FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-05-04 22:34:29
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$212,330/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$31,393/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$180,936/yr
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$2,500
PORTFOLIO ACTION SUMMARY · 21 positions
4 · ROLL NOW3 · REPAIR PLAN14 · OK
Click any ticker row below to jump to its analysis section.
Fortress Position Overview
| TICKER | STOCK | LC | SP | HP | SC |
SS | GAP | RM | HP OTM% | STATUS | CTRS | IC | NOTIONAL | URGENCY |
| BMNR → |
$22.78 |
10 | 18 |
10 | 27 |
$17.13 |
8 | 2.28x |
56.1% |
SAFE |
50 |
$31,250 | $113,900 |
ROLL NOW (45d) |
| CIFR → |
$17.86 |
12 | 17 |
8 | 0 |
$16.80 |
9 | 2.96x |
55.2% |
SAFE |
50 |
$23,000 | $89,300 |
ROLL NOW (45d) |
| COPX → |
$78.36 |
50 | 90 |
71 | 85 |
$84.00 |
19 | 1.68x |
9.4% |
OK |
50 |
$140,000 | $391,775 |
ROLL NOW (45d) |
| ETHA → |
$17.74 |
13 | 16 |
6 | 0 |
$17.33 |
10 | 3.31x |
66.2% |
SAFE |
50 |
$21,650 | $88,712 |
ROLL NOW (45d) |
| GLD → |
$420.23 |
320 | 450 |
410 | 458 |
$456.00 |
40 | 1.29x |
2.4% |
TIGHT |
10 |
$136,000 | $420,230 |
REPAIR PLAN (57d) |
| NOW → |
$95.12 |
80 | 110 |
105 | 0 |
$108.93 |
5 | 1.18x |
-10.4% |
ITM |
10 |
$27,850 | $95,120 |
REPAIR PLAN (45d) |
| TSLA → |
$390.07 |
300 | 400 |
355 | 425 |
$421.00 |
45 | 1.37x |
9.0% |
OK |
5 |
$60,500 | $195,035 |
REPAIR PLAN (45d) |
| ARM |
$202.68 |
175 | 230 |
70 | 0 |
$212.00 |
160 | 9.42x |
65.5% |
SAFE |
2 |
$3,800 | $40,536 |
OK |
| AVGO |
$416.54 |
300 | 350 |
155 | 455 |
$374.36 |
195 | 3.62x |
62.8% |
SAFE |
2 |
$14,872 | $83,308 |
OK |
| COIN |
$203.69 |
165 | 240 |
85 | 0 |
$210.90 |
155 | 10.23x |
58.3% |
SAFE |
8 |
$13,440 | $162,952 |
OK |
| FSLR |
$208.96 |
140 | 175 |
125 | 225 |
$187.95 |
50 | 2.04x |
40.2% |
SAFE |
5 |
$23,975 | $104,480 |
OK |
| GDX |
$87.09 |
60 | 76 |
26 | 0 |
$80.00 |
50 | 3.50x |
70.1% |
SAFE |
6 |
$12,000 | $52,257 |
OK |
| HIMS |
$27.54 |
10 | 20 |
5 | 0 |
$17.47 |
15 | 4.04x |
81.8% |
SAFE |
15 |
$7,395 | $41,312 |
OK |
| HOOD |
$77.78 |
50 | 65 |
25 | 0 |
$66.00 |
40 | 3.50x |
67.9% |
SAFE |
8 |
$12,800 | $62,224 |
OK |
| IREN |
$50.13 |
25 | 47 |
35 | 57 |
$44.00 |
12 | 1.75x |
30.2% |
SAFE |
40 |
$64,000 | $200,540 |
OK |
| MRVL |
$164.32 |
115 | 140 |
50 | 175 |
$149.10 |
90 | 3.64x |
69.6% |
SAFE |
3 |
$10,230 | $49,296 |
OK |
| MU |
$583.80 |
330 | 390 |
135 | 600 |
$433.00 |
255 | 3.48x |
76.9% |
SAFE |
5 |
$51,500 | $291,902 |
OK |
| NEM |
$110.01 |
88 | 105 |
75 | 117 |
$114.54 |
30 | 2.11x |
31.8% |
SAFE |
5 |
$13,520 | $55,005 |
OK |
| NVDA |
$197.81 |
135 | 165 |
65 | 0 |
$198.80 |
100 | 2.57x |
67.1% |
SAFE |
15 |
$95,700 | $296,715 |
OK |
| PLTR |
$147.66 |
100 | 120 |
45 | 155 |
$134.35 |
75 | 3.18x |
69.5% |
SAFE |
10 |
$34,350 | $147,660 |
OK |
| RKLB |
$80.57 |
47 | 60 |
30 | 0 |
$70.23 |
30 | 2.29x |
62.8% |
SAFE |
15 |
$34,845 | $120,855 |
OK |
GLD: HP 410P Roll-Down · exp Jun 30 '26, 57d (no viable candidates)
Stock: $420.23
Current HP: 410P (57d, 2.4% OTM)
Current hedge: $65,316/yr
Gap: 40
IV: LOW
No HP candidates passed all filters. Reasons:
- 46 candidate(s) priced
- 30 rejected by gap-mult cap (2.0x current gap = 80). Try
--gap-mult 3.0 or higher to allow wider SP-HP gap. - 16 rejected for being inside the 12% OTM floor (LOW IV).
NOW: HP 105P Roll-Down · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d (no viable candidates)
Stock: $95.12
Current HP: 105P (45d, -10.4% OTM)
Current hedge: $111,933/yr
Gap: 5
IV: HIGH
No HP candidates passed all filters. Reasons:
- 5 candidate(s) priced
- 4 rejected by gap-mult cap (2.0x current gap = 10). Try
--gap-mult 3.0 or higher to allow wider SP-HP gap. - 1 rejected for being inside the 8% OTM floor (HIGH IV).
TSLA: HP 355P Roll-Down · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d
Stock: $390.07
HP: 9.0% OTM
Current hedge: $35,081/yr
SS: $421.00 (unchanged)
Shares: 500
CC income: $38,893/yr
IV: MEDIUM
OTM floor: 10%
Stress: 15% DD
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
5 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 355 → 350 (Aug 21, 109d) |
Save $3,687/yr |
Payback 8mo (0.68yr) hedge only, 1mo (0.06yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) |
HP moves to 10.3% OTM |
RM 1.37x → 1.41x
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% | ASK |
ROLL CR/SH | ROLL TOTAL | HEDGE/YR | STRESS/YR | SAVED/YR |
GAP | ML+ | PAYBACK | PB+INC | NEW RM | |
| 1 |
350 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
10.3% |
$18.75 |
$-10.25 |
$-5,125 |
$31,393 |
$45,492 |
$3,687 |
50 |
$2,500 |
8mo |
1mo |
1.41x |
PASS |
| 2 |
340 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
12.8% |
$15.70 |
$-7.20 |
$-3,600 |
$26,287 |
$52,357 |
$8,794 |
60 |
$7,500 |
10mo |
2mo |
1.50x |
PASS |
| 3 |
330 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
15.4% |
$13.00 |
$-4.50 |
$-2,250 |
$21,766 |
$59,940 |
$13,315 |
70 |
$12,500 |
11mo |
3mo |
1.58x |
PASS |
| 4 |
320 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
18.0% |
$10.70 |
$-2.20 |
$-1,100 |
$17,915 |
$51,653 |
$17,165 |
80 |
$17,500 |
12mo |
4mo |
1.66x |
PASS |
| 5 |
310 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
20.5% |
$8.75 |
$-0.25 |
$-125 |
$14,650 |
$37,421 |
$20,430 |
90 |
$22,500 |
13mo |
5mo |
1.74x |
PASS |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 05 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $425, B $7.80 |
$43,875/yr |
$31,393/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $420 0.6σ, B $8.95 |
$50,344/yr |
$31,393/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| AT 15% DRAWDOWN (stock $390.07 → $331.56, hedge $45,492/yr) |
| CC at SS vs stressed |
$43,875/yr |
$45,492/yr |
DEFICIT $135/mo |
| CC at MID vs stressed |
$50,344/yr |
$45,492/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at MID ($420, bid $8.95). Self-funds in BOTH normal and 15% drawdown. At SS the position bleeds, so don't drift too far OTM.
BMNR: HP 10P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d
Stock: $22.78
Current HP: 10P (45d, 56.1% OTM)
Current hedge: $4,461/yr
Current ML: $71,250
CC income: $389,423/yr
Cost cap: 25% of CC = $97,356/yr
IV: HIGH
11 qualifying
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 10 → 10P
(Aug 21 '26, 109d, 56.1% OTM) |
Cost: $4,688/yr (1% of CC) |
New ML: $71,250 = ML |
Roll DEBIT $1,250
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 10 → 18P
(Aug 21 '26, 109d, 21.0% OTM) |
Cost: $29,635/yr (8% of CC) |
New ML: $31,250 ↓ $40,000 |
Roll DEBIT $8,700
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% |
BID | ASK | HEDGE/YR | %CC |
NEW ML | ΔML | ROLL |
| ▶ 1 |
10 CHEAP |
Aug 21 |
109d |
56.1% |
$0.17 |
$0.28 |
$4,688 |
1% |
$71,250 |
= |
D $1,250 |
| 2 |
12 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
47.3% |
$0.40 |
$0.43 |
$7,200 |
2% |
$61,250 |
-$10,000 |
D $2,000 |
| 3 |
11 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
51.7% |
$0.23 |
$0.44 |
$7,367 |
2% |
$66,250 |
-$5,000 |
D $2,050 |
| 4 |
13 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
42.9% |
$0.52 |
$0.56 |
$9,376 |
2% |
$56,250 |
-$15,000 |
D $2,650 |
| 5 |
14 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
38.5% |
$0.69 |
$0.73 |
$12,222 |
3% |
$51,250 |
-$20,000 |
D $3,500 |
| 6 |
15 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
34.2% |
$0.88 |
$0.93 |
$15,571 |
4% |
$46,250 |
-$25,000 |
D $4,500 |
| 7 |
16 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
29.8% |
$1.12 |
$1.17 |
$19,589 |
5% |
$41,250 |
-$30,000 |
D $5,700 |
| 8 |
17 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
25.4% |
$1.40 |
$1.44 |
$24,110 |
6% |
$36,250 |
-$35,000 |
D $7,050 |
| ▶ 9 |
18 PROT |
Aug 21 |
109d |
21.0% |
$1.72 |
$1.77 |
$29,635 |
8% |
$31,250 |
-$40,000 |
D $8,700 |
| 10 |
19 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
16.6% |
$2.09 |
$2.14 |
$35,830 |
9% |
$31,250 |
-$40,000 |
D $10,550 |
| 11 |
20 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
12.2% |
$2.51 |
$2.55 |
$42,695 |
11% |
$31,250 |
-$40,000 |
D $12,600 |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 05 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $22, B $1.99 |
$111,938/yr |
$4,688/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $28 0.6σ, B $0.53 |
$29,812/yr |
$4,688/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($22, bid $1.99). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
CIFR: HP 8P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d
Stock: $17.86
Current HP: 8P (45d, 55.2% OTM)
Current hedge: $5,272/yr
Current ML: $68,000
CC income: $182,901/yr
Cost cap: 25% of CC = $45,725/yr
IV: HIGH
6 qualifying
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 8 → 11P
(Jul 17 '26, 74d, 38.4% OTM) |
Cost: $12,331/yr (7% of CC) |
New ML: $53,000 ↓ $15,000 |
Roll DEBIT $2,400
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 8 → 15P
(Jul 17 '26, 74d, 16.0% OTM) |
Cost: $40,939/yr (22% of CC) |
New ML: $33,000 ↓ $35,000 |
Roll DEBIT $8,200
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% |
BID | ASK | HEDGE/YR | %CC |
NEW ML | ΔML | ROLL |
| ▶ 1 |
11 CHEAP |
Jul 17 |
74d |
38.4% |
$0.46 |
$0.50 |
$12,331 |
7% |
$53,000 |
-$15,000 |
D $2,400 |
| 2 |
10 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
44.0% |
$0.11 |
$0.95 |
$23,429 |
13% |
$58,000 |
-$10,000 |
D $4,650 |
| 3 |
12 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
32.8% |
$0.33 |
$1.00 |
$24,662 |
13% |
$48,000 |
-$20,000 |
D $4,900 |
| 4 |
14 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
21.6% |
$0.95 |
$1.31 |
$32,307 |
18% |
$38,000 |
-$30,000 |
D $6,450 |
| 5 |
13 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
27.2% |
$0.64 |
$1.35 |
$33,294 |
18% |
$43,000 |
-$25,000 |
D $6,650 |
| ▶ 6 |
15 PROT |
Jul 17 |
74d |
16.0% |
$1.34 |
$1.66 |
$40,939 |
22% |
$33,000 |
-$35,000 |
D $8,200 |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 05 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $18, B $1.81 |
$101,812/yr |
$12,331/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $22 0.6σ, B $0.48 |
$27,000/yr |
$12,331/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($18, bid $1.81). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
COPX: HP 71P Maintenance Roll · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d (no qualifying candidates)
Stock: $78.36
Current HP: 71P (45d)
Current ML: $235,000
CC income: $0/yr
Cost cap: 25% of CC = $0/yr
No candidates passed all filters (strike >= current HP, real two-sided market, OTM floor, cost cap).
Loosen --maint-cost-cap or extend --hp-max-dte and re-run.
ETHA: HP 6P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d
Stock: $17.74
Current HP: 6P (45d, 66.2% OTM)
Current hedge: $4,056/yr
Current ML: $71,650
CC income: $64,270/yr
Cost cap: 25% of CC = $16,067/yr
IV: HIGH
6 qualifying
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 6 → 10P
(Jul 17 '26, 74d, 43.6% OTM) |
Cost: $3,206/yr (5% of CC) |
New ML: $51,650 ↓ $20,000 |
Roll DEBIT $650
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 6 → 14P
(Jul 17 '26, 74d, 21.1% OTM) |
Cost: $14,057/yr (22% of CC) |
New ML: $31,650 ↓ $40,000 |
Roll DEBIT $2,850
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% |
BID | ASK | HEDGE/YR | %CC |
NEW ML | ΔML | ROLL |
| ▶ 1 |
10 CHEAP |
Jul 17 |
74d |
43.6% |
$0.09 |
$0.13 |
$3,206 |
5% |
$51,650 |
-$20,000 |
D $650 |
| 2 |
9 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
49.3% |
$0.01 |
$0.16 |
$3,946 |
6% |
$56,650 |
-$15,000 |
D $800 |
| 3 |
11 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
38.0% |
$0.14 |
$0.18 |
$4,439 |
7% |
$46,650 |
-$25,000 |
D $900 |
| 4 |
12 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
32.4% |
$0.20 |
$0.27 |
$6,659 |
10% |
$41,650 |
-$30,000 |
D $1,350 |
| 5 |
13 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
26.7% |
$0.30 |
$0.37 |
$9,125 |
14% |
$36,650 |
-$35,000 |
D $1,850 |
| ▶ 6 |
14 PROT |
Jul 17 |
74d |
21.1% |
$0.48 |
$0.57 |
$14,057 |
22% |
$31,650 |
-$40,000 |
D $2,850 |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 05 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $18, B $1.20 |
$67,500/yr |
$3,206/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $22 0.6σ, B $0.08 |
$4,500/yr |
$3,206/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($18, bid $1.20). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.
Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.
EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.
Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).