FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-05-04 23:13:40
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$70,439/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$14,748/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$55,691/yr
ROLL CREDITS
$7,760
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$45,000

Fortress Position Overview

TICKERSTOCKLCSPHPSC SSGAPRMHP OTM%STATUSCTRSICNOTIONALURGENCY
GLD → $418.22 320450 410458 $456.00 401.29x 2.0% TIGHT 10 $136,000$418,220 REPAIR PLAN (57d)

GLD: HP 410P Roll-Down · exp Jun 30 '26, 57d

Stock: $418.22 HP: 2.0% OTM Current hedge: $70,439/yr SS: $456.00 (unchanged) Shares: 1,000 CC income: $15,741/yr IV: LOW OTM floor: 12% Stress: 10% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 16 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 410 → 365 (Jul 17, 74d) | Save $55,691/yr | Payback 10mo (0.81yr) hedge only, 8mo (0.63yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 12.7% OTM | RM 1.29x → 1.62x
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 365 Jul 17 74d 12.7% $2.99 $7.76 $7,760 $14,748 $54,257 $55,691 85 $45,000 10mo 8mo 1.62x PASS
2 365 Aug 21 109d 12.7% $4.65 $6.10 $6,100 $15,571 $47,383 $54,867 85 $45,000 10mo 8mo 1.62x PASS
3 360 Jul 17 74d 13.9% $2.49 $8.26 $8,260 $12,282 $46,118 $58,157 90 $50,000 10mo 8mo 1.66x PASS
4 360 Aug 21 109d 13.9% $4.05 $6.70 $6,700 $13,562 $41,523 $56,877 90 $50,000 11mo 8mo 1.66x PASS
5 355 Jul 17 74d 15.1% $2.13 $8.62 $8,620 $10,506 $39,213 $59,933 95 $55,000 11mo 9mo 1.70x PASS
6 355 Aug 21 109d 15.1% $3.50 $7.25 $7,250 $11,720 $36,333 $58,718 95 $55,000 11mo 9mo 1.70x PASS
7 350 Jul 17 74d 16.3% $1.89 $8.86 $8,860 $9,322 $33,294 $61,116 100 $60,000 12mo 9mo 1.74x PASS
8 350 Aug 21 109d 16.3% $3.10 $7.65 $7,650 $10,381 $31,979 $60,058 100 $60,000 12mo 9mo 1.74x PASS
9 345 Jul 17 74d 17.5% $1.58 $9.17 $9,170 $7,793 $28,115 $62,645 105 $65,000 12mo 10mo 1.77x PASS
10 345 Aug 21 109d 17.5% $2.66 $8.09 $8,090 $8,907 $27,626 $61,531 105 $65,000 13mo 10mo 1.77x PASS
11 340 Jul 17 74d 18.7% $1.37 $9.38 $9,380 $6,757 $23,676 $63,681 110 $70,000 13mo 11mo 1.81x PASS
12 340 Aug 21 109d 18.7% $2.31 $8.44 $8,440 $7,735 $24,110 $62,703 110 $70,000 13mo 11mo 1.81x PASS
13 335 Jul 17 74d 19.9% $1.21 $9.54 $9,540 $5,968 $17,017 $64,470 115 $75,000 14mo 11mo 1.85x PASS
14 335 Aug 21 109d 19.9% $2.03 $8.72 $8,720 $6,798 $18,083 $63,641 115 $75,000 14mo 11mo 1.85x PASS
15 330 Jul 17 74d 21.1% $1.04 $9.71 $9,710 $5,130 $14,748 $65,309 120 $80,000 15mo 12mo 1.88x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Jun 05 (32d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $429, B $7.60 $85,500/yr $14,748/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $429 0.4σ, B $7.60 $85,500/yr $14,748/yr SELF-FUNDING
AT 10% DRAWDOWN (stock $418.22 → $376.40, hedge $54,257/yr)
CC at SS vs stressed $85,500/yr $54,257/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID vs stressed $85,500/yr $54,257/yr SELF-FUNDING
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at SS ($429, bid $7.60). Conservative far-OTM strike covers the hedge in BOTH normal and 10% drawdown — minimal assignment risk.

HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.

Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.

EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.

Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).