+1 Jan 21 '28 460C-1 Jan 21 '28 540P+1 Jan 15 '27 185P448 days leftCSV ND 128.00entry $601 -57.9%CC-SS $615.10 (+143% vs spot)BE-SS $588.00 (+133% vs spot)
Spot
$252.83
CBOE 2026-10-30 01:23:13
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $6 of time value (30% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $12 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 14% of mid, open interest as low as 2): work the order at mid, never natural.
The best roll lowers the CC-SS from $615 to $611: covered calls can be written $4 closer to spot.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying⚔ HOLD AND FIGHT
Don't roll, don't close: holding and writing calls beats closing
Since 2026-05-31 it has banked $6,830, $1,348/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $552/mo against a $805/mo floor and a $1,610/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $615 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $528 (+109% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $782/mo at APP's realized keep of 86% (15 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $1,348/mo earned against a modelled $782/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $10,974 if you keep, $21,241 after the roll; safe calls alone: $1,683 vs $5,900. Odds safe calls restart: 16% vs 21%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $16,141.
The roll costs more (cash and margin) than the income its extra time is expected to bring.
Coverage Insights: write calls: today the 50% normal 300C offers $647/mo.
Earnings 2026-11-04 (6 days): sell no new income into it.
Holding to expiry instead (15 months, calls written all the way, FIGHT included): expected whole-life -$19,651 vs -$31,440 if closed today; 11% chance to finish at break-even or better; worst case -$41,470 (another $10,030 if the legs end at their worst and no call pays); 79% of the entry max loss ($48,300) is already taken.
Holding beats closing by about $4,510 on average, after charging it the $7,279 of margin a close would free: don't roll, don't close; keep writing calls.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$25,470
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$38,270
Max loss from here
$10,030
Margin it holds (model)
$7,279
a close frees it; $7,279 on all APP here
CC-SS
$615.10
safe call from $528
Net delta
+105 sh
notional $25,283
Theta
-$12/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$6.38
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$31,440
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$38,270
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$6,830
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$25,470
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$19,651
expected; -$31,440 if closed today
Chance of break-even
11%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$10,030
79% of the $48,300 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$41,470
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $7,279 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $4,510.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin
-$12,865
cash at mid today (natural -$15,660)
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29+12 months
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 340C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 440P (open)
Margin change
+$386
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$16,141
actual: $1,348 a month x 12 months; covers 563% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
16% → 21%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$12,895
+$2,865 vs keep
CC-SS
$611.31
now $615.10
CSV ND after
256.65
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 87% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $218 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$25,470. Wait for assignment: -$24,832 (the put spread -$28,207, plus the 460C you keep, worth $3,375). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $28,207 more ($282 a share). Basis 410.07; the 460C alone has CC-SS none ≤ 3x spot (now $615.10), break-even $870, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 300C (~0.30 delta) about $1,045 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $16,000 a cycle. The 460C loses about $223 a month to time.
Close the 460C at assignment, unless you want the upside bet.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-05-31
Banked since entry
$6,830
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,348/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$552/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$2,662
Jul 2026
May
Jun
$2,662
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
life pace $1,348/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$552/mo
BELOW DESIGN
floor $805
design $1,610
$552/mo earned pays the hedge but is under half of the $1,610/mo it is designed to earn
Scanner's best pick today
$647/mo
Banked so far
$6,830
Whole-life P/L
-$31,768
Time with a call written
56%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
77%
CBOE 30-day 82%
Regime
PULLBACK
RSI 32
Next earnings
2026-11-04
6 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$782/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 86% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $528
spot $253
Spot needs +109% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$10,974
Roll Jan 19 '29
$21,241
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
16%
Roll Jan 19 '29
21%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$1,683
Roll Jan 19 '29
$5,900
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$16,141
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$12,865
Margin change
+$386
Strikes
340C / -440P / +185P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$15,660
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,267 (+$857/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$4,217 (+$352/mo)
Restart odds
21% (keep 16%)
Value incl. income
-$4,389
Max loss from here
$12,895 (+$2,865)
CC-SS
$611.31 (now $615.10)
Net delta
+107 sh (now +105)
CSV ND after
256.65
Worst spread / min OI
14% / 2
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 340C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 440P (open)
BEST WITH INCOME
Cash + margin + the extra income the time buys, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also MOST CASHalso LOWEST MAX LOSSalso SAME STRIKES
Cash at mid
-$12,305
Margin change
+$198
Strikes
350C / -440P / +185P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$14,710
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,267 (+$857/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$4,121 (+$344/mo)
Restart odds
21% (keep 16%)
Value incl. income
-$3,641
Max loss from here
$12,335 (+$2,305)
CC-SS
$615.04 (now $615.10)
Net delta
+105 sh (now +105)
CSV ND after
251.05
Worst spread / min OI
8% / 2
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 350C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 440P (open)
LEAST MARGIN
Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$18,700
Margin change
+$177
Strikes
290C / -380P / +185P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$21,860
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,267 (+$857/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$4,161 (+$348/mo)
Restart odds
21% (keep 16%)
Value incl. income
-$10,014
Max loss from here
$12,730 (+$2,700)
CC-SS
$613.48 (now $615.10)
Net delta
+105 sh (now +105)
CSV ND after
315.00
Worst spread / min OI
19% / 1
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 290C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 380P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$17,680
Margin change
+$2,095
Strikes
185C / -440P / +185P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$20,860
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,405
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,364 (+$866/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$5,671 (+$474/mo)
Restart odds
24% (keep 16%)
Value incl. income
-$10,816
Max loss from here
$17,710 (+$7,680)
CC-SS
$569.01 (now $615.10)
Net delta
+126 sh (now +105)
CSV ND after
304.80
Worst spread / min OI
15% / 0
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 460C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 540P (close)
BUY 1 Jan 19 '29 185C (open)
SELL 1 Jan 19 '29 440P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
460
540
185
-
-
-
-
-
16%
-
$10,030
$615.10
+105
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
340
440
185 (kept)
-$12,865
-$1,405
+$386
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,217 +$352/mo
21%
-$4,389
$12,895
$611.31
+107
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
350
440
185 (kept)
-$12,305
-$1,405
+$198
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,121 +$344/mo
21%
-$3,641
$12,335
$615.04
+105
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
350
440
185 (kept)
-$12,305
-$1,405
+$198
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,121 +$344/mo
21%
-$3,641
$12,335
$615.04
+105
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
290
380
185 (kept)
-$18,700
-$1,405
+$177
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,161 +$348/mo
21%
-$10,014
$12,730
$613.48
+105
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
350
440
185 (kept)
-$12,305
-$1,405
+$198
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,121 +$344/mo
21%
-$3,641
$12,335
$615.04
+105
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
185
440
185 (kept)
-$17,680
-$1,405
+$2,095
+$10,364 +$866/mo
+$5,671 +$474/mo
24%
-$10,816
$17,710
$569.01
+126
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
350
440
185 (kept)
-$12,305
-$1,405
+$198
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,121 +$344/mo
21%
-$3,641
$12,335
$615.04
+105
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$12,865 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($177)
Spot +0% ($253)
Spot +30% ($329)
Today
448
-
-$12,865
-
2027-10-23
90
-$12,825
-$13,783
-$14,375
2027-12-07
45
-$12,818
-$13,899
-$14,809
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Dec 15 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
340
430
185 (kept)
-$13,370
-$1,225
+$250
+$9,329 +$862/mo
+$3,696 +$342/mo
21%
-$5,517
$12,400
$613.63
+105
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
350
440
185 (kept)
-$12,305
-$1,405
+$198
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,121 +$344/mo
21%
-$3,641
$12,335
$615.04
+105
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
350
440
185 (kept)
-$12,305
-$1,405
+$198
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,121 +$344/mo
21%
-$3,641
$12,335
$615.04
+105
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
340
440
185 (kept)
-$12,865
-$1,405
+$386
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,217 +$352/mo
21%
-$4,389
$12,895
$611.31
+107
3
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
320
440
185 (kept)
-$13,225
-$1,405
+$548
+$10,272 +$858/mo
+$4,377 +$366/mo
22%
-$4,906
$13,255
$605.70
+109
4
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
340
430
185 (kept)
-$13,665
-$1,405
+$292
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,146 +$346/mo
21%
-$5,094
$12,695
$614.10
+105
5
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
310
440
185 (kept)
-$13,395
-$1,405
+$627
+$10,275 +$858/mo
+$4,460 +$373/mo
22%
-$5,152
$13,425
$602.90
+110
6
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
320
430
185 (kept)
-$14,025
-$1,405
+$453
+$10,268 +$858/mo
+$4,295 +$359/mo
22%
-$5,615
$13,055
$608.43
+108
7
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
300
440
185 (kept)
-$13,755
-$1,405
+$754
+$10,277 +$858/mo
+$4,550 +$380/mo
22%
-$5,637
$13,785
$599.90
+111
8
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
310
430
185 (kept)
-$14,195
-$1,405
+$532
+$10,272 +$858/mo
+$4,380 +$366/mo
22%
-$5,861
$13,225
$605.60
+109
9
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
290
440
185 (kept)
-$13,980
-$1,405
+$847
+$10,279 +$858/mo
+$4,634 +$387/mo
22%
-$5,953
$14,010
$597.08
+113
10
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
280
440
185 (kept)
-$14,180
-$1,405
+$937
+$10,280 +$859/mo
+$4,729 +$395/mo
23%
-$6,242
$14,210
$594.26
+114
11
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
300
430
185 (kept)
-$14,555
-$1,405
+$659
+$10,275 +$858/mo
+$4,471 +$373/mo
22%
-$6,344
$13,585
$602.56
+110
12
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
290
430
185 (kept)
-$14,780
-$1,405
+$753
+$10,277 +$858/mo
+$4,555 +$380/mo
22%
-$6,660
$13,810
$599.70
+111
13
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
270
440
185 (kept)
-$14,535
-$1,405
+$1,060
+$10,280 +$859/mo
+$4,824 +$403/mo
23%
-$6,720
$14,565
$591.41
+115
14
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
280
430
185 (kept)
-$14,980
-$1,405
+$842
+$10,279 +$858/mo
+$4,642 +$388/mo
22%
-$6,948
$14,010
$596.85
+113
15
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
320
410
185 (kept)
-$15,625
-$1,405
+$234
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,150 +$347/mo
21%
-$6,997
$12,655
$613.93
+105
16
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
260
440
185 (kept)
-$14,780
-$1,405
+$1,161
+$10,280 +$859/mo
+$4,917 +$411/mo
23%
-$7,066
$14,810
$588.59
+116
17
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
310
410
185 (kept)
-$15,795
-$1,405
+$313
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,224 +$353/mo
21%
-$7,246
$12,825
$611.03
+106
18
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
270
430
185 (kept)
-$15,335
-$1,405
+$966
+$10,280 +$859/mo
+$4,739 +$396/mo
23%
-$7,426
$14,365
$593.97
+114
19
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
300
410
185 (kept)
-$16,155
-$1,405
+$440
+$10,269 +$858/mo
+$4,310 +$360/mo
22%
-$7,731
$13,185
$607.93
+107
20
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
260
430
185 (kept)
-$15,580
-$1,405
+$1,066
+$10,280 +$859/mo
+$4,833 +$404/mo
23%
-$7,771
$14,610
$591.12
+115
21
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
310
400
185 (kept)
-$16,595
-$1,405
+$191
+$10,267 +$857/mo
+$4,153 +$347/mo
21%
-$7,924
$12,625
$613.79
+105
22
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
250
440
185 (kept)
-$15,505
-$1,405
+$1,352
+$10,279 +$858/mo
+$5,005 +$418/mo
23%
-$7,982
$15,535
$585.94
+118
23
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
240
440
185 (kept)
-$15,480
-$1,405
+$1,403
+$10,285 +$859/mo
+$5,113 +$427/mo
23%
-$8,002
$15,510
$583.09
+119
24
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
290
410
185 (kept)
-$16,380
-$1,405
+$534
+$10,272 +$858/mo
+$4,398 +$367/mo
22%
-$8,046
$13,410
$605.01
+109
25
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
230
440
185 (kept)
-$15,645
-$1,405
+$1,494
+$10,292 +$860/mo
+$5,224 +$436/mo
23%
-$8,251
$15,675
$580.19
+120
How this was built
1133 rolls on the real strikes of Sep 15 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 112 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($588.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.27), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (77%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.