| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug '26 (105d) | Fortress | $21C/$25P/$22P | 21 | +0.649/sh (+1,363) | $13,650 | $27.50 (+10%) | $-45/d | 1.27 | |
| ◆ | Nov '26 (196d) | Fortress | $20C/$25P/$18P | 14 | +0.613/sh (+858) | $9,520 | $26.80 (+7%) | $-16/d | 1.66 |
| ★ | Nov '26 (196d) | Pure | $20C | 19 | +0.759/sh (+1,442) | $19,190 | $30.10 (+20%) | $-30/d | 1.78 |
| Jan '27 (252d) | Fortress | $18C/$25P/$17P | 12 | +0.653/sh (+783) | $9,960 | $26.30 (+5%) | $-11/d | 1.50 | |
| Jan '28 (623d) | Fortress | $10C/$27P/$10P | 6 | +0.736/sh (+442) | $7,380 | $24.65 (-1%) | $-1/d | 1.05 | |
| ● | Now | Stock | 800 sh @ $24.99 | 800 | +1.000/sh (+800) | $19,992 | $24.99 (+0%) | $0/d | 1.13 |
★ = top breakout score across Fortress, Pure, Stock. ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Read in light of Score Breakdown + Stop Profile. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $20.0C | $10.10 | +0.759 |
| SP | SELL | $25.0P | $6.80 | -0.347 |
| HP | BUY | $18.0P | $3.50 | +0.201 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | +0.613/sh (+858) | $9,520 | $19,320 | $26.80 (+7%) | $-16/d | 3.7x | 1.66 | +341% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| $20C / $25P / $18P 14 contracts · Nov '26 (196d) |
$20C 19 contracts · Nov '26 (196d) |
||
| Score | 1.66 | 1.78 | PURE (-7%) |
| Contracts | 14 | 19 | PURE (-26%) |
| IC (capital) | $9,520 | $19,190 | FORT (-50%) |
| Max Loss | $19,320 | $19,190 | PURE (+1%) |
| Breakeven | $26.80 | $30.10 | FORT (-11%) |
| Theta/day | $-16 | $-30 | FORT (-45%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 387% | 228% | FORT (+70%) |
Pure scores 7% higher on breakout score (sigma-weighted (5 targets at 0.5-3sigma of expected move), expiry P&L net of theta over 6-month hold). Fortress remains capital-efficient (see dimensions); see Score Breakdown below for per-target P&L.
| sigma | Move | Price | Weight | Fortress 14ct | Pure 19ct | Stock 800sh | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5sigma | +37% | $34.22 | 15% | $+10,391 | $+7,832 | $+7,386 | (Fort) |
| 1sigma | +74% | $43.45 | 20% | $+23,315 | $+25,372 | $+14,771 | (Pure) |
| 1.5sigma | +111% | $52.69 | 30% | $+36,240 | $+42,913 | $+22,157 | (Pure) |
| 2sigma | +148% | $61.92 | 25% | $+49,165 | $+60,454 | $+29,542 | (Pure) |
| 3sigma | +222% | $80.38 | 10% | $+75,014 | $+95,535 | $+44,313 | (Pure) |
| Weighted average P&L | 100% | $+36,886 | $+43,790 | $+22,526 | (Pure) | ||
Each row is the at-expiry P&L if the stock lands at the target price. Score = (weighted-avg P&L) / (max-loss + theta-cost-over-hold) * time-fit. Read this table to override the score winner if your conviction favors a specific scenario row.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 14ct | Pure 19ct | Stock 800sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $23.74 | -$1,072 | -$1,802 | -$1,000 | |
| -10% | $22.49 | -$2,145 | -$3,604 | -$1,999 | |
| -15% | $21.24 | -$3,217 | -$5,405 | -$2,999 | |
| -20% | $19.99 | -$4,289 | -$7,207 | -$3,998 | |
| -30% | $17.49 | -$6,434 | -$10,811 | -$5,998 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 14ct Nov'26 | Pure 19ct Nov'26 | Stock 800sh | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $20 | $-16,531 | $-19,190 | $-3,998 | $+2,659 | (Stock) |
| +0% | $25 | $-2,548 | $-9,709 | $0 | $+7,161 | (Stock) |
| +25% | $31 | $+6,212 | $+2,161 | $+4,998 | $+4,051 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $37 | $+14,959 | $+14,032 | $+9,996 | $+928 | (Fort) |
| +75% | $44 | $+23,705 | $+25,902 | $+14,994 | $-2,196 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $50 | $+32,452 | $+37,772 | $+19,992 | $-5,320 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $75 | $+67,438 | $+85,253 | $+39,984 | $-17,815 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+36,886 | $+43,790 | $+22,526 | $-6,904 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Active directional view: targets at 0.5-3 sigma of expected move over the chosen horizon. 1.5-sigma carries the biggest weight (most likely breakout magnitude). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.