FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-03-17 02:01:29
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$185,385/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$52,785/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$132,600/yr
ROLL CREDITS
$1,040
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$77,500

Fortress Position Overview

TICKERSTOCKLCSPHPSC SSGAPRMHP OTM%STATUSCTRSICNOTIONALURGENCY
MSFT $398.47 280390 3700 $388.00 201.20x 7.1% OK 5 $49,696$199,235 URGENT
QQQ $600.80 450610 595615 $607.00 151.11x 1.0% TIGHT 10 $137,315$600,800 CRITICAL
SPY $668.91 450675 655691 $691.00 201.09x 2.1% TIGHT 10 $214,651$668,910 CRITICAL
XLE $57.86 4052 5060 $52.00 21.22x 13.6% SAFE 50 $56,919$289,300 OK

MSFT: HP 370P Roll-Down

Stock: $398.47 HP: 7.1% OTM Current hedge: $23,254/yr SS: $388.00 (unchanged) Shares: 500 CC income: $175,759/yr IV: MEDIUM OTM floor: 10% Stress: 15% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 16 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 370 → 355 (Jun 18, 93d) | Save $4,710/yr | Payback 19mo (1.59yr) hedge only, 0mo (0.04yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 10.9% OTM | RM 1.20x → 1.35x
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 355 Jun 18 93d 10.9% $9.45 $-5.60 $-2,800 $18,544 $27,022 $4,710 35 $7,500 19mo 0mo 1.35x PASS
2 350 Jun 18 93d 12.2% $8.45 $-4.60 $-2,300 $16,582 $35,362 $6,672 40 $10,000 18mo 1mo 1.40x PASS
3 345 Jun 18 93d 13.4% $7.50 $-3.65 $-1,825 $14,718 $39,973 $8,536 45 $12,500 18mo 1mo 1.45x PASS
4 340 Jun 18 93d 14.7% $6.65 $-2.80 $-1,400 $13,050 $44,977 $10,204 50 $15,000 18mo 1mo 1.50x PASS
5 335 Jun 18 93d 15.9% $5.90 $-2.05 $-1,025 $11,578 $43,565 $11,676 55 $17,500 18mo 1mo 1.55x PASS
6 330 Jun 18 93d 17.2% $5.25 $-1.40 $-700 $10,302 $39,444 $12,952 60 $20,000 19mo 1mo 1.60x PASS
7 325 Jun 18 93d 18.4% $4.65 $-0.80 $-400 $9,125 $31,987 $14,129 65 $22,500 19mo 1mo 1.65x PASS
8 320 Jun 18 93d 19.7% $4.10 $-0.25 $-125 $8,046 $28,847 $15,208 70 $25,000 20mo 2mo 1.70x PASS
9 315 Jun 18 93d 20.9% $3.60 $0.25 $125 $7,065 $25,903 $16,190 75 $27,500 20mo 2mo 1.75x PASS
10 310 Jun 18 93d 22.2% $3.15 $0.70 $350 $6,181 $23,254 $17,073 80 $30,000 21mo 2mo 1.80x PASS
11 305 Jun 18 93d 23.5% $2.77 $1.08 $540 $5,436 $20,801 $17,818 85 $32,500 22mo 2mo 1.86x PASS
12 300 Jun 18 93d 24.7% $2.42 $1.43 $715 $4,749 $18,544 $18,505 90 $35,000 23mo 2mo 1.91x PASS
13 295 Jun 18 93d 26.0% $2.11 $1.74 $870 $4,141 $14,718 $19,113 95 $37,500 24mo 2mo 1.96x PASS
14 290 Jun 18 93d 27.2% $1.84 $2.01 $1,005 $3,611 $13,050 $19,643 100 $40,000 24mo 2mo 2.01x PASS
15 285 Jun 18 93d 28.5% $1.60 $2.25 $1,125 $3,140 $11,578 $20,114 105 $42,500 25mo 3mo 2.06x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Apr 17 (31d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $395, B $15.15 $87,968/yr $18,544/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $420 0.6σ, B $4.35 $25,258/yr $18,544/yr SELF-FUNDING
At Drawdown (stressed hedge)
CC at SS vs stressed $87,968/yr $27,022/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID vs stressed $25,258/yr $27,022/yr DEFICIT $147/mo
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital

QQQ: HP 595P Roll-Down

Stock: $600.80 HP: 1.0% OTM Current hedge: $162,131/yr SS: $607.00 (unchanged) Shares: 1,000 CC income: $146,931/yr IV: LOW OTM floor: 12% Stress: 10% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 73 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 595 → 525 (Jun 30, 105d) | Save $127,890/yr | Payback 7mo (0.55yr) hedge only, 3mo (0.25yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 12.6% OTM | RM 1.11x → 1.62x
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 525 Jun 30 105d 12.6% $9.85 $3.84 $3,840 $34,240 $72,131 $127,890 85 $70,000 7mo 3mo 1.62x PASS
2 525 May 29 73d 12.6% $6.89 $6.80 $6,800 $34,450 $103,750 $127,681 85 $70,000 7mo 3mo 1.62x PASS
3 525 Jun 18 93d 12.7% $8.84 $4.85 $4,850 $34,695 $81,438 $127,436 85 $70,220 7mo 3mo 1.62x PASS
4 520 May 29 73d 13.4% $6.36 $7.33 $7,330 $31,800 $96,600 $130,331 90 $75,000 7mo 3mo 1.66x PASS
5 520 Jun 30 105d 13.4% $9.20 $4.49 $4,490 $31,981 $67,160 $130,150 90 $75,000 7mo 3mo 1.66x PASS
6 520 Jun 18 93d 13.4% $8.26 $5.43 $5,430 $32,418 $75,826 $129,712 90 $75,000 7mo 3mo 1.66x PASS
7 520 Jun 18 93d 13.5% $8.24 $5.45 $5,450 $32,340 $75,826 $129,791 90 $75,220 7mo 3mo 1.66x PASS
8 515 May 29 73d 14.3% $5.89 $7.80 $7,800 $29,450 $84,050 $132,681 95 $80,000 7mo 3mo 1.69x PASS
9 515 Jun 30 105d 14.3% $8.60 $5.09 $5,090 $29,895 $58,435 $132,235 95 $80,000 7mo 3mo 1.69x PASS
10 515 Jun 18 93d 14.3% $7.68 $6.01 $6,010 $30,142 $65,975 $131,989 95 $80,220 7mo 3mo 1.69x PASS
11 510 May 29 73d 15.1% $5.43 $8.26 $8,260 $27,150 $66,200 $134,981 100 $85,000 8mo 4mo 1.73x PASS
12 510 Jun 30 105d 15.1% $8.04 $5.65 $5,650 $27,949 $54,229 $134,182 100 $85,000 8mo 4mo 1.73x PASS
13 510 Jun 18 93d 15.1% $7.18 $6.51 $6,510 $28,180 $51,963 $133,951 100 $85,000 8mo 4mo 1.73x PASS
14 510 Jun 18 93d 15.1% $7.15 $6.54 $6,540 $28,062 $51,963 $134,069 100 $85,220 8mo 4mo 1.73x PASS
15 505 May 29 73d 15.9% $5.04 $8.65 $8,650 $25,200 $61,150 $136,931 105 $90,000 8mo 4mo 1.76x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Apr 17 (31d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $607, B $13.06 $151,665/yr $34,240/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $608 0.2σ, B $12.49 $145,045/yr $34,240/yr SELF-FUNDING
At Drawdown (stressed hedge)
CC at SS vs stressed $151,665/yr $72,131/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID vs stressed $145,045/yr $72,131/yr SELF-FUNDING
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress

HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.

Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.

EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.

Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).