GENERATED2026-09-23 03:51
FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$293,563/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$65,999/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$227,564/yr
ROLL CREDITS
$67,720
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$-32,500
PORTFOLIO ACTION SUMMARY · 42 positions
2 · ROLL NOW3 · REPAIR PLAN7 · LEAPS-ONLY30 · OK
Click any ticker row below to jump to its analysis section.
What do these actions mean? (legend)
NO HEDGE — No HP leg at all — naked synthetic long, no catastrophic protection.
ROLL IMMEDIATELY — Healthy fortress, HP expires ≤14d — roll the hedge out NOW (theta cliff).
REPAIR NOW — Structurally bad (HP ITM/tight or costly) AND ≤14d — roll HP DOWN today.
REPAIR SOON — Structurally bad AND ≤35d — roll HP DOWN this week.
ROLL NOW — Healthy fortress, HP ≤45d — roll the hedge OUT (maintain/raise strike).
REPAIR PLAN — Structurally bad but >35d runway — plan the roll-down, no rush.
LEAPS-ONLY — CSV-declared SP=0/HP=0 — intentional LC-only structure, no hedge to roll.
OK — Healthy structure with ample HP runway — no action.
REPAIR = roll HP down to a cheaper OTM strike (structure is hurting). ROLL = roll HP out/up to a later expiry (structure is healthy, hedge just expiring).

Fortress Position Overview

FORTRESSSTOCKLCSPHPSC BE‑SS CC‑SS GAPRMHP OTM%STATUSCTRSICNOTIONALURGENCY
Joint (...1782)9 fortress(es) · 5 actionable · IC $502,060 · notional $1,656,898
IREN (Joint) →
+25C −47P +35P −55C
$48.59 2547 3555 $44.00 $50.52 121.75x 28.0% SAFE 20 $32,000$97,190 ROLL NOW (24d)
AMZN →
+200C −250P +215P −275C
$255.36 200250 215275 $267.92 $270.58 351.52x 15.8% SAFE 5 $33,960$127,680 REPAIR PLAN (59d)
GOOG (Joint)
+310C −355C
$348.41 3100 0355 $392.50 $347.62 01.00x 0.0% N/A 5 $41,250$174,205 LEAPS-ONLY
IBIT
+75C
$48.87 750 00 $70.58 $51.07 01.00x 0.0% N/A 50 $22,328$244,350 LEAPS-ONLY
MSTR (Joint)
+180C −170C
$168.01 1800 0170 $233.00 $165.99 01.00x 0.0% N/A 10 $53,000$168,010 LEAPS-ONLY
BMNR (Joint)
+23C −18P +25P
$28.72 2318 250 $36.42 $23.76 01.00x 13.0% SAFE 150 $201,300$430,800 OK
COPX
+65C −90P +68P −92C
$90.29 6590 6892 $93.40 $95.17 221.77x 24.7% SAFE 20 $56,800$180,580 OK
HOOD
+65C −95P +80P −145C
$124.59 6595 80145 $114.95 $119.60 151.30x 35.8% SAFE 10 $49,950$124,590 OK
MU (Joint)
+670C −800P +420P −1150C
$1094.93 670800 4201150 $792.36 $806.01 3804.31x 61.6% SAFE 1 $11,472$109,493 OK
Main (...1299)14 fortress(es) · 4 actionable · IC $1,208,360 · notional $3,631,967
IREN (Main) →
+25C −47P +35P −55C
$48.59 2547 3555 $44.00 $50.52 121.75x 28.0% SAFE 20 $32,000$97,190 ROLL NOW (24d)
BMNR (Main) →
+25C −18P +45P
$28.72 2518 450 $65.83 $59.03 01.00x -56.7% ITM 50 $204,150$143,600 REPAIR PLAN (115d)
IGV
+70C −111C
$106.83 700 0111 $96.50 $87.91 01.00x 0.0% N/A 12 $31,800$128,196 LEAPS-ONLY
MARA (Main)
+13C
$13.71 130 00 $16.75 $10.89 01.00x 0.0% N/A 400 $150,000$548,400 LEAPS-ONLY
BMNR (Main)
+23C −18P +25P
$28.72 2318 250 $53.26 $46.42 01.00x 13.0% SAFE 75 $226,950$215,400 OK
COIN (Main)
+165C −240P +90P −240C
$201.41 165240 90240 $210.90 $214.15 1509.93x 55.3% SAFE 8 $13,440$161,128 OK
COIN (Main)
+500C −330P +300P −240C
$201.41 500330 300240 $563.00 $363.61 301.48x -48.9% ITM 25 $157,500$503,525 OK
DELL
+310C −400P +320P
$550.31 310400 3200 $562.50 $571.73 801.32x 41.9% SAFE 3 $75,750$165,093 OK
ETHA
+13C −16P +10P
$20.75 1316 100 $17.33 $17.60 62.39x 51.8% SAFE 50 $21,650$103,750 OK
GLD
+320C −450P +330P −445C
$400.47 320450 330445 $456.00 $468.40 1201.88x 17.6% SAFE 10 $136,000$400,470 OK
GLXY
+38C −38P +18P −32C
$27.37 3838 1832 $39.71 $35.27 2010.05x 36.1% SAFE 125 $27,625$342,125 OK
HIMS
+10C −20P +5P −35C
$30.65 1020 535 $17.47 $18.68 154.04x 83.7% SAFE 15 $7,395$45,975 OK
MU (Main)
+880C −1010P +340P −1350C
$1094.93 8801010 3401350 $1028.60 $1044.99 6705.51x 68.9% SAFE 5 $74,300$547,465 OK
NVDA
+215C −225P +200P −250C
$229.65 215225 200250 $264.80 $229.22 251.50x 12.9% SAFE 10 $49,800$229,650 OK
RetireInc (...7291)9 fortress(es) · 2 actionable · IC $180,200 · notional $1,267,118
AAPL →
+240C −330P +285P −360C
$339.89 240330 285360 $334.64 $336.68 451.48x 16.1% SAFE 5 $47,320$169,945 REPAIR PLAN (59d)
MARA (RetireInc)
+40C
$13.71 400 00 $41.04 $11.40 01.00x 0.0% N/A 500 $52,000$685,500 LEAPS-ONLY
APP
+460C −540P +185P −370C
$329.21 460540 185370 $588.00 $608.84 3553.77x 43.8% SAFE 1 $12,800$32,921 OK
CLSK
+17C −17P +10P
$15.12 1717 100 $20.74 $18.13 72.87x 33.9% SAFE 25 $9,350$37,800 OK
ENPH
+45C −60P +20P
$34.49 4560 200 $56.15 $58.76 406.48x 42.0% SAFE 10 $7,300$34,490 OK
IREN (RetireInc)
+50C −70P +23P −58C
$48.59 5070 2358 $63.43 $66.61 477.86x 52.7% SAFE 20 $13,700$97,190 OK
MSTR (RetireInc)
+125C −185P +55P −170C
$168.01 125185 55170 $161.00 $162.57 13011.83x 67.3% SAFE 4 $4,800$67,204 OK
QCOM
+190C −210P +100P −220C
$197.52 190210 100220 $224.00 $226.87 1104.24x 49.4% SAFE 5 $17,000$98,760 OK
RKLB
+115C −135P +45P
$72.18 115135 450 $141.55 $147.22 904.39x 37.7% SAFE 6 $15,930$43,308 OK
Neville (...0865)10 fortress(es) · 1 actionable · IC $441,025 · notional $2,361,762
SPY
+640C −782C
$774.59 6400 0782 $764.00 $701.83 01.00x 0.0% N/A 12 $148,800$929,508 LEAPS-ONLY
CRCL
+45C −65P +40P −115C
$95.13 4565 40115 $87.00 $91.26 251.60x 58.0% SAFE 5 $21,000$47,565 OK
CRWV
+105C −120P +40P −100C
$87.10 105120 40100 $125.45 $128.33 804.91x 54.1% SAFE 5 $10,225$43,550 OK
GOOG (Neville)
+300C −345P +310P −375C
$348.41 300345 310375 $373.00 $345.08 351.48x 11.0% SAFE 15 $109,500$522,615 OK
GOOG (Neville)
+340C −405P +360P −375C
$348.41 340405 360375 $398.00 $383.32 451.88x -3.3% ITM 5 $25,500$174,205 OK
INTC
+85C −100P +35P −160C
$123.43 85100 35160 $114.00 $115.66 653.24x 71.6% SAFE 5 $14,500$61,715 OK
IREN (Neville)
+45C −65P +21P −58C
$48.59 4565 2158 $56.50 $58.18 4415.67x 56.8% SAFE 20 $6,000$97,190 OK
MU (Neville)
+970C −1110P +390P −1250C
$1094.93 9701110 3901250 $1220.00 $1232.46 7203.88x 64.4% SAFE 2 $50,000$218,986 OK
SNDK
+1200C −1380P +810P −2200C
$1894.13 12001380 8102200 $1620.00 $1632.61 5702.36x 57.2% SAFE 1 $42,000$189,413 OK
SPCX
+150C −195P +135P −165C
$154.03 150195 135165 $186.00 $189.54 603.22x 12.4% SAFE 5 $13,500$77,015 OK
Joint (...1782)9 fortress(es) · 5 actionable · overview rows

AMZN: HP 215P Roll-Down · exp Nov 20 '26, 59d

RELAXED PASS — no candidate met the standard constraints. Widened gap-mult 2.0x → 8.0x; payback gate 1.0yr → 2.0yr to surface the best available option below. Treat as a guideline breach, not a clean repair.
Stock: $255.36 HP: 15.8% OTM Current hedge: $7,671/yr Baseline (roll-fwd, savings vs this): $7,697/yr SS: $267.92 (unchanged) Account: Joint (...1782) Contracts: 5 (500 sh) CC income: $13,439/yr IV: MEDIUM OTM floor: 10% Stress: 11% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 4 PASS ⚠ ER 2026-10-29 AMC (37d) inside new HP tenor
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 215 → 210 (Jan 15, 115d) | Save $1,349/yr | Payback 22mo (1.85yr) hedge only, 2mo (0.17yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 17.8% OTM | RM 1.52x → 1.59x | Margin (TIMS): $4,410
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 210 Jan 15 115d 17.8% $4.00 $-1.76 $-880 $6,348 $13,251 $1,349 40 $2,500 22mo 2mo 1.59x PASS
2 205 Dec 18 87d 19.7% $2.40 $-0.16 $-80 $5,034 $14,369 $2,662 45 $5,000 23mo 4mo 1.66x PASS
3 205 Jan 15 115d 19.7% $3.20 $-0.96 $-480 $5,078 $10,871 $2,618 45 $5,000 23mo 4mo 1.66x PASS
4 210 Dec 18 87d 17.8% $3.05 $-0.81 $-405 $6,398 $17,516 $1,299 40 $2,500 23mo 2mo 1.59x PASS
5 180 Dec 18 87d 29.5% $0.80 $1.44 $720 $1,678 $5,034 $6,019 70 $17,500 35mo 11mo 2.03x FAIL
6 180 Jan 15 115d 29.5% $1.20 $1.04 $520 $1,904 $3,809 $5,792 70 $17,500 36mo 11mo 2.03x FAIL
7 185 Dec 18 87d 27.6% $1.02 $1.22 $610 $2,140 $6,398 $5,557 65 $15,000 32mo 9mo 1.96x FAIL
8 185 Jan 15 115d 27.6% $1.39 $0.85 $425 $2,206 $4,840 $5,491 65 $15,000 33mo 10mo 1.96x FAIL
9 190 Dec 18 87d 25.6% $1.30 $0.94 $470 $2,727 $7,866 $4,970 60 $12,500 30mo 8mo 1.88x FAIL
10 190 Jan 15 115d 25.6% $1.87 $0.37 $185 $2,968 $5,951 $4,729 60 $12,500 32mo 8mo 1.88x FAIL
11 195 Dec 18 87d 23.6% $1.59 $0.65 $325 $3,335 $9,335 $4,361 55 $10,000 28mo 7mo 1.81x FAIL
12 195 Jan 15 115d 23.6% $2.20 $0.04 $20 $3,491 $7,062 $4,205 55 $10,000 29mo 7mo 1.81x FAIL
13 200 Dec 18 87d 21.7% $1.93 $0.31 $155 $4,049 $11,852 $3,648 50 $7,500 25mo 5mo 1.74x FAIL
14 200 Jan 15 115d 21.7% $2.68 $-0.44 $-220 $4,253 $8,966 $3,444 50 $7,500 26mo 5mo 1.74x FAIL
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Oct 23 (31d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $275, B $2.55 $14,806/yr $6,348/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $270 0.7σ, B $3.70 $21,484/yr $6,348/yr SELF-FUNDING
AT 11% DRAWDOWN (stock $255.36 → $226.23, hedge $13,251/yr)
CC at SS income stress-adjusted $697/yr $13,251/yr DEFICIT $1,046/mo
CC at MID income stress-adjusted $1,103/yr $13,251/yr DEFICIT $1,012/mo
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at MID ($270, bid $3.70) in NORMAL markets. Self-funds today.
In 11% drawdown, even MID is short ~$1,012/mo — tighten CCs above MID (closer to ATM) OR plan to inject capital.

IREN (Joint): HP 35P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Oct 16 '26, 24d

Stock: $48.59 Current HP: 35P (24d, 28.0% OTM) Current hedge: $10,950/yr Current ML: $56,000 If HP lapses: ML $126,000 (+$70,000) Account: Joint (...1782) Contracts: 20 (2,000 sh) CC income: $92,027/yr Cost cap: 25% of CC = $23,007/yr IV: HIGH 3 qualifying ⚠ ER 2026-11-05 INTRADAY (44d) inside new HP tenor
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 35 → 35P (Jan 15 '27, 115d, 28.0% OTM) | Cost: $19,361/yr (21% of CC) | New ML: $56,000 = ML | Roll DEBIT $5,520 | Margin (TIMS): $1,764
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 35 → 36P (Dec 18 '26, 87d, 25.9% OTM) | Cost: $21,648/yr (24% of CC) | New ML: $54,000 ↓ $2,000 | Roll DEBIT $4,580 | Margin (TIMS): $1,710
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM% BIDASKHEDGE/YR%CC NEW MLΔMLROLL
1 35 CHEAP Jan 15 115d 28.0% $2.97 $3.05 $19,361 21% $56,000 = D $5,520
2 35 Dec 18 87d 28.0% $2.10 $2.32 $19,467 21% $56,000 = D $4,060
3 36 PROT Dec 18 87d 25.9% $2.38 $2.58 $21,648 24% $54,000 -$2,000 D $4,580
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Oct 23 (31d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $51, B $3.45 $80,129/yr $19,361/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $56 0.6σ, B $2.03 $47,148/yr $19,361/yr SELF-FUNDING
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($51, bid $3.45). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
Main (...1299)14 fortress(es) · 4 actionable · overview rows

BMNR (Main): HP 45P Roll-Down · exp Jan 15 '27, 115d

Stock: $28.72 HP: ITM Current hedge: $281,685/yr Baseline: current hedge (no same-strike quote) SS: $65.83 (unchanged) Account: Main (...1299) Contracts: 50 (5,000 sh) CC income: $102,966/yr IV: HIGH OTM floor: 8% Stress: 25% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 5 PASS ⚠ ER 2026-11-20 INTRADAY (59d) inside new HP tenor
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 45 → 26 (Jan 15, 115d) | Save $225,348/yr | Payback N/A hedge only, N/A w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 9.5% OTM | RM 1.00x → 0.80x | Margin (TIMS): $413
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 26 Jan 15 115d 9.5% $3.55 $13.75 $68,750 $56,337 $56,654 $225,348 -8 $-40,000 N/A N/A 0.80x PASS
2 25 Jan 15 115d 13.0% $3.05 $14.25 $71,250 $48,402 $61,415 $233,283 -7 $-35,000 N/A N/A 0.83x PASS
3 24 Jan 15 115d 16.4% $2.63 $14.67 $73,350 $41,737 $61,415 $239,948 -6 $-30,000 N/A N/A 0.85x PASS
4 22 Jan 15 115d 21.7% $2.04 $15.26 $76,300 $32,374 $71,730 $249,311 -4 $-22,500 N/A N/A 0.89x PASS
5 21 Jan 15 115d 26.9% $1.55 $15.75 $78,750 $24,598 $73,000 $257,087 -3 $-15,000 N/A N/A 0.93x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Oct 23 (31d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS BELOW SS $59 — assignment locks a loss · $39, B $0.42 $24,387/yr $56,337/yr DEFICIT $2,662/mo
CC at MID $33 0.7σ, B $1.10 $63,871/yr $56,337/yr SELF-FUNDING
AT 25% DRAWDOWN (stock $28.72 → $21.67, hedge $56,654/yr)
CC at SS income stress-adjusted $24,387/yr $56,654/yr DEFICIT $2,689/mo
CC at MID income stress-adjusted $24,387/yr $56,654/yr DEFICIT $2,689/mo
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at MID ($33, bid $1.10) in NORMAL markets. Self-funds today.
In 25% drawdown, even MID is short ~$2,689/mo — tighten CCs above MID (closer to ATM) OR plan to inject capital.

IREN (Main): HP 35P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Oct 16 '26, 24d

Stock: $48.59 Current HP: 35P (24d, 28.0% OTM) Current hedge: $10,950/yr Current ML: $56,000 If HP lapses: ML $126,000 (+$70,000) Account: Main (...1299) Contracts: 20 (2,000 sh) CC income: $92,027/yr Cost cap: 25% of CC = $23,007/yr IV: HIGH 3 qualifying ⚠ ER 2026-11-05 INTRADAY (44d) inside new HP tenor
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 35 → 35P (Jan 15 '27, 115d, 28.0% OTM) | Cost: $19,361/yr (21% of CC) | New ML: $56,000 = ML | Roll DEBIT $5,520 | Margin: n/a (RTH)
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 35 → 36P (Dec 18 '26, 87d, 25.9% OTM) | Cost: $21,648/yr (24% of CC) | New ML: $54,000 ↓ $2,000 | Roll DEBIT $4,580 | Margin: n/a (RTH)
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM% BIDASKHEDGE/YR%CC NEW MLΔMLROLL
1 35 CHEAP Jan 15 115d 28.0% $2.97 $3.05 $19,361 21% $56,000 = D $5,520
2 35 Dec 18 87d 28.0% $2.10 $2.32 $19,467 21% $56,000 = D $4,060
3 36 PROT Dec 18 87d 25.9% $2.38 $2.58 $21,648 24% $54,000 -$2,000 D $4,580
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Oct 23 (31d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $51, B $3.45 $80,129/yr $19,361/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $56 0.6σ, B $2.03 $47,148/yr $19,361/yr SELF-FUNDING
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($51, bid $3.45). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.
RetireInc (...7291)9 fortress(es) · 2 actionable · overview rows

AAPL: HP 285P Roll-Down · exp Nov 20 '26, 59d

RELAXED PASS — no candidate met the standard constraints. Widened gap-mult 2.0x → 8.0x; payback gate 1.0yr → 5.0yr to surface the best available option below. Treat as a guideline breach, not a clean repair.
Stock: $339.89 HP: 16.1% OTM Current hedge: $4,207/yr Baseline (roll-fwd, savings vs this): $4,762/yr SS: $334.64 (unchanged) Account: RetireInc (...7291) Contracts: 5 (500 sh) CC income: $73,083/yr IV: MEDIUM OTM floor: 10% Stress: 10% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 9 PASS ⚠ ER 2026-10-29 AMC (37d) inside new HP tenor
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 285 → 275 (Dec 18, 87d) | Save $1,447/yr | Payback 41mo (3.45yr) hedge only, 1mo (0.07yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 19.1% OTM | RM 1.48x → 1.58x | Margin (TIMS): $6,181
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 275 Dec 18 87d 19.1% $1.58 $-0.30 $-150 $3,314 $10,069 $1,447 55 $5,000 41mo 1mo 1.58x PASS
2 270 Dec 18 87d 20.6% $1.34 $-0.06 $-30 $2,811 $8,181 $1,951 60 $7,500 46mo 1mo 1.63x PASS
3 280 Dec 18 87d 17.6% $1.98 $-0.70 $-350 $4,153 $11,747 $608 50 $2,500 49mo 0mo 1.53x PASS
4 265 Dec 18 87d 22.0% $1.12 $0.16 $80 $2,349 $7,027 $2,412 65 $10,000 50mo 2mo 1.69x PASS
5 280 Jan 15 115d 17.6% $2.63 $-1.35 $-675 $4,174 $8,887 $588 50 $2,500 51mo 0mo 1.53x PASS
6 275 Jan 15 115d 19.1% $2.28 $-1.00 $-500 $3,618 $7,617 $1,144 55 $5,000 52mo 1mo 1.58x PASS
7 270 Jan 15 115d 20.6% $1.93 $-0.65 $-325 $3,063 $6,189 $1,699 60 $7,500 53mo 1mo 1.63x PASS
8 265 Jan 15 115d 22.0% $1.62 $-0.34 $-170 $2,571 $5,316 $2,191 65 $10,000 55mo 2mo 1.69x PASS
9 260 Dec 18 87d 23.5% $1.01 $0.27 $135 $2,119 $5,790 $2,643 70 $12,500 57mo 2mo 1.74x PASS
10 240 Dec 18 87d 29.4% $0.54 $0.74 $370 $1,133 $2,349 $3,629 90 $22,500 74mo 4mo 1.95x FAIL
11 245 Dec 18 87d 27.9% $0.62 $0.66 $330 $1,301 $2,811 $3,461 85 $20,000 69mo 3mo 1.90x FAIL
12 240 Jan 15 115d 29.4% $0.88 $0.40 $200 $1,397 $1,777 $3,365 90 $22,500 80mo 4mo 1.95x FAIL
13 245 Jan 15 115d 27.9% $0.90 $0.38 $190 $1,428 $2,127 $3,334 85 $20,000 72mo 3mo 1.90x FAIL
14 250 Dec 18 87d 26.4% $0.72 $0.56 $280 $1,510 $4,153 $3,251 80 $17,500 65mo 3mo 1.85x FAIL
15 250 Jan 15 115d 26.4% $1.02 $0.26 $130 $1,619 $3,142 $3,143 80 $17,500 67mo 3mo 1.85x FAIL
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Oct 23 (31d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $340, B $9.35 $54,290/yr $3,314/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $355 0.7σ, B $3.45 $20,032/yr $3,314/yr SELF-FUNDING
AT 10% DRAWDOWN (stock $339.89 → $305.90, hedge $10,069/yr)
CC at SS income stress-adjusted $1,974/yr $10,069/yr DEFICIT $675/mo
CC at MID income stress-adjusted $406/yr $10,069/yr DEFICIT $805/mo
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at MID ($355, bid $3.45) in NORMAL markets. Self-funds today.
In 10% drawdown, even MID is short ~$805/mo — tighten CCs above MID (closer to ATM) OR plan to inject capital.

HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.

Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.

EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.

Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).