FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-05-04 23:08:12
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$217,186/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$31,477/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$185,709/yr
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$2,500
PORTFOLIO ACTION SUMMARY · 20 positions
2 · ROLL NOW3 · REPAIR PLAN15 · OK
Click any ticker row below to jump to its analysis section.
Fortress Position Overview
| TICKER | STOCK | LC | SP | HP | SC |
SS | GAP | RM | HP OTM% | STATUS | CTRS | IC | NOTIONAL | URGENCY |
| CIFR → |
$18.14 |
12 | 17 |
8 | 0 |
$16.80 |
9 | 2.96x |
55.9% |
SAFE |
50 |
$23,000 | $90,675 |
ROLL NOW (45d) |
| COPX → |
$77.95 |
50 | 90 |
71 | 85 |
$84.00 |
19 | 1.68x |
8.9% |
OK |
50 |
$140,000 | $389,775 |
ROLL NOW (45d) |
| GLD → |
$418.75 |
320 | 450 |
410 | 458 |
$456.00 |
40 | 1.29x |
2.1% |
TIGHT |
10 |
$136,000 | $418,750 |
REPAIR PLAN (57d) |
| NOW → |
$94.81 |
80 | 110 |
105 | 0 |
$108.93 |
5 | 1.18x |
-10.7% |
ITM |
10 |
$27,850 | $94,810 |
REPAIR PLAN (45d) |
| TSLA → |
$390.39 |
300 | 400 |
355 | 425 |
$421.00 |
45 | 1.37x |
9.1% |
OK |
5 |
$60,500 | $195,195 |
REPAIR PLAN (45d) |
| ARM |
$204.13 |
175 | 230 |
70 | 0 |
$212.00 |
160 | 9.42x |
65.7% |
SAFE |
2 |
$3,800 | $40,826 |
OK |
| AVGO |
$417.33 |
300 | 350 |
155 | 455 |
$374.36 |
195 | 3.62x |
62.9% |
SAFE |
2 |
$14,872 | $83,466 |
OK |
| BMNR |
$22.88 |
10 | 18 |
10 | 27 |
$17.13 |
8 | 2.28x |
56.3% |
SAFE |
50 |
$31,250 | $114,375 |
OK |
| COIN |
$205.44 |
165 | 240 |
85 | 0 |
$210.90 |
155 | 10.23x |
58.6% |
SAFE |
8 |
$13,440 | $164,356 |
OK |
| ETHA |
$17.92 |
13 | 16 |
10 | 0 |
$17.33 |
6 | 2.39x |
44.2% |
SAFE |
50 |
$21,650 | $89,601 |
OK |
| FSLR |
$209.29 |
140 | 175 |
125 | 225 |
$187.95 |
50 | 2.04x |
40.3% |
SAFE |
5 |
$23,975 | $104,645 |
OK |
| HIMS |
$27.60 |
10 | 20 |
5 | 0 |
$17.47 |
15 | 4.04x |
81.9% |
SAFE |
15 |
$7,395 | $41,400 |
OK |
| HOOD |
$77.59 |
50 | 65 |
25 | 0 |
$66.00 |
40 | 3.50x |
67.8% |
SAFE |
8 |
$12,800 | $62,072 |
OK |
| IREN |
$50.25 |
25 | 47 |
35 | 57 |
$44.00 |
12 | 1.75x |
30.3% |
SAFE |
40 |
$64,000 | $201,000 |
OK |
| MRVL |
$165.24 |
115 | 140 |
50 | 175 |
$149.10 |
90 | 3.64x |
69.7% |
SAFE |
3 |
$10,230 | $49,572 |
OK |
| MU |
$585.45 |
330 | 390 |
135 | 600 |
$433.00 |
255 | 3.48x |
76.9% |
SAFE |
5 |
$51,500 | $292,725 |
OK |
| NEM |
$109.64 |
88 | 105 |
75 | 117 |
$114.54 |
30 | 2.11x |
31.6% |
SAFE |
5 |
$13,520 | $54,822 |
OK |
| NVDA |
$197.79 |
135 | 165 |
65 | 0 |
$198.80 |
100 | 2.57x |
67.1% |
SAFE |
15 |
$95,700 | $296,685 |
OK |
| PLTR |
$146.73 |
100 | 120 |
45 | 155 |
$134.35 |
75 | 3.18x |
69.3% |
SAFE |
10 |
$34,350 | $146,730 |
OK |
| RKLB |
$80.63 |
47 | 60 |
30 | 0 |
$70.23 |
30 | 2.29x |
62.8% |
SAFE |
15 |
$34,845 | $120,952 |
OK |
GLD: HP 410P Roll-Down · exp Jun 30 '26, 57d (no viable candidates)
Stock: $418.75
Current HP: 410P (57d, 2.1% OTM)
Current hedge: $69,158/yr
Gap: 40
IV: LOW
No HP candidates passed all filters. Reasons:
- 46 candidate(s) priced
- 30 rejected by gap-mult cap (2.0x current gap = 80). Try
--gap-mult 3.0 or higher to allow wider SP-HP gap. - 16 rejected for being inside the 12% OTM floor (LOW IV).
NOW: HP 105P Roll-Down · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d (no viable candidates)
Stock: $94.81
Current HP: 105P (45d, -10.7% OTM)
Current hedge: $112,744/yr
Gap: 5
IV: HIGH
No HP candidates passed all filters. Reasons:
- 5 candidate(s) priced
- 4 rejected by gap-mult cap (2.0x current gap = 10). Try
--gap-mult 3.0 or higher to allow wider SP-HP gap. - 1 rejected for being inside the 8% OTM floor (HIGH IV).
TSLA: HP 355P Roll-Down · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d
Stock: $390.39
HP: 9.1% OTM
Current hedge: $35,283/yr
SS: $421.00 (unchanged)
Shares: 500
CC income: $39,471/yr
IV: MEDIUM
OTM floor: 10%
Stress: 15% DD
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
5 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 355 → 350 (Aug 21, 109d) |
Save $3,806/yr |
Payback 8mo (0.66yr) hedge only, 1mo (0.06yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) |
HP moves to 10.3% OTM |
RM 1.37x → 1.41x
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% | ASK |
ROLL CR/SH | ROLL TOTAL | HEDGE/YR | STRESS/YR | SAVED/YR |
GAP | ML+ | PAYBACK | PB+INC | NEW RM | |
| 1 |
350 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
10.3% |
$18.80 |
$-10.25 |
$-5,125 |
$31,477 |
$46,278 |
$3,806 |
50 |
$2,500 |
8mo |
1mo |
1.41x |
PASS |
| 2 |
340 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
12.9% |
$15.65 |
$-7.10 |
$-3,550 |
$26,203 |
$53,143 |
$9,080 |
60 |
$7,500 |
10mo |
2mo |
1.50x |
PASS |
| 3 |
330 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
15.5% |
$12.95 |
$-4.40 |
$-2,200 |
$21,682 |
$60,108 |
$13,601 |
70 |
$12,500 |
11mo |
3mo |
1.58x |
PASS |
| 4 |
320 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
18.0% |
$10.65 |
$-2.10 |
$-1,050 |
$17,831 |
$51,820 |
$17,452 |
80 |
$17,500 |
12mo |
4mo |
1.66x |
PASS |
| 5 |
310 |
Aug 21 |
109d |
20.6% |
$8.70 |
$-0.15 |
$-75 |
$14,567 |
$37,505 |
$20,717 |
90 |
$22,500 |
13mo |
4mo |
1.74x |
PASS |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 05 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $425, B $7.80 |
$43,875/yr |
$31,477/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $425 0.7σ, B $7.80 |
$43,875/yr |
$31,477/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| AT 15% DRAWDOWN (stock $390.39 → $331.83, hedge $46,278/yr) |
| CC at SS vs stressed |
$43,875/yr |
$46,278/yr |
DEFICIT $200/mo |
| CC at MID vs stressed |
$43,875/yr |
$46,278/yr |
DEFICIT $200/mo |
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at MID ($425, bid $7.80) in NORMAL markets. Self-funds today.
In 15% drawdown, even MID is short ~$200/mo — tighten CCs above MID (closer to ATM) OR plan to inject capital.
CIFR: HP 8P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d
Stock: $18.14
Current HP: 8P (45d, 55.9% OTM)
Current hedge: $5,272/yr
Current ML: $68,000
CC income: $204,387/yr
Cost cap: 25% of CC = $51,097/yr
IV: HIGH
6 qualifying
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 8 → 11P
(Jul 17 '26, 74d, 39.3% OTM) |
Cost: $12,331/yr (6% of CC) |
New ML: $53,000 ↓ $15,000 |
Roll DEBIT $2,400
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 8 → 15P
(Jul 17 '26, 74d, 17.3% OTM) |
Cost: $41,432/yr (20% of CC) |
New ML: $33,000 ↓ $35,000 |
Roll DEBIT $8,300
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% |
BID | ASK | HEDGE/YR | %CC |
NEW ML | ΔML | ROLL |
| ▶ 1 |
11 CHEAP |
Jul 17 |
74d |
39.3% |
$0.41 |
$0.50 |
$12,331 |
6% |
$53,000 |
-$15,000 |
D $2,400 |
| 2 |
10 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
44.9% |
$0.09 |
$0.90 |
$22,196 |
11% |
$58,000 |
-$10,000 |
D $4,400 |
| 3 |
12 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
33.8% |
$0.45 |
$1.00 |
$24,662 |
12% |
$48,000 |
-$20,000 |
D $4,900 |
| 4 |
13 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
28.3% |
$0.44 |
$1.03 |
$25,402 |
12% |
$43,000 |
-$25,000 |
D $5,050 |
| 5 |
14 |
Jul 17 |
74d |
22.8% |
$0.92 |
$1.32 |
$32,554 |
16% |
$38,000 |
-$30,000 |
D $6,500 |
| ▶ 6 |
15 PROT |
Jul 17 |
74d |
17.3% |
$1.25 |
$1.68 |
$41,432 |
20% |
$33,000 |
-$35,000 |
D $8,300 |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 05 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $18, B $1.95 |
$109,688/yr |
$12,331/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $22 0.6σ, B $0.44 |
$24,750/yr |
$12,331/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($18, bid $1.95). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
COPX: HP 71P Maintenance Roll · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d (no qualifying candidates)
Stock: $77.95
Current HP: 71P (45d)
Current ML: $235,000
CC income: $121,382/yr
Cost cap: 25% of CC = $30,346/yr
IV: HIGH
No HP candidates passed all filters. Reasons:
- 5 candidate(s) priced
- 4 rejected for being inside the 8% OTM floor (HIGH IV).
- 1 rejected for exceeding cost cap ($30,346/yr = 25% of CC). Try
--maint-cost-cap 0.50.
HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.
Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.
EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.
Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).