| Ticker | Use Case | Mode | Best Pick | Score | Breakeven | Lev | Theta/day | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Stock replacement (1-2yr) | NORMAL | $460C/$640P/$530P × 3ct Dec '28 |
105,247 | $683.31 (+11%) | 2.8x | $-19/d | FORTRESS_PREFERRED |
| META | Moderate-bull (1-2yr) | NORMAL | $690C/$700P/$630P × 5ct Dec '28 |
271,480 | $818.04 (+33%) | 4.8x | $-74/d | FORTRESS_PREFERRED |
| META | Active 6mo+ directional | BREAKOUT | $460C/$640P/$530P × 3ct Dec '28 |
0.5131 | $683.31 (+11%) | 2.8x | $-19/d | FORTRESS_PREFERRED |
| META | 3-4x thesis (2yr) | YOLO | $1160C/$700P/$630P × 10ct Dec '28 |
1,232,364 | $1189.71 (+93%) | 20.7x | $-105/d | PURE_PREFERRED |
| AMZN | Stock replacement (1-2yr) | NORMAL | $240C/$280P/$240P × 8ct Dec '28 |
107,390 | $323.20 (+17%) | 3.3x | $-44/d | FORTRESS_PREFERRED |
| AMZN | Moderate-bull (1-2yr) | NORMAL | $330C/$310P/$280P × 13ct Dec '28 |
297,540 | $376.82 (+37%) | 5.9x | $-102/d | FORTRESS_PREFERRED |
| AMZN | Active 6mo+ directional | BREAKOUT | $240C/$280P/$240P × 8ct Dec '28 |
0.4711 | $323.20 (+17%) | 3.3x | $-44/d | FORTRESS_PREFERRED |
| AMZN | 3-4x thesis (2yr) | YOLO | $400C/$310P/$280P × 17ct Dec '28 |
1,180,180 | $428.18 (+55%) | 9.8x | $-128/d | PURE_PREFERRED |
Score scales differ by mode: NORMAL/YOLO use WSPL (large integer, mode-specific weights); BREAKOUT uses sigma-weighted reward/risk (decimal). Don't compare scores across modes — compare WITHIN each row's column. Click any row to expand its full dashboard panel below.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $540C/$670P/$570P | 5 | +0.892/sh (+446) | $47,977 | $652.98 (+6%) | $-119/d | 123,534 | |
| ◆ | Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $540C/$660P/$580P | 5 | +0.834/sh (+417) | $59,987 | $659.99 (+7%) | $-110/d | 128,897 |
| Sep '27 (498d) | Fortress | $540C/$670P/$530P | 4 | +0.932/sh (+373) | $43,062 | $658.83 (+7%) | $-44/d | 117,041 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $540C/$660P/$540P | 4 | +0.892/sh (+357) | $51,463 | $668.66 (+9%) | $-41/d | 118,096 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $530C/$620P/$520P | 4 | +0.843/sh (+337) | $59,844 | $679.61 (+10%) | $-44/d | 118,877 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $540C/$600P/$530P | 4 | +1.331/sh (+532) | $71,305 | $718.26 (+17%) | $-35/d | 111,949 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $460C/$640P/$530P | 3 | +0.934/sh (+280) | $66,993 | $683.31 (+11%) | $-19/d | 105,247 |
| ▲ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $490C | 4 | +0.798/sh (+319) | $99,464 | $738.66 (+20%) | $-35/d | 112,475 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $460.0C | $266.55 | +0.824 |
| SP | SELL | $640.0P | $129.45 | +0.390 |
| HP | BUY | $530.0P | $86.20 | -0.281 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | +0.934/sh (+280) | $66,993 | $99,993 | $683.31 (+11%) | $-19/d | 2.8x | 105,247 | +245% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| $460C / $640P / $530P 3 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
$490C 4 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
||
| Score | 105,247 | 112,475 | PURE (-6%) |
| Contracts | 3 | 4 | PURE (-25%) |
| IC (capital) | $66,993 | $99,464 | FORT (-33%) |
| Max Loss | $99,993 | $99,464 | PURE (+1%) |
| Breakeven | $683.31 | $738.66 | FORT (-7%) |
| Theta/day | $-19 | $-35 | FORT (-46%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 97% | 70% | FORT (+39%) |
Score gap is small (6%). Fortress wins 4/4 efficiency dims. Build the fortress for capital efficiency.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Fortress) | Free (Fortress) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460C / $640P / $530P × 3 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
$540C / $660P / $580P × 5 contracts Jun '27 (406d) |
|||
| Score | 105,247 | 128,897 | -18.3% | free |
| Contracts | 3 | 5 | -40.0% | free |
| IC (capital) | $66,993 | $59,987 | +7,006 (+11.7%) | free |
| Max Loss | $99,993 | $99,987 | +6 | tie |
| Breakeven | $683.31 | $659.99 | +23.32 (+3.5%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-19 | $-110 | +91 (+83.0%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $65,134 | $122,216 | -57,082 (-46.7%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 97% | 204% | -52.3% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 406d | +547d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~39% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +547d runway. Wins: Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Call $490 × 4 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
Long Call $540 × 7 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 112,475 | 153,939 | -26.9% | free |
| Contracts | 4 | 7 | -42.9% | free |
| IC (capital) | $99,464 | $98,218 | +1,246 (+1.3%) | free |
| Max Loss | $99,464 | $98,218 | +1,246 (+1.3%) | free |
| Breakeven | $738.66 | $680.31 | +58.35 (+8.6%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-35 | $-144 | +109 (+75.9%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $69,608 | $165,445 | -95,837 (-57.9%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 70% | 168% | -58.5% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~48% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 3ct | Pure 4ct | Stock 162sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $584.53 | -$8,618 | -$9,819 | -$4,984 | |
| -10% | $553.76 | -$17,236 | -$19,638 | -$9,968 | |
| -15% | $523.00 | -$25,853 | -$29,457 | -$14,952 | |
| -20% | $492.23 | -$34,471 | -$39,276 | -$19,935 | |
| -30% | $430.70 | -$51,707 | -$58,915 | -$29,903 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 3ct Dec'28 | Pure 4ct Dec'28 | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $492 | $-90,324 | $-98,572 | $+8,248 | (Fort) |
| +0% | $615 | $-27,819 | $-49,348 | $+21,529 | (Fort) |
| +25% | $769 | $+25,740 | $+12,181 | $+13,560 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $923 | $+71,887 | $+73,710 | $-1,822 | (Pure) |
| +75% | $1,077 | $+118,034 | $+135,239 | $-17,205 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $1,231 | $+164,181 | $+196,768 | $-32,587 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $1,846 | $+348,768 | $+442,884 | $-94,116 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+65,134 | $+69,608 | $-4,474 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Stock replacement view: small moves matter most. +25% gets the biggest weight, then +50% / +75%. -20% and flat both count (they hurt the score). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $870C/$700P/$630P | 16 | +0.340/sh (+544) | $-12,868 | $861.96 (+40%) | $-314/d | 469,712 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $880C/$700P/$620P | 13 | +0.374/sh (+487) | $-4,001 | $876.92 (+43%) | $-246/d | 413,213 | |
| Sep '27 (498d) | Fortress | $850C/$700P/$630P | 11 | +0.410/sh (+451) | $22,898 | $870.82 (+42%) | $-201/d | 389,727 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $820C/$700P/$630P | 9 | +0.458/sh (+412) | $36,516 | $860.57 (+40%) | $-169/d | 352,773 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $840C/$680P/$610P | 9 | +0.448/sh (+403) | $36,795 | $880.88 (+43%) | $-152/d | 343,385 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $800C/$690P/$620P | 7 | +0.508/sh (+356) | $49,422 | $870.60 (+41%) | $-128/d | 300,327 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $690C/$700P/$630P | 5 | +0.681/sh (+340) | $64,020 | $818.04 (+33%) | $-74/d | 271,480 |
| ▲ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $790C | 8 | +0.473/sh (+378) | $97,927 | $912.41 (+48%) | $-103/d | 332,941 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $690.0C | $154.42 | +0.614 |
| SP | SELL | $700.0P | $163.71 | +0.448 |
| HP | BUY | $630.0P | $137.33 | -0.381 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | +0.681/sh (+340) | $64,020 | $99,020 | $818.04 (+33%) | $-74/d | 4.8x | 271,480 | +322% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| $690C / $700P / $630P 5 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
$790C 8 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
||
| Score | 271,480 | 332,941 | PURE (-18%) |
| Contracts | 5 | 8 | PURE (-38%) |
| IC (capital) | $64,020 | $97,927 | FORT (-35%) |
| Max Loss | $99,020 | $97,927 | PURE (+1%) |
| Breakeven | $818.04 | $912.41 | FORT (-10%) |
| Theta/day | $-74 | $-103 | FORT (-28%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 262% | 210% | FORT (+25%) |
Pure scores +18% on raw P&L from extra contracts. Fortress wins 4/4 efficiency dims (IC, BE, theta, ROIC). Trade 18% score for capital efficiency.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Fortress) | Free (Fortress) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $690C / $700P / $630P × 5 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
$870C / $700P / $630P × 16 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 271,480 | 469,712 | -42.2% | free |
| Contracts | 5 | 16 | -68.8% | free |
| IC (capital) | $64,020 | $-12,868 | +76,888 (+597.5%) | free |
| Max Loss | $99,020 | $99,132 | -112 | tie |
| Breakeven | $818.04 | $861.96 | -43.92 (-5.1%) | ANCHOR |
| Theta/day | $-74 | $-314 | +240 (+76.5%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $168,011 | $504,818 | -336,807 (-66.7%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 262% | 0% | +0.0% | tie |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~36% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: Breakeven, Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital). ⚠ Free pick is a short-DTE lottery ticket (16 contracts in 316d). Score is inflated by contract count, not realistic to actually trade at this size.
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Call $790 × 8 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
Long Call $1140 × 156 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 332,941 | 1,943,514 | -82.9% | free |
| Contracts | 8 | 156 | -94.9% | free |
| IC (capital) | $97,927 | $99,754 | -1,827 (-1.8%) | ANCHOR |
| Max Loss | $97,927 | $99,754 | -1,827 (-1.8%) | ANCHOR |
| Breakeven | $912.41 | $1,146.39 | -233.98 (-20.4%) | ANCHOR |
| Theta/day | $-103 | $-316 | +213 (+67.4%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $206,048 | $2,088,770 | -1,882,722 (-90.1%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 210% | 2094% | -90.0% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~88% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: IC (capital), Max Loss, Breakeven. Loses: Score, Contracts, Weighted P&L. ⚠ Free pick is a short-DTE lottery ticket (156 contracts in 316d). Score is inflated by contract count, not realistic to actually trade at this size.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 5ct | Pure 8ct | Stock 162sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $584.53 | -$10,475 | -$11,641 | -$4,984 | |
| -10% | $553.76 | -$20,950 | -$23,283 | -$9,968 | |
| -15% | $523.00 | -$31,425 | -$34,924 | -$14,952 | |
| -20% | $492.23 | -$41,900 | -$46,565 | -$19,935 | |
| -30% | $430.70 | -$62,850 | -$69,848 | -$29,903 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 5ct Dec'28 | Pure 8ct Dec'28 | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $492 | $-99,020 | $-97,927 | $-1,093 | (Pure) |
| +0% | $615 | $-99,020 | $-97,927 | $-1,093 | (Pure) |
| +25% | $769 | $-24,464 | $-97,927 | $+73,464 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $923 | $+52,448 | $+8,421 | $+44,027 | (Fort) |
| +75% | $1,077 | $+129,359 | $+131,479 | $-2,120 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $1,231 | $+206,270 | $+254,537 | $-48,267 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $1,846 | $+513,915 | $+746,769 | $-232,854 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+168,011 | $+206,048 | $-38,037 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Convexity view: bigger moves matter most. +75% and +100% get the biggest weights. Tail at +200% counted; downside lightly weighted. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '26 (71d) | Fortress | $570C/$655P/$590P | 10 | +0.955/sh (+955) | $34,884 | $629.94 (+2%) | $-413/d | 0.7792 | |
| Aug '26 (106d) | Fortress | $560C/$670P/$600P | 8 | +0.942/sh (+754) | $41,615 | $641.01 (+4%) | $-341/d | 0.8739 | |
| Sep '26 (134d) | Fortress | $560C/$675P/$580P | 7 | +0.963/sh (+674) | $32,346 | $640.60 (+4%) | $-264/d | 0.9852 | |
| ◆ | Oct '26 (162d) | Fortress | $550C/$670P/$600P | 7 | +1.696/sh (+1,187) | $50,071 | $645.77 (+5%) | $-154/d | 1.21 |
| Nov '26 (197d) | Fortress | $550C/$675P/$580P | 6 | -0.223/sh (-134) | $41,504 | $647.09 (+5%) | $-215/d | 1.05 | |
| Dec '26 (225d) | Fortress | $550C/$615P/$540P | 6 | +0.864/sh (+519) | $54,882 | $641.47 (+4%) | $-70/d | 1.17 | |
| Jan '27 (253d) | Fortress | $550C/$630P/$560P | 6 | +0.844/sh (+506) | $57,431 | $645.72 (+5%) | $-107/d | 1.08 | |
| Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $540C/$670P/$570P | 5 | +0.892/sh (+446) | $47,977 | $652.98 (+6%) | $-119/d | 0.9383 | |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $540C/$660P/$580P | 5 | +0.834/sh (+417) | $59,987 | $659.99 (+7%) | $-110/d | 0.8352 | |
| Sep '27 (498d) | Fortress | $540C/$670P/$530P | 4 | +0.932/sh (+373) | $43,062 | $658.83 (+7%) | $-44/d | 0.7943 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $540C/$660P/$540P | 4 | +0.892/sh (+357) | $51,463 | $668.66 (+9%) | $-41/d | 0.7167 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $530C/$620P/$520P | 4 | +0.843/sh (+337) | $59,844 | $679.61 (+10%) | $-44/d | 0.6697 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $540C/$600P/$530P | 4 | +1.331/sh (+532) | $71,305 | $718.26 (+17%) | $-35/d | 0.5376 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $460C/$640P/$530P | 3 | +0.934/sh (+280) | $66,993 | $683.31 (+11%) | $-19/d | 0.5131 |
| ▲ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $460C | 3 | +0.824/sh (+247) | $79,966 | $726.55 (+18%) | $-25/d | 0.4747 |
| ● | Now | Stock | 162 sh @ $615.29 | 162 | +1.000/sh (+162) | $99,677 | $615.29 (+0%) | $0/d | 0.3979 |
★ = top breakout score across Fortress, Pure, Stock. ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Read in light of Score Breakdown + Stop Profile. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $460.0C | $266.55 | +0.824 |
| SP | SELL | $640.0P | $129.45 | +0.390 |
| HP | BUY | $530.0P | $86.20 | -0.281 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | +0.934/sh (+280) | $66,993 | $99,993 | $683.31 (+11%) | $-19/d | 2.8x | 0.5131 | +245% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| $460C / $640P / $530P 3 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
$460C 3 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
||
| Score | 0.5131 | 0.4747 | FORT (+8%) |
| Contracts | 3 | 3 | TIE |
| IC (capital) | $66,993 | $79,966 | FORT (-16%) |
| Max Loss | $99,993 | $79,966 | PURE (+25%) |
| Breakeven | $683.31 | $726.55 | FORT (-6%) |
| Theta/day | $-19 | $-25 | FORT (-24%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 79% | 50% | FORT (+58%) |
Fortress scores 8% higher on breakout score (sigma-weighted (5 targets at 0.5-3sigma of expected move), expiry P&L net of theta over 6-month hold).
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Fortress) | Free (Fortress) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460C / $640P / $530P × 3 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
$550C / $670P / $600P × 7 contracts Oct '26 (162d) |
|||
| Score | 0.5131 | 1.21 | -57.7% | free |
| Contracts | 3 | 7 | -57.1% | free |
| IC (capital) | $66,993 | $50,071 | +16,922 (+33.8%) | free |
| Max Loss | $99,993 | $99,071 | +922 (+0.9%) | free |
| Breakeven | $683.31 | $645.77 | +37.55 (+5.8%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-19 | $-154 | +135 (+87.8%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $53,036 | $166,996 | -113,961 (-68.2%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 79% | 334% | -76.3% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 162d | +791d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~67% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +791d runway. Wins: Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Call $460 × 3 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
Long Call $550 × 9 contracts Oct '26 (162d) |
|||
| Score | 0.4747 | 1.28 | -63.0% | free |
| Contracts | 3 | 9 | -66.7% | free |
| IC (capital) | $79,966 | $94,169 | -14,203 (-15.1%) | ANCHOR |
| Max Loss | $79,966 | $94,169 | -14,203 (-15.1%) | ANCHOR |
| Breakeven | $726.55 | $654.63 | +71.92 (+11.0%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-25 | $-219 | +194 (+88.8%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $40,063 | $184,918 | -144,855 (-78.3%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 50% | 196% | -74.5% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 162d | +791d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~72% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +791d runway. Wins: IC (capital), Max Loss, Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, Breakeven.
| sigma | Move | Price | Weight | Fortress 3ct | Pure 3ct | Stock 162sh | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5sigma | +13% | $695.55 | 15% | $+3,673 | $-9,300 | $+13,003 | (Stock) |
| 1sigma | +26% | $775.82 | 20% | $+27,752 | $+14,780 | $+26,006 | (Fort) |
| 1.5sigma | +39% | $856.08 | 30% | $+51,832 | $+38,859 | $+39,009 | (Fort) |
| 2sigma | +52% | $936.35 | 25% | $+75,911 | $+62,939 | $+52,011 | (Fort) |
| 3sigma | +78% | $1,096.88 | 10% | $+124,070 | $+111,097 | $+78,017 | (Fort) |
| Weighted average P&L | 100% | $+53,036 | $+40,063 | $+39,659 | (Fort) | ||
Each row is the at-expiry P&L if the stock lands at the target price. Score = (weighted-avg P&L) / (max-loss + theta-cost-over-hold) * time-fit. Read this table to override the score winner if your conviction favors a specific scenario row.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 3ct | Pure 3ct | Stock 162sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $584.53 | -$8,618 | -$7,603 | -$4,984 | |
| -10% | $553.76 | -$17,236 | -$15,207 | -$9,968 | |
| -15% | $523.00 | -$25,853 | -$22,810 | -$14,952 | |
| -20% | $492.23 | -$34,471 | -$30,414 | -$19,935 | |
| -30% | $430.70 | -$51,707 | -$45,621 | -$29,903 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 3ct Dec'28 | Pure 3ct Dec'28 | Stock 162sh | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $492 | $-90,324 | $-70,296 | $-19,935 | $-20,027 | (Stock) |
| +0% | $615 | $-27,819 | $-33,379 | $0 | $+5,560 | (Stock) |
| +25% | $769 | $+25,740 | $+12,768 | $+24,919 | $+12,973 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $923 | $+71,887 | $+58,915 | $+49,838 | $+12,973 | (Fort) |
| +75% | $1,077 | $+118,034 | $+105,061 | $+74,758 | $+12,973 | (Fort) |
| +100% | $1,231 | $+164,181 | $+151,208 | $+99,677 | $+12,973 | (Fort) |
| +200% | $1,846 | $+348,768 | $+335,795 | $+199,354 | $+12,973 | (Fort) |
| Weighted | — | $+53,036 | $+40,063 | $+39,659 | $+12,973 | (Fort) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Active directional view: targets at 0.5-3 sigma of expected move over the chosen horizon. 1.5-sigma carries the biggest weight (most likely breakout magnitude). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $1100C/$700P/$630P | 22 | +0.208/sh (+457) | $-54,723 | $1075.13 (+75%) | $-314/d | 1,777,904 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $1120C/$700P/$620P | 18 | +0.235/sh (+423) | $-44,304 | $1095.39 (+78%) | $-246/d | 1,614,755 | |
| Sep '27 (498d) | Fortress | $1120C/$700P/$630P | 17 | +0.239/sh (+407) | $-19,876 | $1108.31 (+80%) | $-199/d | 1,664,549 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $1200C/$700P/$630P | 16 | +0.229/sh (+366) | $-12,144 | $1192.41 (+94%) | $-170/d | 1,556,457 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $1170C/$700P/$630P | 15 | +0.246/sh (+370) | $-5,020 | $1166.65 (+90%) | $-160/d | 1,543,873 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $1210C/$690P/$620P | 13 | +0.261/sh (+339) | $8,464 | $1216.51 (+98%) | $-129/d | 1,404,081 | |
| Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $1160C/$700P/$630P | 10 | +0.314/sh (+314) | $29,707 | $1189.71 (+93%) | $-105/d | 1,232,364 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $1220C | 20 | +0.223/sh (+445) | $98,868 | $1269.43 (+106%) | $-104/d | 2,248,783 |
| ● | Now | Stock | 162 sh @ $615.29 | 162 | +1.000/sh (+162) | $99,677 | $615.29 (+0%) | $0/d | 292,435 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365), tail-weighted for 3-4x thesis. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $1160.0C | $56.09 | +0.246 |
| SP | SELL | $700.0P | $163.71 | +0.448 |
| HP | BUY | $630.0P | $137.33 | -0.381 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | +0.314/sh (+314) | $29,707 | $99,707 | $1189.71 (+93%) | $-105/d | 20.7x | 1,232,364 | +138% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1160C / $700P / $630P 10 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
$1220C 20 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
||
| Score | 1,232,364 | 2,248,783 | PURE (-45%) |
| Contracts | 10 | 20 | PURE (-50%) |
| IC (capital) | $29,707 | $98,868 | FORT (-70%) |
| Max Loss | $99,707 | $98,868 | PURE (+1%) |
| Breakeven | $1,189.71 | $1,269.43 | FORT (-6%) |
| Theta/day | $-105 | $-104 | PURE (+1%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 2567% | 1408% | FORT (+82%) |
Pure scores +45% — too wide a gap to justify the 3-leg fortress complexity. Buy the pure call.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Fortress) | Free (Fortress) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1160C / $700P / $630P × 10 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
$1100C / $700P / $630P × 22 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 1,232,364 | 1,777,904 | -30.7% | free |
| Contracts | 10 | 22 | -54.5% | free |
| IC (capital) | $29,707 | $-54,723 | +84,430 (+154.3%) | free |
| Max Loss | $99,707 | $99,277 | +430 | tie |
| Breakeven | $1,189.71 | $1,075.13 | +114.58 (+10.7%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-105 | $-314 | +210 (+66.7%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $762,674 | $1,910,782 | -1,148,108 (-60.1%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 2567% | 0% | +0.0% | tie |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~30% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Call $1220 × 20 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
Long Call $1140 × 156 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 2,248,783 | 11,717,632 | -80.8% | free |
| Contracts | 20 | 156 | -87.2% | free |
| IC (capital) | $98,868 | $99,754 | -886 (-0.9%) | ANCHOR |
| Max Loss | $98,868 | $99,754 | -886 (-0.9%) | ANCHOR |
| Breakeven | $1,269.43 | $1,146.39 | +123.04 (+10.7%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-104 | $-316 | +212 (+67.1%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $1,391,706 | $12,593,392 | -11,201,686 (-88.9%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 1408% | 12624% | -88.8% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~86% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: IC (capital), Max Loss, Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, Breakeven. ⚠ Free pick is a short-DTE lottery ticket (156 contracts in 316d). Score is inflated by contract count, not realistic to actually trade at this size.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 10ct | Pure 20ct | Stock 162sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $584.53 | -$9,645 | -$13,690 | -$4,984 | |
| -10% | $553.76 | -$19,289 | -$27,380 | -$9,968 | |
| -15% | $523.00 | -$28,934 | -$41,071 | -$14,952 | |
| -20% | $492.23 | -$38,579 | -$54,761 | -$19,935 | |
| -30% | $430.70 | -$57,868 | -$82,141 | -$29,903 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 10ct Dec'28 | Pure 20ct Dec'28 | Stock 162sh | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $492 | $-99,707 | $-98,868 | $-19,935 | $-839 | (Stock) |
| +0% | $615 | $-99,707 | $-98,868 | $0 | $-839 | (Stock) |
| +50% | $923 | $-29,707 | $-98,868 | $+49,838 | $+69,161 | (Stock) |
| +100% | $1,231 | $+40,873 | $-77,708 | $+99,677 | $+118,581 | (Stock) |
| +200% | $1,846 | $+656,163 | $+1,152,872 | $+199,354 | $-496,709 | (Pure) |
| +300% | $2,461 | $+1,271,453 | $+2,383,452 | $+299,031 | $-1,111,999 | (Pure) |
| +400% | $3,076 | $+1,886,743 | $+3,614,032 | $+398,708 | $-1,727,289 | (Pure) |
| +700% | $4,922 | $+3,732,613 | $+7,305,772 | $+697,739 | $-3,573,159 | (Pure) |
| +1000% | $6,768 | $+5,578,483 | $+10,997,512 | $+996,770 | $-5,419,029 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+762,674 | $+1,391,706 | $+208,214 | $-629,032 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. 3-4x thesis: huge moves matter most. +200% (3x) and +300% (4x) get the biggest weights. +400% counted as tail; +700% / +1000% rows shown above are eye candy and don't count. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $245C/$300P/$260P | 12 | +0.511/sh (+613) | $50,895 | $293.71 (+7%) | $-114/d | 130,387 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $240C/$285P/$250P | 11 | +0.838/sh (+921) | $61,300 | $295.73 (+7%) | $-81/d | 128,006 | |
| Jul '27 (435d) | Fortress | $240C/$300P/$265P | 11 | +0.830/sh (+913) | $61,242 | $297.84 (+8%) | $-113/d | 130,310 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $240C/$275P/$245P | 10 | +0.797/sh (+797) | $69,232 | $309.23 (+12%) | $-57/d | 125,058 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $240C/$300P/$270P | 10 | +0.792/sh (+792) | $69,839 | $309.84 (+12%) | $-95/d | 123,909 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $240C/$270P/$240P | 9 | +0.786/sh (+707) | $71,440 | $319.38 (+16%) | $-51/d | 115,501 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $240C/$280P/$240P | 8 | +0.803/sh (+642) | $66,558 | $323.20 (+17%) | $-44/d | 107,390 |
| ▲ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $240C | 10 | +0.713/sh (+713) | $97,692 | $337.69 (+23%) | $-65/d | 117,127 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $240.0C | $97.69 | +0.713 |
| SP | SELL | $280.0P | $49.83 | +0.376 |
| HP | BUY | $240.0P | $35.33 | -0.287 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | +0.803/sh (+642) | $66,558 | $98,558 | $323.20 (+17%) | $-44/d | 3.3x | 107,390 | +274% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| $240C / $280P / $240P 8 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
$240C 10 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
||
| Score | 107,390 | 117,127 | PURE (-8%) |
| Contracts | 8 | 10 | PURE (-20%) |
| IC (capital) | $66,558 | $97,692 | FORT (-32%) |
| Max Loss | $98,558 | $97,692 | PURE (+1%) |
| Breakeven | $323.20 | $337.69 | FORT (-4%) |
| Theta/day | $-44 | $-65 | FORT (-33%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 100% | 74% | FORT (+35%) |
Score gap is small (8%). Fortress wins 4/4 efficiency dims. Build the fortress for capital efficiency.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Fortress) | Free (Fortress) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $240C / $280P / $240P × 8 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
$245C / $300P / $260P × 12 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 107,390 | 130,387 | -17.6% | free |
| Contracts | 8 | 12 | -33.3% | free |
| IC (capital) | $66,558 | $50,895 | +15,663 (+30.8%) | free |
| Max Loss | $98,558 | $98,895 | -337 | tie |
| Breakeven | $323.20 | $293.71 | +29.49 (+10.0%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-44 | $-114 | +70 (+61.3%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $66,460 | $140,132 | -73,672 (-52.6%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 100% | 275% | -63.7% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~45% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Call $240 × 10 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
Long Call $245 × 16 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 117,127 | 157,567 | -25.7% | free |
| Contracts | 10 | 16 | -37.5% | free |
| IC (capital) | $97,692 | $95,609 | +2,083 (+2.2%) | free |
| Max Loss | $97,692 | $95,609 | +2,083 (+2.2%) | free |
| Breakeven | $337.69 | $304.76 | +32.93 (+10.8%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-65 | $-149 | +83 (+56.0%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $72,486 | $169,343 | -96,857 (-57.2%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 74% | 177% | -58.1% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~47% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 8ct | Pure 10ct | Stock 363sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $261.65 | -$8,843 | -$9,823 | -$4,999 | |
| -10% | $247.88 | -$17,686 | -$19,646 | -$9,998 | |
| -15% | $234.11 | -$26,530 | -$29,469 | -$14,997 | |
| -20% | $220.34 | -$35,373 | -$39,291 | -$19,995 | |
| -30% | $192.79 | -$53,059 | -$58,937 | -$29,993 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 8ct Dec'28 | Pure 10ct Dec'28 | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $220 | $-98,558 | $-97,692 | $-866 | (Pure) |
| +0% | $275 | $-41,886 | $-62,272 | $+20,386 | (Fort) |
| +25% | $344 | $+16,862 | $+6,583 | $+10,279 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $413 | $+71,946 | $+75,438 | $-3,492 | (Pure) |
| +75% | $482 | $+127,030 | $+144,293 | $-17,263 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $551 | $+182,114 | $+213,148 | $-31,034 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $826 | $+402,450 | $+488,568 | $-86,118 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+66,460 | $+72,486 | $-6,026 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Stock replacement view: small moves matter most. +25% gets the biggest weight, then +50% / +75%. -20% and flat both count (they hurt the score). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $390C/$310P/$280P | 39 | +0.075/sh (+293) | $-18,478 | $385.26 (+40%) | $-130/d | 515,322 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $400C/$315P/$285P | 35 | +0.342/sh (+1,197) | $-5,024 | $398.56 (+45%) | $-246/d | 481,253 | |
| Jul '27 (435d) | Fortress | $380C/$315P/$285P | 30 | +1.269/sh (+3,806) | $9,141 | $383.05 (+39%) | $-101/d | 466,885 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $370C/$315P/$285P | 22 | +0.448/sh (+984) | $32,986 | $384.99 (+40%) | $-168/d | 388,307 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $380C/$310P/$280P | 22 | +0.435/sh (+958) | $32,824 | $394.92 (+43%) | $-158/d | 375,918 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $375C/$310P/$280P | 18 | +0.472/sh (+850) | $44,886 | $399.94 (+45%) | $-128/d | 326,579 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $330C/$310P/$280P | 13 | -0.260/sh (-338) | $60,860 | $376.82 (+37%) | $-102/d | 297,540 |
| ▲ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $360C | 20 | +0.461/sh (+923) | $98,805 | $409.40 (+49%) | $-104/d | 372,836 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $330.0C | $58.14 | +0.567 |
| SP | SELL | $310.0P | $66.40 | -0.451 |
| HP | BUY | $280.0P | $55.07 | -0.376 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | -0.260/sh (-338) | $60,860 | $99,860 | $376.82 (+37%) | $-102/d | 5.9x | 297,540 | +372% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| $330C / $310P / $280P 13 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
$360C 20 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
||
| Score | 297,540 | 372,836 | PURE (-20%) |
| Contracts | 13 | 20 | PURE (-35%) |
| IC (capital) | $60,860 | $98,805 | FORT (-38%) |
| Max Loss | $99,860 | $98,805 | PURE (+1%) |
| Breakeven | $376.82 | $409.40 | FORT (-8%) |
| Theta/day | $-102 | $-104 | FORT (-2%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 303% | 234% | FORT (+30%) |
Pure scores +20% on raw P&L from extra contracts. Fortress wins 4/4 efficiency dims (IC, BE, theta, ROIC). Trade 20% score for capital efficiency.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Fortress) | Free (Fortress) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $330C / $310P / $280P × 13 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
$390C / $310P / $280P × 39 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 297,540 | 515,322 | -42.3% | free |
| Contracts | 13 | 39 | -66.7% | free |
| IC (capital) | $60,860 | $-18,478 | +79,338 (+429.4%) | free |
| Max Loss | $99,860 | $98,522 | +1,338 (+1.4%) | free |
| Breakeven | $376.82 | $385.26 | -8.45 (-2.2%) | ANCHOR |
| Theta/day | $-102 | $-130 | +28 (+21.5%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $184,139 | $553,836 | -369,697 (-66.8%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 303% | 0% | +0.0% | tie |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~36% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: Breakeven, Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Call $360 × 20 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
Long Call $410 × 147 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 372,836 | 1,591,160 | -76.6% | free |
| Contracts | 20 | 147 | -86.4% | free |
| IC (capital) | $98,805 | $99,556 | -751 (-0.8%) | ANCHOR |
| Max Loss | $98,805 | $99,556 | -751 (-0.8%) | ANCHOR |
| Breakeven | $409.40 | $416.77 | -7.37 (-1.8%) | ANCHOR |
| Theta/day | $-104 | $-315 | +211 (+67.1%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $230,738 | $1,710,082 | -1,479,344 (-86.5%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 234% | 1718% | -86.4% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~83% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: IC (capital), Max Loss, Breakeven. Loses: Score, Contracts, Weighted P&L. ⚠ Free pick is a short-DTE lottery ticket (147 contracts in 316d). Score is inflated by contract count, not realistic to actually trade at this size.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 13ct | Pure 20ct | Stock 363sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $261.65 | -$4,659 | -$12,705 | -$4,999 | |
| -10% | $247.88 | -$9,319 | -$25,410 | -$9,998 | |
| -15% | $234.11 | -$13,978 | -$38,115 | -$14,997 | |
| -20% | $220.34 | -$18,637 | -$50,820 | -$19,995 | |
| -30% | $192.79 | -$27,956 | -$76,231 | -$29,993 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 13ct Dec'28 | Pure 20ct Dec'28 | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $220 | $-99,860 | $-98,805 | $-1,055 | (Pure) |
| +0% | $275 | $-99,860 | $-98,805 | $-1,055 | (Pure) |
| +25% | $344 | $-42,303 | $-98,805 | $+56,502 | (Fort) |
| +50% | $413 | $+47,209 | $+7,455 | $+39,754 | (Fort) |
| +75% | $482 | $+136,720 | $+145,165 | $-8,445 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $551 | $+226,232 | $+282,875 | $-56,643 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $826 | $+584,278 | $+833,715 | $-249,437 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+184,139 | $+230,738 | $-46,599 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Convexity view: bigger moves matter most. +75% and +100% get the biggest weights. Tail at +200% counted; downside lightly weighted. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '26 (71d) | Fortress | $255C/$300P/$265P | 21 | +0.999/sh (+2,099) | $25,277 | $283.52 (+3%) | $-479/d | 0.7414 | |
| Aug '26 (106d) | Fortress | $255C/$295P/$265P | 19 | +0.922/sh (+1,752) | $41,152 | $285.83 (+4%) | $-301/d | 0.9396 | |
| Sep '26 (134d) | Fortress | $250C/$295P/$265P | 17 | +0.893/sh (+1,519) | $47,912 | $286.59 (+4%) | $-283/d | 0.9957 | |
| Oct '26 (162d) | Fortress | $245C/$300P/$265P | 15 | +0.921/sh (+1,381) | $47,128 | $288.21 (+5%) | $-237/d | 1.07 | |
| ◆ | Nov '26 (197d) | Fortress | $245C/$295P/$260P | 14 | +1.595/sh (+2,232) | $50,475 | $288.03 (+5%) | $-120/d | 1.21 |
| Dec '26 (225d) | Fortress | $245C/$290P/$260P | 14 | +0.855/sh (+1,197) | $57,497 | $288.03 (+5%) | $-157/d | 1.09 | |
| Jan '27 (253d) | Fortress | $245C/$275P/$245P | 13 | +0.842/sh (+1,094) | $58,194 | $289.76 (+5%) | $-74/d | 1.13 | |
| Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $245C/$300P/$265P | 12 | +0.534/sh (+641) | $53,491 | $294.79 (+7%) | $-115/d | 0.9954 | |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $240C/$285P/$250P | 11 | +0.838/sh (+921) | $61,300 | $295.73 (+7%) | $-81/d | 0.8672 | |
| Jul '27 (435d) | Fortress | $240C/$300P/$270P | 11 | +1.580/sh (+1,738) | $63,957 | $299.07 (+9%) | $-69/d | 0.8820 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $240C/$275P/$245P | 10 | +0.797/sh (+797) | $69,232 | $309.23 (+12%) | $-57/d | 0.6997 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $240C/$300P/$270P | 10 | +0.792/sh (+792) | $69,839 | $309.84 (+12%) | $-95/d | 0.6508 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $240C/$270P/$240P | 9 | +0.786/sh (+707) | $71,440 | $319.38 (+16%) | $-51/d | 0.5559 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $240C/$280P/$240P | 8 | +0.803/sh (+642) | $66,558 | $323.20 (+17%) | $-44/d | 0.4711 |
| ▲ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $240C | 10 | +0.713/sh (+713) | $97,692 | $337.69 (+23%) | $-65/d | 0.4404 |
| ● | Now | Stock | 363 sh @ $275.42 | 363 | +1.000/sh (+363) | $99,977 | $275.42 (+0%) | $0/d | 0.4011 |
★ = top breakout score across Fortress, Pure, Stock. ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Read in light of Score Breakdown + Stop Profile. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $240.0C | $97.69 | +0.713 |
| SP | SELL | $280.0P | $49.83 | +0.376 |
| HP | BUY | $240.0P | $35.33 | -0.287 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | +0.803/sh (+642) | $66,558 | $98,558 | $323.20 (+17%) | $-44/d | 3.3x | 0.4711 | +274% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| $240C / $280P / $240P 8 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
$240C 10 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
||
| Score | 0.4711 | 0.4404 | FORT (+7%) |
| Contracts | 8 | 10 | PURE (-20%) |
| IC (capital) | $66,558 | $97,692 | FORT (-32%) |
| Max Loss | $98,558 | $97,692 | PURE (+1%) |
| Breakeven | $323.20 | $337.69 | FORT (-4%) |
| Theta/day | $-44 | $-65 | FORT (-33%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 75% | 49% | FORT (+53%) |
Fortress scores 7% higher on breakout score (sigma-weighted (5 targets at 0.5-3sigma of expected move), expiry P&L net of theta over 6-month hold).
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Fortress) | Free (Fortress) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $240C / $280P / $240P × 8 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
$245C / $295P / $260P × 14 contracts Nov '26 (197d) |
|||
| Score | 0.4711 | 1.21 | -61.1% | free |
| Contracts | 8 | 14 | -42.9% | free |
| IC (capital) | $66,558 | $50,475 | +16,083 (+31.9%) | free |
| Max Loss | $98,558 | $99,475 | -917 (-0.9%) | ANCHOR |
| Breakeven | $323.20 | $288.03 | +35.17 (+12.2%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-44 | $-120 | +76 (+63.5%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $50,155 | $146,772 | -96,617 (-65.8%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 75% | 291% | -74.1% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 197d | +756d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~67% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +756d runway. Wins: Max Loss, Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Call $240 × 10 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
Long Call $245 × 19 contracts Nov '26 (197d) |
|||
| Score | 0.4404 | 1.29 | -65.8% | free |
| Contracts | 10 | 19 | -47.4% | free |
| IC (capital) | $97,692 | $96,957 | +735 (+0.8%) | free |
| Max Loss | $97,692 | $96,957 | +735 (+0.8%) | free |
| Breakeven | $337.69 | $296.03 | +41.66 (+14.1%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-65 | $-199 | +133 (+67.1%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $48,199 | $170,735 | -122,536 (-71.8%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 49% | 176% | -72.0% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 197d | +756d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~70% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +756d runway. Wins: Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| sigma | Move | Price | Weight | Fortress 8ct | Pure 10ct | Stock 363sh | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5sigma | +13% | $311.64 | 15% | $-9,246 | $-26,052 | $+13,148 | (Stock) |
| 1sigma | +26% | $347.86 | 20% | $+19,730 | $+10,168 | $+26,296 | (Stock) |
| 1.5sigma | +39% | $384.08 | 30% | $+48,706 | $+46,388 | $+39,443 | (Fort) |
| 2sigma | +53% | $420.30 | 25% | $+77,682 | $+82,607 | $+52,591 | (Pure) |
| 3sigma | +79% | $492.74 | 10% | $+135,634 | $+155,047 | $+78,887 | (Pure) |
| Weighted average P&L | 100% | $+50,155 | $+48,199 | $+40,101 | (Fort) | ||
Each row is the at-expiry P&L if the stock lands at the target price. Score = (weighted-avg P&L) / (max-loss + theta-cost-over-hold) * time-fit. Read this table to override the score winner if your conviction favors a specific scenario row.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 8ct | Pure 10ct | Stock 363sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $261.65 | -$8,843 | -$9,823 | -$4,999 | |
| -10% | $247.88 | -$17,686 | -$19,646 | -$9,998 | |
| -15% | $234.11 | -$26,530 | -$29,469 | -$14,997 | |
| -20% | $220.34 | -$35,373 | -$39,291 | -$19,995 | |
| -30% | $192.79 | -$53,059 | -$58,937 | -$29,993 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 8ct Dec'28 | Pure 10ct Dec'28 | Stock 363sh | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $220 | $-98,558 | $-97,692 | $-19,995 | $-866 | (Stock) |
| +0% | $275 | $-41,886 | $-62,272 | $0 | $+20,386 | (Stock) |
| +25% | $344 | $+16,862 | $+6,583 | $+24,994 | $+10,279 | (Stock) |
| +50% | $413 | $+71,946 | $+75,438 | $+49,989 | $-3,492 | (Pure) |
| +75% | $482 | $+127,030 | $+144,293 | $+74,983 | $-17,263 | (Pure) |
| +100% | $551 | $+182,114 | $+213,148 | $+99,977 | $-31,034 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $826 | $+402,450 | $+488,568 | $+199,955 | $-86,118 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+50,155 | $+48,199 | $+40,101 | $+1,956 | (Fort) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Active directional view: targets at 0.5-3 sigma of expected move over the chosen horizon. 1.5-sigma carries the biggest weight (most likely breakout magnitude). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
| Chain | Type | Structure | Ct | Delta | IC | BE | Theta | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◆ | Mar '27 (316d) | Fortress | $410C/$310P/$280P | 43 | +0.039/sh (+166) | $-29,765 | $403.08 (+46%) | $-114/d | 1,821,775 |
| Jun '27 (406d) | Fortress | $410C/$315P/$285P | 36 | +0.324/sh (+1,167) | $-9,250 | $407.43 (+48%) | $-243/d | 1,712,289 | |
| Jul '27 (435d) | Fortress | $410C/$315P/$285P | 35 | +1.212/sh (+4,240) | $-5,212 | $408.51 (+48%) | $-82/d | 1,719,026 | |
| Dec '27 (589d) | Fortress | $410C/$315P/$285P | 26 | +0.372/sh (+968) | $18,918 | $417.28 (+52%) | $-165/d | 1,456,989 | |
| Jan '28 (624d) | Fortress | $410C/$310P/$280P | 25 | +0.381/sh (+953) | $22,915 | $419.17 (+52%) | $-157/d | 1,435,796 | |
| Jun '28 (771d) | Fortress | $400C/$310P/$280P | 20 | +0.428/sh (+855) | $38,407 | $419.20 (+52%) | $-128/d | 1,274,937 | |
| Dec '28 (953d) | Fortress | $400C/$310P/$280P | 17 | -0.433/sh (-737) | $47,903 | $428.18 (+55%) | $-128/d | 1,180,180 | |
| ★ | Dec '28 (953d) | Pure | $410C | 26 | +0.378/sh (+983) | $97,679 | $447.57 (+63%) | $-102/d | 1,733,571 |
| ● | Now | Stock | 363 sh @ $275.42 | 363 | +1.000/sh (+363) | $99,977 | $275.42 (+0%) | $0/d | 293,317 |
★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365), tail-weighted for 3-4x thesis. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).
| Leg | Action | Strike | Price | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | BUY | $400.0C | $39.50 | +0.394 |
| SP | SELL | $310.0P | $66.40 | -0.451 |
| HP | BUY | $280.0P | $55.07 | -0.376 |
| Ct | Delta | IC | ML | BE | Theta | Lev | Score | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | -0.433/sh (-737) | $47,903 | $98,903 | $428.18 (+55%) | $-128/d | 9.8x | 1,180,180 | +435% |
| Dimension | Fortress | Pure | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| $400C / $310P / $280P 17 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
$410C 26 contracts · Dec '28 (953d) |
||
| Score | 1,180,180 | 1,733,571 | PURE (-32%) |
| Contracts | 17 | 26 | PURE (-35%) |
| IC (capital) | $47,903 | $97,679 | FORT (-51%) |
| Max Loss | $98,903 | $97,679 | PURE (+1%) |
| Breakeven | $428.18 | $447.57 | FORT (-4%) |
| Theta/day | $-128 | $-102 | PURE (+25%) |
| ROIC (weighted) | 1525% | 1098% | FORT (+39%) |
Pure scores +32% — too wide a gap to justify the 3-leg fortress complexity. Buy the pure call.
What you trade by anchoring to Dec '28 (953d) instead of letting the score pick freely across all chains. ANCHOR wins each dimension where the anchored pick is better; free wins where the cross-chain best is better. The DTE row shows how much extra runway anchoring buys you.
| Dimension | Anchored (Fortress) | Free (Fortress) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400C / $310P / $280P × 17 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
$410C / $310P / $280P × 43 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 1,180,180 | 1,821,775 | -35.2% | free |
| Contracts | 17 | 43 | -60.5% | free |
| IC (capital) | $47,903 | $-29,765 | +77,667 (+260.9%) | free |
| Max Loss | $98,903 | $99,235 | -333 | tie |
| Breakeven | $428.18 | $403.08 | +25.10 (+6.2%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-128 | $-114 | -14 (-12.7%) | free |
| Weighted P&L | $730,379 | $1,957,932 | -1,227,553 (-62.7%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 1525% | 0% | +0.0% | tie |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~33% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Loses: Score, Contracts, IC (capital).
| Dimension | Anchored (Pure) | Free (Pure) | Δ | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Call $410 × 26 contracts Dec '28 (953d) |
Long Call $410 × 147 contracts Mar '27 (316d) |
|||
| Score | 1,733,571 | 6,065,169 | -71.4% | free |
| Contracts | 26 | 147 | -82.3% | free |
| IC (capital) | $97,679 | $99,556 | -1,876 (-1.9%) | ANCHOR |
| Max Loss | $97,679 | $99,556 | -1,876 (-1.9%) | ANCHOR |
| Breakeven | $447.57 | $416.77 | +30.80 (+7.4%) | free |
| Theta/day | $-102 | $-315 | +213 (+67.5%) | ANCHOR |
| Weighted P&L | $1,072,856 | $6,518,472 | -5,445,616 (-83.5%) | free |
| ROIC (weighted) | 1098% | 6548% | -83.2% | free |
| DTE | 953d | 316d | +637d | ANCHOR |
Anchor expensive (~79% on score/P&L/ROIC). Anchor gives +637d runway. Wins: IC (capital), Max Loss, Theta/day. Loses: Score, Contracts, Breakeven. ⚠ Free pick is a short-DTE lottery ticket (147 contracts in 316d). Score is inflated by contract count, not realistic to actually trade at this size.
| Stop | Stock at | Fortress 17ct | Pure 26ct | Stock 363sh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | $261.65 | -$10,146 | -$13,541 | -$4,999 | |
| -10% | $247.88 | -$20,291 | -$27,083 | -$9,998 | |
| -15% | $234.11 | -$30,437 | -$40,624 | -$14,997 | |
| -20% | $220.34 | -$40,582 | -$54,165 | -$19,995 | |
| -30% | $192.79 | -$60,873 | -$81,248 | -$29,993 |
Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.
| Move | Price | Fortress 17ct Dec'28 | Pure 26ct Dec'28 | Stock 363sh | F-P Diff | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | $220 | $-98,903 | $-97,679 | $-19,995 | $-1,223 | (Stock) |
| +0% | $275 | $-98,903 | $-97,679 | $0 | $-1,223 | (Stock) |
| +50% | $413 | $-25,582 | $-89,541 | $+49,989 | $+63,960 | (Stock) |
| +100% | $551 | $+208,525 | $+268,505 | $+99,977 | $-59,979 | (Pure) |
| +200% | $826 | $+676,739 | $+984,597 | $+199,955 | $-307,857 | (Pure) |
| +300% | $1,102 | $+1,144,953 | $+1,700,689 | $+299,932 | $-555,735 | (Pure) |
| +400% | $1,377 | $+1,613,167 | $+2,416,781 | $+399,910 | $-803,613 | (Pure) |
| +700% | $2,203 | $+3,017,809 | $+4,565,057 | $+699,842 | $-1,547,247 | (Pure) |
| +1000% | $3,030 | $+4,422,451 | $+6,713,333 | $+999,775 | $-2,290,881 | (Pure) |
| Weighted | — | $+730,379 | $+1,072,856 | $+208,842 | $-342,477 | (Pure) |
How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. 3-4x thesis: huge moves matter most. +200% (3x) and +300% (4x) get the biggest weights. +400% counted as tail; +700% / +1000% rows shown above are eye candy and don't count. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.
No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.