FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-05-11 23:21:32
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$194,468/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$14,273/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$180,195/yr
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$30,000
PORTFOLIO ACTION SUMMARY · 18 positions
3 · ROLL NOW2 · REPAIR PLAN13 · OK
Click any ticker row below to jump to its analysis section.
Fortress Position Overview
| TICKER | STOCK | LC | SP | HP | SC |
SS | GAP | RM | HP OTM% | STATUS | CTRS | IC | NOTIONAL | URGENCY |
| CIFR → |
$21.09 |
12 | 17 |
8 | 0 |
$16.80 |
9 | 2.96x |
62.1% |
SAFE |
50 |
$23,000 | $105,450 |
ROLL NOW (38d) |
| COPX → |
$88.31 |
50 | 90 |
71 | 95 |
$84.00 |
19 | 1.68x |
19.6% |
SAFE |
50 |
$140,000 | $441,525 |
ROLL NOW (38d) |
| TSLA → |
$429.96 |
300 | 400 |
355 | 440 |
$421.00 |
45 | 1.37x |
17.4% |
SAFE |
5 |
$60,500 | $214,980 |
ROLL NOW (38d) |
| GLD → |
$434.11 |
320 | 450 |
410 | 458 |
$456.00 |
40 | 1.29x |
5.6% |
OK |
10 |
$136,000 | $434,110 |
REPAIR PLAN (50d) |
| NOW → |
$91.45 |
80 | 110 |
105 | 0 |
$108.93 |
5 | 1.18x |
-14.8% |
ITM |
10 |
$27,850 | $91,455 |
REPAIR PLAN (38d) |
| ARM |
$210.49 |
175 | 230 |
70 | 0 |
$212.00 |
160 | 9.42x |
66.7% |
SAFE |
2 |
$3,800 | $42,097 |
OK |
| AVGO |
$429.70 |
300 | 350 |
155 | 455 |
$374.36 |
195 | 3.62x |
63.9% |
SAFE |
2 |
$14,872 | $85,940 |
OK |
| BMNR |
$22.42 |
10 | 18 |
10 | 0 |
$17.13 |
8 | 2.28x |
55.4% |
SAFE |
50 |
$31,250 | $112,076 |
OK |
| COIN |
$207.67 |
165 | 240 |
85 | 0 |
$210.90 |
155 | 10.23x |
59.1% |
SAFE |
8 |
$13,440 | $166,136 |
OK |
| ETHA |
$17.52 |
13 | 16 |
10 | 0 |
$17.33 |
6 | 2.39x |
42.9% |
SAFE |
50 |
$21,650 | $87,575 |
OK |
| FSLR |
$233.22 |
140 | 175 |
125 | 0 |
$187.95 |
50 | 2.04x |
46.4% |
SAFE |
5 |
$23,975 | $116,612 |
OK |
| HIMS |
$29.72 |
10 | 20 |
5 | 0 |
$17.47 |
15 | 4.04x |
83.2% |
SAFE |
15 |
$7,395 | $44,580 |
OK |
| HOOD |
$78.10 |
50 | 65 |
25 | 0 |
$66.00 |
40 | 3.50x |
68.0% |
SAFE |
8 |
$12,800 | $62,480 |
OK |
| IREN |
$57.59 |
25 | 47 |
35 | 57 |
$44.00 |
12 | 1.75x |
39.2% |
SAFE |
40 |
$64,000 | $230,340 |
OK |
| MRVL |
$172.23 |
115 | 140 |
50 | 0 |
$149.10 |
90 | 3.64x |
71.0% |
SAFE |
3 |
$10,230 | $51,669 |
OK |
| NEM |
$120.00 |
88 | 105 |
75 | 0 |
$114.54 |
30 | 2.11x |
37.5% |
SAFE |
5 |
$13,520 | $60,000 |
OK |
| NVDA |
$220.69 |
135 | 165 |
65 | 0 |
$198.80 |
100 | 2.57x |
70.5% |
SAFE |
15 |
$95,700 | $331,035 |
OK |
| RKLB |
$116.81 |
47 | 60 |
30 | 0 |
$70.23 |
30 | 2.29x |
74.3% |
SAFE |
15 |
$34,845 | $175,215 |
OK |
GLD: HP 410P Roll-Down · exp Jun 30 '26, 50d
Stock: $434.11
HP: 5.6% OTM
Current hedge: $42,705/yr
SS: $456.00 (unchanged)
Shares: 1,000
CC income: $41,688/yr
IV: LOW
OTM floor: 12%
Stress: 10% DD
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
6 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 410 → 380 (Jul 17, 67d) |
Save $28,432/yr |
Payback 13mo (1.06yr) hedge only, 5mo (0.43yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) |
HP moves to 12.5% OTM |
RM 1.29x → 1.51x
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% | ASK |
ROLL CR/SH | ROLL TOTAL | HEDGE/YR | STRESS/YR | SAVED/YR |
GAP | ML+ | PAYBACK | PB+INC | NEW RM | |
| 1 |
380 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
12.5% |
$2.62 |
$3.03 |
$3,030 |
$14,273 |
$57,474 |
$28,432 |
70 |
$30,000 |
13mo |
5mo |
1.51x |
PASS |
| 2 |
380 |
Aug 21 |
102d |
12.5% |
$4.60 |
$1.05 |
$1,050 |
$16,461 |
$50,098 |
$26,244 |
70 |
$30,000 |
14mo |
5mo |
1.51x |
PASS |
| 3 |
375 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
13.6% |
$2.21 |
$3.44 |
$3,440 |
$12,040 |
$48,757 |
$30,665 |
75 |
$35,000 |
14mo |
6mo |
1.55x |
PASS |
| 4 |
375 |
Aug 21 |
102d |
13.6% |
$4.00 |
$1.65 |
$1,650 |
$14,314 |
$43,657 |
$28,391 |
75 |
$35,000 |
15mo |
6mo |
1.55x |
PASS |
| 5 |
370 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
14.8% |
$1.88 |
$3.77 |
$3,770 |
$10,242 |
$41,131 |
$32,463 |
80 |
$40,000 |
15mo |
6mo |
1.59x |
PASS |
| 6 |
370 |
Aug 21 |
102d |
14.8% |
$3.45 |
$2.20 |
$2,200 |
$12,346 |
$38,468 |
$30,359 |
80 |
$40,000 |
16mo |
7mo |
1.59x |
PASS |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 12 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $445, B $8.75 |
$98,438/yr |
$14,273/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $445 0.3σ, B $8.75 |
$98,438/yr |
$14,273/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| AT 10% DRAWDOWN (stock $434.11 → $390.70, hedge $57,474/yr) |
| CC at SS vs stressed |
$98,438/yr |
$57,474/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID vs stressed |
$98,438/yr |
$57,474/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($445, bid $8.75). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 10% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
NOW: HP 105P Roll-Down · exp Jun 18 '26, 38d (no viable candidates)
Stock: $91.45
Current HP: 105P (38d, -14.8% OTM)
Current hedge: $151,763/yr
Gap: 5
IV: HIGH
No HP candidates passed all filters. Reasons:
- 5 candidate(s) priced
- 4 rejected by gap-mult cap (2.0x current gap = 10). Try
--gap-mult 3.0 or higher to allow wider SP-HP gap. - 1 rejected for being inside the 8% OTM floor (HIGH IV).
CIFR: HP 8P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Jun 18 '26, 38d
Stock: $21.09
Current HP: 8P (38d, 62.1% OTM)
Current hedge: $2,401/yr
Current ML: $68,000
CC income: $362,570/yr
Cost cap: 25% of CC = $90,642/yr
IV: HIGH
9 qualifying
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 8 → 12P
(Jul 17 '26, 67d, 43.1% OTM) |
Cost: $14,437/yr (4% of CC) |
New ML: $48,000 ↓ $20,000 |
Roll DEBIT $2,650
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 8 → 17P
(Jul 17 '26, 67d, 19.4% OTM) |
Cost: $46,851/yr (13% of CC) |
New ML: $23,000 ↓ $45,000 |
Roll DEBIT $8,600
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% |
BID | ASK | HEDGE/YR | %CC |
NEW ML | ΔML | ROLL |
| ▶ 1 |
12 CHEAP |
Jul 17 |
67d |
43.1% |
$0.29 |
$0.53 |
$14,437 |
4% |
$48,000 |
-$20,000 |
D $2,650 |
| 2 |
11 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
47.8% |
$0.02 |
$0.59 |
$16,071 |
4% |
$53,000 |
-$15,000 |
D $2,950 |
| 3 |
13 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
38.4% |
$0.32 |
$0.73 |
$19,884 |
5% |
$43,000 |
-$25,000 |
D $3,650 |
| 4 |
14 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
33.6% |
$0.44 |
$0.88 |
$23,970 |
7% |
$38,000 |
-$30,000 |
D $4,400 |
| 5 |
15 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
28.9% |
$0.86 |
$1.08 |
$29,418 |
8% |
$33,000 |
-$35,000 |
D $5,400 |
| 6 |
16 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
24.1% |
$1.16 |
$1.35 |
$36,772 |
10% |
$28,000 |
-$40,000 |
D $6,750 |
| ▶ 7 |
17 PROT |
Jul 17 |
67d |
19.4% |
$1.33 |
$1.72 |
$46,851 |
13% |
$23,000 |
-$45,000 |
D $8,600 |
| 8 |
18 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
14.7% |
$1.90 |
$2.12 |
$57,746 |
16% |
$23,000 |
-$45,000 |
D $10,600 |
| 9 |
19 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
9.9% |
$2.32 |
$2.57 |
$70,004 |
19% |
$23,000 |
-$45,000 |
D $12,850 |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 12 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $21, B $2.46 |
$138,375/yr |
$14,437/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $26 0.7σ, B $0.01 |
$562/yr |
$14,437/yr |
DEFICIT $1,156/mo |
SUSTAINABLE AT SS Conservative CC covers repaired hedge
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($21, bid $2.46). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
COPX: HP 71P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Jun 18 '26, 38d
Stock: $88.31
Current HP: 71P (38d, 19.6% OTM)
Current hedge: $40,822/yr
Current ML: $235,000
CC income: $530,516/yr
Cost cap: 25% of CC = $132,629/yr
IV: HIGH
6 qualifying
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 71 → 71P
(Jul 17 '26, 67d, 19.6% OTM) |
Cost: $59,925/yr (11% of CC) |
New ML: $235,000 = ML |
Roll DEBIT $8,500
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 71 → 80P
(Jul 17 '26, 67d, 9.4% OTM) |
Cost: $103,507/yr (20% of CC) |
New ML: $190,000 ↓ $45,000 |
Roll DEBIT $16,500
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% |
BID | ASK | HEDGE/YR | %CC |
NEW ML | ΔML | ROLL |
| ▶ 1 |
71 CHEAP |
Jul 17 |
67d |
19.6% |
$0.95 |
$2.20 |
$59,925 |
11% |
$235,000 |
= |
D $8,500 |
| 2 |
75 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
15.1% |
$1.95 |
$2.30 |
$62,649 |
12% |
$215,000 |
-$20,000 |
D $9,000 |
| 3 |
72 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
18.5% |
$0.70 |
$2.40 |
$65,373 |
12% |
$230,000 |
-$5,000 |
D $9,500 |
| 4 |
73 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
17.3% |
$0.80 |
$2.75 |
$74,907 |
14% |
$225,000 |
-$10,000 |
D $11,250 |
| 5 |
74 |
Jul 17 |
67d |
16.2% |
$1.00 |
$2.90 |
$78,993 |
15% |
$220,000 |
-$15,000 |
D $12,000 |
| ▶ 6 |
80 PROT |
Jul 17 |
67d |
9.4% |
$3.50 |
$3.80 |
$103,507 |
20% |
$190,000 |
-$45,000 |
D $16,500 |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 12 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $87, B $5.00 |
$281,250/yr |
$59,925/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $100 0.8σ, B $1.55 |
$87,188/yr |
$59,925/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($87, bid $5.00). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
TSLA: HP 355P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Jun 18 '26, 38d
Stock: $429.96
Current HP: 355P (38d, 17.4% OTM)
Current hedge: $15,849/yr
Current ML: $83,000
CC income: $196,636/yr
Cost cap: 25% of CC = $49,159/yr
IV: HIGH
4 qualifying
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 355 → 360P
(Aug 21 '26, 102d, 16.3% OTM) |
Cost: $25,138/yr (13% of CC) |
New ML: $80,500 ↓ $2,500 |
Roll DEBIT $5,425
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 355 → 390P
(Aug 21 '26, 102d, 9.3% OTM) |
Cost: $41,062/yr (21% of CC) |
New ML: $65,500 ↓ $17,500 |
Roll DEBIT $9,875
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% |
BID | ASK | HEDGE/YR | %CC |
NEW ML | ΔML | ROLL |
| ▶ 1 |
360 CHEAP |
Aug 21 |
102d |
16.3% |
$13.55 |
$14.05 |
$25,138 |
13% |
$80,500 |
-$2,500 |
D $5,425 |
| 2 |
370 |
Aug 21 |
102d |
13.9% |
$16.20 |
$16.65 |
$29,790 |
15% |
$75,500 |
-$7,500 |
D $6,725 |
| 3 |
380 |
Aug 21 |
102d |
11.6% |
$19.15 |
$19.65 |
$35,158 |
18% |
$70,500 |
-$12,500 |
D $8,225 |
| ▶ 4 |
390 PROT |
Aug 21 |
102d |
9.3% |
$22.50 |
$22.95 |
$41,062 |
21% |
$65,500 |
-$17,500 |
D $9,875 |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jun 12 (32d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $425, B $28.05 |
$157,781/yr |
$25,138/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
| CC at MID $470 0.6σ, B $11.45 |
$64,406/yr |
$25,138/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($425, bid $28.05). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.
Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.
EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.
Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).