LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

BMNR · Main

+25 Jan 15 '27 35C77 days leftCSV ND 2.87entry $20 +2.0%CC-SS $33.04 (+62% vs spot)BE-SS $37.87 (+86% vs spot)
Spot
$20.39
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:23:15
When to roll! ROLL WINDOW
Inside the 90-day roll window
  • 77 days left: inside the 90-day roll window. Roll on a good day for the price (a bounce makes the roll cheaper) before 45 days are left.
  • Holding as is costs about $26 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Is the time worth buying▲ RECONSIDER
Engine stalled and time barely helps
  • Last 90 days earned $112/mo against a $120/mo floor and a $239/mo design.
  • Safe calls (at or above the $33 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $29 (+42% from here).
  • FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $375/mo at BMNR's realized keep of 23% (18 closed calls).
  • The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($112/mo earned vs $375/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
  • Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 24 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $967 if you keep, $31,078 after the roll; safe calls alone: $304 vs $28,757. Odds safe calls restart: 6% vs 61%.
  • At the record's pace the extra 24 months are worth about $2,720.
  • The extra time is unlikely to restart the safe engine (or costs more than the income it adds): it mostly buys hope. Compare with FIGHT's ladder, a rebuild in Rolls, or closing.
  • Earnings 2026-11-20 (22 days): sell no new income into it.
  • Holding to expiry instead (3 months, calls written all the way, safe calls only): expected whole-life -$6,750 vs -$6,100 if closed today; 1% chance to finish at break-even or better; worst case -$7,175 (another $1,075 if the legs end at their worst and no call pays); 85% of the entry max loss ($7,175) is already taken.
  • Closing wins once the $856 of margin it frees is counted (holding's edge is -$650 on average): consider closing.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)
$1,075
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$6,100
Max loss from here
$1,075
Margin it holds (model)
$856
a close frees it; $146,855 on all BMNR here
CC-SS
$33.04
safe call from $29
Net delta
+337 sh
notional $50,975
Theta
-$26/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
-
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$6,100
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$6,100
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
-
no history
Cash to close today
+$1,075
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$6,750
expected; -$6,100 if closed today
Chance of break-even
1%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$1,075
85% of the $7,175 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$7,175
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 15 '27 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $856 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $1,506.

Income outlook

Last 90 days vs design
$112/mo
floor $120
design $239
Time with a call written
0%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
67%
CBOE 30-day 73%
Regime
NEUTRAL
RSI 49
Next earnings
2026-11-20
22 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$375/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 23% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $29
spot $20
Spot needs +42% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 15 '27
$967
Roll Jan 19 '29
$31,078
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 15 '27
6%
Roll Jan 19 '29
61%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 15 '27
$304
Roll Jan 19 '29
$28,757
Months bought
24
Worth at the record's pace
$2,720
Engine state
STALLED

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$15,862
Margin change
+$12,866
Strikes
35C / - / -
Cash at natural
-$16,750
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$30,111 (+$1,245/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$28,453 (+$1,177/mo)
Restart odds
61% (keep 6%)
Value incl. income
+$1,383
Max loss from here
$16,938 (+$15,862)
CC-SS
$24.96 (now $33.04)
Net delta
+1494 sh (now +337)
CSV ND after
9.21
Worst spread / min OI
10% / 908
Danger point
-26% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 25 Jan 15 '27 35C (close)
BUY 25 Jan 19 '29 35C (open)

Side by side

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
KEEPheldJan 15 '2735-------6%-$1,075$33.04+337
SAME STRIKESFULLJan 19 '2935---$15,862-+$12,866+$30,111
+$1,245/mo		+$28,453
+$1,177/mo		61%+$1,383$16,938$24.96+1494
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
How this was built