FORTRESS REPAIRHP Roll-Down Analysis
Generated: 2026-03-20 01:56:38
Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr)
SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
TOTAL HEDGE (CURRENT)
$11,732/yr
TOTAL HEDGE (REPAIRED)
$10,950/yr
ANNUAL SAVINGS
$782/yr
ROLL CREDITS
-$1,900
ADDITIONAL MAX LOSS
$10,000

Fortress Position Overview

TICKERSTOCKLCSPHPSC SSGAPRMHP OTM%STATUSCTRSICNOTIONALURGENCY
XLE $59.44 4052 500 $52.00 21.22x 15.9% SAFE 50 $56,919$297,200 REVIEW

XLE: HP 50P Roll-Down

Stock: $59.44 HP: 15.9% OTM Current hedge: $11,732/yr SS: $52.00 (unchanged) Shares: 5,000 CC income: $933,187/yr IV: MEDIUM OTM floor: 10% Stress: 15% DD Payback gate: 12mo (1.0yr) 30 PASS
RECOMMENDED: Roll HP 50 → 48 (Jun 18, 90d) | Save $782/yr | Payback N/A hedge only, 0mo (0.01yr) w/income (gate: 12mo (1.0yr)) | HP moves to 19.2% OTM | RM 1.22x → 1.40x
#NEW HPEXPIRYDTEOTM%ASK ROLL CR/SHROLL TOTALHEDGE/YRSTRESS/YRSAVED/YR GAPML+PAYBACKPB+INCNEW RM
1 48 Jun 18 90d 19.2% $0.54 $-0.38 $-1,900 $10,950 $50,897 $782 4 $10,000 N/A 0mo 1.40x PASS
2 48 Jun 18 90d 20.1% $0.53 $-0.37 $-1,850 $10,747 $50,897 $985 5 $12,500 N/A 0mo 1.44x PASS
3 48 Jun 30 102d 20.1% $0.62 $-0.46 $-2,300 $11,093 $44,909 $639 5 $12,500 N/A 0mo 1.44x PASS
4 47 Jun 18 90d 20.9% $0.46 $-0.30 $-1,500 $9,328 $34,269 $2,404 6 $15,000 75mo 0mo 1.48x PASS
5 47 Jul 17 119d 20.9% $0.67 $-0.51 $-2,550 $10,275 $25,918 $1,457 6 $15,000 N/A 0mo 1.48x PASS
6 46 Jun 18 90d 21.8% $0.43 $-0.27 $-1,350 $8,719 $34,269 $3,013 6 $17,500 70mo 0mo 1.53x PASS
7 46 Jun 30 102d 21.8% $0.55 $-0.39 $-1,950 $9,841 $30,238 $1,891 6 $17,500 111mo 0mo 1.53x PASS
8 46 Jun 18 90d 22.6% $0.40 $-0.24 $-1,200 $8,111 $38,528 $3,621 6 $20,000 66mo 0mo 1.57x PASS
9 46 Jun 30 102d 22.6% $0.50 $-0.34 $-1,700 $8,946 $33,995 $2,786 6 $20,000 86mo 0mo 1.57x PASS
10 46 Jul 17 119d 22.6% $0.59 $-0.43 $-2,150 $9,048 $29,139 $2,684 6 $20,000 89mo 0mo 1.57x PASS
11 46 Jun 18 90d 23.5% $0.37 $-0.21 $-1,050 $7,503 $38,528 $4,229 7 $22,500 64mo 0mo 1.61x PASS
12 46 Jun 30 102d 23.5% $0.43 $-0.27 $-1,350 $7,694 $33,995 $4,039 7 $22,500 67mo 0mo 1.61x PASS
13 45 Jun 18 90d 24.3% $0.34 $-0.18 $-900 $6,894 $32,444 $4,838 8 $25,000 62mo 0mo 1.66x PASS
14 45 Jul 17 119d 24.3% $0.48 $-0.32 $-1,600 $7,361 $24,538 $4,371 8 $25,000 69mo 0mo 1.66x PASS
15 45 Jun 30 102d 24.3% $0.44 $-0.28 $-1,400 $7,873 $28,627 $3,860 8 $25,000 78mo 0mo 1.66x PASS
POST-REPAIR SUSTAINABILITY CC chain Apr 24 (35d)
SCENARIO CC INCOME HEDGE COST VERDICT
CC at SS $58, B $2.45 $126,000/yr $10,950/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID $64 0.6σ, B $0.43 $22,114/yr $10,950/yr SELF-FUNDING
At Drawdown (stressed hedge)
CC at SS vs stressed $126,000/yr $50,897/yr SELF-FUNDING
CC at MID vs stressed $22,114/yr $50,897/yr DEFICIT $2,399/mo
SUSTAINABLE (NORMAL) Stress requires MID+ CC or capital

HP roll-downs do not change Safe Strike. SS = Max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2). HP is not in the formula.

Monthly hedge cost prorated: (30/DTE) × (Ask × Shares). Payback = ML increase / Annual savings.

EST = ask price estimated as mid × 1.10 (10% safety buffer). Verify with live prices before executing.

Always prefer longest viable DTE for repair rolls (fewer rolls/yr = lower annual cost).