Fortress Repair

Generated Wed Oct 21 '26 14:07 SGT · ET date 2026-10-20
replay of saved inputs · positions from the TWS snapshot (22s old) · roll-by = expiry minus 30 days (pending your answer on the roll lead)
25 QUIET4 PAID OUT6 DUE4 EXPIRING2 OVER-HEDGEDtotal 41

Main:1299 · 14 fortress(es) · 5 actionable · IC $1,234,550

FortressContractsLC / SP / HP (CSV)SpotHedge heldStateRoll byHedge carry/yrMax LossIf hedge lapses
BMNR (Main)7523 / 18 / 25$23.1075x 25P Jan 21OVER-HEDGED-$23,952 owned$211,950-
GLD10320 / 450 / 330$377.8910x 330P Nov 20DUEOct 21$11,852$256,000$586,000 (+330,000)
MU (Main)5880 / 1010 / 340$910.565x 340P Nov 20DUEOct 21$3,599$409,300$579,300 (+170,000)
IREN (Main)2025 / 47 / 35$27.0420x 35P Jan 15PAID OUTDec 16$21,609$56,000$126,000 (+70,000)
COIN (Main)25500 / 330 / 300$172.2125x 300P Dec 17PAID OUT-$29,316 owned$232,500-
COIN (Main)8165 / 240 / 90$172.218x 90P Dec 18QUIETNov 18$2,787$133,440$205,440 (+72,000)
AMD2410 / 550 / 470$540.992x 470P Jan 15QUIETDec 16$19,886$63,840$157,840 (+94,000)
DELL3310 / 400 / 320$464.143x 320P Jan 15QUIETDec 16$12,821$99,750$195,750 (+96,000)
BMNR (Main)5025 / 0 / 0$23.10-QUIET--$204,150-
GLXY12537.5 / 37.5 / 17.5$16.07125x 17.5P Jan 21QUIET-$33,708 owned$277,625-
HIMS1510 / 20 / 5$29.7815x 5P Jan 21QUIET-$240 owned$29,895-
IGV1270 / 0 / 0$106.99-QUIET--$31,800-
MARA (Main)40013 / 0 / 0$7.73-QUIET--$150,000-
NVDA10215 / 225 / 200$216.9210x 200P Jun 16QUIET-$12,480 owned$74,800-

BMNR (Main) OVER-HEDGED

75 contracts, CSV row 28 | hedge 75x 25P Jan 21 (458d, owned), mark $7.90 | Max Loss $211,950
Harvest it down below the short put?
  • Convexity hold: no covered-call income assumed. Exit plan $70.
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
KEEP25P Jan 21 '28$0$0$0$0$0$0-$22,569$0+0--
HARVEST15P Jan 15 '27+$55,051+$14,250+$41,213-$411-$19,949-$132,449$17,669$16,362-$55,292+1,95534c per $1Roll in TWS tab
RESTRIKE15P Jan 21 '28+$39,151+$14,250+$25,200-$299-$35,849-$35,849-$14,509-$53,214+1,317--
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
Why: Convexity hold: your thesis decides, nothing highlighted.

GLD DUE · roll by Oct 21

10 contracts, CSV row 5 | hedge 10x 330P Nov 20 (31d), mark $0.38 | Max Loss $256,000
Roll now: which replacement?
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $330,000; Max Loss $586,000 (+$330,000).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE330P Dec 31 '26-$1,060$0-$930-$130-$1,060-$1,060$9,947$9,212$0-40-Roll in TWS tab
CHEAPER325P Dec 31 '26-$760$0-$660-$100-$5,760-$760$8,083$7,485-$3,274-2640c per $1Roll in TWS tab
SAFER331P Jan 15 '27-$1,390$0-$1,360-$30-$390-$1,390$10,145$9,394+$817-5529c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)330P Jan 21 '28 est ($13.45 to $13.63 a share)-$13,502$0-$13,088-$413-$13,502+$316,498-$10,417-$1,206-173-Display only
OWN (est)375P Jan 21 '28 est-$28,600$0-$27,415-$1,185+$16,400+$346,400-$12,789+$39,313-330-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

MU (Main) DUE · roll by Oct 21

5 contracts, CSV row 17 | hedge 5x 340P Nov 20 (31d), mark $0.16 | Max Loss $409,300
Roll now: which replacement?
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $170,000; Max Loss $579,300 (+$170,000).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE340P Jan 15 '27-$495$0-$438-$57-$495-$495$3,051$2,826$0-2-Roll in TWS tab
SAFER390P Jan 15 '27-$725$0-$665-$60+$24,275-$725$4,497$4,165+$23,656-46c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)340P Jan 21 '28 est-$4,640$0-$4,322-$317-$4,640+$165,360-$4,469-$2,164-13-Display only
OWN (est)910P Jan 21 '28 est-$90,540$0-$89,872-$667+$194,460+$364,460-$43,024+$243,582-182-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

IREN (Main) PAID OUT · roll by Dec 16

20 contracts, CSV row 3 | hedge 20x 35P Jan 15 (87d), mark $10.38 | Max Loss $56,000
Harvest it, and how far down?
  • IREN reports Nov 05, before the roll-by date; the current put covers it.
  • in the money by $7.96/share
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $70,000; Max Loss $126,000 (+$70,000).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶KEEP35P Jan 15 '27$0$0$0$0$0$0$21,224$19,654$0+0--
HARVEST27P Jan 15 '27+$10,080+$15,920-$5,520-$320-$5,920+$10,080$26,269$24,326-$5,371+42985c per $1Roll in TWS tab
HARVEST25P Jan 15 '27+$12,380+$15,920-$3,420-$120-$7,620+$12,380$25,099$23,243-$7,888+55151c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)25P Jan 21 '28 est+$2,880+$15,920-$12,470-$570-$17,120+$52,880-$8,386+$6,069+692-Display only
OWN (est)35P Jan 21 '28 est-$10,820$0-$10,100-$720-$10,820+$59,180-$9,276+$8,959+432-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so keep this hedge: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

COIN (Main) PAID OUT

25 contracts, CSV row 30 | hedge 25x 300P Dec 17 (423d, owned), mark $138.39 | Max Loss $232,500
Harvest it, and how far down?
  • in the money by $127.79/share
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶KEEP300P Dec 17 '27$0$0$0$0$0$0-$22,434$0+0--
HARVEST170P Jan 15 '27+$288,975+$319,475-$29,100-$1,400-$36,025-$461,025$134,696$111,816-$97,682+573299c per $1Roll in TWS tab
HARVEST150P Jan 15 '27+$312,600+$319,475-$6,412-$462-$62,400-$437,400$105,303$87,416-$121,406+940125c per $1Roll in TWS tab
RESTRIKE290P Dec 17 '27+$11,350+$25,000-$9,750-$3,900-$13,650-$13,650-$25,875-$11,216-81--
RESTRIKE220P Dec 17 '27+$151,350+$200,000-$46,062-$2,587-$48,650-$48,650-$41,866-$24,582+369--
RESTRIKE175P Dec 17 '27+$226,100+$312,500-$82,875-$3,525-$86,400-$86,400-$43,866-$28,457+715--
RESTRIKE145P Dec 17 '27+$266,600+$319,475-$50,350-$2,525-$120,900-$120,900-$40,160-$90,776+959--
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
Why: The account is below the bar, so keep this hedge: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

Joint:1782 · 8 fortress(es) · 3 actionable · IC $354,904

FortressContractsLC / SP / HP (CSV)SpotHedge heldStateRoll byHedge carry/yrMax LossIf hedge lapses
BMNR (Joint)8223 / 18 / 25$23.1082x 25P Jan 21OVER-HEDGED-$26,184 owned$93,644-
AMZN5200 / 250 / 215$263.255x 215P Nov 20EXPIRINGOct 30$13,829$51,460$158,960 (+107,500)
IREN (Joint)2025 / 47 / 35$27.0420x 35P Jan 15PAID OUTDec 16$21,609$56,000$126,000 (+70,000)
HOOD1065 / 95 / 80$98.9410x 80P Jan 15QUIETDec 16$17,776$64,950$144,950 (+80,000)
COPX2065 / 90 / 68$79.7220x 68P Jan 21QUIET-$11,304 owned$100,800-
GOOG (Joint)5310 / 0 / 0$337.43-QUIET--$41,250-
IBIT5075 / 0 / 0$46.82-QUIET---$22,100-
MSTR (Joint)10180 / 0 / 0$145.03-QUIET--$53,000-

BMNR (Joint) OVER-HEDGED

82 contracts, CSV row 29 | hedge 82x 25P Jan 21 (458d, owned), mark $7.90 | Max Loss $93,644
Harvest it down below the short put?
  • Convexity hold: no covered-call income assumed. Exit plan $70.
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
KEEP25P Jan 21 '28$0$0$0$0$0$0-$24,675$0+0--
HARVEST15P Jan 15 '27+$60,189+$15,580+$45,059-$450-$21,811-$144,811$19,318$17,889-$60,453+2,13734c per $1Roll in TWS tab
RESTRIKE15P Jan 21 '28+$42,805+$15,580+$27,552-$327-$39,195-$39,195-$15,863-$58,180+1,440--
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
Why: Convexity hold: your thesis decides, nothing highlighted.

AMZN EXPIRING · roll by Oct 30

5 contracts, CSV row 34 | hedge 5x 215P Nov 20 (31d), mark $0.89 | Max Loss $51,460
Which replacement?
  • AMZN reports Oct 29: roll the day after the print (Oct 30).
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $107,500; Max Loss $158,960 (+$107,500).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE215P Jan 15 '27-$890$0-$857-$32-$890-$890$7,436$6,886$0-25-Roll in TWS tab
CHEAPER210P Jan 15 '27-$635$0-$618-$17-$3,135-$635$6,229$5,768-$1,382-1654c per $1Roll in TWS tab
SAFER220P Jan 15 '27-$1,215$0-$1,172-$42+$1,285-$1,215$8,889$8,231+$1,135-3667c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)240P Jan 21 '28 est-$11,840$0-$11,710-$130+$660+$108,160-$7,684+$11,508-122-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

IREN (Joint) PAID OUT · roll by Dec 16

20 contracts, CSV row 4 | hedge 20x 35P Jan 15 (87d), mark $10.38 | Max Loss $56,000
Harvest it, and how far down?
  • IREN reports Nov 05, before the roll-by date; the current put covers it.
  • in the money by $7.96/share
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $70,000; Max Loss $126,000 (+$70,000).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶KEEP35P Jan 15 '27$0$0$0$0$0$0$21,224$19,654$0+0--
HARVEST27P Jan 15 '27+$10,080+$15,920-$5,520-$320-$5,920+$10,080$26,269$24,326-$5,371+42985c per $1Roll in TWS tab
HARVEST25P Jan 15 '27+$12,380+$15,920-$3,420-$120-$7,620+$12,380$25,099$23,243-$7,888+55151c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)25P Jan 21 '28 est+$2,880+$15,920-$12,470-$570-$17,120+$52,880-$8,386+$6,069+692-Display only
OWN (est)35P Jan 21 '28 est-$10,820$0-$10,100-$720-$10,820+$59,180-$9,476+$8,759+432-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so keep this hedge: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

Neville:0865 · 10 fortress(es) · 5 actionable · IC $441,025

FortressContractsLC / SP / HP (CSV)SpotHedge heldStateRoll byHedge carry/yrMax LossIf hedge lapses
CRWV5105 / 120 / 40$62.825x 40P Nov 20DUEOct 21$8,862$50,225$70,225 (+20,000)
IREN (Neville)2045 / 65 / 21$27.0420x 21P Nov 20DUEOct 21$35,573$94,000$136,000 (+42,000)
MU (Neville)2970 / 1110 / 390$910.562x 390P Nov 20DUEOct 21$2,168$194,000$272,000 (+78,000)
SNDK11200 / 1380 / 810$1,382.801x 810P Nov 20EXPIRINGOct 30$6,933$99,000$180,000 (+81,000)
GOOG (Neville)5340 / 405 / 360$337.435x 360P Jun 17PAID OUT-$11,772 owned$48,000-
INTC585 / 100 / 35$93.095x 35P Dec 18QUIETNov 18$289$47,000$64,500 (+17,500)
CRCL545 / 65 / 40$86.235x 40P Jan 15QUIETDec 16$869$33,500$53,500 (+20,000)
GOOG (Neville)15300 / 345 / 310$337.4315x 310P Jan 21QUIET-$28,584 owned$162,000-
SPCX5150 / 195 / 135$147.655x 135P Mar 19QUIET-$14,472 owned$43,500-
SPY12640 / 0 / 0$769.23-QUIET--$148,800-

CRWV DUE · roll by Oct 21

5 contracts, CSV row 14 | hedge 5x 40P Nov 20 (31d), mark $0.67 | Max Loss $50,225
Roll now: which replacement?
  • CRWV reports Nov 11, too close to expiry to wait: rolling before the print pays its event vol in the new put.
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $20,000; Max Loss $70,225 (+$20,000).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE40P Jan 15 '27-$700$0-$663-$37-$700-$700$5,435$5,033$0-24-Roll in TWS tab
CHEAPER32.5P Jan 15 '27-$185$0-$150-$35-$3,935-$185$2,866$2,654-$1,371+479c per $1Roll in TWS tab
SAFER62.5P Jan 15 '27-$4,755$0-$4,675-$80+$6,495-$4,755$13,135$12,163+$4,035-170107c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)40P Jan 21 '28 est-$4,280$0-$4,175-$105-$4,280+$15,720-$3,421+$1,477-48-Display only
OWN (est)62.5P Jan 21 '28 est-$10,805$0-$10,212-$592+$445+$20,445-$5,343+$9,830-123-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

IREN (Neville) DUE · roll by Oct 21

20 contracts, CSV row 7 | hedge 20x 21P Nov 20 (31d), mark $1.05 | Max Loss $94,000
Roll now: which replacement?
  • IREN reports Nov 05, too close to expiry to wait: rolling before the print pays its event vol in the new put.
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $42,000; Max Loss $136,000 (+$42,000).
  • No usable 21P quote at the replacement tenors; the roll line uses the nearest real strike below it.
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE20P Jan 15 '27-$1,940$0-$1,870-$70-$3,940-$1,940$17,930$16,604$0-34-Roll in TWS tab
CHEAPER17P Jan 15 '27-$380$0-$230-$150-$8,380-$380$12,154$11,255-$2,811+106130c per $1Roll in TWS tab
SAFER27P Jan 15 '27-$8,360$0-$8,040-$320+$3,640-$8,360$26,269$24,326+$3,778-441110c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)25P Jan 21 '28 est-$15,560$0-$14,990-$570-$7,560+$34,440-$8,889+$14,714-178-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

MU (Neville) DUE · roll by Oct 21

2 contracts, CSV row 21 | hedge 2x 390P Nov 20 (31d), mark $0.27 | Max Loss $194,000
Roll now: which replacement?
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $78,000; Max Loss $272,000 (+$78,000).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE390P Jan 15 '27-$268$0-$244-$24-$268-$268$1,799$1,666$0-1-Roll in TWS tab
CHEAPER340P Jan 15 '27-$176$0-$153-$23-$10,176-$176$1,220$1,130-$9,464-16c per $1Roll in TWS tab
SAFER460P Jan 15 '27-$452$0-$424-$28+$13,548-$452$2,934$2,717+$12,941-38c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)390P Jan 21 '28 est-$2,614$0-$2,522-$92-$2,614+$75,386-$2,591-$1,061-8-Display only
OWN (est)910P Jan 21 '28 est-$36,194$0-$35,927-$267+$67,806+$145,806-$17,209+$87,971-72-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

SNDK EXPIRING · roll by Oct 30

1 contracts, CSV row 35 | hedge 1x 810P Nov 20 (31d), mark $2.21 | Max Loss $99,000
Which replacement?
  • SNDK reports Oct 29: roll the day after the print (Oct 30).
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $81,000; Max Loss $180,000 (+$81,000).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE810P Jan 15 '27-$1,031$0-$850-$181-$1,031-$1,031$6,544$6,060$0-3-Roll in TWS tab
CHEAPER780P Jan 15 '27-$701$0-$645-$56-$3,701-$701$5,326$4,932-$1,872-246c per $1Roll in TWS tab
SAFER820P Jan 15 '27-$961$0-$895-$66+$39-$961$6,806$6,303+$757-324c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)810P Jan 21 '28 est-$9,831$0-$9,165-$666-$9,831+$71,169-$8,285-$3,195-11-Display only
OWN (est)1370P Jan 21 '28 est-$35,541$0-$34,885-$656+$20,459+$101,459-$17,089+$44,021-31-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

GOOG (Neville) PAID OUT

5 contracts, CSV row 23 | hedge 5x 360P Jun 17 (240d, owned), mark $44.97 | Max Loss $48,000
Harvest it, and how far down?
  • in the money by $22.57/share
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶KEEP360P Jun 17 '27$0$0$0$0$0$0-$3,924$0+0--
HARVEST335P Jan 15 '27+$12,995+$11,285+$1,828-$117+$495-$167,005$23,885$7,853-$5,374+332414c per $1Roll in TWS tab
RESTRIKE355P Jun 17 '27+$1,120+$2,500-$1,138-$242-$1,380-$1,380-$3,719-$275-1--
RESTRIKE305P Jun 17 '27+$12,445+$11,285+$1,378-$217-$15,055-$15,055-$3,943-$16,664+109--
RESTRIKE255P Jun 17 '27+$18,870+$11,285+$7,653-$67-$33,630-$33,630-$2,119-$39,540+190--
RESTRIKE205P Jun 17 '27+$21,295+$11,285+$10,030-$20-$56,205-$56,205-$714-$63,040+231--
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
Why: The account is below the bar, so keep this hedge: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

RetireInc:7291 · 9 fortress(es) · 3 actionable · IC $180,200

FortressContractsLC / SP / HP (CSV)SpotHedge heldStateRoll byHedge carry/yrMax LossIf hedge lapses
IREN (RetireInc)2050 / 70 / 23$27.0420x 23P Nov 20DUEOct 21$39,496$107,700$153,700 (+46,000)
AAPL5240 / 330 / 285$340.685x 285P Nov 20EXPIRINGNov 03$8,814$69,820$212,320 (+142,500)
APP1460 / 540 / 185$274.731x 185P Nov 20EXPIRINGNov 05$4,098$48,300$66,800 (+18,500)
ENPH1045 / 60 / 20$32.2010x 20P Dec 18QUIETNov 18$1,908$47,300$67,300 (+20,000)
MSTR (RetireInc)4125 / 185 / 55$145.034x 55P Dec 18QUIETNov 18$957$56,800$78,800 (+22,000)
QCOM5190 / 210 / 100$174.865x 100P Dec 18QUIETNov 18$795$72,000$122,000 (+50,000)
RKLB6115 / 135 / 45$51.456x 45P Dec 18QUIETNov 18$10,104$69,930$96,930 (+27,000)
CLSK2517 / 17 / 10$8.6625x 10P Jan 21QUIET-$3,456 owned$26,850-
MARA (RetireInc)50040 / 0 / 0$7.73-QUIET--$52,000-

IREN (RetireInc) DUE · roll by Oct 21

20 contracts, CSV row 13 | hedge 20x 23P Nov 20 (31d), mark $1.64 | Max Loss $107,700
Roll now: which replacement?
  • IREN reports Nov 05, too close to expiry to wait: rolling before the print pays its event vol in the new put.
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $46,000; Max Loss $153,700 (+$46,000).
  • No usable 23P quote at the replacement tenors; the roll line uses the nearest real strike below it.
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE22P Jan 15 '27-$2,300$0-$2,150-$150-$4,300-$2,300$21,637$20,036$0+9-Roll in TWS tab
CHEAPER20P Jan 15 '27-$760$0-$690-$70-$6,760-$760$17,930$16,604-$2,568+118151c per $1Roll in TWS tab
SAFER27P Jan 15 '27-$7,180$0-$6,860-$320+$820-$7,180$26,269$24,326+$3,370-28990c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)23P Jan 21 '28 est-$11,980$0-$11,610-$370-$11,980+$34,020-$8,503+$11,093+29-Display only
OWN (est)25P Jan 21 '28 est-$14,380$0-$13,810-$570-$10,380+$35,620-$8,851+$14,345-26-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

AAPL EXPIRING · roll by Nov 03

5 contracts, CSV row 39 | hedge 5x 285P Nov 20 (31d), mark $0.60 | Max Loss $69,820
Which replacement?
  • AAPL reports Nov 02: roll the day after the print (Nov 03).
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $142,500; Max Loss $212,320 (+$142,500).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE285P Jan 15 '27-$775$0-$752-$22-$775-$775$6,154$11,837$0-24-Roll in TWS tab
CHEAPER280P Jan 15 '27-$600$0-$572-$27-$3,100-$600$5,189$9,981-$654-1742c per $1Roll in TWS tab
SAFER290P Jan 15 '27-$1,030$0-$975-$55+$1,470-$1,030$7,293$14,027+$244-3251c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)320P Jan 19 '29 est-$16,515$0-$16,160-$355+$985+$143,485-$12,107+$16,565-135-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).

APP EXPIRING · roll by Nov 05

1 contracts, CSV row 11 | hedge 1x 185P Nov 20 (31d), mark $1.33 | Max Loss $48,300
Which replacement?
  • APP reports Nov 04: roll the day after the print (Nov 05).
  • If it lapses: the account floor loses $18,500; Max Loss $66,800 (+$18,500).
LineContractCash nowBankedTime valueFrictionFloor changeOwned-only floorCarry/yrCost to handoffFloor at handoffUpside (sh)PriceOrder
▶ROLL SAME STRIKE185P Jan 15 '27-$336$0-$305-$31-$336-$336$2,401$2,223$0-4-Roll in TWS tab
CHEAPER175P Jan 15 '27-$226$0-$200-$26-$1,226-$226$1,842$1,705-$482-263c per $1Roll in TWS tab
SAFER190P Jan 15 '27-$416$0-$365-$51+$84-$416$2,697$2,497+$186-570c per $1Roll in TWS tab
OWN (est)185P Jan 21 '28 est-$2,836$0-$2,695-$141-$2,836+$15,664-$2,217-$214-13-Display only
OWN (est)270P Jan 21 '28 est-$6,866$0-$6,510-$356+$1,634+$20,134-$3,134+$6,939-29-Display only
Carry already includes the time value paid in Cash now; do not add the two. Floors count every stock at $0.
OWN = buy one put lasting to the short put's expiry instead of renting short ones. Cost to handoff compares both paths over the same days (to 120 days before the short put expires, when Rolls takes over); Floor at handoff is how much better (+) or worse (-) the account floor ends up than the picked line. OWN prices are estimates (no market quote for that expiry yet), priced off your long legs' volatility from TWS marks, so they move with it: the range in brackets uses the LC's and the SP's vols. They are never picked until you decide on owned hedges (D1).
Why: The account is below the bar, so roll the same strike: no line raises the floor cheaply enough, and rented floor never meets the ironclad test (owning or de-levering does).
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