+5 Jan 21 '28 200C-5 Jan 21 '28 250P+5 Feb 19 '27 215P448 days leftCSV ND 67.92entry $269 -16.0%CC-SS $255.26 (+13% vs spot)BE-SS $267.92 (+19% vs spot)
Spot
$225.99
CBOE 2026-10-30 06:44:54
When to roll✓ OPPORTUNITY
A roll pays you and frees margin today
A roll exists today that pays you $5,438 and frees $1,222 of margin while keeping the upside: no reason to wait for it.
Holding as is costs about $23 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 10% of mid, open interest as low as 1113): work the order at mid, never natural.
Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY
Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery
Since 2026-08-12 it has banked $1,795, $682/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $682/mo against a $1,015/mo floor and a $1,715/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $255 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $235 (+4% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $2,153/mo at AMZN's realized keep of 84% (11 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($682/mo earned vs $2,153/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Jun 16 '28 buys 5 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $32,801 if you keep, $46,669 after the roll; safe calls alone: $22,494 vs $32,106. Odds safe calls restart: 77% vs 74%.
At the record's pace the extra 5 months are worth about $3,296.
Even after the roll the odds are only 74%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.
Coverage Insights: review the hedge in Rolls: a cheaper hedge put, or let this one run off.
Earnings 2026-10-30 (1 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
$21,488
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$12,472
Max loss from here
$38,988
Margin it holds (model)
$14,899
a close frees it; $14,899 on all AMZN here
CC-SS
$255.26
safe call from $235
Net delta
+498 sh
notional $112,995
Theta
-$23/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$11.49
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$10,678
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$12,472
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$1,795
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
+$21,488
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
+$4,821
expected; -$10,678 if closed today
Chance of break-even
38%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$38,988
24% of the $51,460 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$49,665
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $14,899 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $600.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH, LOWEST MAX LOSS
+$7,250
cash at mid today (natural +$4,150)
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28+5 months
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 220C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 260P (open)
Margin change
-$1,222
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,812
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$4,540
actual: $939 a month x 5 months; covers all of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
77% → 74%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$36,738
-$2,250 vs keep
CC-SS
$257.17
now $255.26
CSV ND after
53.42
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 55% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $180 in 6 months..
Close everything now: +$21,488. Wait for assignment: +$27,233 (the put spread -$8,267, plus the 200C you keep, worth $35,500). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $8,267 more ($17 a share). Basis 84.45; the 200C alone has CC-SS $245.73 (now $255.26), break-even $284, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 200C (at or above the call) about $23,112 a cycle; a 265C (~0.30 delta) about $2,862 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $0 a cycle. The 200C loses about $324 a month to time.
Ride the 200C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-08-12
Banked since entry
$1,795
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$682/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$682/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$1,365
Aug 2026
$1,365
Aug
Sep
Oct
life pace $682/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$682/mo
NOT PAYING ITS HEDGE
floor $1,015
design $1,715
$682/mo earned against $1,015/mo of hedge carry
Scanner's best pick today
$542/mo
Banked so far
$1,795
Whole-life P/L
-$13,192
Time with a call written
58%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
45%
CBOE 30-day 45%
Regime
NEUTRAL
RSI 47
Next earnings
2026-10-30
1 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$2,153/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 84% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $235
spot $226
Spot needs +4% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$32,801
Roll Jun 16 '28
$46,669
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
77%
Roll Jun 16 '28
74%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$22,494
Roll Jun 16 '28
$32,106
Months bought
5
Worth at the record's pace
$3,296
Engine state
STALLED
Roll choices on Jun 16 '28
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASHalso LOWEST MAX LOSS
Cash at mid
+$7,250
Margin change
-$1,222
Strikes
220C / -260P / +215P (kept)
Cash at natural
+$4,150
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,812
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,868 (+$2,868/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$9,612 (+$1,988/mo)
Restart odds
74% (keep 77%)
Value incl. income
+$20,528
Max loss from here
$36,738 (-$2,250)
CC-SS
$257.17 (now $255.26)
Net delta
+478 sh (now +498)
CSV ND after
53.42
Worst spread / min OI
10% / 1113
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 220C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 260P (open)
LEAST MARGIN
Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
-$3,612
Margin change
-$1,516
Strikes
200C / -240P / +215P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$6,175
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,812
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,872 (+$2,869/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$9,636 (+$1,993/mo)
Restart odds
74% (keep 77%)
Value incl. income
+$9,965
Max loss from here
$37,600 (-$1,388)
CC-SS
$257.03 (now $255.26)
Net delta
+469 sh (now +498)
CSV ND after
75.14
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 665
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 200C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 240P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
+$0
Margin change
+$579
Strikes
195C / -260P / +215P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$3,100
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,812
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,953 (+$2,885/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$10,035 (+$2,075/mo)
Restart odds
75% (keep 77%)
Value incl. income
+$11,562
Max loss from here
$43,988 (+$5,000)
CC-SS
$254.71 (now $255.26)
Net delta
+515 sh (now +498)
CSV ND after
67.92
Worst spread / min OI
10% / 157
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 195C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 260P (open)
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
-$1,250
Margin change
-$626
Strikes
200C / -250P / +215P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$4,600
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,812
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,908 (+$2,876/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$9,806 (+$2,028/mo)
Restart odds
74% (keep 77%)
Value incl. income
+$11,473
Max loss from here
$40,238 (+$1,250)
CC-SS
$256.05 (now $255.26)
Net delta
+489 sh (now +498)
CSV ND after
70.42
Worst spread / min OI
13% / 620
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 200C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 250P (close)
BUY 5 Jun 16 '28 200C (open)
SELL 5 Jun 16 '28 250P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
200
250
215
-
-
-
-
-
77%
-
$38,988
$255.26
+498
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$7,250
-$1,812
-$1,222
+$13,868 +$2,868/mo
+$9,612 +$1,988/mo
74%
+$20,528
$36,738
$257.17
+478
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$7,250
-$1,812
-$1,222
+$13,868 +$2,868/mo
+$9,612 +$1,988/mo
74%
+$20,528
$36,738
$257.17
+478
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$7,250
-$1,812
-$1,222
+$13,868 +$2,868/mo
+$9,612 +$1,988/mo
74%
+$20,528
$36,738
$257.17
+478
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
200
240
215 (kept)
-$3,612
-$1,812
-$1,516
+$13,872 +$2,869/mo
+$9,636 +$1,993/mo
74%
+$9,965
$37,600
$257.03
+469
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$7,250
-$1,812
-$1,222
+$13,868 +$2,868/mo
+$9,612 +$1,988/mo
74%
+$20,528
$36,738
$257.17
+478
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
195
260
215 (kept)
+$0
-$1,812
+$579
+$13,953 +$2,885/mo
+$10,035 +$2,075/mo
75%
+$11,562
$43,988
$254.71
+515
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
200
250
215 (kept)
-$1,250
-$1,812
-$626
+$13,908 +$2,876/mo
+$9,806 +$2,028/mo
74%
+$11,473
$40,238
$256.05
+489
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (+$7,250 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($158)
Spot +0% ($226)
Spot +30% ($294)
Today
448
-
+$7,250
-
2027-10-23
90
+$2,927
+$8,167
+$11,814
2027-12-07
45
+$2,619
+$8,454
+$12,717
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jun 16 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$7,250
-$1,812
-$1,222
+$13,868 +$2,868/mo
+$9,612 +$1,988/mo
74%
+$20,528
$36,738
$257.17
+478
Dec 15 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
210
260
215 (kept)
+$2,238
-$3,581
-$747
+$27,876 +$2,576/mo
+$19,983 +$1,846/mo
72%
+$27,280
$41,750
$256.87
+485
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
210
260
215 (kept)
+$1,712
-$3,876
-$803
+$30,681 +$2,562/mo
+$22,079 +$1,844/mo
72%
+$29,321
$42,275
$256.91
+486
Top 25 candidates on Jun 16 '28
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
220
260
215 (kept)
+$7,250
-$1,812
-$1,222
+$13,868 +$2,868/mo
+$9,612 +$1,988/mo
74%
+$20,528
$36,738
$257.17
+478
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
210
260
215 (kept)
+$4,375
-$1,812
-$514
+$13,906 +$2,876/mo
+$9,797 +$2,026/mo
74%
+$16,984
$39,612
$256.10
+493
3
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
210
250
215 (kept)
+$1,500
-$1,812
-$1,357
+$13,871 +$2,869/mo
+$9,629 +$1,991/mo
74%
+$14,917
$37,488
$257.07
+474
4
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
200
260
215 (kept)
+$1,625
-$1,812
+$217
+$13,941 +$2,883/mo
+$9,963 +$2,060/mo
75%
+$13,537
$42,362
$255.13
+508
5
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
195
260
215 (kept)
+$0
-$1,812
+$579
+$13,953 +$2,885/mo
+$10,035 +$2,075/mo
75%
+$11,562
$43,988
$254.71
+515
6
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
200
250
215 (kept)
-$1,250
-$1,812
-$626
+$13,908 +$2,876/mo
+$9,806 +$2,028/mo
74%
+$11,473
$40,238
$256.05
+489
7
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
200
240
215 (kept)
-$3,612
-$1,812
-$1,516
+$13,872 +$2,869/mo
+$9,636 +$1,993/mo
74%
+$9,965
$37,600
$257.03
+469
8
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
195
250
215 (kept)
-$2,875
-$1,812
-$264
+$13,924 +$2,880/mo
+$9,882 +$2,044/mo
75%
+$9,502
$41,862
$255.61
+496
9
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
195
240
215 (kept)
-$5,237
-$1,812
-$1,155
+$13,890 +$2,872/mo
+$9,717 +$2,009/mo
74%
+$7,995
$39,225
$256.56
+477
10
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
190
250
215 (kept)
-$4,500
-$1,812
+$91
+$13,939 +$2,883/mo
+$9,956 +$2,059/mo
75%
+$7,537
$43,488
$255.17
+503
11
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
190
240
215 (kept)
-$6,862
-$1,812
-$800
+$13,906 +$2,876/mo
+$9,796 +$2,026/mo
74%
+$6,032
$40,850
$256.11
+484
12
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
185
240
215 (kept)
-$8,487
-$1,812
-$440
+$13,924 +$2,880/mo
+$9,882 +$2,044/mo
75%
+$4,065
$42,475
$255.61
+490
13
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
185
230
215 (kept)
-$10,850
-$1,812
-$1,083
+$13,888 +$2,872/mo
+$9,710 +$2,008/mo
74%
+$2,309
$39,838
$256.61
+472
14
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
180
240
215 (kept)
-$10,200
-$1,812
-$77
+$13,941 +$2,883/mo
+$9,966 +$2,061/mo
75%
+$2,006
$44,188
$255.12
+497
15
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
180
230
215 (kept)
-$12,562
-$1,812
-$719
+$13,907 +$2,876/mo
+$9,799 +$2,027/mo
74%
+$252
$41,550
$256.09
+478
16
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
175
230
215 (kept)
-$14,462
-$1,812
-$395
+$13,920 +$2,879/mo
+$9,863 +$2,040/mo
75%
-$1,959
$43,450
$255.71
+484
How this was built
103 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 59 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($267.92), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.15), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (45%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.