LEAPS Builder --all v6.0

IREN | 2026-05-06 23:39:26

All three modes (NORMAL + BREAKOUT + YOLO) on one page. Master Verdict summarizes; expand the per-mode sections below for full dashboards.

Master Verdict (--all)

Ticker	Use Case	Mode	Best Pick	Score	Breakeven	Lev	Theta/day	Verdict
IREN	Stock replacement (1-2yr)	NORMAL	$30C/$65P/$25P × 17ct Jan '28	85,741	$56.83 (-6%)	3.2x	$-8/d	FORTRESS_PREFERRED
IREN	Moderate-bull (1-2yr)	NORMAL	$55C/$65P/$42P × 25ct Jan '28	130,667	$71.70 (+19%)	3.6x	$-41/d	FORTRESS_PREFERRED
IREN	Active 6mo+ directional	BREAKOUT	$30C/$65P/$42P × 20ct Jan '28	1.3223	$60.80 (+1%)	2.3x	$-19/d	FORTRESS_PREFERRED
IREN	3-4x thesis (2yr)	YOLO	$80C/$50P/$42P × 36ct Jan '28	412,498	$99.65 (+66%)	3.1x	$-77/d	FORTRESS_PREFERRED

Score scales differ by mode: NORMAL/YOLO use WSPL (large integer, mode-specific weights); BREAKOUT uses sigma-weighted reward/risk (decimal). Don't compare scores across modes — compare WITHIN each row's column. Pick the structure whose use case matches your view.

IREN — All Modes

NORMAL (hold-to-expiry)

IREN @ $60.14

Sizing: $100,000 (ITM + OTM) | Chains: Jan 2028 (625d)

Bucket A: Deep ITM Stock Replacement ($100,000 ML budget)

All Candidates

	Chain	Type	Structure	Ct	Delta	IC	BE	Theta	Score
★	Jan '28 (625d)	Fortress	$30C/$65P/$25P	17	+0.684/sh (+1,163)	$31,705	$56.83 (-6%)	$-8/d	85,741
▲	Jan '28 (625d)	Pure	$25C	22	+0.916/sh (+2,016)	$95,810	$68.55 (+14%)	$-23/d	59,470

★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).

Best Fortress: $30C / $65P / $25P (Jan '28, 625d)

Leg	Action	Strike	Price	Delta
LC	BUY	$30.0C	$40.40	+0.891
SP	SELL	$65.0P	$27.80	-0.292
HP	BUY	$25.0P	$6.05	+0.085

Ct	Delta	IC	ML	BE	Theta	Lev	Score	ROIC
17	+0.684/sh (+1,163)	$31,705	$99,705	$56.83 (-6%)	$-8/d	3.2x	85,741	+384%

Verdict: FORTRESS PREFERRED

Dimension	Fortress	Pure	Winner
Score	85,741	59,470	FORT (+44%)
Contracts	17	22	PURE (-23%)
IC (capital)	$31,705	$95,810	FORT (-67%)
Max Loss	$99,705	$95,810	PURE (+4%)
Breakeven	$56.83	$68.55	FORT (-17%)
Theta/day	$-8	$-23	FORT (-64%)
ROIC (weighted)	207%	47%	FORT (+336%)

Fortress scores +44% with similar max loss (+4%). Clear winner.

Anchor Cost Analysis (Jan '28, 625d)

What you trade by anchoring to Jan '28 (625d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.

Fortress: anchor matches free choice (no delta)

Pure: anchor matches free choice (no delta)

Stop Profile (MTM loss if stop hits)

Stop	Stock at	Fortress 17ct	Pure 22ct	Stock 1,662sh
-5%	$57.13	-$3,498	-$6,061	-$4,998
-10%	$54.13	-$6,996	-$12,122	-$9,995
-15%	$51.12	-$10,494	-$18,183	-$14,993
-20%	$48.11	-$13,992	-$24,244	-$19,991
-30%	$42.10	-$20,988	-$36,367	-$29,986

Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.

P&L Comparison

Move	Price	Fortress 17ct Jan'28	Pure 22ct Jan'28	F-P Diff	Winner
-19%	$48	$-29,624	$-44,964	$+15,339	(Fort)
+0%	$60	$+11,271	$-18,502	$+29,773	(Fort)
+25%	$75	$+45,092	$+14,575	$+30,518	(Fort)
+50%	$90	$+70,652	$+47,652	$+23,000	(Fort)
+75%	$105	$+96,212	$+80,729	$+15,483	(Fort)
+100%	$120	$+121,771	$+113,806	$+7,965	(Fort)
+200%	$180	$+224,009	$+246,114	$-22,105	(Pure)
Weighted	—	$+65,523	$+45,447	$+20,076	(Fort)

How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Stock replacement view: small moves matter most. +25% gets the biggest weight, then +50% / +75%. -20% and flat both count (they hurt the score). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.

CC Overlay

No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.

Bucket B: OTM Max Leverage ($100,000 ML budget)

All Candidates

	Chain	Type	Structure	Ct	Delta	IC	BE	Theta	Score
★	Jan '28 (625d)	Fortress	$55C/$65P/$42P	25	+0.649/sh (+1,622)	$41,750	$71.70 (+19%)	$-41/d	130,667
▲	Jan '28 (625d)	Pure	$55C	32	+0.767/sh (+2,454)	$97,600	$85.50 (+42%)	$-62/d	113,262

Best Fortress: $55C / $65P / $42P (Jan '28, 625d)

Leg	Action	Strike	Price	Delta
LC	BUY	$55.0C	$30.50	+0.767
SP	SELL	$65.0P	$27.80	-0.292
HP	BUY	$42.0P	$14.00	+0.174

Ct	Delta	IC	ML	BE	Theta	Lev	Score	ROIC
25	+0.649/sh (+1,622)	$41,750	$99,250	$71.70 (+19%)	$-41/d	3.6x	130,667	+291%

Verdict: FORTRESS PREFERRED

Dimension	Fortress	Pure	Winner
Score	130,667	113,262	FORT (+15%)
Contracts	25	32	PURE (-22%)
IC (capital)	$41,750	$97,600	FORT (-57%)
Max Loss	$99,250	$97,600	PURE (+2%)
Breakeven	$71.70	$85.50	FORT (-16%)
Theta/day	$-41	$-62	FORT (-35%)
ROIC (weighted)	239%	89%	FORT (+170%)

Fortress scores +15% with similar max loss (+2%). Clear winner.

Anchor Cost Analysis (Jan '28, 625d)

Fortress: anchor matches free choice (no delta)

Pure: anchor matches free choice (no delta)

Stop Profile (MTM loss if stop hits)

Stop	Stock at	Fortress 25ct	Pure 32ct	Stock 1,662sh
-5%	$57.13	-$4,876	-$7,380	-$4,998
-10%	$54.13	-$9,753	-$14,760	-$9,995
-15%	$51.12	-$14,629	-$22,139	-$14,993
-20%	$48.11	-$19,505	-$29,519	-$19,991
-30%	$42.10	-$29,258	-$44,279	-$29,986

P&L Comparison

Move	Price	Fortress 25ct Jan'28	Pure 32ct Jan'28	F-P Diff	Winner
-19%	$48	$-83,970	$-97,600	$+13,630	(Fort)
+0%	$60	$-41,050	$-81,152	$+40,102	(Fort)
+25%	$75	$+8,687	$-33,040	$+41,728	(Fort)
+50%	$90	$+46,275	$+15,072	$+31,203	(Fort)
+75%	$105	$+83,863	$+63,184	$+20,679	(Fort)
+100%	$120	$+121,450	$+111,296	$+10,154	(Fort)
+200%	$180	$+271,800	$+303,744	$-31,944	(Pure)
Weighted	—	$+99,855	$+86,555	$+13,301	(Fort)

How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Convexity view: bigger moves matter most. +75% and +100% get the biggest weights. Tail at +200% counted; downside lightly weighted. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.

BREAKOUT (active directional)

IREN @ $60.14

Sizing: $100,000 (Deep ITM Only) | Chains: Jul 2026 (72d), Aug 2026 (107d), Sep 2026 (135d), Oct 2026 (163d), Nov 2026 (198d), Dec 2026 (226d), Jan 2027 (254d), Jan 2028 (625d)

BREAKOUT MODE — Bucket A only (deep ITM stock replacement) over a 6-month horizon. Score = (weighted P&L across sigma-scaled targets at 0.5/1.0/1.5/2.0/3.0σ of expected move (+35%, +70%, +105%, +140%, +210%; ATM IV 99%)) ÷ reward / max-loss + theta-cost, multiplied by time-fit. Stock baseline shown alongside Fortress and Pure for risk-budget comparison. Use for active directional trades; the Score Breakdown and Stop Profile cards below show per-target P&L and stop loss. | Anchored to Jan '28 (625d): all comparisons restricted to this chain. See Anchor Cost Analysis below.

Breakout Mode: 6-month horizon, sigma-targets: +35%, +70%, +105%, +140%, +210% (IV 99%) ($100,000 ML budget)

All Candidates

	Chain	Type	Structure	Ct	Delta	IC	BE	Theta	Score
	Jul '26 (72d)	Fortress	$50C/$65P/$55P	47	+0.597/sh (+2,808)	$51,465	$62.98 (+5%)	$-296/d	0.9962
	Aug '26 (107d)	Fortress	$50C/$65P/$55P	43	+0.617/sh (+2,654)	$55,685	$63.98 (+6%)	$-208/d	1.30
	Sep '26 (135d)	Fortress	$50C/$65P/$50P	38	+0.577/sh (+2,193)	$42,560	$63.10 (+5%)	$-152/d	1.50
	Oct '26 (163d)	Fortress	$50C/$65P/$49P	35	+0.582/sh (+2,035)	$43,925	$63.77 (+6%)	$-127/d	1.63
◆	Nov '26 (198d)	Fortress	$44C/$65P/$44P	28	+1.229/sh (+3,440)	$40,880	$61.80 (+3%)	$-12/d	1.81
	Dec '26 (226d)	Fortress	$42C/$65P/$42P	26	+0.620/sh (+1,612)	$39,780	$61.15 (+2%)	$-57/d	1.59
	Jan '27 (254d)	Fortress	$40C/$65P/$42P	25	+0.645/sh (+1,614)	$41,125	$60.73 (+1%)	$-51/d	1.58
★	Jan '28 (625d)	Fortress	$30C/$65P/$42P	20	+0.773/sh (+1,546)	$53,200	$60.80 (+1%)	$-19/d	1.32
▲	Jan '28 (625d)	Pure	$30C	24	+0.891/sh (+2,139)	$96,960	$70.40 (+17%)	$-30/d	1.27
●	Now	Stock	1,662 sh @ $60.14	1,662	+1.000/sh (+1,662)	$99,953	$60.14 (+0%)	$0/d	1.07

★ = top breakout score across Fortress, Pure, Stock. ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Read in light of Score Breakdown + Stop Profile. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).

Best Fortress: $30C / $65P / $42P (Jan '28, 625d)

Leg	Action	Strike	Price	Delta
LC	BUY	$30.0C	$40.40	+0.891
SP	SELL	$65.0P	$27.80	-0.292
HP	BUY	$42.0P	$14.00	+0.174

Ct	Delta	IC	ML	BE	Theta	Lev	Score	ROIC
20	+0.773/sh (+1,546)	$53,200	$99,200	$60.80 (+1%)	$-19/d	2.3x	1.32	+239%

Verdict: FORTRESS PREFERRED

Dimension	Fortress	Pure	Winner
Score	1.32	1.27	FORT (+4%)
Contracts	20	24	PURE (-17%)
IC (capital)	$53,200	$96,960	FORT (-45%)
Max Loss	$99,200	$96,960	PURE (+2%)
Breakeven	$60.80	$70.40	FORT (-14%)
Theta/day	$-19	$-30	FORT (-38%)
ROIC (weighted)	255%	134%	FORT (+91%)

Fortress scores 4% higher on breakout score (sigma-weighted (5 targets at 0.5-3sigma of expected move), expiry P&L net of theta over 6-month hold).

Anchor Cost Analysis (Jan '28, 625d)

Fortress

Dimension	Anchored (Fortress)	Free (Fortress)	Δ	Better
	$30C/$65P/$42P × 20ct Jan '28 (625d)	$44C/$65P/$44P × 28ct Nov '26 (198d)
Score	1.32	1.81	-26.9%	free
Contracts	20	28	-28.6%	free
IC (capital)	$53,200	$40,880	+12,320 (+30.1%)	free
Max Loss	$99,200	$99,680	-480	tie
Breakeven	$60.80	$61.80	-1.00 (-1.6%)	ANCHOR
Theta/day	$-19	$-12	-7 (-55.1%)	free
Weighted P&L	$135,631	$184,284	-48,653 (-26.4%)	free
ROIC (weighted)	255%	451%	-43.4%	free
DTE	625d	198d	+427d	ANCHOR

Anchor expensive (~32% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +427d runway. Wins: Breakeven. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).

Pure

Dimension	Anchored (Pure)	Free (Pure)	Δ	Better
	$30C × 24ct Jan '28 (625d)	$44C × 39ct Nov '26 (198d)
Score	1.27	1.72	-26.2%	free
Contracts	24	39	-38.5%	free
IC (capital)	$96,960	$99,840	-2,880 (-2.9%)	ANCHOR
Max Loss	$96,960	$99,840	-2,880 (-2.9%)	ANCHOR
Breakeven	$70.40	$69.60	+0.80 (+1.1%)	free
Theta/day	$-30	$-138	+108 (+78.2%)	ANCHOR
Weighted P&L	$129,638	$213,781	-84,143 (-39.4%)	free
ROIC (weighted)	134%	214%	-37.6%	free
DTE	625d	198d	+427d	ANCHOR

Anchor expensive (~34% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +427d runway. Wins: IC (capital), Max Loss, Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, Breakeven.

Score Breakdown (sigma-weighted (5 targets at 0.5-3sigma))

sigma	Move	Price	Weight	Fortress 20ct	Pure 24ct	Stock 1,662sh	Winner
0.5sigma	+35%	$81.21	15%	$+49,228	$+25,954	$+35,025	(Fort)
1sigma	+70%	$102.29	20%	$+91,376	$+76,531	$+70,050	(Fort)
1.5sigma	+105%	$123.36	30%	$+133,524	$+127,109	$+105,075	(Fort)
2sigma	+140%	$144.44	25%	$+175,672	$+177,686	$+140,100	(Pure)
3sigma	+210%	$186.58	10%	$+259,968	$+278,841	$+210,150	(Pure)
Weighted average P&L			100%	$+135,631	$+129,638	$+106,826	(Fort)

Each row is the at-expiry P&L if the stock lands at the target price. Score = (weighted-avg P&L) / (max-loss + theta-cost-over-hold) * time-fit. Read this table to override the score winner if your conviction favors a specific scenario row.

Stop Profile (MTM loss if stop hits)

Stop	Stock at	Fortress 20ct	Pure 24ct	Stock 1,662sh
-5%	$57.13	-$4,650	-$6,433	-$4,998
-10%	$54.13	-$9,299	-$12,866	-$9,995
-15%	$51.12	-$13,949	-$19,299	-$14,993
-20%	$48.11	-$18,598	-$25,732	-$19,991
-30%	$42.10	-$27,897	-$38,598	-$29,986

P&L Comparison

Move	Price	Fortress 20ct Jan'28	Pure 24ct Jan'28	Stock 1,662sh	F-P Diff	Winner
-19%	$48	$-50,752	$-53,491	$-19,991	$+2,739	(Stock)
+0%	$60	$-2,640	$-24,624	$0	$+21,984	(Stock)
+25%	$75	$+37,150	$+11,460	$+24,988	$+25,690	(Fort)
+50%	$90	$+67,220	$+47,544	$+49,976	$+19,676	(Fort)
+75%	$105	$+97,290	$+83,628	$+74,965	$+13,662	(Fort)
+100%	$120	$+127,360	$+119,712	$+99,953	$+7,648	(Fort)
+200%	$180	$+247,640	$+264,048	$+199,905	$-16,408	(Pure)
Weighted	—	$+135,631	$+129,638	$+106,826	$+5,994	(Fort)

How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Active directional view: targets at 0.5-3 sigma of expected move over the chosen horizon. 1.5-sigma carries the biggest weight (most likely breakout magnitude). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.

YOLO (3-4x thesis)

IREN @ $60.14

Sizing: $100,000 (OTM Only) | Chains: Jan 2028 (625d)

YOLO Mode: Widened OTM (LC max 300% of stock, 3-4x thesis, 2yr horizon) ($100,000 ML budget)

All Candidates

	Chain	Type	Structure	Ct	Delta	IC	BE	Theta	Score
★	Jan '28 (625d)	Fortress	$80C/$50P/$42P	36	+0.613/sh (+2,206)	$70,740	$99.65 (+66%)	$-77/d	412,498
▲	Jan '28 (625d)	Pure	$80C	42	+0.655/sh (+2,749)	$99,330	$103.65 (+72%)	$-96/d	459,530
●	Now	Stock	1,662 sh @ $60.14	1,662	+1.000/sh (+1,662)	$99,953	$60.14 (+0%)	$0/d	293,244

★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365), tail-weighted for 3-4x thesis. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).

Best Fortress: $80C / $50P / $42P (Jan '28, 625d)

Leg	Action	Strike	Price	Delta
LC	BUY	$80.0C	$23.65	+0.655
SP	SELL	$50.0P	$18.00	-0.216
HP	BUY	$42.0P	$14.00	+0.174

Ct	Delta	IC	ML	BE	Theta	Lev	Score	ROIC
36	+0.613/sh (+2,206)	$70,740	$99,540	$99.65 (+66%)	$-77/d	3.1x	412,498	+105%

Verdict: FORTRESS PREFERRED

Dimension	Fortress	Pure	Winner
Score	412,498	459,530	PURE (-10%)
Contracts	36	42	PURE (-14%)
IC (capital)	$70,740	$99,330	FORT (-29%)
Max Loss	$99,540	$99,330	TIE
Breakeven	$99.65	$103.65	FORT (-4%)
Theta/day	$-77	$-96	FORT (-20%)
ROIC (weighted)	446%	354%	FORT (+26%)

Pure scores +10% on raw P&L from extra contracts. Fortress wins 4/4 efficiency dims (IC, BE, theta, ROIC). Trade 10% score for capital efficiency.

Anchor Cost Analysis (Jan '28, 625d)

Fortress: anchor matches free choice (no delta)

Pure: anchor matches free choice (no delta)

Stop Profile (MTM loss if stop hits)

Stop	Stock at	Fortress 36ct	Pure 42ct	Stock 1,662sh
-5%	$57.13	-$6,634	-$8,267	-$4,998
-10%	$54.13	-$13,267	-$16,534	-$9,995
-15%	$51.12	-$19,901	-$24,801	-$14,993
-20%	$48.11	-$26,534	-$33,068	-$19,991
-30%	$42.10	-$39,801	-$49,602	-$29,986

P&L Comparison

Move	Price	Fortress 36ct Jan'28	Pure 42ct Jan'28	Stock 1,662sh	F-P Diff	Winner
-19%	$48	$-77,537	$-99,330	$-19,991	$+21,793	(Stock)
+0%	$60	$-70,740	$-99,330	$0	$+28,590	(Stock)
+50%	$90	$-33,984	$-56,448	$+49,976	$+22,464	(Stock)
+100%	$120	$+74,268	$+69,846	$+99,953	$+4,422	(Stock)
+200%	$180	$+290,772	$+322,434	$+199,905	$-31,662	(Pure)
+300%	$241	$+507,276	$+575,022	$+299,858	$-67,746	(Pure)
+400%	$301	$+723,780	$+827,610	$+399,811	$-103,830	(Pure)
+700%	$481	$+1,373,292	$+1,585,374	$+699,669	$-212,082	(Pure)
+1000%	$662	$+2,022,804	$+2,343,138	$+999,527	$-320,334	(Pure)
Weighted	—	$+315,230	$+351,172	$+208,790	$-35,942	(Pure)

How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. 3-4x thesis: huge moves matter most. +200% (3x) and +300% (4x) get the biggest weights. +400% counted as tail; +700% / +1000% rows shown above are eye candy and don't count. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.

CC Overlay

No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.