+5 Jan 21 '28 200C-5 Jan 21 '28 250P+5 Feb 19 '27 215P448 days leftCSV ND 67.92entry $269 -13.0%CC-SS $272.47 (+16% vs spot)BE-SS $267.92 (+14% vs spot)
Spot
$234.14
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:52:11
When to roll✓ OPPORTUNITY
A roll pays you and frees margin today
A roll exists today that pays you $5,186 and frees $1,219 of margin while keeping the upside: no reason to wait for it.
Holding as is costs about $26 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY
Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery
Since 2026-08-12 it has banked $1,795, $682/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $682/mo against a $1,015/mo floor and a $1,715/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $272 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $258 (+10% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,627/mo at AMZN's realized keep of 84% (11 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($682/mo earned vs $1,627/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Jun 16 '28 buys 5 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $23,504 if you keep, $33,397 after the roll; safe calls alone: $11,076 vs $15,946. Odds safe calls restart: 63% vs 63%.
At the record's pace the extra 5 months are worth about $3,296.
Even after the roll the odds are only 63%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.
Coverage Insights: review the hedge in Rolls: a cheaper hedge put, or let this one run off.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
$15,325
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$18,635
Max loss from here
$32,825
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$19,366
a close frees it; model $16,600; $16,600 on all AMZN here
CC-SS
$272.47
safe call from $258
Net delta
+479 sh
notional $117,070
Theta
-$26/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$23.66
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$16,840
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$18,635
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$1,795
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
+$15,325
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$7,547
expected; -$16,840 if closed today
Chance of break-even
38%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$32,825
36% of the $51,460 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$49,665
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $16,600 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $7,307.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH, LOWEST MAX LOSS
+$6,825
cash at mid today (natural +$4,925)
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28+5 months
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 220C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 260P (open)
Margin change (IBKR)
-$337
asked at 21:53; model -$1,219, this underlying only
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,639
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$4,540
actual: $939 a month x 5 months; covers all of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
63% → 63%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$31,000
-$1,825 vs keep
CC-SS
$274.62
now $272.47
CSV ND after
54.27
at a mid fill
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-08-12
Banked since entry
$1,795
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$682/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$682/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$1,365
Aug 2026
$1,365
Aug
Sep
Oct
life pace $682/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$682/mo
NOT PAYING ITS HEDGE
floor $1,015
design $1,715
$682/mo earned against $1,015/mo of hedge carry
Scanner's best pick today
$542/mo
Banked so far
$1,795
Whole-life P/L
-$13,192
Time with a call written
58%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
32%
CBOE 30-day 31%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 42
Next earnings
2027-02-04
97 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$1,627/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 84% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $258
spot $234
Spot needs +10% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$23,504
Roll Jun 16 '28
$33,397
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
63%
Roll Jun 16 '28
63%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$11,076
Roll Jun 16 '28
$15,946
Months bought
5
Worth at the record's pace
$3,296
Engine state
STALLED
Roll choices on Jun 16 '28
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASHalso LOWEST MAX LOSS
Cash at mid
+$6,825
Margin change
-$1,219
Strikes
220C / -260P / +215P (kept)
Cash at natural
+$4,925
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,639
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$9,893 (+$2,046/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$4,871 (+$1,007/mo)
Restart odds
63% (keep 63%)
Value incl. income
+$16,298
Max loss from here
$31,000 (-$1,825)
CC-SS
$274.62 (now $272.47)
Net delta
+456 sh (now +479)
CSV ND after
54.27
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 1113
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 220C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 260P (open)
LEAST MARGIN
Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
+$1,688
Margin change
-$1,433
Strikes
210C / -250P / +215P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$300
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,639
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$9,895 (+$2,046/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$4,926 (+$1,019/mo)
Restart odds
64% (keep 63%)
Value incl. income
+$11,377
Max loss from here
$31,138 (-$1,688)
CC-SS
$274.51 (now $272.47)
Net delta
+452 sh (now +479)
CSV ND after
64.55
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 310
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 210C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 250P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
+$362
Margin change
+$628
Strikes
195C / -260P / +215P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$1,725
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,639
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$9,927 (+$2,053/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$6,226 (+$1,288/mo)
Restart odds
66% (keep 63%)
Value incl. income
+$8,022
Max loss from here
$37,462 (+$4,638)
CC-SS
$271.74 (now $272.47)
Net delta
+496 sh (now +479)
CSV ND after
67.20
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 157
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 195C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 260P (open)
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
-$1,488
Margin change
-$694
Strikes
200C / -250P / +215P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$3,200
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,639
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$9,907 (+$2,049/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$5,418 (+$1,121/mo)
Restart odds
64% (keep 63%)
Value incl. income
+$7,475
Max loss from here
$34,312 (+$1,488)
CC-SS
$273.46 (now $272.47)
Net delta
+468 sh (now +479)
CSV ND after
70.89
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 620
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 200C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 250P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
200
250
215
-
-
-
-
-
63%
-
$32,825
$272.47
+479
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$6,825
-$1,639
-$1,219
+$9,893 +$2,046/mo
+$4,871 +$1,007/mo
63%
+$16,298
$31,000
$274.62
+456
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$6,825
-$1,639
-$1,219
+$9,893 +$2,046/mo
+$4,871 +$1,007/mo
63%
+$16,298
$31,000
$274.62
+456
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$6,825
-$1,639
-$1,219
+$9,893 +$2,046/mo
+$4,871 +$1,007/mo
63%
+$16,298
$31,000
$274.62
+456
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
210
250
215 (kept)
+$1,688
-$1,639
-$1,433
+$9,895 +$2,046/mo
+$4,926 +$1,019/mo
64%
+$11,377
$31,138
$274.51
+452
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$6,825
-$1,639
-$1,219
+$9,893 +$2,046/mo
+$4,871 +$1,007/mo
63%
+$16,298
$31,000
$274.62
+456
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
195
260
215 (kept)
+$362
-$1,639
+$628
+$9,927 +$2,053/mo
+$6,226 +$1,288/mo
66%
+$8,022
$37,462
$271.74
+496
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
200
250
215 (kept)
-$1,488
-$1,639
-$694
+$9,907 +$2,049/mo
+$5,418 +$1,121/mo
64%
+$7,475
$34,312
$273.46
+468
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (+$6,825 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($164)
Spot +0% ($234)
Spot +30% ($304)
Today
448
-
+$6,825
-
2027-10-23
90
+$2,076
+$8,332
+$11,000
2027-12-07
45
+$1,609
+$9,111
+$11,531
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jun 16 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$6,825
-$1,639
-$1,219
+$9,893 +$2,046/mo
+$4,871 +$1,007/mo
63%
+$16,298
$31,000
$274.62
+456
Dec 15 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
210
260
215 (kept)
+$2,475
-$3,244
-$952
+$19,855 +$1,835/mo
+$10,981 +$1,015/mo
65%
+$20,037
$35,350
$274.24
+464
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
210
260
215 (kept)
+$2,075
-$3,512
-$963
+$21,848 +$1,825/mo
+$12,151 +$1,015/mo
65%
+$21,374
$35,750
$274.30
+465
Top 25 candidates on Jun 16 '28
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$6,825
-$1,639
-$1,219
+$9,893 +$2,046/mo
+$4,871 +$1,007/mo
63%
+$16,298
$31,000
$274.62
+456
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
210
260
215 (kept)
+$4,675
-$1,639
-$491
+$9,909 +$2,049/mo
+$5,474 +$1,132/mo
64%
+$13,435
$33,150
$273.35
+472
3
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
210
250
215 (kept)
+$1,688
-$1,639
-$1,433
+$9,895 +$2,046/mo
+$4,926 +$1,019/mo
64%
+$11,377
$31,138
$274.51
+452
4
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
200
260
215 (kept)
+$1,500
-$1,639
+$249
+$9,920 +$2,051/mo
+$5,941 +$1,229/mo
65%
+$9,532
$36,325
$272.35
+488
5
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
195
260
215 (kept)
+$362
-$1,639
+$628
+$9,927 +$2,053/mo
+$6,226 +$1,288/mo
66%
+$8,022
$37,462
$271.74
+496
6
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
200
250
215 (kept)
-$1,488
-$1,639
-$694
+$9,907 +$2,049/mo
+$5,418 +$1,121/mo
64%
+$7,475
$34,312
$273.46
+468
7
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
195
250
215 (kept)
-$2,625
-$1,639
-$315
+$9,915 +$2,050/mo
+$5,720 +$1,183/mo
65%
+$5,966
$35,450
$272.82
+476
How this was built
160 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 32 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($267.92), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.15), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (32%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.