84 below CC-SS $470.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$83,017
… as % of IC ($136,000)	61.0%
… as % of ML ($256,000)	32.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-122,095

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $388.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $387)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $383.13	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $383-388.01	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $388.01	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$387.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$940	$-112,895	+$9,130	+$930
+2.5%	$396.67 (1.9σ)	$-8,735	$-113,862	+$8,163	-$8,745
+5%	$406.35 (2.9σ)	$-18,410	$-114,830	+$7,195	-$18,420
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-68,060	$-119,795	+$2,230	-$67,070

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,025

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,751

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $387): -$83,017

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-121,291 (+$734 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-54,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-67,070, the opportunity cost of earning $4,700/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,850, position total $-116,174 (+$5,851 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

10 × $385

17 Jul

1.9%

78%

35%

$1,420

$7,100

—

$84,537

Sell 10 × $385 1.9% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.48 mid)

= $1,420 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,100/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $386.48)

82%

EV / mo

+$2,840

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.1 mo [6.2-8.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (6.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 11% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~16.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,354

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

35%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,897

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$401 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $4.69/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $3.63–$5.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,060 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $387 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.48/sh	+$481 cycle +$1,901 [+$22…+$621] · 77% credit	65% surv 51%	-$113,734 NOT cap gain +$8,291
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.43/sh	+$427 cycle +$1,847 [-$37…+$557] · 72% credit	65% surv 51%	-$113,698 NOT cap gain +$8,327
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$393	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.75/sh	+$749 cycle +$2,169 [-$179…+$737] · 66% credit	75% surv 68%	-$106,176 NOT cap gain +$15,849
Max even-money escape in the band	~$395	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.11/sh	+$107 cycle +$1,527 [-$951…+$66] · 27% credit	77% surv 71%	-$105,018 NOT cap gain +$17,007
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$401	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$1.33/sh	-$1,328 cycle +$92 [-$2,780…-$1,460] · 2% credit	84% surv 81%	-$101,053 NOT cap gain +$20,972
budget: banked $1,420 debit $1,328 (94% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,509/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,100/mo
vs 50% target ($6,635/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($13,269/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,048/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $385 is $86 below CC-SS $470.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$84,537
… as % of IC ($136,000)	62.2%
… as % of ML ($256,000)	33.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-122,085

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.42 collected) or spot ≥ $386.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $385)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $381.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $381-386.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $386.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$385.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,420	$-111,440	+$7,810	+$1,410
+2.5%	$394.62 (1.7σ)	$-8,205	$-112,402	+$6,848	-$8,215
+5%	$404.25 (2.7σ)	$-17,830	$-113,365	+$5,885	-$17,840
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-69,580	$-118,540	+$710	-$68,590

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,025

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,751

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $385): -$84,537

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-122,811 ($-786 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-54,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-68,590, the opportunity cost of earning $7,100/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,370, position total $-117,694 (+$4,331 vs today)

▸

100% normal

10 × $380

17 Jul

0.6%

59%

83%

$2,940

$14,700

+$7,600

$88,017

Sell 10 × $380 0.6% OTM over spot $377.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.12 mid)

= $2,940 credit for the 6d cycle → $14,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

59%

Breach risk

41%

POP (stays ≤ $383.12)

71%

EV / mo

+$2,722

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.5 mo [4.7-7.9] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (6.9 mo) · 14% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 5% without) · ~38.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $36,973

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

63%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$234

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$402 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $4.49/sh now → $3.17 mid-life (likely $4.18–$6.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,898 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $383 (overshoots $2.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$387	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.95/sh	+$949 cycle +$3,889 [-$287…+$502] · 63% credit	74% surv 66%	-$109,856 NOT cap gain +$12,169
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.45/sh	+$453 cycle +$3,393 [-$175…+$227] · 53% credit	65% surv 51%	-$116,742 NOT cap gain +$5,283
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$380	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.40/sh	+$400 cycle +$3,340 [-$247…+$166] · 42% credit	65% surv 51%	-$116,705 NOT cap gain +$5,320
Max even-money escape in the band	~$389	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.27/sh	+$272 cycle +$3,212 [-$1,134…-$243] · 17% credit	76% surv 70%	-$108,733 NOT cap gain +$13,292
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$2.16/sh	-$2,163 cycle +$777 [-$4,489…-$2,936]	90% surv 89%	-$99,468 NOT cap gain +$22,557
budget: banked $2,940 debit $2,163 (74% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$777 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,784/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$14,700/mo
vs 50% target ($6,635/mo)	+122%
vs normal income ($13,269/mo)	111% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$13,648/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $380 is $91 below CC-SS $470.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$88,017
… as % of IC ($136,000)	64.7%
… as % of ML ($256,000)	34.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-122,205

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.73/sh (~25% of the $2.94 collected) or spot ≥ $383.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $396.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $376-383.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $383.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$380.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,940	$-117,195	+$4,830	+$2,930
+2.5%	$389.50 (1.2σ)	$-6,560	$-118,145	+$3,880	-$6,570
+5%	$399.00 (2.1σ)	$-16,060	$-119,095	+$2,930	-$16,070
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (7.9σ)	$-73,060	$-124,795	-$2,770	-$72,070

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $470.96, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,025

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$83,751

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $380): -$88,017

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-126,291 ($-4,266 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-54,221 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,070, the opportunity cost of earning $14,700/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.79 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,850, position total $-121,174 (+$851 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLD are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (86 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 86 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$83,751 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-54,221

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$384	4d	15 Jul 2026	$0.92	10/10	$6,900	$5,848	79%	82%	+$2,049	-$86,037	63.3%	$-124,311 (vs do-nothing $-70,090)
$385	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.42	10/10	$7,100	$6,048	78%	82%	+$2,840	-$84,537	62.2%	$-122,811 (vs do-nothing $-68,590)
$383	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.18	8/10	$7,080	$6,033	75%	80%	+$1,967	-$69,422	51.0%	$-110,885 (vs do-nothing $-56,664)
$384	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.53	9/10	$6,885	$5,836	74%	79%	+$2,063	-$76,884	56.5%	$-116,753 (vs do-nothing $-62,532)
$383	6d	17 Jul 2026	$1.88	8/10	$7,520	$6,473	71%	77%	+$2,189	-$68,862	50.6%	$-110,325 (vs do-nothing $-56,104)
$382	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.43	7/10	$7,508	$6,463	70%	77%	+$1,695	-$61,269	45.1%	$-104,327 (vs do-nothing $-50,106)
$385	13d	24 Jul 2026	$2.89	10/10	$6,669	$5,618	69%	76%	+$1,488	-$83,067	61.1%	$-121,341 (vs do-nothing $-67,120)
$384	11d	22 Jul 2026	$2.54	10/10	$6,927	$5,876	68%	75%	+$1,283	-$84,417	62.1%	$-122,691 (vs do-nothing $-68,470)
$383	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.28	9/10	$6,840	$5,791	68%	75%	+$1,382	-$77,109	56.7%	$-116,978 (vs do-nothing $-62,757)
$382	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.16	7/10	$7,560	$6,515	67%	75%	+$1,824	-$60,758	44.7%	$-103,816 (vs do-nothing $-49,595)
$384	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.20	9/10	$6,646	$5,597	67%	74%	+$1,352	-$75,381	55.4%	$-115,250 (vs do-nothing $-61,029)
$383	11d	22 Jul 2026	$2.87	9/10	$7,045	$5,995	66%	74%	+$1,199	-$76,578	56.3%	$-116,447 (vs do-nothing $-62,226)
$381	4d	15 Jul 2026	$1.73	6/10	$7,785	$6,743	66%	74%	+$1,407	-$52,936	38.9%	$-97,589 (vs do-nothing $-43,368)

Show 73 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 73.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	20d	31 Jul 2026	$4.55	10/10	$6,825	$5,773	65%	74%	+$1,549	-$81,407	59.9%	$-119,681 (vs do-nothing $-65,460)
$382	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.60	8/10	$6,933	$5,886	65%	73%	+$1,222	-$69,086	50.8%	$-110,549 (vs do-nothing $-56,328)
$383	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.55	9/10	$7,373	$6,324	64%	73%	+$1,384	-$75,966	55.9%	$-115,835 (vs do-nothing $-61,614)
$384	20d	31 Jul 2026	$4.90	10/10	$7,350	$6,298	64%	73%	+$1,557	-$82,057	60.3%	$-120,331 (vs do-nothing $-66,110)
$381	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.53	6/10	$7,590	$6,548	63%	73%	+$1,612	-$52,456	38.6%	$-97,109 (vs do-nothing $-42,888)
$382	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.25	8/10	$7,091	$6,044	63%	72%	+$1,138	-$68,566	50.4%	$-110,029 (vs do-nothing $-55,808)
$383	20d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	9/10	$7,155	$6,106	62%	73%	+$1,850	-$74,391	54.7%	$-114,260 (vs do-nothing $-60,039)
$382	13d	24 Jul 2026	$3.95	8/10	$7,292	$6,245	62%	72%	+$1,294	-$68,006	50.0%	$-109,469 (vs do-nothing $-55,248)
$381	9d	20 Jul 2026	$2.97	7/10	$6,930	$5,885	61%	71%	+$1,085	-$60,891	44.8%	$-103,949 (vs do-nothing $-49,728)
$380	4d	15 Jul 2026	$2.13	5/10	$7,988	$6,947	61%	71%	+$1,287	-$44,414	32.7%	$-90,661 (vs do-nothing $-36,440)
$381	11d	22 Jul 2026	$3.60	7/10	$6,873	$5,828	60%	71%	+$935	-$60,450	44.4%	$-103,508 (vs do-nothing $-49,287)
$382	20d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	8/10	$6,840	$5,793	60%	72%	+$1,674	-$66,606	49.0%	$-108,069 (vs do-nothing $-53,848)
$381	13d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	7/10	$7,027	$5,982	59%	70%	+$1,136	-$59,925	44.1%	$-102,983 (vs do-nothing $-48,762)
$380	6d	17 Jul 2026	$2.94	5/10	$7,350	$6,310	59%	71%	+$1,361	-$44,009	32.4%	$-90,256 (vs do-nothing $-36,035)
$380	9d	20 Jul 2026	$3.30	7/10	$7,700	$6,655	58%	69%	+$908	-$61,360	45.1%	$-104,418 (vs do-nothing $-50,197)
$381	20d	31 Jul 2026	$6.15	8/10	$7,380	$6,333	58%	71%	+$1,735	-$67,046	49.3%	$-108,509 (vs do-nothing $-54,288)
$380	11d	22 Jul 2026	$4.10	6/10	$6,709	$5,667	57%	69%	+$934	-$52,114	38.3%	$-96,767 (vs do-nothing $-42,546)
$380	13d	24 Jul 2026	$4.80	6/10	$6,646	$5,604	56%	69%	+$1,001	-$51,694	38.0%	$-96,347 (vs do-nothing $-42,126)
$379	4d	15 Jul 2026	$2.52	4/10	$7,560	$6,522	56%	69%	+$907	-$35,775	26.3%	$-83,617 (vs do-nothing $-29,396)
$380	20d	31 Jul 2026	$6.45	7/10	$6,773	$5,728	56%	69%	+$1,387	-$59,155	43.5%	$-102,213 (vs do-nothing $-47,992)
$379	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	4/10	$6,700	$5,662	55%	68%	+$1,003	-$35,443	26.1%	$-83,285 (vs do-nothing $-29,064)
$379	9d	20 Jul 2026	$3.85	6/10	$7,700	$6,658	54%	68%	+$980	-$52,864	38.9%	$-97,517 (vs do-nothing $-43,296)
$379	11d	22 Jul 2026	$4.50	6/10	$7,364	$6,321	54%	68%	+$842	-$52,474	38.6%	$-97,127 (vs do-nothing $-42,906)
$379	13d	24 Jul 2026	$5.25	6/10	$7,269	$6,227	54%	68%	+$982	-$52,024	38.3%	$-96,677 (vs do-nothing $-42,456)
$379	20d	31 Jul 2026	$7.10	7/10	$7,455	$6,410	53%	68%	+$1,194	-$59,400	43.7%	$-102,458 (vs do-nothing $-48,237)
$378	20d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	6/10	$6,795	$5,753	51%	67%	+$981	-$51,244	37.7%	$-95,897 (vs do-nothing $-41,676)
$378	13d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	5/10	$6,635	$5,595	51%	66%	+$822	-$43,604	32.1%	$-89,851 (vs do-nothing $-35,630)
$378	11d	22 Jul 2026	$5.00	5/10	$6,818	$5,778	51%	66%	+$711	-$43,979	32.3%	$-90,226 (vs do-nothing $-36,005)
$378	9d	20 Jul 2026	$4.30	5/10	$7,167	$6,127	51%	66%	+$745	-$44,329	32.6%	$-90,576 (vs do-nothing $-36,355)
$378	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.85	4/10	$7,700	$6,662	51%	67%	+$996	-$35,643	26.2%	$-83,485 (vs do-nothing $-29,264)
$378	4d	15 Jul 2026	$3.00	3/10	$6,750	$5,715	51%	66%	+$651	-$26,987	19.8%	$-76,424 (vs do-nothing $-22,203)
$377	20d	31 Jul 2026	$8.05	6/10	$7,245	$6,203	49%	67%	+$1,343	-$51,544	37.9%	$-96,197 (vs do-nothing $-41,976)
$377	13d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	5/10	$7,212	$6,172	48%	65%	+$789	-$43,854	32.2%	$-90,101 (vs do-nothing $-35,880)
$377	11d	22 Jul 2026	$5.55	5/10	$7,568	$6,528	48%	65%	+$738	-$44,204	32.5%	$-90,451 (vs do-nothing $-36,230)
$377	9d	20 Jul 2026	$4.85	5/10	$8,083	$7,043	48%	65%	+$769	-$44,554	32.8%	$-90,801 (vs do-nothing $-36,580)
$376	20d	31 Jul 2026	$8.70	6/10	$7,830	$6,788	47%	65%	+$1,052	-$51,754	38.1%	$-96,407 (vs do-nothing $-42,186)
$377	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.35	4/10	$8,700	$7,662	47%	65%	+$892	-$35,843	26.4%	$-83,685 (vs do-nothing $-29,464)
$377	4d	15 Jul 2026	$3.50	3/10	$7,875	$6,840	46%	64%	+$532	-$27,137	20.0%	$-76,574 (vs do-nothing $-22,353)
$376	13d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	5/10	$7,904	$6,864	46%	64%	+$833	-$44,054	32.4%	$-90,301 (vs do-nothing $-36,080)
$376	11d	22 Jul 2026	$6.10	4/10	$6,655	$5,617	45%	64%	+$571	-$35,543	26.1%	$-83,385 (vs do-nothing $-29,164)
$375	20d	31 Jul 2026	$9.25	5/10	$6,938	$5,897	45%	64%	+$859	-$43,354	31.9%	$-89,601 (vs do-nothing $-35,380)
$376	9d	20 Jul 2026	$5.40	4/10	$7,200	$6,162	44%	63%	+$577	-$35,823	26.3%	$-83,665 (vs do-nothing $-29,444)
$375	13d	24 Jul 2026	$7.45	4/10	$6,877	$5,839	43%	63%	+$673	-$35,403	26.0%	$-83,245 (vs do-nothing $-29,024)
$376	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.90	3/10	$7,350	$6,315	43%	63%	+$595	-$27,017	19.9%	$-76,454 (vs do-nothing $-22,233)
$374	20d	31 Jul 2026	$9.85	5/10	$7,387	$6,347	43%	63%	+$861	-$43,554	32.0%	$-89,801 (vs do-nothing $-35,580)
$375	11d	22 Jul 2026	$6.65	4/10	$7,255	$6,217	42%	62%	+$514	-$35,723	26.3%	$-83,565 (vs do-nothing $-29,344)
$376	4d	15 Jul 2026	$4.05	3/10	$9,112	$8,077	41%	62%	+$396	-$27,272	20.1%	$-76,709 (vs do-nothing $-22,488)
$373	20d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	5/10	$7,875	$6,835	41%	63%	+$882	-$43,729	32.2%	$-89,976 (vs do-nothing $-35,755)
$375	9d	20 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/10	$8,000	$6,962	41%	62%	+$551	-$35,983	26.5%	$-83,825 (vs do-nothing $-29,604)
$374	13d	24 Jul 2026	$8.05	4/10	$7,431	$6,393	41%	62%	+$651	-$35,563	26.1%	$-83,405 (vs do-nothing $-29,184)
$375	6d	17 Jul 2026	$5.55	3/10	$8,325	$7,290	39%	62%	+$605	-$27,122	19.9%	$-76,559 (vs do-nothing $-22,338)
$374	11d	22 Jul 2026	$7.35	4/10	$8,018	$6,980	39%	61%	+$582	-$35,843	26.4%	$-83,685 (vs do-nothing $-29,464)
$372	20d	31 Jul 2026	$11.10	4/10	$6,660	$5,622	39%	62%	+$678	-$35,143	25.8%	$-82,985 (vs do-nothing $-28,764)
$373	13d	24 Jul 2026	$8.60	4/10	$7,938	$6,901	38%	61%	+$556	-$35,743	26.3%	$-83,585 (vs do-nothing $-29,364)
$374	9d	20 Jul 2026	$6.65	3/10	$6,650	$5,615	38%	61%	+$405	-$27,092	19.9%	$-76,529 (vs do-nothing $-22,308)
$371	20d	31 Jul 2026	$11.75	4/10	$7,050	$6,012	37%	61%	+$667	-$35,283	25.9%	$-83,125 (vs do-nothing $-28,904)
$375	4d	15 Jul 2026	$4.75	2/10	$7,125	$6,092	37%	60%	+$318	-$18,241	13.4%	$-69,273 (vs do-nothing $-15,052)
$373	11d	22 Jul 2026	$7.95	4/10	$8,673	$7,635	37%	60%	+$505	-$36,003	26.5%	$-83,845 (vs do-nothing $-29,624)
$374	6d	17 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/10	$9,300	$8,265	36%	60%	+$553	-$27,227	20.0%	$-76,664 (vs do-nothing $-22,443)
$372	13d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	4/10	$8,631	$7,593	36%	60%	+$619	-$35,843	26.4%	$-83,685 (vs do-nothing $-29,464)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-11 22:50