LEAPS Builder --all v6.0

TSLA | 2026-06-05 00:52:40
All three modes (NORMAL + BREAKOUT + YOLO) on one page. Master Verdict summarizes; expand the per-mode sections below for full dashboards.

Master Verdict (--all)

Ticker Use Case Mode Best Pick Score Breakeven Lev Theta/day Verdict
TSLA Stock replacement (1-2yr) NORMAL $380C/$460P/$400P × 4ct
Mar '27		 60,863 $452.23 (+8%) 6.5x $-54/d FORTRESS_PREFERRED
TSLA Moderate-bull (1-2yr) NORMAL $600C/$480P/$430P × 10ct
Mar '27		 180,805 $600.00 (+43%) 8.4x $-129/d PURE_PREFERRED
TSLA Active 6mo+ directional BREAKOUT $370C/$460P/$385P × 4ct
Dec '26		 1.6375 $439.23 (+5%) 8.7x $-31/d FORTRESS_PREFERRED
TSLA 3-4x thesis (2yr) YOLO $790C/$480P/$430P × 15ct
Mar '27		 742,040 $773.25 (+84%) 12.6x $-139/d PURE_PREFERRED

Score scales differ by mode: NORMAL/YOLO use WSPL (large integer, mode-specific weights); BREAKOUT uses sigma-weighted reward/risk (decimal). Don't compare scores across modes — compare WITHIN each row's column. Click any row to expand its full dashboard panel below.

TSLA — All Modes

NORMAL — Stock replacement (Bucket A, deep ITM)

TSLA @ $419.60

Sizing: $50,000 (ITM + OTM) | Chains: Mar 2027 (287d), Jun 2027 (377d), Sep 2027 (469d), Dec 2027 (560d), Jan 2028 (595d), Jun 2028 (742d), Dec 2028 (924d)
NORMAL MODE — Bucket A (Deep ITM, LC 40-95% of stock, delta ≥ 0.70) for synthetic stock replacement; Bucket B (OTM/ATM, LC 90-200%) for max leverage / convexity. Score = WSPL × √(DTE/365); Bucket A weights peak at +25-75% (moderate-bull view), Bucket B peaks at +75-100% (convexity payoff). Designed for hold-to-expiry LEAPS positions.

Bucket A: Deep ITM Stock Replacement ($50,000 ML budget)

All Candidates

ChainTypeStructureCtDeltaICBEThetaScore
★Mar '27 (287d) ↳Fortress$380C/$460P/$400P4+0.570/sh (+228)$25,780$452.23 (+8%)$-54/d60,863
▲Mar '27 (287d) ↳Pure$380C5+0.701/sh (+350)$49,125$478.25 (+14%)$-69/d65,549
Jun '27 (377d) ↳Fortress$350C/$460P/$380P3+0.609/sh (+183)$25,125$446.88 (+7%)$-34/d54,309
Sep '27 (469d) ↳Fortress$370C/$460P/$380P3+0.596/sh (+179)$25,440$457.40 (+9%)$-32/d53,983
Dec '27 (560d) ↳Fortress$370C/$440P/$380P3+0.645/sh (+194)$31,800$476.00 (+13%)$-29/d52,658
Jan '28 (595d) ↳Fortress$380C/$420P/$360P3+0.638/sh (+191)$31,815$486.05 (+16%)$-29/d51,706
Jun '28 (742d) ↳Fortress$300C/$450P/$330P2+1.486/sh (+297)$25,930$439.82 (+5%)$-1/d51,164
Dec '28 (924d) ↳Fortress$300C/$460P/$360P2+0.717/sh (+143)$29,990$454.98 (+8%)$-13/d50,617

★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).

Compare Across Chains (click any chain to see this-chain-pick vs default ★ winner)

★ (default winner)Mar '27 (287d) — This IS the default ★ pick: Fortress 4ct $380C/$460P/$400P
This panel represents the current ★ default pick — the same structure shown in the Best Fortress card and Verdict above. Use other chain panels to see how alternates compare.
Jun '27 (377d) Fortress 3ct $350C/$460P/$380P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Fortress 4ct $380C/$460P/$400P
Dimension THIS: Jun '27 Fortress 3ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Fortress 4ct Better
Score54,30960,863DEFAULT ★ (-11%)
Contracts34DEFAULT ★ (-25%)
IC (capital)$25,125$25,780THIS (-3%)
Max Loss$49,125$49,780THIS (-1%)
Breakeven$446.88$452.23THIS (-1%)
Theta/day$-34$-54THIS (+38%)
Weighted P&L$53,438$68,637DEFAULT ★ (-22%)
ROIC (weighted)213%266%DEFAULT ★ (-20%)
DTE377287THIS (+31%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+53,438  |  DEFAULT ★ $+68,637  |  diff $-15,199   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+15,199 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 5, DEFAULT wins 4. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Sep '27 (469d) Fortress 3ct $370C/$460P/$380P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Fortress 4ct $380C/$460P/$400P
Dimension THIS: Sep '27 Fortress 3ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Fortress 4ct Better
Score53,98360,863DEFAULT ★ (-11%)
Contracts34DEFAULT ★ (-25%)
IC (capital)$25,440$25,780THIS (-1%)
Max Loss$49,440$49,780THIS (-1%)
Breakeven$457.40$452.23DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Theta/day$-32$-54THIS (+41%)
Weighted P&L$47,623$68,637DEFAULT ★ (-31%)
ROIC (weighted)187%266%DEFAULT ★ (-30%)
DTE469287THIS (+63%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+47,623  |  DEFAULT ★ $+68,637  |  diff $-21,014   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+21,014 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 4, DEFAULT wins 5. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Dec '27 (560d) Fortress 3ct $370C/$440P/$380P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Fortress 4ct $380C/$460P/$400P
Dimension THIS: Dec '27 Fortress 3ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Fortress 4ct Better
Score52,65860,863DEFAULT ★ (-13%)
Contracts34DEFAULT ★ (-25%)
IC (capital)$31,800$25,780DEFAULT ★ (+23%)
Max Loss$49,800$49,780tie
Breakeven$476.00$452.23DEFAULT ★ (+5%)
Theta/day$-29$-54THIS (+46%)
Weighted P&L$42,513$68,637DEFAULT ★ (-38%)
ROIC (weighted)134%266%DEFAULT ★ (-50%)
DTE560287THIS (+95%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+42,513  |  DEFAULT ★ $+68,637  |  diff $-26,124   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+26,124 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 6. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Jan '28 (595d) Fortress 3ct $380C/$420P/$360P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Fortress 4ct $380C/$460P/$400P
Dimension THIS: Jan '28 Fortress 3ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Fortress 4ct Better
Score51,70660,863DEFAULT ★ (-15%)
Contracts34DEFAULT ★ (-25%)
IC (capital)$31,815$25,780DEFAULT ★ (+23%)
Max Loss$49,815$49,780tie
Breakeven$486.05$452.23DEFAULT ★ (+7%)
Theta/day$-29$-54THIS (+47%)
Weighted P&L$40,498$68,637DEFAULT ★ (-41%)
ROIC (weighted)127%266%DEFAULT ★ (-52%)
DTE595287THIS (+107%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+40,498  |  DEFAULT ★ $+68,637  |  diff $-28,139   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+28,139 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 6. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Jun '28 (742d) Fortress 2ct $300C/$450P/$330P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Fortress 4ct $380C/$460P/$400P
Dimension THIS: Jun '28 Fortress 2ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Fortress 4ct Better
Score51,16460,863DEFAULT ★ (-16%)
Contracts24DEFAULT ★ (-50%)
IC (capital)$25,930$25,780DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Max Loss$49,930$49,780tie
Breakeven$439.82$452.23THIS (-3%)
Theta/day$-1$-54THIS (+98%)
Weighted P&L$35,884$68,637DEFAULT ★ (-48%)
ROIC (weighted)138%266%DEFAULT ★ (-48%)
DTE742287THIS (+159%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+35,884  |  DEFAULT ★ $+68,637  |  diff $-32,753   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+32,753 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 3, DEFAULT wins 5. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Dec '28 (924d) Fortress 2ct $300C/$460P/$360P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Fortress 4ct $380C/$460P/$400P
Dimension THIS: Dec '28 Fortress 2ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Fortress 4ct Better
Score50,61760,863DEFAULT ★ (-17%)
Contracts24DEFAULT ★ (-50%)
IC (capital)$29,990$25,780DEFAULT ★ (+16%)
Max Loss$49,990$49,780tie
Breakeven$454.98$452.23DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Theta/day$-13$-54THIS (+76%)
Weighted P&L$31,813$68,637DEFAULT ★ (-54%)
ROIC (weighted)106%266%DEFAULT ★ (-60%)
DTE924287THIS (+222%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+31,813  |  DEFAULT ★ $+68,637  |  diff $-36,824   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+36,824 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 6. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Best Fortress: $380C / $460P / $400P (Mar '27, 287d)

LegActionStrikePriceDelta
LCBUY$380.0C$98.25+0.701
SPSELL$460.0P$90.00-0.486
HPBUY$400.0P$56.20+0.355
CtDeltaICMLBEThetaLevScoreROIC
4 +0.570/sh (+228) $25,780$49,780 $452.23 (+8%)$-54/d 6.5x60,863+612%

Verdict: FORTRESS PREFERRED

Dimension Fortress Pure Winner
$380C / $460P / $400P
4 contracts · Mar '27 (287d)		 $380C
5 contracts · Mar '27 (287d)
Score60,86365,549PURE (-7%)
Contracts45PURE (-20%)
IC (capital)$25,780$49,125FORT (-48%)
Max Loss$49,780$49,125PURE (+1%)
Breakeven$452.23$478.25FORT (-5%)
Theta/day$-54$-69FORT (-21%)
ROIC (weighted)266%150%FORT (+77%)

Score gap is small (7%). Fortress wins 4/4 efficiency dims. Build the fortress for capital efficiency.

Stop Profile (MTM loss if stop hits)

StopStock at Fortress 4ctPure 5ctStock 119sh
-5%$398.62-$4,782-$7,351-$2,497
-10%$377.64-$9,563-$14,703-$4,993
-15%$356.66-$14,345-$22,054-$7,490
-20%$335.68-$19,127-$29,405-$9,986
-30%$293.72-$28,690-$44,108-$14,980

Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.

P&L Comparison

MovePriceFortress 4ct Mar'27Pure 5ct Mar'27F-P DiffWinner
-19%$336$-49,780$-49,125$-655(Pure)
+0%$420$-26,104$-29,327$+3,224(Fort)
+25%$524$+32,018$+23,122$+8,896(Fort)
+50%$629$+73,977$+75,571$-1,594(Pure)
+75%$734$+115,936$+128,021$-12,084(Pure)
+100%$839$+157,896$+180,470$-22,574(Pure)
+200%$1,259$+325,734$+390,268$-64,534(Pure)
Weighted—$+68,637$+73,921$-5,285(Pure)

How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Stock replacement view: small moves matter most. +25% gets the biggest weight, then +50% / +75%. -20% and flat both count (they hurt the score). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.

CC Overlay

No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.

NORMAL — Moderate-bull (Bucket B, OTM/ATM)

TSLA @ $419.60

Sizing: $50,000 (ITM + OTM) | Chains: Mar 2027 (287d), Jun 2027 (377d), Sep 2027 (469d), Dec 2027 (560d), Jan 2028 (595d), Jun 2028 (742d), Dec 2028 (924d)
NORMAL MODE — Bucket A (Deep ITM, LC 40-95% of stock, delta ≥ 0.70) for synthetic stock replacement; Bucket B (OTM/ATM, LC 90-200%) for max leverage / convexity. Score = WSPL × √(DTE/365); Bucket A weights peak at +25-75% (moderate-bull view), Bucket B peaks at +75-100% (convexity payoff). Designed for hold-to-expiry LEAPS positions.

Bucket B: OTM Max Leverage ($50,000 ML budget)

All Candidates

ChainTypeStructureCtDeltaICBEThetaScore
◆Mar '27 (287d) ↳Fortress$600C/$480P/$430P10+0.207/sh (+207)$-0$600.00 (+43%)$-129/d180,805
★Mar '27 (287d) ↳Pure$680C23+0.233/sh (+535)$49,450$701.50 (+67%)$-252/d261,737
Jun '27 (377d) ↳Fortress$600C/$480P/$430P8+0.148/sh (+118)$9,880$612.35 (+46%)$-92/d155,739
Sep '27 (469d) ↳Fortress$560C/$480P/$430P6+0.372/sh (+223)$19,710$592.85 (+41%)$-71/d139,007
Dec '27 (560d) ↳Fortress$530C/$480P/$430P5+0.330/sh (+165)$24,975$579.95 (+38%)$-71/d131,472
Jan '28 (595d) ↳Fortress$460C/$480P/$430P4+1.493/sh (+597)$29,560$533.90 (+27%)$-22/d128,719
Jun '28 (742d) ↳Fortress$400C/$480P/$430P3+1.548/sh (+464)$33,990$513.30 (+22%)$-13/d114,829
Dec '28 (924d) ↳Fortress$440C/$470P/$420P3+0.633/sh (+190)$34,470$554.90 (+32%)$-26/d109,485

★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365). Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).

Compare Across Chains (click any chain to see this-chain-pick vs default ★ winner)

★ (default winner)Mar '27 (287d) — This IS the default ★ pick: Pure 23ct Long Call $680
This panel represents the current ★ default pick — the same structure shown in the Best Fortress card and Verdict above. Use other chain panels to see how alternates compare.
Jun '27 (377d) Pure 12ct Long Call $610  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 23ct Long Call $680
Dimension THIS: Jun '27 Pure 12ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 23ct Better
Score193,525261,737DEFAULT ★ (-26%)
Contracts1223DEFAULT ★ (-48%)
IC (capital)$49,260$49,450tie
Max Loss$49,260$49,450tie
Breakeven$651.05$701.50THIS (-7%)
Theta/day$-149$-252THIS (+41%)
Weighted P&L$190,420$295,169DEFAULT ★ (-35%)
ROIC (weighted)387%597%DEFAULT ★ (-35%)
DTE377287THIS (+31%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+190,420  |  DEFAULT ★ $+295,169  |  diff $-104,749   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+104,749 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 3, DEFAULT wins 4. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Sep '27 (469d) Pure 8ct Long Call $560  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 23ct Long Call $680
Dimension THIS: Sep '27 Pure 8ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 23ct Better
Score162,596261,737DEFAULT ★ (-38%)
Contracts823DEFAULT ★ (-65%)
IC (capital)$49,680$49,450tie
Max Loss$49,680$49,450tie
Breakeven$622.10$701.50THIS (-11%)
Theta/day$-95$-252THIS (+62%)
Weighted P&L$143,440$295,169DEFAULT ★ (-51%)
ROIC (weighted)289%597%DEFAULT ★ (-52%)
DTE469287THIS (+63%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+143,440  |  DEFAULT ★ $+295,169  |  diff $-151,729   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+151,729 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 3, DEFAULT wins 4. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Dec '27 (560d) Pure 6ct Long Call $520  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 23ct Long Call $680
Dimension THIS: Dec '27 Pure 6ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 23ct Better
Score142,809261,737DEFAULT ★ (-45%)
Contracts623DEFAULT ★ (-74%)
IC (capital)$49,770$49,450DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Max Loss$49,770$49,450DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$602.95$701.50THIS (-14%)
Theta/day$-89$-252THIS (+65%)
Weighted P&L$115,295$295,169DEFAULT ★ (-61%)
ROIC (weighted)232%597%DEFAULT ★ (-61%)
DTE560287THIS (+95%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+115,295  |  DEFAULT ★ $+295,169  |  diff $-179,875   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+179,875 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 3, DEFAULT wins 6. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Jan '28 (595d) Pure 5ct Long Call $480  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 23ct Long Call $680
Dimension THIS: Jan '28 Pure 5ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 23ct Better
Score136,534261,737DEFAULT ★ (-48%)
Contracts523DEFAULT ★ (-78%)
IC (capital)$48,950$49,450THIS (-1%)
Max Loss$48,950$49,450THIS (-1%)
Breakeven$577.90$701.50THIS (-18%)
Theta/day$-82$-252THIS (+67%)
Weighted P&L$106,937$295,169DEFAULT ★ (-64%)
ROIC (weighted)218%597%DEFAULT ★ (-63%)
DTE595287THIS (+107%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+106,937  |  DEFAULT ★ $+295,169  |  diff $-188,232   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+188,232 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 5, DEFAULT wins 4. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Jun '28 (742d) Pure 4ct Long Call $450  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 23ct Long Call $680
Dimension THIS: Jun '28 Pure 4ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 23ct Better
Score123,060261,737DEFAULT ★ (-53%)
Contracts423DEFAULT ★ (-83%)
IC (capital)$49,400$49,450tie
Max Loss$49,400$49,450tie
Breakeven$573.50$701.50THIS (-18%)
Theta/day$-39$-252THIS (+85%)
Weighted P&L$86,310$295,169DEFAULT ★ (-71%)
ROIC (weighted)175%597%DEFAULT ★ (-71%)
DTE742287THIS (+159%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+86,310  |  DEFAULT ★ $+295,169  |  diff $-208,860   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+208,860 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 3, DEFAULT wins 4. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Dec '28 (924d) Pure 3ct Long Call $380  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 23ct Long Call $680
Dimension THIS: Dec '28 Pure 3ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 23ct Better
Score113,932261,737DEFAULT ★ (-56%)
Contracts323DEFAULT ★ (-87%)
IC (capital)$49,920$49,450DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Max Loss$49,920$49,450DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$546.40$701.50THIS (-22%)
Theta/day$-24$-252THIS (+90%)
Weighted P&L$71,607$295,169DEFAULT ★ (-76%)
ROIC (weighted)143%597%DEFAULT ★ (-76%)
DTE924287THIS (+222%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+71,607  |  DEFAULT ★ $+295,169  |  diff $-223,562   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+223,562 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 3, DEFAULT wins 6. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Best Fortress: $600C / $480P / $430P (Mar '27, 287d)

LegActionStrikePriceDelta
LCBUY$600.0C$30.80+0.313
SPSELL$480.0P$103.15-0.527
HPBUY$430.0P$72.35+0.422
CtDeltaICMLBEThetaLevScoreROIC
10 +0.207/sh (+207) $-0$50,000 $600.00 (+43%)$-129/d 8.4x180,805+0%

Verdict: PURE PREFERRED

Dimension Fortress Pure Winner
$600C / $480P / $430P
10 contracts · Mar '27 (287d)		 $680C
23 contracts · Mar '27 (287d)
Score180,805261,737PURE (-31%)
Contracts1023PURE (-57%)
IC (capital)$-0$49,450FORT (-100%)
Max Loss$50,000$49,450PURE (+1%)
Breakeven$600.00$701.50FORT (-14%)
Theta/day$-129$-252FORT (-49%)
ROIC (weighted)0%597%PURE (-100%)

Pure scores +31% — too wide a gap to justify the 3-leg fortress complexity. Buy the pure call.

Stop Profile (MTM loss if stop hits)

StopStock at Fortress 10ctPure 23ctStock 119sh
-5%$398.62-$4,348-$11,227-$2,497
-10%$377.64-$8,695-$22,455-$4,993
-15%$356.66-$13,043-$33,682-$7,490
-20%$335.68-$17,391-$44,909-$9,986
-30%$293.72-$26,086-$67,364-$14,980

Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.

P&L Comparison

MovePriceFortress 10ct Mar'27Pure 23ct Mar'27F-P DiffWinner
-19%$336$-50,000$-49,450$-550(Pure)
+0%$420$-50,000$-49,450$-550(Pure)
+25%$524$0$-49,450$+49,450(Fort)
+50%$629$+29,393$-49,450$+78,843(Fort)
+75%$734$+134,291$+75,420$+58,871(Fort)
+100%$839$+239,190$+316,687$-77,497(Pure)
+200%$1,259$+658,785$+1,281,756$-622,971(Pure)
Weighted—$+203,900$+295,169$-91,269(Pure)

How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Convexity view: bigger moves matter most. +75% and +100% get the biggest weights. Tail at +200% counted; downside lightly weighted. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.

BREAKOUT — Active 6mo+ directional

TSLA @ $419.60

Sizing: $50,000 (Deep ITM Only) | Chains: Aug 2026 (77d), Sep 2026 (105d), Oct 2026 (133d), Nov 2026 (168d), Dec 2026 (196d), Jan 2027 (224d), Mar 2027 (287d), Jun 2027 (377d), Sep 2027 (469d), Dec 2027 (560d), Jan 2028 (595d), Jun 2028 (742d), Dec 2028 (924d)
BREAKOUT MODE — Bucket A only (deep ITM stock replacement) over a 6-month horizon. Score = (weighted P&L across sigma-scaled targets at 0.5/1.0/1.5/2.0/3.0σ of expected move (+17%, +35%, +52%, +70%, +105%; ATM IV 49%)) ÷ reward / max-loss + theta-cost, multiplied by time-fit. Stock baseline shown alongside Fortress and Pure for risk-budget comparison. Use for active directional trades; the Score Breakdown and Stop Profile cards below show per-target P&L and stop loss.

Breakout Mode: 6-month horizon, sigma-targets: +17%, +35%, +52%, +70%, +105% (IV 49%) ($50,000 ML budget)

All Candidates

ChainTypeStructureCtDeltaICBEThetaScore
Aug '26 (77d) ↳Fortress$385C/$460P/$405P6+0.477/sh (+286)$15,420$435.35 (+4%)$-155/d0.9893
Sep '26 (105d) ↳Fortress$380C/$460P/$390P5+0.459/sh (+230)$14,025$434.02 (+3%)$-100/d1.15
Oct '26 (133d) ↳Fortress$380C/$460P/$415P5+0.560/sh (+280)$23,375$443.38 (+6%)$-95/d1.37
Nov '26 (168d) ↳Fortress$370C/$460P/$380P4+0.499/sh (+200)$17,200$436.50 (+4%)$-65/d1.43
★Dec '26 (196d) ↳Fortress$370C/$460P/$385P4+1.619/sh (+648)$19,380$439.23 (+5%)$-31/d1.64
▲Dec '26 (196d) ↳Pure$370C5+0.725/sh (+362)$44,750$459.50 (+10%)$-80/d1.56
Jan '27 (224d) ↳Fortress$370C/$460P/$400P4+0.573/sh (+229)$23,800$444.75 (+6%)$-59/d1.46
Mar '27 (287d) ↳Fortress$380C/$460P/$410P4+0.592/sh (+237)$27,820$454.77 (+8%)$-54/d1.35
Jun '27 (377d) ↳Fortress$350C/$460P/$380P3+0.609/sh (+183)$25,125$446.88 (+7%)$-34/d1.14
Sep '27 (469d) ↳Fortress$370C/$460P/$380P3+0.596/sh (+179)$25,440$457.40 (+9%)$-32/d1.03
Dec '27 (560d) ↳Fortress$370C/$440P/$380P3+0.645/sh (+194)$31,800$476.00 (+13%)$-29/d0.9117
Jan '28 (595d) ↳Fortress$380C/$420P/$360P3+0.638/sh (+191)$31,815$486.05 (+16%)$-29/d0.8586
Jun '28 (742d) ↳Fortress$300C/$450P/$330P2+1.486/sh (+297)$25,930$439.82 (+5%)$-1/d0.8534
Dec '28 (924d) ↳Fortress$300C/$460P/$360P2+0.717/sh (+143)$29,990$454.98 (+8%)$-13/d0.7399
●NowStock119 sh @ $419.60119+1.000/sh (+119)$49,932$419.60 (+0%)$0/d0.5334

★ = top breakout score across Fortress, Pure, Stock. ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Read in light of Score Breakdown + Stop Profile. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).

Compare Across Chains (click any chain to see this-chain-pick vs default ★ winner)

Aug '26 (77d) Fortress 6ct $385C/$460P/$405P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Aug '26 Fortress 6ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score0.98931.64DEFAULT ★ (-40%)
Contracts64THIS (+50%)
IC (capital)$15,420$19,380THIS (-20%)
Max Loss$48,420$49,380THIS (-2%)
Breakeven$435.35$439.23THIS (-1%)
Theta/day$-155$-31DEFAULT ★ (-402%)
Weighted P&L$139,635$89,990THIS (+55%)
ROIC (weighted)906%464%THIS (+95%)
DTE77196DEFAULT ★ (-61%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+139,635  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $+49,645   → THIS pays $+49,645 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 6, DEFAULT wins 3. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Sep '26 (105d) Fortress 5ct $380C/$460P/$390P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Sep '26 Fortress 5ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score1.151.64DEFAULT ★ (-30%)
Contracts54THIS (+25%)
IC (capital)$14,025$19,380THIS (-28%)
Max Loss$49,025$49,380THIS (-1%)
Breakeven$434.02$439.23THIS (-1%)
Theta/day$-100$-31DEFAULT ★ (-222%)
Weighted P&L$117,688$89,990THIS (+31%)
ROIC (weighted)839%464%THIS (+81%)
DTE105196DEFAULT ★ (-46%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+117,688  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $+27,698   → THIS pays $+27,698 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 6, DEFAULT wins 3. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Oct '26 (133d) Fortress 5ct $380C/$460P/$415P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Oct '26 Fortress 5ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score1.371.64DEFAULT ★ (-16%)
Contracts54THIS (+25%)
IC (capital)$23,375$19,380DEFAULT ★ (+21%)
Max Loss$45,875$49,380THIS (-7%)
Breakeven$443.38$439.23DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Theta/day$-95$-31DEFAULT ★ (-206%)
Weighted P&L$108,338$89,990THIS (+20%)
ROIC (weighted)463%464%tie
DTE133196DEFAULT ★ (-32%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+108,338  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $+18,348   → THIS pays $+18,348 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 3, DEFAULT wins 5. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Nov '26 (168d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$380P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Nov '26 Fortress 4ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score1.431.64DEFAULT ★ (-13%)
Contracts44tie
IC (capital)$17,200$19,380THIS (-11%)
Max Loss$49,200$49,380tie
Breakeven$436.50$439.23THIS (-1%)
Theta/day$-65$-31DEFAULT ★ (-108%)
Weighted P&L$92,170$89,990THIS (+2%)
ROIC (weighted)536%464%THIS (+15%)
DTE168196DEFAULT ★ (-14%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+92,170  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $+2,180   → THIS pays $+2,180 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 4, DEFAULT wins 3. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

★ (default winner)Dec '26 (196d) — This IS the default ★ pick: Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
This panel represents the current ★ default pick — the same structure shown in the Best Fortress card and Verdict above. Use other chain panels to see how alternates compare.
Jan '27 (224d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$400P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Jan '27 Fortress 4ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score1.461.64DEFAULT ★ (-11%)
Contracts44tie
IC (capital)$23,800$19,380DEFAULT ★ (+23%)
Max Loss$47,800$49,380THIS (-3%)
Breakeven$444.75$439.23DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Theta/day$-59$-31DEFAULT ★ (-91%)
Weighted P&L$85,570$89,990DEFAULT ★ (-5%)
ROIC (weighted)360%464%DEFAULT ★ (-23%)
DTE224196THIS (+14%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+85,570  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $-4,420   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+4,420 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 6. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Mar '27 (287d) Fortress 4ct $380C/$460P/$410P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Mar '27 Fortress 4ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score1.351.64DEFAULT ★ (-18%)
Contracts44tie
IC (capital)$27,820$19,380DEFAULT ★ (+44%)
Max Loss$47,820$49,380THIS (-3%)
Breakeven$454.77$439.23DEFAULT ★ (+4%)
Theta/day$-54$-31DEFAULT ★ (-76%)
Weighted P&L$77,550$89,990DEFAULT ★ (-14%)
ROIC (weighted)279%464%DEFAULT ★ (-40%)
DTE287196THIS (+46%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+77,550  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $-12,440   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+12,440 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 6. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Jun '27 (377d) Fortress 3ct $350C/$460P/$380P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Jun '27 Fortress 3ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score1.141.64DEFAULT ★ (-30%)
Contracts34DEFAULT ★ (-25%)
IC (capital)$25,125$19,380DEFAULT ★ (+30%)
Max Loss$49,125$49,380THIS (-1%)
Breakeven$446.88$439.23DEFAULT ★ (+2%)
Theta/day$-34$-31DEFAULT ★ (-8%)
Weighted P&L$62,903$89,990DEFAULT ★ (-30%)
ROIC (weighted)250%464%DEFAULT ★ (-46%)
DTE377196THIS (+92%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+62,903  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $-27,088   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+27,088 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 7. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Sep '27 (469d) Fortress 3ct $370C/$460P/$380P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Sep '27 Fortress 3ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score1.031.64DEFAULT ★ (-37%)
Contracts34DEFAULT ★ (-25%)
IC (capital)$25,440$19,380DEFAULT ★ (+31%)
Max Loss$49,440$49,380tie
Breakeven$457.40$439.23DEFAULT ★ (+4%)
Theta/day$-32$-31DEFAULT ★ (-3%)
Weighted P&L$56,588$89,990DEFAULT ★ (-37%)
ROIC (weighted)222%464%DEFAULT ★ (-52%)
DTE469196THIS (+139%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+56,588  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $-33,403   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+33,403 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 1, DEFAULT wins 7. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Dec '27 (560d) Fortress 3ct $370C/$440P/$380P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Dec '27 Fortress 3ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score0.91171.64DEFAULT ★ (-44%)
Contracts34DEFAULT ★ (-25%)
IC (capital)$31,800$19,380DEFAULT ★ (+64%)
Max Loss$49,800$49,380DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$476.00$439.23DEFAULT ★ (+8%)
Theta/day$-29$-31THIS (+5%)
Weighted P&L$50,228$89,990DEFAULT ★ (-44%)
ROIC (weighted)158%464%DEFAULT ★ (-66%)
DTE560196THIS (+186%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+50,228  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $-39,763   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+39,763 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 7. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Jan '28 (595d) Fortress 3ct $380C/$420P/$360P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Jan '28 Fortress 3ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score0.85861.64DEFAULT ★ (-48%)
Contracts34DEFAULT ★ (-25%)
IC (capital)$31,815$19,380DEFAULT ★ (+64%)
Max Loss$49,815$49,380DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$486.05$439.23DEFAULT ★ (+11%)
Theta/day$-29$-31THIS (+7%)
Weighted P&L$47,213$89,990DEFAULT ★ (-48%)
ROIC (weighted)148%464%DEFAULT ★ (-68%)
DTE595196THIS (+204%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+47,213  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $-42,778   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+42,778 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 7. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Jun '28 (742d) Fortress 2ct $300C/$450P/$330P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Jun '28 Fortress 2ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score0.85341.64DEFAULT ★ (-48%)
Contracts24DEFAULT ★ (-50%)
IC (capital)$25,930$19,380DEFAULT ★ (+34%)
Max Loss$49,930$49,380DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$439.82$439.23tie
Theta/day$-1$-31THIS (+97%)
Weighted P&L$42,755$89,990DEFAULT ★ (-52%)
ROIC (weighted)165%464%DEFAULT ★ (-64%)
DTE742196THIS (+279%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+42,755  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $-47,235   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+47,235 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 6. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Dec '28 (924d) Fortress 2ct $300C/$460P/$360P  vs  ★ DEFAULT Dec '26 (196d) Fortress 4ct $370C/$460P/$385P
Dimension THIS: Dec '28 Fortress 2ct DEFAULT ★: Dec '26 Fortress 4ct Better
Score0.73991.64DEFAULT ★ (-55%)
Contracts24DEFAULT ★ (-50%)
IC (capital)$29,990$19,380DEFAULT ★ (+55%)
Max Loss$49,990$49,380DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$454.98$439.23DEFAULT ★ (+4%)
Theta/day$-13$-31THIS (+59%)
Weighted P&L$38,695$89,990DEFAULT ★ (-57%)
ROIC (weighted)129%464%DEFAULT ★ (-72%)
DTE924196THIS (+371%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+38,695  |  DEFAULT ★ $+89,990  |  diff $-51,295   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+51,295 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 7. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Best Fortress: $370C / $460P / $385P (Dec '26, 196d)

LegActionStrikePriceDelta
LCBUY$370.0C$89.50+0.725
SPSELL$460.0P$79.70+0.571
HPBUY$385.0P$38.65+0.323
CtDeltaICMLBEThetaLevScoreROIC
4 +1.619/sh (+648) $19,380$49,380 $439.23 (+5%)$-31/d 8.7x1.64+868%

Verdict: FORTRESS PREFERRED

Dimension Fortress Pure Winner
$370C / $460P / $385P
4 contracts · Dec '26 (196d)		 $370C
5 contracts · Dec '26 (196d)
Score1.641.56FORT (+5%)
Contracts45PURE (-20%)
IC (capital)$19,380$44,750FORT (-57%)
Max Loss$49,380$44,750PURE (+10%)
Breakeven$439.23$459.50FORT (-4%)
Theta/day$-31$-80FORT (-61%)
ROIC (weighted)464%206%FORT (+126%)

Fortress scores 5% higher on breakout score (sigma-weighted (5 targets at 0.5-3sigma of expected move), expiry P&L net of theta over 6-month hold).

Score Breakdown (sigma-weighted (5 targets at 0.5-3sigma))

sigmaMovePriceWeight Fortress 4ctPure 5ctStock 119shWinner
0.5sigma+17%$492.9815%$+29,813$+16,741$+8,733(Fort)
1sigma+35%$566.3720%$+59,168$+53,435$+17,466(Fort)
1.5sigma+52%$639.7630%$+88,522$+90,128$+26,199(Pure)
2sigma+70%$713.1425%$+117,877$+126,822$+34,932(Pure)
3sigma+105%$859.9210%$+176,587$+200,209$+52,398(Pure)
Weighted average P&L100% $+89,990 $+91,963 $+26,636 (Pure)

Each row is the at-expiry P&L if the stock lands at the target price. Score = (weighted-avg P&L) / (max-loss + theta-cost-over-hold) * time-fit. Read this table to override the score winner if your conviction favors a specific scenario row.

Stop Profile (MTM loss if stop hits)

StopStock at Fortress 4ctPure 5ctStock 119sh
-5%$398.62-$13,585-$7,603-$2,497
-10%$377.64-$27,170-$15,207-$4,993
-15%$356.66-$40,754-$22,810-$7,490
-20%$335.68-$54,339-$30,413-$9,986
-30%$293.72-$81,509-$45,620-$14,980

Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.

P&L Comparison

MovePriceFortress 4ct Dec'26Pure 5ct Dec'26Stock 119shF-P DiffWinner
-19%$336$-49,380$-44,750$-9,986$-4,630(Stock)
+0%$420$-15,704$-19,952$0$+4,249(Stock)
+25%$524$+42,418$+32,497$+12,483$+9,921(Fort)
+50%$629$+84,377$+84,946$+24,966$-569(Pure)
+75%$734$+126,336$+137,396$+37,449$-11,059(Pure)
+100%$839$+168,296$+189,845$+49,932$-21,549(Pure)
+200%$1,259$+336,134$+399,643$+99,864$-63,508(Pure)
Weighted—$+89,990$+91,963$+26,636$-1,973(Pure)

How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. Active directional view: targets at 0.5-3 sigma of expected move over the chosen horizon. 1.5-sigma carries the biggest weight (most likely breakout magnitude). The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.

YOLO — 3-4x thesis (2yr)

TSLA @ $419.60

Sizing: $50,000 (OTM Only) | Chains: Mar 2027 (287d), Jun 2027 (377d), Sep 2027 (469d), Dec 2027 (560d), Jan 2028 (595d), Jun 2028 (742d), Dec 2028 (924d)
YOLO MODE — Bucket B widened to LC 95-300% and SP 30-130% of stock, tail-weighted scoring with peaks at +200% (3x) and +300% (4x). Bucket A is shown below as a context comparison; the YOLO play is the OTM section above. Use this only on names with strong directional conviction over a 2-year horizon.

YOLO Mode: Widened OTM (LC max 300% of stock, 3-4x thesis, 2yr horizon) ($50,000 ML budget)

All Candidates

ChainTypeStructureCtDeltaICBEThetaScore
◆Mar '27 (287d) ↳Fortress$790C/$480P/$430P15+0.054/sh (+81)$-25,125$773.25 (+84%)$-139/d742,040
★Mar '27 (287d) ↳Pure$830C40+0.140/sh (+559)$49,000$842.25 (+101%)$-316/d1,765,259
Jun '27 (377d) ↳Fortress$800C/$480P/$430P12+0.114/sh (+137)$-10,680$791.10 (+89%)$-114/d660,375
Sep '27 (469d) ↳Fortress$810C/$480P/$430P10+0.163/sh (+163)$-250$809.75 (+93%)$-96/d594,304
Dec '27 (560d) ↳Fortress$830C/$480P/$430P9+0.198/sh (+178)$4,860$835.40 (+99%)$-80/d559,111
Jan '28 (595d) ↳Fortress$780C/$480P/$430P8+1.190/sh (+952)$9,680$792.10 (+89%)$-33/d549,090
Jun '28 (742d) ↳Fortress$730C/$480P/$430P6+1.233/sh (+740)$19,980$763.30 (+82%)$-29/d478,306
Dec '28 (924d) ↳Fortress$730C/$470P/$420P5+0.222/sh (+111)$24,900$779.80 (+86%)$-42/d431,668
●NowStock119 sh @ $419.60119+1.000/sh (+119)$49,932$419.60 (+0%)$0/d146,492

★ = recommended pick (per Verdict below; multi-dim winner across score, capital, BE, theta, ROIC). ◆ = best Fortress (when not winner). ▲ = best Pure (when not winner). ● = Stock baseline reference. Score = WSPL x sqrt(DTE/365), tail-weighted for 3-4x thesis. Positive theta = you collect time decay daily (paid to wait). Negative theta = you pay time decay daily (cost of holding long options).

Compare Across Chains (click any chain to see this-chain-pick vs default ★ winner)

★ (default winner)Mar '27 (287d) — This IS the default ★ pick: Pure 40ct Long Call $830
This panel represents the current ★ default pick — the same structure shown in the Best Fortress card and Verdict above. Use other chain panels to see how alternates compare.
Jun '27 (377d) Pure 25ct Long Call $830  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 40ct Long Call $830
Dimension THIS: Jun '27 Pure 25ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 40ct Better
Score1,245,9501,765,259DEFAULT ★ (-29%)
Contracts2540DEFAULT ★ (-38%)
IC (capital)$48,875$49,000tie
Max Loss$48,875$49,000tie
Breakeven$849.55$842.25DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Theta/day$-238$-316THIS (+25%)
Weighted P&L$1,225,960$1,990,737DEFAULT ★ (-38%)
ROIC (weighted)2508%4063%DEFAULT ★ (-38%)
DTE377287THIS (+31%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+1,225,960  |  DEFAULT ★ $+1,990,737  |  diff $-764,776   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+764,776 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 5. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Sep '27 (469d) Pure 18ct Long Call $830  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 40ct Long Call $830
Dimension THIS: Sep '27 Pure 18ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 40ct Better
Score984,2501,765,259DEFAULT ★ (-44%)
Contracts1840DEFAULT ★ (-55%)
IC (capital)$49,590$49,000DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Max Loss$49,590$49,000DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$857.55$842.25DEFAULT ★ (+2%)
Theta/day$-175$-316THIS (+45%)
Weighted P&L$868,292$1,990,737DEFAULT ★ (-56%)
ROIC (weighted)1751%4063%DEFAULT ★ (-57%)
DTE469287THIS (+63%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+868,292  |  DEFAULT ★ $+1,990,737  |  diff $-1,122,445   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+1,122,445 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 7. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Dec '27 (560d) Pure 14ct Long Call $830  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 40ct Long Call $830
Dimension THIS: Dec '27 Pure 14ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 40ct Better
Score823,1531,765,259DEFAULT ★ (-53%)
Contracts1440DEFAULT ★ (-65%)
IC (capital)$49,350$49,000DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Max Loss$49,350$49,000DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$865.25$842.25DEFAULT ★ (+3%)
Theta/day$-125$-316THIS (+60%)
Weighted P&L$664,558$1,990,737DEFAULT ★ (-67%)
ROIC (weighted)1347%4063%DEFAULT ★ (-67%)
DTE560287THIS (+95%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+664,558  |  DEFAULT ★ $+1,990,737  |  diff $-1,326,179   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+1,326,179 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 7. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Jan '28 (595d) Pure 13ct Long Call $830  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 40ct Long Call $830
Dimension THIS: Jan '28 Pure 13ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 40ct Better
Score783,9801,765,259DEFAULT ★ (-56%)
Contracts1340DEFAULT ★ (-68%)
IC (capital)$48,880$49,000tie
Max Loss$48,880$49,000tie
Breakeven$867.60$842.25DEFAULT ★ (+3%)
Theta/day$-114$-316THIS (+64%)
Weighted P&L$614,034$1,990,737DEFAULT ★ (-69%)
ROIC (weighted)1256%4063%DEFAULT ★ (-69%)
DTE595287THIS (+107%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+614,034  |  DEFAULT ★ $+1,990,737  |  diff $-1,376,702   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+1,376,702 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 5. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Jun '28 (742d) Pure 9ct Long Call $790  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 40ct Long Call $830
Dimension THIS: Jun '28 Pure 9ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 40ct Better
Score627,7751,765,259DEFAULT ★ (-64%)
Contracts940DEFAULT ★ (-78%)
IC (capital)$49,410$49,000DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Max Loss$49,410$49,000DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$844.90$842.25tie
Theta/day$-85$-316THIS (+73%)
Weighted P&L$440,300$1,990,737DEFAULT ★ (-78%)
ROIC (weighted)891%4063%DEFAULT ★ (-78%)
DTE742287THIS (+159%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+440,300  |  DEFAULT ★ $+1,990,737  |  diff $-1,550,437   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+1,550,437 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 6. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Dec '28 (924d) Pure 7ct Long Call $790  vs  ★ DEFAULT Mar '27 (287d) Pure 40ct Long Call $830
Dimension THIS: Dec '28 Pure 7ct DEFAULT ★: Mar '27 Pure 40ct Better
Score527,5521,765,259DEFAULT ★ (-70%)
Contracts740DEFAULT ★ (-82%)
IC (capital)$49,315$49,000DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Max Loss$49,315$49,000DEFAULT ★ (+1%)
Breakeven$860.45$842.25DEFAULT ★ (+2%)
Theta/day$-53$-316THIS (+83%)
Weighted P&L$331,571$1,990,737DEFAULT ★ (-83%)
ROIC (weighted)672%4063%DEFAULT ★ (-83%)
DTE924287THIS (+222%)

Weighted P&L: THIS $+331,571  |  DEFAULT ★ $+1,990,737  |  diff $-1,659,166   → DEFAULT ★ pays $+1,659,166 more under this mode's weights.

Dim-by-dim: THIS wins 2, DEFAULT wins 7. "THIS" pays more = anchor here instead. "DEFAULT" pays more = current pick stays best.

Best Fortress: $790C / $480P / $430P (Mar '27, 287d)

LegActionStrikePriceDelta
LCBUY$790.0C$14.05+0.159
SPSELL$480.0P$103.15-0.527
HPBUY$430.0P$72.35+0.422
CtDeltaICMLBEThetaLevScoreROIC
15 +0.054/sh (+81) $-25,125$49,875 $773.25 (+84%)$-139/d 12.6x742,040+0%

Verdict: PURE PREFERRED

Dimension Fortress Pure Winner
$790C / $480P / $430P
15 contracts · Mar '27 (287d)		 $830C
40 contracts · Mar '27 (287d)
Score742,0401,765,259PURE (-58%)
Contracts1540PURE (-62%)
IC (capital)$-25,125$49,000FORT (-151%)
Max Loss$49,875$49,000PURE (+2%)
Breakeven$773.25$842.25FORT (-8%)
Theta/day$-139$-316FORT (-56%)
ROIC (weighted)0%4063%PURE (-100%)

Pure scores +58% — too wide a gap to justify the 3-leg fortress complexity. Buy the pure call.

Stop Profile (MTM loss if stop hits)

StopStock at Fortress 15ctPure 40ctStock 119sh
-5%$398.62-$1,696-$11,726-$2,497
-10%$377.64-$3,391-$23,453-$4,993
-15%$356.66-$5,087-$35,179-$7,490
-20%$335.68-$6,782-$46,906-$9,986
-30%$293.72-$10,174-$70,359-$14,980

Loss = |net_delta_total * stock_price * stop_pct|. Delta-only first-order estimate; ignores vega/theta. Conservative (LOW-end) — real MTM loss is typically 10-30% larger due to extrinsic compression on a fast move.

P&L Comparison

MovePriceFortress 15ct Mar'27Pure 40ct Mar'27Stock 119shF-P DiffWinner
-19%$336$-49,875$-49,000$-9,986$-875(Stock)
+0%$420$-49,875$-49,000$0$-875(Stock)
+50%$629$+25,125$-49,000$+24,966$+74,125(Fort)
+100%$839$+98,910$-12,240$+49,932$+111,150(Fort)
+200%$1,259$+728,303$+1,666,140$+99,864$-937,838(Pure)
+300%$1,678$+1,357,695$+3,344,520$+149,795$-1,986,825(Pure)
+400%$2,098$+1,987,088$+5,022,900$+199,727$-3,035,813(Pure)
+700%$3,357$+3,875,265$+10,058,040$+349,523$-6,182,775(Pure)
+1000%$4,616$+5,763,442$+15,093,180$+499,318$-9,329,738(Pure)
Weighted—$+836,821$+1,990,737$+104,302$-1,153,916(Pure)

How to read the Weighted row: your expected dollar P&L if all the scenarios above played out, with each weighted by how much it matters for this mode. 3-4x thesis: huge moves matter most. +200% (3x) and +300% (4x) get the biggest weights. +400% counted as tail; +700% / +1000% rows shown above are eye candy and don't count. The Score is this same number multiplied by √(DTE/365) so longer-dated chains get a small bonus.

CC Overlay

No CC candidates found above breakeven. Run live (without --csv) if CC data was not included in the CSV export.