LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

APP · RetireInc

+1 Jan 21 '28 460C-1 Jan 21 '28 540P+1 Jan 15 '27 185P448 days leftCSV ND 128.00entry $601 -58.6%CC-SS $611.72 (+146% vs spot)BE-SS $588.00 (+136% vs spot)
Spot
$249.00
CBOE 2026-10-30 10:01:02
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
  • 448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
  • Short put deep in the money with $3 of time value (12% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
  • Holding as is costs about $12 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
  • The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 17% of mid, open interest as low as 1): work the order at mid, never natural.
  • The best roll lowers the CC-SS from $612 to $602: covered calls can be written $10 closer to spot.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying⚔ HOLD AND FIGHT
Don't roll, don't close: holding and writing calls beats closing
  • Since 2026-05-31 it has banked $6,830, $1,348/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $552/mo against a $805/mo floor and a $1,610/mo design.
  • Safe calls (at or above the $612 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $526 (+111% from here).
  • FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $764/mo at APP's realized keep of 86% (15 closed calls).
  • The record shows it fights: $1,348/mo earned against a modelled $764/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
  • Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $10,712 if you keep, $20,734 after the roll; safe calls alone: $1,560 vs $5,620. Odds safe calls restart: 15% vs 21%.
  • At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $16,141.
  • The roll costs more (cash and margin) than the income its extra time is expected to bring.
  • Coverage Insights: write calls: today the 50% normal 300C offers $647/mo.
  • Earnings 2026-11-04 (5 days): sell no new income into it.
  • Holding to expiry instead (15 months, calls written all the way, FIGHT included): expected whole-life -$20,300 vs -$31,440 if closed today; 10% chance to finish at break-even or better; worst case -$41,470 (another $10,030 if the legs end at their worst and no call pays); 79% of the entry max loss ($48,300) is already taken.
  • Holding beats closing by about $4,007 on average, after charging it the $7,133 of margin a close would free: don't roll, don't close; keep writing calls.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)
-$25,470
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$38,270
Max loss from here
$10,030
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$7,110
a close frees it; model $7,133; $7,133 on all APP here
CC-SS
$611.72
safe call from $526
Net delta
+105 sh
notional $24,900
Theta
-$12/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$2.55
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$31,440
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$38,270
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$6,830
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$25,470
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$20,300
expected; -$31,440 if closed today
Chance of break-even
10%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$10,030
79% of the $48,300 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$41,470
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $7,133 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $4,007.

Recommended roll

BEST: cash + margin
-$14,195
cash at mid today (natural -$17,150)
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29+12 months
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 310C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 430P (open)
Margin change (IBKR)
+$588
asked at 21:53; model +$514, this underlying only
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$16,141
actual: $1,348 a month x 12 months; covers 505% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
15% → 21%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$13,225
+$3,195 vs keep
CC-SS
$602.00
now $611.72
CSV ND after
269.95
at a mid fill

If you're assigned

Income outlook

Income history · since 2026-05-31
Banked since entry
$6,830
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,348/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$552/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$2,662
Jul 2026
May
Jun
$2,662
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
life pace $1,348/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$552/mo
BELOW DESIGN
floor $805
design $1,610
$552/mo earned pays the hedge but is under half of the $1,610/mo it is designed to earn
Scanner's best pick today
$647/mo
Banked so far
$6,830
Whole-life P/L
-$31,768
Time with a call written
56%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
76%
CBOE 30-day 82%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 31
Next earnings
2026-11-04
5 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$764/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 86% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $526
spot $249
Spot needs +111% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$10,712
Roll Jan 19 '29
$20,734
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
15%
Roll Jan 19 '29
21%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$1,560
Roll Jan 19 '29
$5,620
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$16,141
Engine state
FIGHTING

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

BEST: cash + margin

Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$14,195
Margin change
+$514
Strikes
310C / -430P / +185P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$17,150
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,022 (+$837/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$4,060 (+$339/mo)
Restart odds
21% (keep 15%)
Value incl. income
-$6,092
Max loss from here
$13,225 (+$3,195)
CC-SS
$602.00 (now $611.72)
Net delta
+109 sh (now +105)
CSV ND after
269.95
Worst spread / min OI
17% / 1
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 310C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 430P (open)

BEST WITH INCOME

Cash + margin + the extra income the time buys, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also MOST CASHalso SAME STRIKES
Cash at mid
-$13,665
Margin change
+$275
Strikes
340C / -430P / +185P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$16,460
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,022 (+$837/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$3,849 (+$321/mo)
Restart odds
21% (keep 15%)
Value incl. income
-$5,324
Max loss from here
$12,695 (+$2,665)
CC-SS
$610.54 (now $611.72)
Net delta
+105 sh (now +105)
CSV ND after
264.65
Worst spread / min OI
14% / 1
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 340C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 430P (open)

LEAST MARGIN

Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$18,700
Margin change
+$168
Strikes
290C / -380P / +185P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$21,860
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,022 (+$837/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$3,865 (+$323/mo)
Restart odds
21% (keep 15%)
Value incl. income
-$10,251
Max loss from here
$12,730 (+$2,700)
CC-SS
$609.90 (now $611.72)
Net delta
+105 sh (now +105)
CSV ND after
315.00
Worst spread / min OI
19% / 1
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 290C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 380P (open)

LOWEST MAX LOSS

Smallest worst-case loss from here.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$16,595
Margin change
+$191
Strikes
310C / -400P / +185P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$19,550
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,022 (+$837/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$3,857 (+$322/mo)
Restart odds
21% (keep 15%)
Value incl. income
-$8,170
Max loss from here
$12,625 (+$2,595)
CC-SS
$610.23 (now $611.72)
Net delta
+105 sh (now +105)
CSV ND after
293.95
Worst spread / min OI
17% / 5
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 310C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 400P (open)

INCOME ENGINE

Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$18,180
Margin change
+$1,909
Strikes
190C / -430P / +185P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$21,260
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,043 (+$839/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$5,126 (+$428/mo)
Restart odds
24% (keep 15%)
Value incl. income
-$11,451
Max loss from here
$17,210 (+$7,180)
CC-SS
$568.48 (now $611.72)
Net delta
+125 sh (now +105)
CSV ND after
309.80
Worst spread / min OI
14% / 1
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 190C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 430P (open)

Side by side

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
KEEPheldJan 21 '28460540185-----15%-$10,030$611.72+105
BESTLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29310430185 (kept)-$14,195-$1,405+$514+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$4,060
+$339/mo
21%-$6,092$13,225$602.00+109
BEST WITH INCOMELEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29340430185 (kept)-$13,665-$1,405+$275+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,849
+$321/mo
21%-$5,324$12,695$610.54+105
MOST CASHLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29340430185 (kept)-$13,665-$1,405+$275+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,849
+$321/mo
21%-$5,324$12,695$610.54+105
LEAST MARGINLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29290380185 (kept)-$18,700-$1,405+$168+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,865
+$323/mo
21%-$10,251$12,730$609.90+105
LOWEST MAX LOSSLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29310400185 (kept)-$16,595-$1,405+$191+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,857
+$322/mo
21%-$8,170$12,625$610.23+105
INCOME ENGINELEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29190430185 (kept)-$18,180-$1,405+$1,909+$10,043
+$839/mo
+$5,126
+$428/mo
24%-$11,451$17,210$568.48+125
SAME STRIKESLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29340430185 (kept)-$13,665-$1,405+$275+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,849
+$321/mo
21%-$5,324$12,695$610.54+105

Cost of waiting

The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$14,195 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll onDays before expirySpot -30% ($174)Spot +0% ($249)Spot +30% ($324)
Today448--$14,195-
2027-10-2390-$14,046-$15,223-$16,073
2027-12-0745-$14,041-$15,343-$16,524

How much time to buy

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
Dec 15 '28LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28320410185 (kept)-$15,335-$1,225+$205+$9,106
+$841/mo
+$3,432
+$317/mo
20%-$7,659$12,365$610.08+105
Jan 19 '29LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29340430185 (kept)-$13,665-$1,405+$275+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,849
+$321/mo
21%-$5,324$12,695$610.54+105
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
1LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29340430185 (kept)-$13,665-$1,405+$275+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,849
+$321/mo
21%-$5,324$12,695$610.54+105
2LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29320430185 (kept)-$14,025-$1,405+$435+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,990
+$333/mo
21%-$5,843$13,055$604.84+108
3LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29310430185 (kept)-$14,195-$1,405+$514+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$4,060
+$339/mo
21%-$6,092$13,225$602.00+109
4LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29300430185 (kept)-$14,555-$1,405+$641+$10,023
+$837/mo
+$4,141
+$346/mo
21%-$6,578$13,585$598.93+110
5LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29290430185 (kept)-$14,780-$1,405+$734+$10,026
+$837/mo
+$4,224
+$353/mo
22%-$6,893$13,810$596.05+111
6LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29280430185 (kept)-$14,980-$1,405+$822+$10,028
+$838/mo
+$4,306
+$360/mo
22%-$7,179$14,010$593.19+113
7LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29320410185 (kept)-$15,625-$1,405+$246+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,853
+$322/mo
21%-$7,255$12,655$610.37+105
8LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29310410185 (kept)-$15,795-$1,405+$325+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,926
+$328/mo
21%-$7,503$12,825$607.45+106
9LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29270430185 (kept)-$15,335-$1,405+$946+$10,030
+$838/mo
+$4,389
+$367/mo
22%-$7,656$14,365$590.27+114
10LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29300410185 (kept)-$16,155-$1,405+$452+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$4,003
+$334/mo
21%-$7,989$13,185$604.32+107
11LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29260430185 (kept)-$15,580-$1,405+$1,046+$10,031
+$838/mo
+$4,475
+$374/mo
22%-$8,000$14,610$587.41+115
12LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29310400185 (kept)-$16,595-$1,405+$191+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,857
+$322/mo
21%-$8,170$12,625$610.23+105
13LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29290410185 (kept)-$16,380-$1,405+$545+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$4,075
+$340/mo
21%-$8,308$13,410$601.38+109
14LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29280410185 (kept)-$16,580-$1,405+$633+$10,024
+$837/mo
+$4,155
+$347/mo
21%-$8,595$13,610$598.44+110
15LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29300400185 (kept)-$16,955-$1,405+$318+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$3,935
+$329/mo
21%-$8,656$12,985$607.06+106
16LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29250430185 (kept)-$16,305-$1,405+$1,238+$10,033
+$838/mo
+$4,564
+$381/mo
22%-$8,916$15,335$584.67+116
17LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29240430185 (kept)-$16,280-$1,405+$1,288+$10,034
+$838/mo
+$4,658
+$389/mo
23%-$8,939$15,310$581.79+118
18LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29290400185 (kept)-$17,180-$1,405+$411+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$4,009
+$335/mo
21%-$8,974$13,210$604.08+107
19LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29270410185 (kept)-$16,935-$1,405+$757+$10,026
+$837/mo
+$4,241
+$354/mo
22%-$9,071$13,965$595.47+111
20LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29230430185 (kept)-$16,445-$1,405+$1,378+$10,035
+$838/mo
+$4,753
+$397/mo
23%-$9,193$15,475$578.84+119
21LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29280400185 (kept)-$17,380-$1,405+$500+$10,022
+$837/mo
+$4,081
+$341/mo
21%-$9,263$13,410$601.11+109
22LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29260410185 (kept)-$17,180-$1,405+$857+$10,028
+$838/mo
+$4,325
+$361/mo
22%-$9,413$14,210$592.54+113
23LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29220430185 (kept)-$16,830-$1,405+$1,506+$10,036
+$838/mo
+$4,844
+$405/mo
23%-$9,705$15,860$576.11+120
24LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29270400185 (kept)-$17,735-$1,405+$623+$10,024
+$837/mo
+$4,165
+$348/mo
21%-$9,739$13,765$598.11+110
25FULLJan 19 '29280430185-$19,050-+$758+$10,021
+$837/mo
+$3,681
+$307/mo
20%-$9,787$18,080$618.17+106
How this was built