LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

BMNR · Main

+50 Jan 21 '28 25C-50 Jan 21 '28 18P448 days leftCSV ND 40.83entry $22 -8.7%BE-SS $65.83 (+228% vs spot)

Spot

$20.08

CBOE 2026-10-30 13:52:13

When to roll⏸ WAIT

Wait until 23 Oct 2027

448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.

Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).

Is the time worth buying▲ RECONSIDER

Engine stalled and time barely helps

Last 90 days earned $225/mo against a $4,902/mo floor and a $9,805/mo design.
No CC-SS within 3x spot: no covered call is safe at any strike today.
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,065/mo at BMNR's realized keep of 23% (18 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($225/mo earned vs $1,065/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $14,711 if you keep, $28,196 after the roll; safe calls alone: $0 vs $0. Odds safe calls restart: 0% vs 0%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $2,694.
The extra time is unlikely to restart the safe engine (or costs more than the income it adds): it mostly buys hope. Compare with FIGHT's ladder, a rebuild in Rolls, or closing.
Earnings 2026-11-20 (21 days): sell no new income into it.
Holding to expiry instead (15 months, calls written all the way, safe calls only): expected whole-life -$204,347 vs -$199,525 if closed today; 4% chance to finish at break-even or better; worst case -$294,150 (another $94,625 if the legs end at their worst and no call pays); 68% of the entry max loss ($294,150) is already taken.
Closing wins once the $54,540 of margin it frees is counted (holding's edge is -$4,822 on average): consider closing.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)

$4,625

Unrealized vs CSV ND

-$199,525

Max loss from here

$94,625

Margin it holds (model)

$54,540

a close frees it; $147,139 on all BMNR here

CC-SS

none ≤ 3x spot

safe call from -

Net delta

+4384 sh

notional $100,400

Theta

-$3/day

net of the three legs

Short put time value

$4.45

assignment LOW

If you close it today

Whole-life P/L

-$199,525

legs + call income, all in

Legs vs entry

-$199,525

close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND

Call income banked

no history

Cash to close today

+$4,625

legs at mid + call buyback +$0

If you hold to expiry instead

Whole-life P/L at expiry

-$204,347

expected; -$199,525 if closed today

Chance of break-even

whole-life P/L at or above zero

Max loss left

$94,625

68% of the $294,150 at entry already taken

Worst case if held

-$294,150

legs at their worst, no call income

No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $54,540 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $59,363.

Hold

No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls

No roll's actual income ($225 a month, last 90 days (no entry date on the sheet)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.

If you're assigned

Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 30% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $6 in 6 months..
Close everything now: +$4,625. Wait for assignment: +$37,275 (the put spread +$10,400, plus the 25C you keep, worth $26,875). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): -$10,400 more (-$2 a share). Basis 38.75; the 25C alone has CC-SS none ≤ 3x spot (now none ≤ 3x spot), break-even $64, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 25C (at or above the call) about $3,125 a cycle; a 24C (~0.30 delta) about $3,875 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $5,000 a cycle. The 25C loses about $975 a month to time.
Ride the 25C: safe calls out-earn its decay.

Income outlook

Last 90 days vs design

$225/mo

floor $4,902

design $9,805

Time with a call written

Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30

Market now

Call IV (~35d)

104%

CBOE 30-day 76%

Regime

NEUTRAL

RSI 46

Next earnings

2026-11-20

21 days

FIGHT rate (model)

$1,065/mo

~0.30-delta calls x 23% keep

What the time buys

Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)

Keep Jan 21 '28

$14,711

Roll Jan 19 '29

$28,196

Odds safe calls start paying before expiry

Keep Jan 21 '28

Roll Jan 19 '29

Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)

Keep Jan 21 '28

Roll Jan 19 '29

Months bought

Worth at the record's pace

$2,694

Engine state

STALLED

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).

FULLJan 19 '29

Cash at mid

-$5,250

Margin change

+$3,522

Strikes

25C / -18P / -

Cash at natural

-$9,500

Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)

+$13,485 (+$1,126/mo)

Extra safe income (model)

+$0 (+$0/mo)

Restart odds

0% (keep 0%)

Value incl. income

+$4,713

Max loss from here

$99,875 (+$5,250)

CC-SS

none ≤ 3x spot (now none ≤ 3x spot)

Net delta

+4654 sh (now +4384)

CSV ND after

41.88

Worst spread / min OI

8% / 229

Danger point

none to -60% (now none to -60%)

Order legs

SELL 50 Jan 21 '28 25C (close)

BUY 50 Jan 21 '28 18P (close)

BUY 50 Jan 19 '29 25C (open)

SELL 50 Jan 19 '29 18P (open)

Side by side

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh
KEEP	held	Jan 21 '28	25	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	-	$94,625	none ≤ 3x spot	+4384
SAME STRIKES	FULL	Jan 19 '29	25	18	-	-$5,250	-	+$3,522	+$13,485 +$1,126/mo	+$0 +$0/mo	0%	+$4,713	$99,875	none ≤ 3x spot	+4654

Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh

How this was built

59 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($65.83), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.24), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (104%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.