FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-03-18 01:45:07
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$98,854/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$72,405/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$26,449/yr
ROLL CREDITS
-$10,250
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$15,000

Fortress Position Overview

TICKERSTOCKLCSPHPSC SSGAPRMHP OTM%STATUSCTRSICNOTIONALURGENCY
NVDA $182.96 130190 1700 $180.99 201.48x 7.1% OK 25 $104,927$457,400 URGENT

NVDA: HP 170P Roll-Down

Stock: $182.96 HP: 7.1% OTM Current hedge: $98,854/yr SS: $180.99 (unchanged) Shares: 2,500 CC income: $262,595/yr IV: MEDIUM OTM floor: 10% Stress: 15% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 22 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 170 → 164 (Jun 18, 92d) | Save $26,449/yr | Payback 7mo (0.57yr) hedge only, 1mo (0.05yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 10.4% OTM | RM 1.48x → 1.62x
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 164 Jun 18 92d 10.4% $7.30 $-4.10 $-10,250 $72,405 $99,780 $26,449 26 $15,000 7mo 1mo 1.62x PASS
2 162 Jun 18 92d 11.5% $6.75 $-3.55 $-8,875 $66,950 $104,243 $31,904 28 $20,000 8mo 1mo 1.67x PASS
3 160 Jun 18 92d 12.5% $6.25 $-3.05 $-7,625 $61,990 $117,633 $36,864 30 $25,000 8mo 1mo 1.71x PASS
4 158 Jun 18 92d 13.6% $5.80 $-2.60 $-6,500 $57,527 $127,552 $41,327 32 $30,000 9mo 1mo 1.76x PASS
5 156 Jun 18 92d 14.7% $5.35 $-2.15 $-5,375 $53,064 $136,974 $45,790 34 $35,000 9mo 1mo 1.81x PASS
6 155 Jun 18 92d 15.3% $5.15 $-1.95 $-4,875 $51,080 $138,363 $47,774 35 $37,500 9mo 1mo 1.83x PASS
7 154 Jun 18 92d 15.8% $4.95 $-1.75 $-4,375 $49,096 $133,899 $49,758 36 $40,000 10mo 2mo 1.86x PASS
8 152 Jun 18 92d 16.9% $4.55 $-1.35 $-3,375 $45,129 $124,973 $53,725 38 $45,000 10mo 2mo 1.91x PASS
9 150 Jun 18 92d 18.0% $4.20 $-1.00 $-2,500 $41,658 $112,575 $57,197 40 $50,000 10mo 2mo 1.95x PASS
10 148 Jun 18 92d 19.1% $3.85 $-0.65 $-1,625 $38,186 $105,136 $60,668 42 $55,000 11mo 2mo 2.00x PASS
11 146 Jun 18 92d 20.2% $3.55 $-0.35 $-875 $35,211 $97,697 $63,644 44 $60,000 11mo 2mo 2.05x PASS
12 145 Jun 18 92d 20.7% $3.40 $-0.20 $-500 $33,723 $94,226 $65,131 45 $62,500 12mo 2mo 2.07x PASS
13 144 Jun 18 92d 21.3% $3.25 $-0.05 $-125 $32,235 $87,779 $66,619 46 $65,000 12mo 2mo 2.10x PASS
14 142 Jun 18 92d 22.4% $2.99 $0.21 $525 $29,656 $81,332 $69,198 48 $70,000 12mo 3mo 2.14x PASS
15 140 Jun 18 92d 23.5% $2.74 $0.46 $1,150 $27,177 $74,885 $71,678 50 $75,000 13mo 3mo 2.19x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Apr 17 (30d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $185, B $6.85 $205,500/yr $72,405/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $195 0.6σ, B $2.89 $86,700/yr $72,405/yr SELF-FUNDING
At Drawdown (stressed hedge)
CC at SS vs stressed $205,500/yr $99,780/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID vs stressed $86,700/yr $99,780/yr DEFICIT $1,090/mo
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital

HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.

Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.

EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.

Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).