FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-06-27 10:42:28
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$15,513/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (CHEAPEST)
$12,002/yr
Δ HEDGE (CHEAPEST vs CURRENT)
-$3,510/yr
ROLL DEBIT (CHEAPEST)
-$2,900
MAX LOSS REDUCTION (PROTECTIVE)
-$0
Fortress Position Overview
| TICKER | STOCK | LC | SP | HP | SC |
SS | GAP | RM | HP OTM% | STATUS | CTRS | IC | NOTIONAL | URGENCY |
| ETHA → |
$11.90 |
13 | 16 |
10 | 0 |
$17.33 |
6 | 2.39x |
16.0% |
SAFE |
50 |
$21,650 | $59,500 |
ROLL NOW (20d) |
ETHA: HP 10P Maintenance Roll-Out · exp Jul 17 '26, 20d
RELAXED PASS — no candidate met the standard constraints. Widened cost cap 25% → 75% of CC to surface the best available option below. Treat as a guideline breach, not a clean repair.
Stock: $11.90
Current HP: 10P (20d, 16.0% OTM)
Current hedge: $15,513/yr
Current ML: $51,650
CC income: $18,352/yr
Cost cap: 75% of CC = $13,764/yr
IV: HIGH
1 qualifying
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 10 → 10P
(Oct 16 '26, 111d, 16.0% OTM) |
Cost: $12,002/yr (65% of CC) |
New ML: $51,650 = ML |
Roll DEBIT $2,900
PROTECTIVE PICK: same as CHEAPEST (no higher-strike candidate clears the cost cap).
| # | NEW HP | EXPIRY | DTE | OTM% |
BID | ASK | HEDGE/YR | %CC |
NEW ML | ΔML | ROLL |
| ▶ 1 |
10 CHEAP PROT |
Oct 16 |
111d |
16.0% |
$0.66 |
$0.73 |
$12,002 |
65% |
$51,650 |
= |
D $2,900 |
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY
CC chain Jul 31 (34d)
| SCENARIO |
CC INCOME |
HEDGE COST |
VERDICT |
| CC at SS $17, B $0.03 |
$1,588/yr |
$12,002/yr |
DEFICIT $868/mo |
| CC at MID $14 0.6σ, B $0.28 |
$14,585/yr |
$12,002/yr |
SELF-FUNDING |
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at MID ($14, bid $0.28). Self-funds in BOTH normal and 0% drawdown. At SS the position bleeds, so don't drift too far OTM.
HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.
Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.
EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.
Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).