| Ticker | Use Case | Mode | Best Pick | Score | Breakeven | Lev | Theta/day | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Stock replacement (1-2yr) | NORMAL | $550C/$670P/$590P × 6ct Mar '27 |
147,864 | $653.00 (+6%) | 7.1x | $-92/d | FORTRESS_PREFERRED |
| META | Moderate-bull (1-2yr) | NORMAL | $890C/$700P/$630P × 20ct Mar '27 |
572,746 | $869.60 (+42%) | 12.4x | $-156/d | PURE_PREFERRED |
| META | Active 6mo+ directional | BREAKOUT | $560C/$670P/$595P × 7ct Nov '26 |
1.3579 | $646.50 (+5%) | 9.7x | $-133/d | PURE_PREFERRED |
| META | 3-4x thesis (2yr) | YOLO | $1070C/$700P/$630P × 27ct Mar '27 |
2,252,360 | $1036.85 (+69%) | 16.6x | $-198/d | PURE_PREFERRED |
| AMZN | Stock replacement (1-2yr) | NORMAL | $255C/$300P/$265P × 13ct Jul '27 |
156,564 | $298.30 (+8%) | 6.6x | $-77/d | FORTRESS_PREFERRED |
| AMZN | Moderate-bull (1-2yr) | NORMAL | $390C/$310P/$280P × 46ct Mar '27 |
630,423 | $381.60 (+38%) | 12.8x | $-222/d | PURE_PREFERRED |
| AMZN | Active 6mo+ directional | BREAKOUT | $255C/$300P/$270P × 18ct Oct '26 |
1.3140 | $289.52 (+5%) | 11.5x | $-159/d | PURE_PREFERRED |
| AMZN | 3-4x thesis (2yr) | YOLO | $410C/$310P/$280P × 51ct Mar '27 |
2,191,511 | $399.50 (+45%) | 14.2x | $-216/d | PURE_PREFERRED |
Score scales differ by mode: NORMAL/YOLO use WSPL (large integer, mode-specific weights); BREAKOUT uses sigma-weighted reward/risk (decimal). Don't compare scores across modes — compare WITHIN each row's column. Click any row to expand its full dashboard panel below.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $550C/$670P/$590P | 6 | +0.564/sh (+339) | $51,600 | $653.00 (+6%) | $-92/d | 147,864 |
| ▲ | Mar '27 (316d) | Pure | $550C | 7 | +0.721/sh (+504) | $89,740 | $678.20 (+11%) | $-104/d | 153,984 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $540C/$660P/$560P | 5 | +0.566/sh (+283) | $48,825 | $648.83 (+6%) | $-66/d | 138,140 | |
| Sep '27 (498d) | Fortress | $540C/$670P/$600P | 5 | -0.118/sh (-59) | $64,875 | $669.88 (+9%) | $-112/d | 134,976 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $560C/$650P/$580P | 5 | +0.804/sh (+402) | $64,600 | $689.20 (+12%) | $-61/d | 137,083 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $570C/$660P/$590P | 5 | +0.607/sh (+303) | $63,800 | $697.60 (+14%) | $-57/d | 135,334 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $550C/$670P/$560P | 4 | +0.600/sh (+240) | $54,280 | $685.70 (+12%) | $-42/d | 123,630 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $550C/$650P/$570P | 4 | +0.656/sh (+262) | $67,240 | $718.10 (+17%) | $-37/d | 119,740 |
| Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $570C | 5 | +0.726/sh (+363) | $98,950 | $767.90 (+25%) | $-48/d | 119,884 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $550.0C | $128.20 | +0.720 |
| SP | SELL | $670.0P | $105.80 | -0.519 |
| HP | BUY | $590.0P | $63.60 | +0.363 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | +0.564/sh (+339) | $51,600 | $99,600 | $653.00 (+6%) | $-92/d | 7.1x | 147,864 | +687% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 147,864 | 153,984 | PURE (-4%) |
| Contracts | 6 | 7 | PURE (-14%) |
| IC (capital) | $51,600 | $89,740 | FORT (-43%) |
| Max Loss | $99,600 | $89,740 | PURE (+11%) |
| Breakeven | $653.00 | $678.20 | FORT (-4%) |
| Theta/day | $-92 | $-104 | FORT (-12%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 308% | 184% | FORT (+67%) |
Score gap is small (4%). Fortress wins 4/4 efficiency dims. Build the fortress for capital efficiency.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $550C × 7ct Mar '27 (316d) |
$560C × 8ct Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 153,984 | 173,215 | -11.1% | free |
| Contracts | 7 | 8 | -12.5% | free |
| IC (capital) | $89,740 | $98,200 | -8,460 (-8.6%) | ANCHOR |
| Max Loss | $89,740 | $98,200 | -8,460 (-8.6%) | ANCHOR |
| Breakeven | $678.20 | $682.75 | -4.55 (-0.7%) | ANCHOR |
| Theta/day | $-104 | $-119 | +15 (+12.9%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $165,493 | $186,161 | -20,668 (-11.1%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 184% | 190% | -2.7% | free |
| DTE | 316d | 316d | +0d | tie |
Anchor expensive (~8% on score/P&L/ROIC). Wins: IC (capital), Max Loss, Breakeven. Loses: Score, Contracts, Weighted P&L.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 6ct | Pure 7ct | Stock 163sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $582.60 | -$10,381 | -$15,464 | -$4,998 | |
| -10% | $551.93 | -$20,762 | -$30,929 | -$9,996 | |
| -15% | $521.27 | -$31,143 | -$46,393 | -$14,994 | |
| -20% | $490.61 | -$41,524 | -$61,857 | -$19,992 | |
| -30% | $429.28 | -$62,286 | -$92,786 | -$29,988 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 6ct Mar'27 | Pure 7ct Mar'27 | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $491 | $-99,600 | $-89,740 | $-9,860 | (Pure) |
| +0% | $613 | $-47,688 | $-45,458 | $-2,230 | (Pure) |
| +25% | $767 | $+78,345 | $+61,863 | $+16,482 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $920 | $+170,334 | $+169,183 | $+1,151 | (Fort) |
| +75% | $1,073 | $+262,323 | $+276,503 | $-14,180 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $1,227 | $+354,312 | $+383,824 | $-29,512 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $1,840 | $+722,268 | $+813,106 | $-90,838 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+158,916 | $+165,493 | $-6,577 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Stock replacement view: small moves matter most. +25% gets the biggest weight, then +50% / +75%. -20% and flat both count (they hurt the score). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $890C/$700P/$630P | 20 | +0.065/sh (+129) | $-40,800 | $869.60 (+42%) | $-156/d | 572,746 |
| ▲ | Mar '27 (316d) | Pure | $890C | 46 | +0.200/sh (+921) | $98,210 | $911.35 (+49%) | $-311/d | 1,163,589 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $880C/$700P/$620P | 15 | +0.131/sh (+196) | $-20,475 | $866.35 (+41%) | $-172/d | 488,090 | |
| Sep '27 (498d) | Fortress | $830C/$690P/$620P | 11 | -0.584/sh (-642) | $20,900 | $849.00 (+38%) | $-243/d | 409,074 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $880C/$690P/$620P | 11 | -0.541/sh (-595) | $22,660 | $900.60 (+47%) | $-227/d | 384,423 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $850C/$700P/$630P | 10 | +0.254/sh (+254) | $29,600 | $879.60 (+43%) | $-108/d | 380,629 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $830C/$700P/$630P | 8 | +0.318/sh (+254) | $42,560 | $883.20 (+44%) | $-93/d | 330,414 | |
| Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $750C/$700P/$630P | 6 | +0.482/sh (+290) | $57,180 | $845.30 (+38%) | $-62/d | 300,668 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $770C | 8 | +0.544/sh (+435) | $99,960 | $894.95 (+46%) | $-83/d | 346,773 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $890.0C | $21.35 | +0.200 |
| SP | SELL | $700.0P | $125.45 | -0.577 |
| HP | BUY | $630.0P | $83.70 | +0.442 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | +0.065/sh (+129) | $-40,800 | $99,200 | $869.60 (+42%) | $-156/d | 12.4x | 572,746 | +0% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 572,746 | 1,163,589 | PURE (-51%) |
| Contracts | 20 | 46 | PURE (-57%) |
| IC (capital) | $-40,800 | $98,210 | FORT (-142%) |
| Max Loss | $99,200 | $98,210 | PURE (+1%) |
| Breakeven | $869.60 | $911.35 | FORT (-5%) |
| Theta/day | $-156 | $-311 | FORT (-50%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 0% | 1273% | PURE (-100%) |
Pure scores +51% — too wide a gap to justify the 3-leg fortress complexity. Buy the pure call.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $890C × 46ct Mar '27 (316d) |
$1140C × 158ct Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 1,163,589 | 1,939,977 | -40.0% | free |
| Contracts | 46 | 158 | -70.9% | free |
| IC (capital) | $98,210 | $99,540 | -1,330 (-1.3%) | ANCHOR |
| Max Loss | $98,210 | $99,540 | -1,330 (-1.3%) | ANCHOR |
| Breakeven | $911.35 | $1,146.30 | -234.95 (-20.5%) | ANCHOR |
| Theta/day | $-311 | $-315 | +4 (+1.3%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $1,250,554 | $2,084,968 | -834,414 (-40.0%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 1273% | 2095% | -39.2% | free |
| DTE | 316d | 316d | +0d | tie |
Anchor expensive (~40% on score/P&L/ROIC). Wins: IC (capital), Max Loss, Breakeven. Loses: Score, Contracts, Weighted P&L.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 20ct | Pure 46ct | Stock 163sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $582.60 | -$3,963 | -$28,238 | -$4,998 | |
| -10% | $551.93 | -$7,926 | -$56,476 | -$9,996 | |
| -15% | $521.27 | -$11,890 | -$84,715 | -$14,994 | |
| -20% | $490.61 | -$15,853 | -$112,953 | -$19,992 | |
| -30% | $429.28 | -$23,779 | -$169,429 | -$29,988 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 20ct Mar'27 | Pure 46ct Mar'27 | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $491 | $-99,200 | $-98,210 | $-990 | (Pure) |
| +0% | $613 | $-99,200 | $-98,210 | $-990 | (Pure) |
| +25% | $767 | $+40,800 | $-98,210 | $+139,010 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $920 | $+100,580 | $+39,284 | $+61,296 | (Fort) |
| +75% | $1,073 | $+407,210 | $+744,533 | $-337,323 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $1,227 | $+713,840 | $+1,449,782 | $-735,942 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $1,840 | $+1,940,360 | $+4,270,778 | $-2,330,418 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+615,552 | $+1,250,554 | $-635,002 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Convexity view: bigger moves matter most. +75% and +100% get the biggest weights. Tail at +200% counted; downside lightly weighted. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '26 (71d) | Fortress | $575C/$670P/$605P | 11 | +0.426/sh (+469) | $24,255 | $633.52 (+3%) | $-328/d | 0.9475 | |
| Aug '26 (106d) | Fortress | $560C/$670P/$590P | 8 | +0.466/sh (+373) | $32,480 | $635.30 (+4%) | $-199/d | 1.03 | |
| Sep '26 (134d) | Fortress | $555C/$670P/$600P | 8 | +0.501/sh (+401) | $42,920 | $639.33 (+4%) | $-210/d | 1.16 | |
| Oct '26 (162d) | Fortress | $560C/$670P/$580P | 7 | +0.465/sh (+326) | $33,390 | $638.85 (+4%) | $-142/d | 1.32 | |
| ◆ | Nov '26 (197d) | Fortress | $560C/$670P/$595P | 7 | +0.524/sh (+367) | $44,100 | $646.50 (+5%) | $-133/d | 1.36 |
| ▲ | Nov '26 (197d) | Pure | $560C | 9 | +0.706/sh (+635) | $92,655 | $662.95 (+8%) | $-164/d | 1.43 |
| Dec '26 (225d) | Fortress | $560C/$670P/$605P | 7 | +0.554/sh (+388) | $50,575 | $651.12 (+6%) | $-125/d | 1.33 | |
| Jan '27 (253d) | Fortress | $560C/$670P/$600P | 7 | +0.550/sh (+385) | $50,960 | $651.40 (+6%) | $-118/d | 1.29 | |
| Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $560C/$670P/$600P | 6 | +0.567/sh (+340) | $51,180 | $657.65 (+7%) | $-92/d | 1.16 | |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $540C/$660P/$560P | 5 | +0.566/sh (+283) | $48,825 | $648.83 (+6%) | $-66/d | 0.9910 | |
| Sep '27 (498d) | Fortress | $540C/$670P/$600P | 5 | -0.118/sh (-59) | $64,875 | $669.88 (+9%) | $-112/d | 0.7803 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $560C/$650P/$580P | 5 | +0.804/sh (+402) | $64,600 | $689.20 (+12%) | $-61/d | 0.7581 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $570C/$660P/$590P | 5 | +0.607/sh (+303) | $63,800 | $697.60 (+14%) | $-57/d | 0.7304 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $550C/$670P/$560P | 4 | +0.600/sh (+240) | $54,280 | $685.70 (+12%) | $-42/d | 0.6474 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $550C/$650P/$570P | 4 | +0.656/sh (+262) | $67,240 | $718.10 (+17%) | $-37/d | 0.5245 |
| ● | Now | Stock | 163 sh @ $613.26 | 163 | +1.000/sh (+163) | $99,961 | $613.26 (+0%) | $0/d | 0.3974 |
★ = top breakout score across Fortress, Pure, Stock. ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Read in light of Score Breakdown + Stop Profile. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $560.0C | $102.95 | +0.705 |
| SP | SELL | $670.0P | $92.50 | -0.563 |
| HP | BUY | $595.0P | $52.55 | +0.381 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | +0.524/sh (+367) | $44,100 | $96,600 | $646.50 (+5%) | $-133/d | 9.7x | 1.36 | +958% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1.36 | 1.43 | PURE (-5%) |
| Contracts | 7 | 9 | PURE (-22%) |
| IC (capital) | $44,100 | $92,655 | FORT (-52%) |
| Max Loss | $96,600 | $92,655 | PURE (+4%) |
| Breakeven | $646.50 | $662.95 | FORT (-2%) |
| Theta/day | $-133 | $-164 | FORT (-19%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 371% | 188% | FORT (+97%) |
Pure scores 5% higher on breakout score (sigma-weighted (5 targets at 0.5-3sigma of expected move), expiry P&L net of theta over 6-month hold). Fortress remains capital-efficient (see dimensions); see Score Breakdown below for per-target P&L.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| sigma | Move | Price | Weight | Fortress 7ct | Pure 9ct | Stock 163sh | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5sigma | +13% | $693.16 | 15% | $+49,109 | $+27,185 | $+13,023 | (Fort) |
| 1sigma | +26% | $773.05 | 20% | $+105,035 | $+99,090 | $+26,046 | (Fort) |
| 1.5sigma | +39% | $852.95 | 30% | $+160,962 | $+170,996 | $+39,069 | (Pure) |
| 2sigma | +52% | $932.84 | 25% | $+216,889 | $+242,902 | $+52,092 | (Pure) |
| 3sigma | +78% | $1,092.63 | 10% | $+328,742 | $+386,713 | $+78,137 | (Pure) |
| Weighted average P&L | 100% | $+163,758 | $+174,591 | $+39,720 | (Pure) | ||
Each row is the at-expiry P&L if the stock lands at the target price. Score = (weighted-avg P&L) / (max-loss + theta-cost-over-hold) * time-fit. Read this table to override the score winner if your conviction favors a specific scenario row.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 7ct | Pure 9ct | Stock 163sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $582.60 | -$11,250 | -$19,468 | -$4,998 | |
| -10% | $551.93 | -$22,500 | -$38,936 | -$9,996 | |
| -15% | $521.27 | -$33,750 | -$58,405 | -$14,994 | |
| -20% | $490.61 | -$45,000 | -$77,873 | -$19,992 | |
| -30% | $429.28 | -$67,500 | -$116,809 | -$29,988 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 7ct Nov'26 | Pure 9ct Nov'26 | Stock 163sh | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $491 | $-96,600 | $-92,655 | $-19,992 | $-3,945 | (Stock) |
| +0% | $613 | $-46,536 | $-44,721 | $0 | $-1,815 | (Stock) |
| +25% | $767 | $+100,503 | $+93,263 | $+24,990 | $+7,240 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $920 | $+207,823 | $+231,246 | $+49,981 | $-23,423 | (Pure) |
| +75% | $1,073 | $+315,143 | $+369,229 | $+74,971 | $-54,086 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $1,227 | $+422,464 | $+507,213 | $+99,961 | $-84,749 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $1,840 | $+851,746 | $+1,059,147 | $+199,923 | $-207,401 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+163,758 | $+174,591 | $+39,720 | $-10,833 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Active directional view: targets at 0.5-3 sigma of expected move over the chosen horizon. 1.5-sigma carries the biggest weight (most likely breakout magnitude). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $1070C/$700P/$630P | 27 | -0.040/sh (-108) | $-89,505 | $1036.85 (+69%) | $-198/d | 2,252,360 |
| ▲ | Mar '27 (316d) | Pure | $1070C | 116 | +0.096/sh (+1,107) | $99,760 | $1078.60 (+76%) | $-731/d | 9,271,389 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $1120C/$700P/$620P | 22 | -0.024/sh (-52) | $-76,120 | $1085.40 (+77%) | $-166/d | 1,983,073 | |
| Sep '27 (498d) | Fortress | $1140C/$690P/$620P | 19 | -0.780/sh (-1,481) | $-33,535 | $1122.35 (+83%) | $-281/d | 1,822,571 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $1200C/$690P/$620P | 18 | -0.736/sh (-1,324) | $-26,640 | $1185.20 (+93%) | $-296/d | 1,754,011 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $1190C/$700P/$630P | 17 | +0.072/sh (+122) | $-21,080 | $1177.60 (+92%) | $-125/d | 1,718,738 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $1190C/$700P/$630P | 14 | +0.137/sh (+192) | $1,260 | $1190.90 (+94%) | $-110/d | 1,546,282 | |
| Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $1160C/$700P/$630P | 11 | +0.214/sh (+235) | $22,880 | $1180.80 (+93%) | $-88/d | 1,360,947 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $1210C | 20 | +0.270/sh (+541) | $99,000 | $1259.50 (+105%) | $-161/d | 2,257,127 |
| ● | Now | Stock | 163 sh @ $613.26 | 163 | +1.000/sh (+163) | $99,961 | $613.26 (+0%) | $0/d | 293,270 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365), tail-weighted for 3-4x thesis. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $1070.0C | $8.60 | +0.095 |
| SP | SELL | $700.0P | $125.45 | -0.577 |
| HP | BUY | $630.0P | $83.70 | +0.442 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | -0.040/sh (-108) | $-89,505 | $99,495 | $1036.85 (+69%) | $-198/d | 16.6x | 2,252,360 | +0% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2,252,360 | 9,271,389 | PURE (-76%) |
| Contracts | 27 | 116 | PURE (-77%) |
| IC (capital) | $-89,505 | $99,760 | FORT (-190%) |
| Max Loss | $99,495 | $99,760 | TIE |
| Breakeven | $1,036.85 | $1,078.60 | FORT (-4%) |
| Theta/day | $-198 | $-731 | FORT (-73%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 0% | 9988% | PURE (-100%) |
Pure scores +76% — too wide a gap to justify the 3-leg fortress complexity. Buy the pure call.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1070C × 116ct Mar '27 (316d) |
$1140C × 158ct Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 9,271,389 | 11,782,522 | -21.3% | free |
| Contracts | 116 | 158 | -26.6% | free |
| IC (capital) | $99,760 | $99,540 | +220 | tie |
| Max Loss | $99,760 | $99,540 | +220 | tie |
| Breakeven | $1,078.60 | $1,146.30 | -67.70 (-5.9%) | ANCHOR |
| Theta/day | $-731 | $-315 | -416 (-132.0%) | free |
| Weighted P&L | $9,964,321 | $12,663,133 | -2,698,812 (-21.3%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 9988% | 12722% | -21.5% | free |
| DTE | 316d | 316d | +0d | tie |
Anchor expensive (~21% on score/P&L/ROIC). Wins: Breakeven. Loses: Score, Contracts, Theta/day.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 27ct | Pure 116ct | Stock 163sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $582.60 | -$3,321 | -$33,953 | -$4,998 | |
| -10% | $551.93 | -$6,643 | -$67,907 | -$9,996 | |
| -15% | $521.27 | -$9,964 | -$101,860 | -$14,994 | |
| -20% | $490.61 | -$13,286 | -$135,814 | -$19,992 | |
| -30% | $429.28 | -$19,928 | -$203,721 | -$29,988 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 27ct Mar'27 | Pure 116ct Mar'27 | Stock 163sh | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $491 | $-99,495 | $-99,760 | $-19,992 | $+265 | (Stock) |
| +0% | $613 | $-99,495 | $-99,760 | $0 | $+265 | (Stock) |
| +50% | $920 | $+89,505 | $-99,760 | $+49,981 | $+189,265 | (Fort) |
| +100% | $1,227 | $+512,109 | $+1,715,872 | $+99,961 | $-1,203,763 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $1,840 | $+2,167,911 | $+8,829,688 | $+199,923 | $-6,661,777 | (Pure) |
| +300% | $2,453 | $+3,823,713 | $+15,943,504 | $+299,884 | $-12,119,791 | (Pure) |
| +400% | $3,066 | $+5,479,515 | $+23,057,320 | $+399,846 | $-17,577,805 | (Pure) |
| +700% | $4,906 | $+10,446,921 | $+44,398,768 | $+699,730 | $-33,951,847 | (Pure) |
| +1000% | $6,746 | $+15,414,327 | $+65,740,216 | $+999,614 | $-50,325,889 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+2,420,699 | $+9,964,321 | $+208,808 | $-7,543,622 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. 3-4x thesis: huge moves matter most. +200% (3x) and +300% (4x) get the biggest weights. +400% counted as tail; +700% / +1000% rows shown above are eye candy and don't count. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $250C/$295P/$265P | 14 | +0.840/sh (+1,176) | $56,210 | $292.57 (+6%) | $-108/d | 152,923 | |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $240C/$290P/$260P | 12 | +0.593/sh (+711) | $63,120 | $292.60 (+6%) | $-90/d | 145,210 | |
| ◆ | Jul '27 (435d) | Fortress | $255C/$300P/$265P | 13 | +0.563/sh (+732) | $54,080 | $298.30 (+8%) | $-77/d | 156,564 |
| ▲ | Jul '27 (435d) | Pure | $255C | 16 | +0.704/sh (+1,127) | $95,200 | $314.50 (+14%) | $-93/d | 171,680 |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $255C/$300P/$270P | 12 | +0.610/sh (+732) | $63,720 | $308.10 (+11%) | $-63/d | 151,273 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $240C/$290P/$250P | 10 | +0.580/sh (+580) | $59,350 | $299.35 (+8%) | $-67/d | 140,103 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $250C/$280P/$250P | 10 | +0.643/sh (+643) | $68,600 | $318.60 (+15%) | $-44/d | 131,995 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $250C/$300P/$260P | 9 | +0.634/sh (+571) | $63,495 | $320.55 (+16%) | $-37/d | 124,391 |
| Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $250C | 11 | +0.741/sh (+815) | $97,900 | $339.00 (+23%) | $-45/d | 130,413 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $255.0C | $59.50 | +0.704 |
| SP | SELL | $300.0P | $48.20 | -0.494 |
| HP | BUY | $265.0P | $30.30 | +0.352 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | +0.563/sh (+732) | $54,080 | $99,580 | $298.30 (+8%) | $-77/d | 6.6x | 156,564 | +616% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 156,564 | 171,680 | PURE (-9%) |
| Contracts | 13 | 16 | PURE (-19%) |
| IC (capital) | $54,080 | $95,200 | FORT (-43%) |
| Max Loss | $99,580 | $95,200 | PURE (+5%) |
| Breakeven | $298.30 | $314.50 | FORT (-5%) |
| Theta/day | $-77 | $-93 | FORT (-17%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 265% | 165% | FORT (+61%) |
Score gap is small (9%). Fortress wins 4/4 efficiency dims. Build the fortress for capital efficiency.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $255C × 16ct Jul '27 (435d) |
$250C × 18ct Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 171,680 | 179,913 | -4.6% | free |
| Contracts | 16 | 18 | -11.1% | free |
| IC (capital) | $95,200 | $98,910 | -3,710 (-3.8%) | ANCHOR |
| Max Loss | $95,200 | $98,910 | -3,710 (-3.8%) | ANCHOR |
| Breakeven | $314.50 | $304.95 | +9.55 (+3.1%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-93 | $-117 | +24 (+20.4%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $157,261 | $193,359 | -36,098 (-18.7%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 165% | 195% | -15.5% | free |
| DTE | 435d | 316d | +119d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~13% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +119d runway. Wins: IC (capital), Max Loss, Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, Breakeven.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 13ct | Pure 16ct | Stock 361sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $262.56 | -$10,109 | -$15,568 | -$4,989 | |
| -10% | $248.74 | -$20,217 | -$31,136 | -$9,977 | |
| -15% | $234.92 | -$30,326 | -$46,704 | -$14,966 | |
| -20% | $221.10 | -$40,434 | -$62,272 | -$19,955 | |
| -30% | $193.47 | -$60,652 | -$93,408 | -$29,932 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 13ct Jul'27 | Pure 16ct Jul'27 | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $221 | $-99,580 | $-95,200 | $-4,380 | (Pure) |
| +0% | $276 | $-56,992 | $-60,992 | $+4,000 | (Fort) |
| +25% | $345 | $+63,538 | $+49,560 | $+13,978 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $415 | $+153,361 | $+160,112 | $-6,751 | (Pure) |
| +75% | $484 | $+243,184 | $+270,664 | $-27,480 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $553 | $+333,008 | $+381,216 | $-48,208 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $829 | $+692,302 | $+823,424 | $-131,122 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+143,415 | $+157,261 | $-13,846 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Stock replacement view: small moves matter most. +25% gets the biggest weight, then +50% / +75%. -20% and flat both count (they hurt the score). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $390C/$310P/$280P | 46 | +0.061/sh (+280) | $-38,640 | $381.60 (+38%) | $-222/d | 630,423 |
| ▲ | Mar '27 (316d) | Pure | $390C | 115 | +0.203/sh (+2,335) | $99,475 | $398.65 (+44%) | $-519/d | 1,420,368 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $410C/$315P/$285P | 43 | +0.090/sh (+385) | $-29,240 | $403.20 (+46%) | $-192/d | 585,137 | |
| Jul '27 (435d) | Fortress | $400C/$315P/$285P | 39 | +0.127/sh (+494) | $-17,355 | $395.55 (+43%) | $-188/d | 574,807 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $400C/$315P/$285P | 29 | +0.220/sh (+637) | $12,035 | $404.15 (+46%) | $-138/d | 465,676 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $380C/$310P/$280P | 25 | +0.255/sh (+637) | $24,125 | $389.65 (+41%) | $-108/d | 449,701 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $375C/$310P/$280P | 19 | +0.344/sh (+654) | $42,750 | $397.50 (+44%) | $-89/d | 355,924 | |
| Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $320C/$300P/$270P | 13 | +0.508/sh (+661) | $60,840 | $366.80 (+33%) | $-59/d | 321,000 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $380C | 23 | +0.471/sh (+1,083) | $98,900 | $423.00 (+53%) | $-99/d | 396,636 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $390.0C | $8.65 | +0.203 |
| SP | SELL | $310.0P | $49.90 | -0.571 |
| HP | BUY | $280.0P | $32.85 | +0.429 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | +0.061/sh (+280) | $-38,640 | $99,360 | $381.60 (+38%) | $-222/d | 12.8x | 630,423 | +0% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 630,423 | 1,420,368 | PURE (-56%) |
| Contracts | 46 | 115 | PURE (-60%) |
| IC (capital) | $-38,640 | $99,475 | FORT (-139%) |
| Max Loss | $99,360 | $99,475 | TIE |
| Breakeven | $381.60 | $398.65 | FORT (-4%) |
| Theta/day | $-222 | $-519 | FORT (-57%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 0% | 1535% | PURE (-100%) |
Pure scores +56% — too wide a gap to justify the 3-leg fortress complexity. Buy the pure call.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $390C × 115ct Mar '27 (316d) |
$410C × 152ct Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 1,420,368 | 1,671,340 | -15.0% | free |
| Contracts | 115 | 152 | -24.3% | free |
| IC (capital) | $99,475 | $99,560 | -85 | tie |
| Max Loss | $99,475 | $99,560 | -85 | tie |
| Breakeven | $398.65 | $416.55 | -17.90 (-4.3%) | ANCHOR |
| Theta/day | $-519 | $-597 | +78 (+13.1%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $1,526,524 | $1,796,254 | -269,729 (-15.0%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 1535% | 1804% | -14.9% | free |
| DTE | 316d | 316d | +0d | tie |
Anchor expensive (~15% on score/P&L/ROIC). Wins: Breakeven, Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, Weighted P&L.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 46ct | Pure 115ct | Stock 361sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $262.56 | -$3,875 | -$32,271 | -$4,989 | |
| -10% | $248.74 | -$7,750 | -$64,541 | -$9,977 | |
| -15% | $234.92 | -$11,625 | -$96,812 | -$14,966 | |
| -20% | $221.10 | -$15,499 | -$129,083 | -$19,955 | |
| -30% | $193.47 | -$23,249 | -$193,624 | -$29,932 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 46ct Mar'27 | Pure 115ct Mar'27 | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $221 | $-99,360 | $-99,475 | $+115 | (Fort) |
| +0% | $276 | $-99,360 | $-99,475 | $+115 | (Fort) |
| +25% | $345 | $+38,640 | $-99,475 | $+138,115 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $415 | $+151,662 | $+183,080 | $-31,418 | (Pure) |
| +75% | $484 | $+469,499 | $+977,672 | $-508,173 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $553 | $+787,336 | $+1,772,265 | $-984,929 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $829 | $+2,058,684 | $+4,950,635 | $-2,891,951 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+677,540 | $+1,526,524 | $-848,985 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Convexity view: bigger moves matter most. +75% and +100% get the biggest weights. Tail at +200% counted; downside lightly weighted. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '26 (71d) | Fortress | $260C/$300P/$270P | 25 | +0.387/sh (+968) | $23,750 | $284.75 (+3%) | $-324/d | 0.8861 | |
| Aug '26 (106d) | Fortress | $255C/$300P/$270P | 20 | +0.478/sh (+955) | $37,400 | $286.85 (+4%) | $-218/d | 1.03 | |
| Sep '26 (134d) | Fortress | $255C/$300P/$270P | 19 | +0.492/sh (+935) | $40,755 | $288.23 (+4%) | $-185/d | 1.18 | |
| ◆ | Oct '26 (162d) | Fortress | $255C/$300P/$270P | 18 | +0.503/sh (+906) | $43,290 | $289.52 (+5%) | $-159/d | 1.31 |
| ▲ | Oct '26 (162d) | Pure | $255C | 25 | +0.706/sh (+1,764) | $98,875 | $294.55 (+7%) | $-211/d | 1.43 |
| Nov '26 (197d) | Fortress | $250C/$300P/$270P | 16 | +0.547/sh (+875) | $49,200 | $290.38 (+5%) | $-134/d | 1.29 | |
| Dec '26 (225d) | Fortress | $245C/$300P/$270P | 15 | +1.648/sh (+2,472) | $53,400 | $290.30 (+5%) | $-107/d | 1.25 | |
| Jan '27 (253d) | Fortress | $255C/$275P/$245P | 15 | +0.835/sh (+1,252) | $52,950 | $290.30 (+5%) | $-37/d | 1.27 | |
| Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $250C/$300P/$270P | 14 | +1.616/sh (+2,262) | $55,440 | $294.80 (+7%) | $-63/d | 1.15 | |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $240C/$290P/$260P | 12 | +0.593/sh (+711) | $63,120 | $292.60 (+6%) | $-90/d | 0.8971 | |
| Jul '27 (435d) | Fortress | $255C/$300P/$270P | 13 | +0.582/sh (+757) | $57,070 | $299.45 (+8%) | $-77/d | 0.9457 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $250C/$300P/$260P | 11 | +0.591/sh (+650) | $55,880 | $300.80 (+9%) | $-57/d | 0.7801 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $240C/$290P/$250P | 10 | +0.580/sh (+580) | $59,350 | $299.35 (+8%) | $-67/d | 0.7141 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $250C/$280P/$250P | 10 | +0.643/sh (+643) | $68,600 | $318.60 (+15%) | $-44/d | 0.5657 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $250C/$300P/$260P | 9 | +0.634/sh (+571) | $63,495 | $320.55 (+16%) | $-37/d | 0.4943 |
| ● | Now | Stock | 361 sh @ $276.38 | 361 | +1.000/sh (+361) | $99,773 | $276.38 (+0%) | $0/d | 0.3709 |
★ = top breakout score across Fortress, Pure, Stock. ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Read in light of Score Breakdown + Stop Profile. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $255.0C | $39.55 | +0.706 |
| SP | SELL | $300.0P | $34.80 | -0.597 |
| HP | BUY | $270.0P | $19.30 | +0.394 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | +0.503/sh (+906) | $43,290 | $97,290 | $289.52 (+5%) | $-159/d | 11.5x | 1.31 | +1138% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1.31 | 1.43 | PURE (-8%) |
| Contracts | 18 | 25 | PURE (-28%) |
| IC (capital) | $43,290 | $98,875 | FORT (-56%) |
| Max Loss | $97,290 | $98,875 | FORT (-2%) |
| Breakeven | $289.52 | $294.55 | FORT (-2%) |
| Theta/day | $-159 | $-211 | FORT (-24%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 415% | 213% | FORT (+95%) |
Pure scores 8% higher on breakout score (sigma-weighted (5 targets at 0.5-3sigma of expected move), expiry P&L net of theta over 6-month hold). Fortress remains capital-efficient (see dimensions); see Score Breakdown below for per-target P&L.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| sigma | Move | Price | Weight | Fortress 18ct | Pure 25ct | Stock 361sh | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5sigma | +12% | $309.99 | 15% | $+55,687 | $+38,593 | $+12,132 | (Fort) |
| 1sigma | +24% | $343.59 | 20% | $+116,179 | $+122,610 | $+24,264 | (Pure) |
| 1.5sigma | +36% | $377.20 | 30% | $+176,672 | $+206,628 | $+36,396 | (Pure) |
| 2sigma | +49% | $410.81 | 25% | $+237,165 | $+290,645 | $+48,529 | (Pure) |
| 3sigma | +73% | $478.02 | 10% | $+358,150 | $+458,681 | $+72,793 | (Pure) |
| Weighted average P&L | 100% | $+179,697 | $+210,829 | $+37,003 | (Pure) | ||
Each row is the at-expiry P&L if the stock lands at the target price. Score = (weighted-avg P&L) / (max-loss + theta-cost-over-hold) * time-fit. Read this table to override the score winner if your conviction favors a specific scenario row.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 18ct | Pure 25ct | Stock 361sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $262.56 | -$12,520 | -$24,379 | -$4,989 | |
| -10% | $248.74 | -$25,040 | -$48,758 | -$9,977 | |
| -15% | $234.92 | -$37,560 | -$73,137 | -$14,966 | |
| -20% | $221.10 | -$50,081 | -$97,516 | -$19,955 | |
| -30% | $193.47 | -$75,121 | -$146,274 | -$29,932 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 18ct Oct'26 | Pure 25ct Oct'26 | Stock 361sh | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $221 | $-97,290 | $-98,875 | $-19,955 | $+1,585 | (Stock) |
| +0% | $276 | $-47,322 | $-45,425 | $0 | $-1,897 | (Stock) |
| +25% | $345 | $+119,565 | $+127,313 | $+24,943 | $-7,748 | (Pure) |
| +50% | $415 | $+243,936 | $+300,050 | $+49,887 | $-56,114 | (Pure) |
| +75% | $484 | $+368,307 | $+472,787 | $+74,830 | $-104,480 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $553 | $+492,678 | $+645,525 | $+99,773 | $-152,847 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $829 | $+990,162 | $+1,336,475 | $+199,546 | $-346,313 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+179,697 | $+210,829 | $+37,003 | $-31,132 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Active directional view: targets at 0.5-3 sigma of expected move over the chosen horizon. 1.5-sigma carries the biggest weight (most likely breakout magnitude). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $410C/$310P/$280P | 51 | +0.018/sh (+90) | $-53,550 | $399.50 (+45%) | $-216/d | 2,191,511 |
| ▲ | Mar '27 (316d) | Pure | $410C | 152 | +0.160/sh (+2,428) | $99,560 | $416.55 (+51%) | $-597/d | 6,315,810 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $410C/$315P/$285P | 43 | +0.090/sh (+385) | $-29,240 | $403.20 (+46%) | $-192/d | 2,077,629 | |
| Jul '27 (435d) | Fortress | $410C/$315P/$285P | 41 | +0.107/sh (+438) | $-23,575 | $404.25 (+46%) | $-179/d | 2,045,825 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $410C/$315P/$285P | 30 | +0.200/sh (+599) | $7,350 | $412.45 (+49%) | $-132/d | 1,710,633 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $410C/$310P/$280P | 29 | +0.200/sh (+581) | $12,180 | $414.20 (+50%) | $-100/d | 1,695,398 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $410C/$310P/$280P | 22 | +0.277/sh (+608) | $31,680 | $424.40 (+54%) | $-92/d | 1,397,041 | |
| Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $400C/$300P/$270P | 18 | +0.355/sh (+639) | $44,820 | $424.90 (+54%) | $-74/d | 1,268,243 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $410C | 27 | +0.419/sh (+1,131) | $99,900 | $447.00 (+62%) | $-112/d | 1,815,437 |
| ● | Now | Stock | 361 sh @ $276.38 | 361 | +1.000/sh (+361) | $99,773 | $276.38 (+0%) | $0/d | 292,718 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365), tail-weighted for 3-4x thesis. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $410.0C | $6.55 | +0.160 |
| SP | SELL | $310.0P | $49.90 | -0.571 |
| HP | BUY | $280.0P | $32.85 | +0.429 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | +0.018/sh (+90) | $-53,550 | $99,450 | $399.50 (+45%) | $-216/d | 14.2x | 2,191,511 | +0% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2,191,511 | 6,315,810 | PURE (-65%) |
| Contracts | 51 | 152 | PURE (-66%) |
| IC (capital) | $-53,550 | $99,560 | FORT (-154%) |
| Max Loss | $99,450 | $99,560 | TIE |
| Breakeven | $399.50 | $416.55 | FORT (-4%) |
| Theta/day | $-216 | $-597 | FORT (-64%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 0% | 6818% | PURE (-100%) |
Pure scores +65% — too wide a gap to justify the 3-leg fortress complexity. Buy the pure call.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 51ct | Pure 152ct | Stock 361sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $262.56 | -$1,244 | -$33,558 | -$4,989 | |
| -10% | $248.74 | -$2,489 | -$67,116 | -$9,977 | |
| -15% | $234.92 | -$3,733 | -$100,674 | -$14,966 | |
| -20% | $221.10 | -$4,977 | -$134,232 | -$19,955 | |
| -30% | $193.47 | -$7,466 | -$201,348 | -$29,932 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 51ct Mar'27 | Pure 152ct Mar'27 | Stock 361sh | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $221 | $-99,450 | $-99,560 | $-19,955 | $+110 | (Stock) |
| +0% | $276 | $-99,450 | $-99,560 | $0 | $+110 | (Stock) |
| +50% | $415 | $+76,857 | $-30,096 | $+49,887 | $+106,953 | (Fort) |
| +100% | $553 | $+781,626 | $+2,070,392 | $+99,773 | $-1,288,766 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $829 | $+2,191,164 | $+6,271,368 | $+199,546 | $-4,080,204 | (Pure) |
| +300% | $1,106 | $+3,600,702 | $+10,472,344 | $+299,320 | $-6,871,642 | (Pure) |
| +400% | $1,382 | $+5,010,240 | $+14,673,320 | $+399,093 | $-9,663,080 | (Pure) |
| +700% | $2,211 | $+9,238,854 | $+27,276,248 | $+698,412 | $-18,037,394 | (Pure) |
| +1000% | $3,040 | $+13,467,468 | $+39,879,176 | $+997,732 | $-26,411,708 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+2,355,302 | $+6,787,846 | $+208,415 | $-4,432,544 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. 3-4x thesis: huge moves matter most. +200% (3x) and +300% (4x) get the biggest weights. +400% counted as tail; +700% / +1000% rows shown above are eye candy and don't count. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.