FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-06-27 10:43:04
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$45,721/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$16,271/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$29,450/yr
ROLL CREDITS
$7,600
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$32,000

Fortress Position Overview

TICKERSTOCKLCSPHPSC SSGAPRMHP OTM%STATUSCTRSICNOTIONALURGENCY
GLD → $375.00 320450 362410 $456.00 881.65x 3.5% TIGHT 10 $136,000$375,000 REPAIR PLAN (95d)

GLD: HP 362P Roll-Down · exp Sep 30 '26, 95d

Stock: $375.00 HP: 3.5% OTM Current hedge: $45,721/yr SS: $456.00 (unchanged) Shares: 1,000 CC income: $29,774/yr IV: LOW OTM floor: 12% Stress: 10% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 65 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 362 → 330 (Sep 18, 83d) | Save $29,450/yr | Payback 13mo (1.09yr) hedge only, 6mo (0.54yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 12.0% OTM | RM 1.65x → 1.88x
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 330 Sep 18 83d 12.0% $3.70 $7.60 $7,600 $16,271 $60,687 $29,450 120 $32,000 13mo 6mo 1.88x PASS
2 330 Oct 16 111d 12.0% $5.00 $6.30 $6,300 $16,441 $45,378 $29,280 120 $32,000 13mo 7mo 1.88x PASS
3 330 Sep 30 95d 12.0% $4.35 $6.95 $6,950 $16,713 $53,021 $29,008 120 $32,000 13mo 7mo 1.88x PASS
4 329 Sep 18 83d 12.3% $3.60 $7.70 $7,700 $15,831 $58,928 $29,890 121 $33,000 13mo 7mo 1.89x PASS
5 329 Sep 30 95d 12.3% $4.20 $7.10 $7,100 $16,137 $51,484 $29,584 121 $33,000 13mo 7mo 1.89x PASS
6 328 Sep 18 83d 12.5% $3.45 $7.85 $7,850 $15,172 $55,630 $30,549 122 $34,000 13mo 7mo 1.90x PASS
7 328 Sep 30 95d 12.5% $4.10 $7.20 $7,200 $15,753 $48,603 $29,968 122 $34,000 14mo 7mo 1.90x PASS
8 327 Sep 18 83d 12.8% $3.35 $7.95 $7,950 $14,732 $53,431 $30,989 123 $35,000 14mo 7mo 1.90x PASS
9 327 Sep 30 95d 12.8% $3.95 $7.35 $7,350 $15,176 $46,682 $30,545 123 $35,000 14mo 7mo 1.90x PASS
10 326 Sep 18 83d 13.1% $3.25 $8.05 $8,050 $14,292 $52,331 $31,429 124 $36,000 14mo 7mo 1.91x PASS
11 326 Sep 30 95d 13.1% $3.85 $7.45 $7,450 $14,792 $45,721 $30,929 124 $36,000 14mo 7mo 1.91x PASS
12 325 Sep 30 95d 13.3% $3.60 $7.70 $7,700 $13,832 $44,376 $31,889 125 $37,000 14mo 7mo 1.92x PASS
13 325 Sep 18 83d 13.3% $3.15 $8.15 $8,150 $13,852 $50,792 $31,869 125 $37,000 14mo 7mo 1.92x PASS
14 325 Oct 16 111d 13.3% $4.30 $7.00 $7,000 $14,140 $37,980 $31,581 125 $37,000 14mo 7mo 1.92x PASS
15 324 Sep 18 83d 13.6% $3.00 $8.30 $8,300 $13,193 $49,253 $32,528 126 $38,000 14mo 7mo 1.93x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Jul 31 (34d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $387, B $5.65 $59,824/yr $16,271/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $387 0.4σ, B $5.65 $59,824/yr $16,271/yr SELF-FUNDING
AT 10% DRAWDOWN (stock $375.00 → $337.50, hedge $60,687/yr)
CC at SS vs stressed $59,824/yr $60,687/yr DEFICIT $72/mo
CC at MID vs stressed $59,824/yr $60,687/yr DEFICIT $72/mo
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at MID ($387, bid $5.65) in NORMAL markets. Self-funds today.
In 10% drawdown, even MID is short ~$72/mo — tighten CCs above MID (closer to ATM) OR plan to inject capital.

HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.

Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.

EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.

Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).