10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $118.06 | CC-SS: $125.95 | IV: HIGH
| Contract | Expiry | Type | Status | Sigma | Survival | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $103 call | 16 Jul 2026 (5d) | FIGHT | ACTIVE | σ 0.32 | 63% | entry $1.50 |
| Max Loss | $80,560 | (ND $43.06 + SW $38) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,076/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $260/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,420 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 16 Jul 2026 · 5d | 9 × $106 | 78% | $5,400 | $1,584 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $116 | 16 Jul | 5d | 15.2% | 98% | 4% | $45 | $270 | -$5,130 | $8,908 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $116 15.2% OTM over spot $100.68 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.07 mid) = $45 credit for the 5d cycle → $270/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $116) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $116.07) 98% EV / mo +$153 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $230 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,116 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $127 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.40/sh now → $2.40 mid-life (likely $2.05–$4.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 73 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $119 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $116 is $10 below CC-SS $125.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $116.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $116)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,420 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,958 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $116): -$8,908 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $118): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,125 (+$19,295 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,010 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,115, the opportunity cost of earning $270/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 10 × $110 | 16 Jul | 5d | 9.3% | 92% | 16% | $320 | $1,920 | -$3,480 | $15,628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $110 9.3% OTM over spot $100.68 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.34 mid) = $320 credit for the 5d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $110.34) 93% EV / mo +$1,151 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,643 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,957 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $123 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.22/sh now → $2.28 mid-life (likely $2.07–$3.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 418 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $112 (overshoots $1.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $16 below CC-SS $125.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $110.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,420 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,958 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $110): -$15,628 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,090 (+$13,330 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,010 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,080, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $106 | 16 Jul | 5d | 5.3% | 78% | 46% | $600 | $3,600 | -$1,800 | $11,369 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $106 5.3% OTM over spot $100.68 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $1.03 mid) = $600 credit for the 5d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $107.03) 81% EV / mo +$1,112 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~9.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,412 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$717 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $123 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $2.38–$3.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 978 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $108 (overshoots $1.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $20 below CC-SS $125.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $107.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,420 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,958 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $106): -$11,369 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $118): -$3,019 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,850 (+$14,570 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,010 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,840, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $106 | 16 Jul | 5d | 5.3% | 78% | 32% | $900 | $5,400 | — | $17,053 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $106 5.3% OTM over spot $100.68 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $1.03 mid) = $900 credit for the 5d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $107.03) 81% EV / mo +$1,668 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.0] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~9.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,246 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,075 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $123 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $2.32–$3.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 966 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $108 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $20 below CC-SS $125.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $107.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,420 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,958 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $106): -$17,053 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $118): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,270 (+$11,150 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,010 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,260, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $102 | 16 Jul | 5d | 1.3% | 59% | 85% | $1,784 | $10,704 | +$5,304 | $17,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $102 1.3% OTM over spot $100.68 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $2.29 mid) = $1,784 credit for the 5d cycle → $10,704/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $104.30) 70% EV / mo +$1,828 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~23.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,652 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$95 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $123 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.99/sh now → $2.11 mid-life (likely $2.81–$4.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,901 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $104 (overshoots $2.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $24 below CC-SS $125.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.23 collected) or spot ≥ $104.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,420 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,958 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $102): -$17,375 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $118): -$1,510 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,346 (+$10,074 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,010 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,336, the opportunity cost of earning $10,704/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.146 (SIM) | Recovery@SS: +$28,958 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,010
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $106 | 5d | 16 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 9/10 | $5,400 | $5,240 | 78% | 81% | +$1,668 | -$17,053 | 39.6% | $-17,270 (vs do-nothing $-10,260) |
| $106 | 12d | 23 Jul 2026 | $2.36 | 9/10 | $5,310 | $5,150 | 70% | 77% | +$1,303 | -$15,829 | 36.8% | $-16,046 (vs do-nothing $-9,036) |
| $104 | 5d | 16 Jul 2026 | $1.53 | 6/10 | $5,508 | $5,648 | 69% | 76% | +$1,322 | -$12,251 | 28.5% | $-14,732 (vs do-nothing $-7,722) |
| $106 | 26d | 6 Aug 2026 | $4.37 | 10/10 | $5,042 | $4,782 | 65% | 74% | +$1,085 | -$15,578 | 36.2% | $-15,040 (vs do-nothing $-8,030) |
| $104 | 12d | 23 Jul 2026 | $3.01 | 7/10 | $5,268 | $5,308 | 64% | 73% | +$1,062 | -$13,257 | 30.8% | $-14,983 (vs do-nothing $-7,973) |
| $104 | 26d | 6 Aug 2026 | $5.08 | 9/10 | $5,275 | $5,115 | 61% | 72% | +$977 | -$15,181 | 35.3% | $-15,398 (vs do-nothing $-8,388) |
| $102 | 5d | 16 Jul 2026 | $2.23 | 4/10 | $5,352 | $5,692 | 59% | 70% | +$914 | -$8,687 | 20.2% | $-12,678 (vs do-nothing $-5,668) |
| $102 | 12d | 23 Jul 2026 | $3.79 | 6/10 | $5,685 | $5,825 | 57% | 70% | +$921 | -$12,095 | 28.1% | $-14,576 (vs do-nothing $-7,566) |
| $102 | 26d | 6 Aug 2026 | $5.90 | 8/10 | $5,446 | $5,386 | 56% | 70% | +$872 | -$14,439 | 33.5% | $-15,410 (vs do-nothing $-8,400) |
| $100 | 26d | 6 Aug 2026 | $6.81 | 7/10 | $5,500 | $5,540 | 52% | 68% | +$750 | -$13,397 | 31.1% | $-15,123 (vs do-nothing $-8,113) |
| $100 | 12d | 23 Jul 2026 | $4.71 | 5/10 | $5,888 | $6,128 | 50% | 66% | +$748 | -$10,619 | 24.7% | $-13,855 (vs do-nothing $-6,845) |
| $100 | 5d | 16 Jul 2026 | $3.18 | 3/10 | $5,724 | $6,164 | 48% | 65% | +$713 | -$6,830 | 15.9% | $-11,576 (vs do-nothing $-4,566) |
| $98 | 26d | 6 Aug 2026 | $7.81 | 6/10 | $5,407 | $5,547 | 47% | 66% | +$614 | -$12,083 | 28.1% | $-14,564 (vs do-nothing $-7,554) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 | 12d | 23 Jul 2026 | $5.77 | 4/10 | $5,770 | $6,110 | 43% | 63% | +$554 | -$8,871 | 20.6% | $-12,862 (vs do-nothing $-5,852) |
| $98 | 5d | 16 Jul 2026 | $4.28 | 2/10 | $5,136 | $5,676 | 37% | 61% | +$362 | -$4,734 | 11.0% | $-10,234 (vs do-nothing $-3,224) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.