+25 Jan 15 '27 35C77 days leftCSV ND 2.87entry $20 +0.4%CC-SS $32.90 (+64% vs spot)BE-SS $37.87 (+89% vs spot)
Spot
$20.08
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:52:13
When to roll! ROLL WINDOW
Inside the 90-day roll window
77 days left: inside the 90-day roll window. Roll on a good day for the price (a bounce makes the roll cheaper) before 45 days are left.
Holding as is costs about $23 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY
Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery
Last 90 days earned $112/mo against a $120/mo floor and a $239/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $33 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $26 (+32% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $532/mo at BMNR's realized keep of 23% (18 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($112/mo earned vs $532/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 24 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $1,930 if you keep, $48,487 after the roll; safe calls alone: $1,695 vs $46,424. Odds safe calls restart: 29% vs 100%.
At the record's pace the extra 24 months are worth about $2,720.
Even after the roll the odds are only 100%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.
Earnings 2026-11-20 (21 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
$837
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$6,338
Max loss from here
$837
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$689
a close frees it; model $995; $147,139 on all BMNR here
CC-SS
$32.90
safe call from $26
Net delta
+277 sh
notional $50,200
Theta
-$23/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
-
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$6,338
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$6,338
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
-
no history
Cash to close today
+$837
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$4,471
expected; -$6,338 if closed today
Chance of break-even
4%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$837
88% of the $7,175 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$7,175
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 15 '27 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $995 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $872.
Income outlook
Last 90 days vs design
$112/mo
floor $120
design $239
Time with a call written
0%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
104%
CBOE 30-day 76%
Regime
NEUTRAL
RSI 46
Next earnings
2026-11-20
21 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$532/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 23% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $26
spot $20
Spot needs +32% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 15 '27
$1,930
Roll Jan 19 '29
$48,487
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 15 '27
29%
Roll Jan 19 '29
100%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 15 '27
$1,695
Roll Jan 19 '29
$46,424
Months bought
24
Worth at the record's pace
$2,720
Engine state
STALLED
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$14,100
Margin change
+$12,833
Strikes
35C / - / -
Cash at natural
-$14,950
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$46,557 (+$1,926/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$44,729 (+$1,850/mo)
Restart odds
100% (keep 29%)
Value incl. income
+$19,624
Max loss from here
$14,938 (+$14,100)
CC-SS
$24.82 (now $32.90)
Net delta
+1436 sh (now +277)
CSV ND after
8.51
Worst spread / min OI
11% / 918
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 25 Jan 15 '27 35C (close)
BUY 25 Jan 19 '29 35C (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 15 '27
35
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
29%
-
$837
$32.90
+277
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Jan 19 '29
35
-
-
-$14,100
-
+$12,833
+$46,557 +$1,926/mo
+$44,729 +$1,850/mo
100%
+$19,624
$14,938
$24.82
+1436
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
How this was built
3 rolls on the real strikes of Jan 21 '28, Jun 16 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($37.87), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.24), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (104%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.