FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-03-24 23:55:36
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$66,536/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$18,781/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$47,756/yr
ROLL CREDITS
-$100
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$17,500

Fortress Position Overview

TICKERSTOCKLCSPHPSC SSGAPRMHP OTM%STATUSCTRSICNOTIONALURGENCY
MSFT $373.67 280390 370405 $388.00 201.20x 1.0% TIGHT 5 $49,696$186,835 CRITICAL

MSFT: HP 370P Roll-Down

Stock: $373.67 HP: 1.0% OTM Current hedge: $66,536/yr SS: $388.00 (unchanged) Shares: 500 CC income: $29,921/yr IV: MEDIUM OTM floor: 10% Stress: 15% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 26 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 370 → 335 (Jun 18, 86d) | Save $47,756/yr | Payback 4mo (0.37yr) hedge only, 3mo (0.23yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 10.3% OTM | RM 1.20x → 1.55x
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 335 Jun 18 86d 10.3% $8.85 $-0.20 $-100 $18,781 $25,720 $47,756 55 $17,500 4mo 3mo 1.55x PASS
2 330 Jul 17 115d 11.7% $9.70 $-1.05 $-525 $15,393 $22,328 $51,143 60 $20,000 5mo 3mo 1.60x PASS
3 330 Jun 18 86d 11.7% $7.80 $0.85 $425 $16,552 $29,858 $49,984 60 $20,000 5mo 3mo 1.60x PASS
4 325 Jun 18 86d 13.0% $6.85 $1.80 $900 $14,536 $39,407 $52,000 65 $22,500 5mo 3mo 1.65x PASS
5 320 Jul 17 115d 14.4% $7.70 $0.95 $475 $12,220 $33,517 $54,317 70 $25,000 6mo 4mo 1.70x PASS
6 320 Jun 18 86d 14.4% $6.00 $2.65 $1,325 $12,733 $44,819 $53,804 70 $25,000 6mo 4mo 1.70x PASS
7 315 Jun 18 86d 15.7% $5.25 $3.40 $1,700 $11,141 $42,866 $55,395 75 $27,500 6mo 4mo 1.75x PASS
8 310 Jul 17 115d 17.0% $6.05 $2.60 $1,300 $9,601 $28,724 $56,935 80 $30,000 6mo 4mo 1.80x PASS
9 310 Jun 18 86d 17.0% $4.60 $4.05 $2,025 $9,762 $38,410 $56,775 80 $30,000 6mo 4mo 1.80x PASS
10 305 Jun 18 86d 18.4% $4.00 $4.65 $2,325 $8,488 $34,378 $58,048 85 $32,500 7mo 4mo 1.86x PASS
11 300 Jun 18 86d 19.7% $3.50 $5.15 $2,575 $7,427 $30,664 $59,109 90 $35,000 7mo 5mo 1.91x PASS
12 300 Jul 17 115d 19.7% $4.75 $3.90 $1,950 $7,538 $22,932 $58,998 90 $35,000 7mo 5mo 1.91x PASS
13 295 Jun 18 86d 21.1% $3.05 $5.60 $2,800 $6,472 $24,192 $60,064 95 $37,500 7mo 5mo 1.96x PASS
14 295 Jul 17 115d 21.1% $4.20 $4.45 $2,225 $6,665 $18,091 $59,871 95 $37,500 8mo 5mo 1.96x PASS
15 290 Jun 18 86d 22.4% $2.61 $6.04 $3,020 $5,539 $21,221 $60,998 100 $40,000 8mo 5mo 2.01x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Apr 24 (31d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $390, B $5.60 $32,516/yr $18,781/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $395 0.7σ, B $4.05 $23,516/yr $18,781/yr SELF-FUNDING
At Drawdown (stressed hedge)
CC at SS vs stressed $32,516/yr $25,720/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID vs stressed $23,516/yr $25,720/yr DEFICIT $184/mo
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital

HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.

Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.

EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.

Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).