FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-04-27 22:04:56
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$122,837/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$21,397/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$101,440/yr
ROLL CREDITS
$9,300
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$25,000
PORTFOLIO ACTION SUMMARY · 2 positions
1 · REPAIR (URGENT)1 · ROLL NOW
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Fortress Position Overview

TICKERSTOCKLCSPHPSC SSGAPRMHP OTM%STATUSCTRSICNOTIONALURGENCY
NOW → $91.32 80110 1050 $108.93 51.18x -15.0% ITM 10 $27,850$91,320 REPAIR (URGENT)
IREN → $49.95 2547 3557 $44.00 121.75x 29.9% SAFE 40 $64,000$199,800 ROLL NOW

NOW: HP 105P Roll-Down

Stock: $91.32 HP: ITM Current hedge: $122,837/yr SS: $108.93 (unchanged) Shares: 1,000 CC income: $7,856/yr IV: HIGH OTM floor: 8% Stress: 20% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 3 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 105 → 80 (Aug 21, 116d) | Save $101,440/yr | Payback 3mo (0.25yr) hedge only, 3mo (0.23yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 12.4% OTM | RM 1.18x → 2.08x
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 80 Aug 21 116d 12.4% $6.80 $9.30 $9,300 $21,397 $25,865 $101,440 30 $25,000 3mo 3mo 2.08x PASS
2 75 Aug 21 116d 17.9% $5.10 $11.00 $11,000 $16,047 $31,843 $106,789 35 $30,000 3mo 3mo 2.26x PASS
3 70 Aug 21 116d 23.3% $3.70 $12.40 $12,400 $11,642 $28,004 $111,194 40 $35,000 4mo 4mo 2.44x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain May 29 (32d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $109, B $0.30 $3,375/yr $21,397/yr DEFICIT $1,502/mo
CC at MID $101 0.6σ, B $2.05 $23,062/yr $21,397/yr SELF-FUNDING
At Drawdown (stressed hedge)
CC at SS vs stressed $3,375/yr $25,865/yr DEFICIT $1,874/mo
CC at MID vs stressed $23,062/yr $25,865/yr DEFICIT $234/mo
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital

IREN: HP Maintenance Roll-Out

Stock: $49.95 Current HP: 35P (18d, 29.9% OTM) Current hedge: $71,378/yr Current ML: $112,000 CC income: $608,632/yr Cost cap: 25% of CC = $152,158/yr IV: MEDIUM 20 qualifying
CHEAPEST PICK (lowest annual cost, ML preserved): HP 35 → 35P (Aug 21 '26, 116d, 29.9% OTM) | Cost: $57,897/yr (10% of CC) | New ML: $112,000 = ML | Roll DEBIT $15,320
PROTECTIVE PICK (lowest ML within cost cap): HP 35 → 44P (Aug 21 '26, 116d, 11.9% OTM) | Cost: $106,353/yr (17% of CC) | New ML: $76,000 ↓ $36,000 | Roll DEBIT $30,720
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM% BIDASKHEDGE/YR%CC NEW MLΔMLROLL
▶ 1 35 CHEAP Aug 21 116d 29.9% $3.60 $4.60 $57,897 10% $112,000 = D $15,320
2 36 Aug 21 116d 27.9% $4.00 $4.60 $57,897 10% $108,000 -$4,000 D $15,320
3 35 Jul 17 81d 29.9% $2.68 $3.35 $60,383 10% $112,000 = D $10,320
4 37 Aug 21 116d 25.9% $3.90 $5.35 $67,336 11% $104,000 -$8,000 D $18,320
5 36 Jul 17 81d 27.9% $2.30 $3.80 $68,494 11% $108,000 -$4,000 D $12,120
6 37 Jul 17 81d 25.9% $3.30 $4.00 $72,099 12% $104,000 -$8,000 D $12,920
7 38 Aug 21 116d 23.9% $4.60 $5.75 $72,371 12% $100,000 -$12,000 D $19,920
8 38 Jul 17 81d 23.9% $3.20 $4.25 $76,605 13% $100,000 -$12,000 D $13,920
9 39 Aug 21 116d 21.9% $5.20 $6.15 $77,405 13% $96,000 -$16,000 D $21,520
10 40 Aug 21 116d 19.9% $5.60 $6.50 $81,810 13% $92,000 -$20,000 D $22,920
11 39 Jul 17 81d 21.9% $4.00 $4.75 $85,617 14% $96,000 -$16,000 D $15,920
12 40 Jul 17 81d 19.9% $4.40 $4.85 $87,420 14% $92,000 -$20,000 D $16,320
▶ 13 44 PROT Aug 21 116d 11.9% $7.45 $8.45 $106,353 17% $76,000 -$36,000 D $30,720
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain May 29 (32d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $49, B $6.45 $290,250/yr $57,897/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $53 0.7σ, B $4.60 $207,000/yr $57,897/yr SELF-FUNDING
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress

HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.

Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.

EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.

Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).