FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-05-04 23:13:34
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$114,367/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$23,775/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$90,591/yr
ROLL CREDITS
$6,100
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$20,000

Fortress Position Overview

TICKERSTOCKLCSPHPSC SSGAPRMHP OTM%STATUSCTRSICNOTIONALURGENCY
NOW → $94.43 80110 1050 $108.93 51.18x -11.2% ITM 10 $27,850$94,430 REPAIR PLAN (45d)

NOW: HP 105P Roll-Down · exp Jun 18 '26, 45d

Stock: $94.43 HP: ITM Current hedge: $114,367/yr SS: $108.93 (unchanged) Shares: 1,000 CC income: $10,854/yr IV: HIGH OTM floor: 8% Stress: 20% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 4 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 105 → 85 (Aug 21, 109d) | Save $90,591/yr | Payback 3mo (0.22yr) hedge only, 2mo (0.20yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 10.0% OTM | RM 1.18x → 1.90x
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 85 Aug 21 109d 10.0% $7.10 $6.10 $6,100 $23,775 $24,545 $90,591 25 $20,000 3mo 2mo 1.90x PASS
2 80 Aug 21 109d 15.3% $5.30 $7.90 $7,900 $17,748 $30,238 $96,619 30 $25,000 3mo 3mo 2.08x PASS
3 75 Aug 21 109d 20.6% $3.90 $9.30 $9,300 $13,060 $37,605 $101,307 35 $30,000 4mo 3mo 2.26x PASS
4 70 Aug 21 109d 25.9% $2.75 $10.45 $10,450 $9,209 $23,775 $105,158 40 $35,000 4mo 4mo 2.44x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Jun 05 (32d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $109, B $0.05 $562/yr $23,775/yr DEFICIT $1,934/mo
CC at MID $104 0.6σ, B $2.30 $25,875/yr $23,775/yr SELF-FUNDING
AT 20% DRAWDOWN (stock $94.43 → $75.54, hedge $24,545/yr)
CC at SS vs stressed $562/yr $24,545/yr DEFICIT $1,999/mo
CC at MID vs stressed $25,875/yr $24,545/yr SELF-FUNDING
FULLY SUSTAINABLE CC at MID covers hedge in normal + stress
CC WRITING STRATEGY
WRITE CCs at MID ($104, bid $2.30). Self-funds in BOTH normal and 20% drawdown. At SS the position bleeds, so don't drift too far OTM.

HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.

Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.

EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.

Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).