10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $297.51 | CC-SS: $310.67 | IV: HIGH
| Max Loss | $203,750 | (ND $110.01 + SW $94) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $19,575/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $155/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-72,617 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 16 Jul 2026 · 5d | 10 × $260 | 79% | $10,020 | $2,668 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $280 | 16 Jul | 5d | 12.4% | 99% | 3% | $28 | $168 | -$9,852 | $12,240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $280 12.4% OTM over spot $249.21 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.09 mid) = $28 credit for the 5d cycle → $168/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $280) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $280.09) 99% EV / mo +$118 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $844 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,747 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $301 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.28/sh now → $4.44 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $280 is $31 below CC-SS $310.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $280.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $280)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $310.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-72,617 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,159 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $280): -$12,240 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $300): -$6,348 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,046 (+$53,571 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,008, the opportunity cost of earning $168/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 10 × $270 | 16 Jul | 5d | 8.3% | 94% | 13% | $420 | $2,520 | -$7,500 | $40,250 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $270 8.3% OTM over spot $249.21 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.44 mid) = $420 credit for the 5d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $270) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $270.44) 94% EV / mo +$1,372 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.4-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,871 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,860 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $291 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.05/sh now → $4.28 mid-life (likely $3.77–$6.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 265 simulated challenges: the $270 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $274 (overshoots $3.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $270 is $41 below CC-SS $310.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $270.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $270)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $310.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-72,617 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,159 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $270): -$40,250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,708 (+$31,909 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,670, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 7 × $260 | 16 Jul | 5d | 4.3% | 79% | 42% | $1,169 | $7,014 | -$3,006 | $34,300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $260 4.3% OTM over spot $249.21 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $1.72 mid) = $1,169 credit for the 5d cycle → $7,014/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $260) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $261.72) 83% EV / mo +$2,336 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-5.1] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~10.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,002 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,716 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $291 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.83/sh now → $4.12 mid-life (likely $4.36–$7.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 904 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $264 (overshoots $3.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $260 is $51 below CC-SS $310.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.67 collected) or spot ≥ $261.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $310.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-72,617 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,159 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $260): -$34,300 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$3,174 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,932 (+$34,685 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,894, the opportunity cost of earning $7,014/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $260 | 16 Jul | 5d | 4.3% | 79% | 30% | $1,670 | $10,020 | — | $49,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $260 4.3% OTM over spot $249.21 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $1.72 mid) = $1,670 credit for the 5d cycle → $10,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $260) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $261.72) 83% EV / mo +$3,337 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.4-5.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~10.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $33,735 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,451 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $291 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.83/sh now → $4.12 mid-life (likely $4.39–$6.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 892 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $264 (overshoots $3.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $260 is $51 below CC-SS $310.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.67 collected) or spot ≥ $261.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $310.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-72,617 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,159 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $260): -$49,000 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,458 (+$23,159 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,420, the opportunity cost of earning $10,020/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $250 | 16 Jul | 5d | 0.3% | 53% | 95% | $3,430 | $20,580 | +$10,560 | $39,039 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $250 0.3% OTM over spot $249.21 16 Jul 2026 (5d, $5.04 mid) = $3,430 credit for the 5d cycle → $20,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $250) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $255.04) 68% EV / mo +$3,064 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-4.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~36.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $34,633 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$656 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 6 Aug 2026) $291 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.60/sh now → $3.96 mid-life (likely $5.40–$8.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,129 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $254 (overshoots $4.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $250 is $61 below CC-SS $310.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.23/sh (~25% of the $4.90 collected) or spot ≥ $255.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $250)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (SIM)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $310.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-72,617 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,159 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $250): -$39,039 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $300): -$3,174 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,671 (+$29,946 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,038 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,633, the opportunity cost of earning $20,580/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.174 (SIM) | Recovery@SS: +$72,159 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,038
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $260 | 5d | 16 Jul 2026 | $1.67 | 10/10 | $10,020 | $9,865 | 79% | 83% | +$3,337 | -$49,000 | 44.5% | $-49,458 (vs do-nothing $-38,420) |
| $260 | 12d | 23 Jul 2026 | $4.12 | 10/10 | $10,300 | $10,145 | 71% | 77% | +$2,669 | -$46,550 | 42.3% | $-47,008 (vs do-nothing $-35,970) |
| $255 | 5d | 16 Jul 2026 | $2.97 | 6/10 | $10,692 | $10,627 | 68% | 75% | +$2,508 | -$31,620 | 28.7% | $-36,310 (vs do-nothing $-25,272) |
| $255 | 12d | 23 Jul 2026 | $5.76 | 7/10 | $10,080 | $9,992 | 62% | 72% | +$2,025 | -$34,937 | 31.8% | $-38,569 (vs do-nothing $-27,531) |
| $255 | 26d | 6 Aug 2026 | $9.67 | 9/10 | $10,042 | $9,909 | 60% | 71% | +$1,893 | -$41,400 | 37.6% | $-42,916 (vs do-nothing $-31,878) |
| $250 | 26d | 6 Aug 2026 | $11.82 | 8/10 | $10,911 | $10,801 | 53% | 68% | +$1,685 | -$39,080 | 35.5% | $-41,654 (vs do-nothing $-30,616) |
| $250 | 5d | 16 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 4/10 | $11,760 | $11,740 | 53% | 68% | +$1,751 | -$22,308 | 20.3% | $-29,114 (vs do-nothing $-18,076) |
| $250 | 12d | 23 Jul 2026 | $7.83 | 5/10 | $9,788 | $9,745 | 53% | 68% | +$1,452 | -$26,420 | 24.0% | $-32,168 (vs do-nothing $-21,130) |
| $245 | 26d | 6 Aug 2026 | $14.27 | 6/10 | $9,879 | $9,814 | 47% | 65% | +$1,210 | -$30,840 | 28.0% | $-35,530 (vs do-nothing $-24,492) |
| $245 | 12d | 23 Jul 2026 | $10.36 | 4/10 | $10,360 | $10,340 | 44% | 64% | +$1,069 | -$22,124 | 20.1% | $-28,930 (vs do-nothing $-17,892) |
| $245 | 5d | 16 Jul 2026 | $7.52 | 3/10 | $13,536 | $13,538 | 39% | 61% | +$1,076 | -$17,445 | 15.9% | $-25,309 (vs do-nothing $-14,271) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.