+25 Jan 21 '28 17C-25 Jan 21 '28 17P+25 Jan 21 '28 10P448 days leftCSV ND 3.74entry $17 -53.1%CC-SS $18.26 (+129% vs spot)BE-SS $20.74 (+160% vs spot)
Spot
$7.97
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:38:25
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $1 of time value (80% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $8 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying▲ RECONSIDER
Engine stalled and time barely helps
Since 2026-06-18 it has banked -$1,950, -$437/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $0/mo against a $448/mo floor and a $895/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $18 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $15 (+85% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $635/mo at whole book's realized keep of 71% (664 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($0/mo earned vs $635/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $9,660 if you keep, $19,967 after the roll; safe calls alone: $4,047 vs $11,557. Odds safe calls restart: 26% vs 28%.
The extra time is unlikely to restart the safe engine (or costs more than the income it adds): it mostly buys hope. Compare with FIGHT's ladder, a rebuild in Rolls, or closing.
Earnings 2026-11-24 (26 days): sell no new income into it.
Holding to expiry instead (15 months, calls written all the way, safe calls only): expected whole-life -$18,956 vs -$21,650 if closed today; 8% chance to finish at break-even or better; worst case -$28,800 (another $7,150 if the legs end at their worst and no call pays); 73% of the entry max loss ($26,850) is already taken.
Closing wins once the $4,626 of margin it frees is counted (holding's edge is +$2,694 on average): consider closing.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$10,350
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$19,700
Max loss from here
$7,150
Margin it holds (model)
$4,626
a close frees it; $4,626 on all CLSK here
CC-SS
$18.26
safe call from $15
Net delta
+1672 sh
notional $19,925
Theta
-$8/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$0.54
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$21,650
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$19,700
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
-$1,950
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$10,350
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$18,956
expected; -$21,650 if closed today
Chance of break-even
8%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$7,150
73% of the $26,850 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$28,800
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $4,626 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $1,932.
Hold
No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls
No roll's actual income ($0 a month, life to date (134 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds.
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 79% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $5 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$10,350. Wait for assignment: -$8,988 (the put spread -$12,700, plus the 17C you keep, worth $3,713). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $12,700 more ($5 a share). Basis 8.82; the 17C alone has CC-SS $20.31 (now $18.26), break-even $26, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 10C (~0.30 delta) about $1,000 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $17,500 a cycle. The 17C loses about $240 a month to time.
Close the 17C at assignment, unless you want the upside bet.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-06-18
Banked since entry
-$1,950
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
-$437/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$0/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$0
Jun 2026
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$0/mo
floor $448
design $895
Banked so far
-$1,950
Time with a call written
0%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
101%
CBOE 30-day 94%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 36
Next earnings
2026-11-24
26 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$635/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 71% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $15
spot $8
Spot needs +85% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$9,660
Roll Jan 19 '29
$19,967
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
26%
Roll Jan 19 '29
28%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$4,047
Roll Jan 19 '29
$11,557
Months bought
12
Engine state
STALLED
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
+$425
Margin change
+$1,436
Strikes
17C / -17P / +8P
Cash at natural
-$3,050
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,307 (+$861/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$7,510 (+$627/mo)
Restart odds
28% (keep 26%)
Value incl. income
+$9,296
Max loss from here
$11,725 (+$4,575)
CC-SS
$17.37 (now $18.26)
Net delta
+2074 sh (now +1672)
CSV ND after
3.57
Worst spread / min OI
21% / 0
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 25 Jan 21 '28 17C (close)
BUY 25 Jan 21 '28 17P (close)
SELL 25 Jan 21 '28 10P (close)
BUY 25 Jan 19 '29 17C (open)
SELL 25 Jan 19 '29 17P (open)
BUY 25 Jan 19 '29 8P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
17
17
10
-
-
-
-
-
26%
-
$7,150
$18.26
+1672
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Jan 19 '29
17
17
8
+$425
-
+$1,436
+$10,307 +$861/mo
+$7,510 +$627/mo
28%
+$9,296
$11,725
$17.37
+2074
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
How this was built
36 rolls on the real strikes of Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($20.74), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.27), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (101%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.